Jay Bruce is the hottest hitter in the National League

by boobs on May 24, 2011 2:36 PM EDT

When the Reds lost to the Phillies 10-3 on Monday -- it would have been the worst game of the season had they not just lost 12-4 to the Indians -- Jay Bruce provided at least some hope for fans, going 3 for 4 with a three-run home run. It seems like he's been hedging a lot of our misery lately, and that's because he has. By my count he's the hottest full-time player in the league over the past month or so, or the second half of the season already played.

Allowing for just a little bit of selective endpointing, Bruce is doing this since the Reds' April 27 win over Milwaukee:

Batting .337, .406 on-base, .709 slugging percentage, 1.116 OPS. Nine home runs, 20 RBIs in 22 games started. A sustainable .328 BABIP.

Among the league's leaders in the MVP categories, no one really comes close to this production over that span. Check this:

Since April 27	GS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
Jay Bruce	22	.337	.406	.709	1.116	9	20
Lance Berkman	20	.293	.470	.586	1.056	5	19
Matt Holliday	24	.311	.380	.511	.891	4	20
Joey Votto	23	.282	.396	.447	.843	2	16
Prince Fielder	25	.226	.327	.505	.832	7	14
Matt Kemp	24	.244	.333	.465	.798	6	15
Ryan Braun	25	.240	.318	.438	.755	3	16

The caveats:

1) As I said, there's some selective endpointing. The results wouldn't look the same if I went back to, say, April 18. Bruce has an OPS of .647 in games before April 27.

2) This isn't a comprehensive list of the players hitting the best since April 27. It's more a look at the best players for the whole season up to now, then examining how they've done so far. There might be one or two regulars who are hitting better than Bruce over the last month, but I haven't found one yet.

3) Jay Bruce has had similar streaks in his career, and he's unlikely to keep up such a hot pace.

4) Even if he does, and the Reds keep sucking, he will not be an MVP candidate.

5) I'm not using very exotic stats, just familiar ones. In WAR, for instance, Bruce is currently just 20th in the league over the whole season, and I don't know how to check over just the last month. Votto leads the NL in WAR.

6) This list does not include Albert Pujols, because he sucks right now.

Still, it's pretty amazing to me that, stacked up against the best hitters perennially in the National League, Bruce tops them in almost every category. Lance Berkman's .470 on-base percentage is the only number higher than Bruce's in ANYTHING. He'll probably go 0 for 4 in his next five games, but still, I found this stuff worth noting.

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Comments

.843 OPS?? 2 HRs?? $39 million over 3 years??

Votto sucks! Trade him!

No problem, fuckweasel! - jch24

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on May 24, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions

His WAR's down because of his defensive numbers

Very SSS for defense, but he does seem not as with it in the outfield compared to last year.

by ken on May 24, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

he's made a lot of simple mistakes

misplaying a routine ground ball, bobbling the ball out of his glove, misplaying a ball of the wall, etc. All correctable though maybe just a slight lack of focus. dudes probably been working on his offensive game pretty hard, so perhaps he hasn’t been focusing on his D as much.

by pack_fan on May 24, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Jay Bruce

It makes me happier to see him do well than almost any other player.

by Brendanukkah on May 24, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

I agree!

Except for me it’s not almost. I want to see him succeed more than any other Reds player ever.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 25, 2011 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd venture that JB will be among the top 10 most popular Reds players of all time

I do a lot of stupid shit, but I'm not an idiot. - JCH24

by johnu1 on May 24, 2011 4:20 PM EDT reply actions

He's got to win over the announcers first

Dunn should have been much more popular than he was. Good, affable player. But the announcers didn’t like his schtick, so he left town with a split fanbase. I won’t say he was unpopular, but he should have been more popular. The announcers could have made him more popular. It’s amazing how much their attitude toward a player can affect how a large portion of the fanbase views that player.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds and The MSP Reds Annual today!

by Slyde on May 24, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Dunn is incredibly unpopular

I don’t know one Reds fan outside of RR who even thinks he’s good.

BTW, when Marty and Brantley were going on about Dunn again the other day, it kinda got me thinking. They contend, flat-out, that Dunn was lazy in left field. He could have been an average fielder but chose to give minimal effort on defense. What if that’s true? I’ve always defended him against that claim, but I don’t really know. It’s true that his defense detracted from his value, and if it’s true that he wasn’t really giving his top effort and could have saved his team 10 runs a year or something by busting it, could we really blame fans for disliking him?

Retractions are for journalists! -Gray

by boobs on May 24, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I still see Dunn jerseys at the park

I think there is vocal group of anti-Dunn, but they are matched in size by the vocal pro-Dunn group. I feel like there are as many people that blindly defend Dunn as there are that blindly bash him. I think people in the middle just wish the team had been better.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds and The MSP Reds Annual today!

by Slyde on May 24, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I really don't want to see Jay suffer the same fate as Dunner

Can you send Welsh a text about how totally sweet he is?

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 24, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Slyde is becoming part of the machine he use to rage against.

"If I am a high school teacher preparing to gang bang the senior class."-Johnu1

by Yossarian22 on May 25, 2011 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm fighting the good fight, my man

I’ll keep hammering away on it.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds and The MSP Reds Annual today!

by Slyde on May 25, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Bruce has won the first battle

By signing long-term and looking good (appearance) when he did it.
He looks like the guy you’d let your daughter date.
And his frequent home runs will keep the rest of the chicks hot, since they dig the long ball.
Bruce needs to stay healthy, not give the Griffey performance of being really great when he’s able to play.
So far, so good. If the team keeps winning, Bruce will get due credit from the booth. His popularity will grow. The Reds can promote him that way as the face of the franchise. It’s been done before.

I do a lot of stupid shit, but I'm not an idiot. - JCH24

by johnu1 on May 25, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

do you think that the lean years hurt our feeling towards dunn?

would we have tolerated or even loved him more if he were here last year/this year? a part me thinks of dunn/griffey when someone mentions 02-09.

"And a high fly ball to center field. He hit it a ton. And the 2010 National League Central Division Champs are the Cincinnati Reds!"

by joshuar9476 on May 24, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

It's because he was the best offensive player on those poor teams

If Dunn had a Joey Votto the haters would have been easier on him and the team would have been better to boot.

by Red Menace on May 25, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I really don't understand this.

I mean, what I don’t understand is why the announcers don’t like him. They clearly recognize he’s one of the better defensive RFers out there. Surely they realize he’s only 24 and already has almost 100 homers.

Is it just a clutch hits thing? Does he need a few more game winning hits like last night?

I mean, we’re talking about a guy who has the third highest starter OPS on the team (second if you don’t count Ramon), had the third highest starter OPS last year too, and is a very good defender. I don’t get it.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 25, 2011 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Last night before he banged that game-winner

Thom was making it perfectly clear that this was a big opportunity for redemption since he struck out earlier in the game in a big spot. And that he was 1-20 with 2 outs and RISP so far this season. So yeah, I think it’s gotta be a clutch thing.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 25, 2011 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Makes plenty of sense

Even before last night he was in the top 10 in RBIs, but why look at that when you can zero in on a meaningless split?

Reminds me of how Marty described Hanigan over the past two years. Hanigan didn’t hit well with RISP in ’09 but started driving in more runs last year. Marty labored to explain how Hanigan had put in extra work over the winter to focus on run production. Whatever. Hanigan was a good hitter in ’09 who had 57 mediocre PAs with RISP. He was an even better hitter in ’10 without the glaring RISP dip. Those early RISP PAs carried way too much weight, but I guess the transformation of Hanigan into Clutch God helped fill some air time.

by ken on May 25, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

SSS, but tHom can shut the fuck up about Bruce's clutch skills.

"If I am a high school teacher preparing to gang bang the senior class."-Johnu1

by Yossarian22 on May 25, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

I want a 20'x10' poster of that picture.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on May 25, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a very big poster

You must have a very big locker.

by Brendanukkah on May 25, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude, he's a senior

You can’t talk to him unless he talks to you or you could get beat up!

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 25, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

and you better not mess with him!

Retractions are for journalists! -Gray

by boobs on May 25, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Jesus!

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 25, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Fucking Christ

he could have killed that kid.

"If I am a high school teacher preparing to gang bang the senior class."-Johnu1

by Yossarian22 on May 25, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

that kid had it coming

Retractions are for journalists! -Gray

by boobs on May 25, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

i wasn't making a morale judgment

"If I am a high school teacher preparing to gang bang the senior class."-Johnu1

by Yossarian22 on May 25, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Have you watched any of the interviews with either boy?

Kind of sad. Bullying is bad in the US, but it’s way, way worse in the UK.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 25, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

have you watched any of the videos?

that is in Australia.

"If I am a high school teacher preparing to gang bang the senior class."-Johnu1

by Yossarian22 on May 25, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah i've watched all the interviews

that other kid tried to say the fat was bullying him first. bull shit.

Retractions are for journalists! -Gray

by boobs on May 25, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

as with dunn, this is an expectations thing

bruce was expected to come up & set the world on fire. unfortunately, while he has been good, he’s had growing pains. it doesn’t help, that someone more lightly regarded than him has come up & won an mvp.

bruce is young & he’ll be a very good player, but it seems unlikely he’ll live up to the lofty expectations (as a red) that the fans, organization & announcers placed upon him prior to ever playing a major league game. he’s fighting an uphill battle & i’m not sure it’s one that can be won. in order for everyone to love him as he should, he’s going to have to match joey votto in production.

it doesn’t help that he appears to have started this season out of shape.

Operation: 'tHan's Awesome Plan is living up to its name.

by 'tHan on May 25, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions

As a corollary

I think, as it was with Dunn, the focus (from Thom, anyway) is on what he doesn’t do rather than what he does do. He’s been streaky, which is more frustrating than consistency (though not necessarily less good). He hasn’t been as good with RISP (.743 OPS as opposed to an .810 career line), and he strikes out “too much”. Of course, none of this outweighs the fact that he’s been a 10 WAR player over his first 400 games, but perception is what it is.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 25, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I think these two points are it

The expectations are high for Bruce, and they’ve gotten even higher now that he has a big dollar amount attached to his name (nevermind that the money is likely cheaper than they would’ve paid year-to-year). And there seems to be a lot of focus on what he doesn’t do well. If you evaluate any player in that sort of light, you’re always going to have a negatively skewed view of that player.

FWIW, I think you can tell from the broadcast that they do appreciate that Bruce is an excellent defender and a very good base runner. They mention quite frequently that Bruce may have deserved a Gold Glove last season. I think they just have too high of expectations for what he should be doing at the plate, and like tHan said, it doesn’t help that Votto shows you what is possible at the plate every night, even if only a few players in the game can do it.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds and The MSP Reds Annual today!

by Slyde on May 25, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you and 'tHan both hit the nail on the head.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 25, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

When I came here, I hated the guy. That was all from what announcers said about him. Announcers are a lot of peoples’ first and/or only source on players.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 25, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions