The turtle begins to preview the draft.

by Thundering Turtle on May 13, 2011 10:36 AM EDT

Ah, late May, when the turtle pops out his head from his shell in anticipation of the MLB Draft. Let’s kick off some draft coverage today with a look at the selection history of Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty.

Cincinnati selects 27th in the first round of this year’s spectacular, which runs from June 6-8. The Reds haven’t picked this late in a draft since 1995 when they chose RHP Brett Tomko of Florida Southern with the 54th selection. Tomko, though, was a second-rounder. Cincinnati hasn’t picked this late in the first round since taking OF Pat Watkins out of East Carolina in 1993.

Some early mock drafts are all over the place as to whom Walt Jocketty and company might choose. Connecticut OF George Springer, Texas A&M RHP John Stilson, North Carolina SS Levi Michael and Hawaii 2B Kolten Wong are some of the players speculated as Jocketty’s choice out of a draft that experts consider the most talent-laden and deepest since 2005.

Does a look at Jocketty’s draft history offer a clue as to which way he might go? Well, he’s never picked a third baseman or a left-handed pitcher with his first selection. Other than that, Jocketty has been all over the board. His most-popular choice is a right-handed pitcher, which he has taken seven times. Three times Jocketty has chosen an outfielder. Three times he nabbed a shortstop and twice a catcher. Jocketty also selected one first baseman.

While the scouting director has great input and near total control through most of the draft, the top choice is on the GM. Jocketty appears to prefer college talent, taking a high schooler just five times. Of those five, two – Daric Barton and Colby Rasmus – have reached the majors. Eight of Jocketty’s 11 college picks have reached the big leagues.

Jocketty led off like Pete Rose, spraying hits all over:

1995: Matt Morris-RHP-Seton Hall. Morris went 121-92 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 big league seasons before hanging it up in 2008.

1996: Braden Looper-RHP-Wichita State. Looper went 72-65 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 big league seasons through 2009.

1997: Adam Kennedy-SS-Cal State-Northridge. In 13 MLB seasons, Kennedy has 74 home runs, 525 RBI and a slash line of .275/.329/.387, with 171 stolen bases while wielding a strong glove.

1998: J.D. Drew-OF-Florida State. Though oft-injured, Drew has a solid 240 homers, 781 RBI and a line of .280/.387/.496 through 14 MLB seasons.

From there, Jocketty turned into Jonny Gomes, following a hot streak with a frustrating slump:

1999: Chance Caple-RHP-Texas A&M. Injuries limited Caple to just 287 minor league innings, none above High-A. He was out of baseball by 2004.

2000: Shaun Boyd-OF-Vista HS. In 2006 reached AAA, where he batted a miserable .188 before going off to indy ball.

2001: Justin Pope-RHP-Central Florida. Dealt to the Yankees with Ben Julianel for Sterling Hitchcock in 2003, Pope never made it past AAA before hanging it up after the 2008 season.

2002: Cal Hayes-SS-East Rowan HS. In fairness, the Cardinals didn’t have a pick until the third round. Hayes flamed out in High-A ball in 2006.

Jocketty then made a comeback reminiscent of Josh Hamilton:

2003: Daric Barton-C-Marina HS. A key component in the Mark Mulder trade, Barton moved to first base and has posted a four-year line of 26-142-.256/.366/.389 in 1,384 at bats with Oakland.

2004: Chris Lambert-RHP-Boston College. Lambert has logged 14 MLB innings with the Tigers and Orioles since 2008.

2005: Colby Rasmus-CF-Russell County HS. Rasmus is playing solid ball as a starter with the Cardinals, posting a line of 42-133-.268/.342/.485 in 1,075 at bats over three seasons.

2006: Adam Ottavino-RHP-Northeastern. Ottavino received a five-game cup of coffee last season and scuffled his way to an 8.46 ERA. He’s currently in AAA.

2007: Pete Kozma-SS-Owasso HS. Kozma, 23, has reached AAA, where he has a line of 0-10-.192/258/.225 this season..

Jocketty then pulled a Dmitri Young, prospering after coming to the Reds from the Cardinals:

2008: Yonder Alonso-1B-Miami. Alonso has a 28-140-.295/.370/.468 line in four minor league seasons and currently is tearing it up in AAA. He received a 29-at bat cup of coffee last season.

2009: Mike Leake-RHP-Arizona State. Leake has an 11-6 record with a 4.55 ERA without spending a day in the minor leagues.

2010: Yasmani Grandal-C-Miami. Grandal is off to a solid start, batting 8-23-.287/.422/.565 in High-A ball of the hitter-friendly California League. He’s walked (25) nearly as often as he’s struck out (28).

What does this tell us?

Jocketty isn’t afraid of taking a cold-weather pitcher (Morris, Lambert, Ottavino)

and drafts from the South, West, Southwest and Northeast fairly evenly.

Jocketty rarely misses when selecting 12th or higher, snagging Morris, Looper, Drew, Hayes, Alonso, Leake and Grandal in that range. Boyd, however, was a 13th pick. As for producing big leaguers, Jocketty has batted .600 when drafting 27th or later, snaring Barton, Rasmus and Ottavino, while whiffing on Caple and Pope.

Five position players – Kennedy, Drew, Barton, Rasmus and Alonso – made the big leagues, as did five pitchers – Morris, Looper, Lambert, Leake and Ottavino.

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Comments

Thanks for this Turtle! I look forward to more great analysis in the coming weeks!

I for one hope they take a college pitcher. There are a lot of young, high upside arms in the system, but no one close.

I’d take an Alex Wimmers type from last year. A guy with a ceiling as a #3 but who is polished and figures to move quickly. The great thing about this draft is that it is soooo deep, espeically with college arms, that Walt/Chris Buckley should be able to find a good value at 27.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2011 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks! This draft is so deep in pitching

that there is a line of thought that a club might want to target bats early with the angle that they can get a pitcher of first-round caliber as late as the third round. Interesting, but I don’t know that I’d roll the dice that way unless I had multiple early selections, which the Reds don’t.

I expect we’ll hear the “best player available” song, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I wonder if the Reds, who haven’t been shy about spending money, might go over slot for a player who drops because of signability concerns? Could be interesting.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 13, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

How much influence does Jocketty have after pick 1?

I know you touched on it above, but is it all Buckley, or whoever is in charge, after the first round?
How long has this Buckley guy been around?

by JPGs on May 13, 2011 11:00 AM EDT reply actions

He's been the Reds scouting director since 2007

Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."

by ChiDa on May 13, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Buckley most of the way.

Jocketty has the final say, of course, but most GMs defer to the scouting director after the first pick, or first few picks if a team has multiple choices.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 13, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

So really, we have Buckley to thank for quite a few guys.

LeCure, Ondrusek, J. Smith (who will probably still be good or a good trade chip), Heisey? Others? We have good scouts.

by jsl413 on May 13, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Stubbs and Valaika in 2007

Jordan Smith was drafted in 2006; LeCure and Ondrusek were drafted in 2005

Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."

by ChiDa on May 13, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Or rather 2006...conflicting reports on Buckley - I've seen 2006 and 2007

So he did draft Smith in 2006

Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."

by ChiDa on May 13, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

It was 2006

Krivsky hired him pretty soon after his own hiring. Kriv was deferential to Buckley’s judgments, going so far as saying that he would “leave the final decision [on the draft] to Chris Buckley and his staff.”

by ken on May 13, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Have you thought about looking back 4-5 years at what you thought of the guys in the draft and how accurate you've been?

That would be neat.

by jsl413 on May 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions

I'll do that. I kind of do it for myself

but it would be fun to publish. I’ve done it with first-rounders, looking at who the Reds picked and adding who I would have chosen. It’s fun. Thanks for the kind words.

I remember when the Reds took Billy Hamilton and I didn’t much care for the choice. I remember thinking, “too small, too much projection, not enough of a proven bat. Speed will have to carry him.” It’s fun to look back.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 13, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah that Hamilton pick was risky, and its worked out ok (so far at least)

they went with two floor players with Leake and Boxberger, so they went high ceiling with their next pick

by pack_fan on May 13, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, you're awesome. I love this every year.

by jsl413 on May 13, 2011 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

great stuff, per the usual

this draft is supposedly very pitching rich, like so rich some third rounders might be first round talent in other years (or so I’ve heard). I think the two strategies I would employ would be take a bat in the first and pitching for 3 or 4 rounds after, or go all pitching for 4 rounds and hope one or even two emerge from that group. I dont know a ton about these guys, but both Springer and Wong sound intriguing, I could see neither falling to the Reds. should be interesting to see where the Reds go this year picking so late, but I think they will go college pitcher in the first, with a-plenty of pitchers taken after that as well.

by pack_fan on May 13, 2011 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

Grumble Grumble toil and Trumble

whatever happened to the Cheerleader draft Dr. Turtle…

Ha. this stuff is great so glad so see you back on RR.

MADS and ASH - Taking out the Trash - 2012

by Madville on May 13, 2011 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

Ah, Maddy.

The research is exhausting, carefully reviewing the various cheerleaders. I’m really taking one for the team, here.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 15, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

You kill me Turtle!

MADS and ASH - Taking out the Trash - 2012

by Madville on May 17, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

yay! this is always such a pleasant surprise!

"I slyde my boehner into sexsalad...."
Sounds like a johnu1 production. --jch24

by GrooveLeg on May 14, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

I think we'd love to hear a bit about what you've been up to with the Pirates organization too if you have some extra time at some point!

Great to see you back, I always love this series. Really gears up my excitement for the draft!

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 15, 2011 1:43 AM EDT reply actions

I really enjoy being the chaplain for the West Virginia Power.

Jameson Taillon, last year’s No. 2 overall pick, is on the ballclub, as is Zack Von Rosenberg. Those are two very highly regarded pitchers. I have a nice bunch of guys. We’ve had 15-plus for chapel each Sunday. On Sundays I do three chapels — for the home team, the visitors and the umpires. I thoroughly enjoy it.

Bryce Harper was in town a couple of weeks back with Hagerstown. Have mercy, what a talent. If he’s not in AA by season’s end, I’ll be amazed. We see a lot of talented players come through here. I meet quite a few former big leaguers who are coaches in the SALLY League. Benny Distefano of the Savannah Sand Gnats (Mets affiliate) was a lot of fun. We swapped stories about former Reds hurler Rick Reed, who is a mutual friend.

I made a trip to spring training in March. The Pirates run a very impressive organization in Bradenton. They have some things going for them.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 15, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't know you worked for the Power

I remember when they were a Brewers affiliate; always heard good things about them.

Our car broke down outside Charleston as my wife and I were driving back to Milwaukee from North Carolina last summer; I got to experience my first “coal storm”.

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on May 15, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm the Huntington Area director for Fellowship of Christian Athletes.

Part of my duties are to serve as chaplain for the Power. I really love doing that. It’s incredibly rewarding and so much fun to be around a baseball team.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 16, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

So Turtle

what is your opinion on the draft-slotting debate? I still haven’t decided how I feel, I like things about both ways. I might be leaning to just leave it as is.

by pack_fan on May 15, 2011 2:37 AM EDT reply actions

I, too, think I'd leave it as is.

If a team wants to go over slot, that’s its business. There’s no slot for international signings. Any slotting system probably would drive more players to college ball.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 15, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm wondering also if they will end up implementing an international draft

Eventually that is something I believe will happen. Will be interesting to see if the do slotting in that draft.

by pack_fan on May 15, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

so the Reds picked a good year to be a good team?

Since even though they are drafting low, the draft is deep, and their doesn’t seem to be a Harper or a Strausberg around this year.

"I'm a professional baseball."- St. Louis Cardinal Manager Tony LaRussa discussing his profession with a Jupiter police officer who was in the process of charging TLR for a DUI.

by Yossarian22 on May 15, 2011 2:47 AM EDT reply actions

Yes. Picking 27, they could very well get a player

who might have been a top 15 guy in recent years.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 15, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Turtle you should hang around here more often

There have been several discussions which have meandered into the realm of the metaphysical (not to mention Church and State). It would be good to have you clear some of this stuff up!!!

By the way this guy says you’re alright…

MADS and ASH - Taking out the Trash - 2012

by Madville on May 17, 2011 12:22 AM EDT reply actions

Haven't you heard, Maddy?

Some character says it all ends on Saturday anyway. At least for Christians. He says we’ll all be raptured. The rest of the “hee-thurns,” as my granny would have called them, have to wait until October. Somehow, I figure I’ll still be doing my Sunday school lesson.

Glad to be back in the saddle. Good to be among friends.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 18, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

He means you will be raptured...

I am not so sure about me and a couple other of these RR clowns…things could get real hot around here, real fast!!!!

Rick Santorum telling my father [he] doesn't know about torture is like Carrot Top telling Lebron James he doesn't know about basketball." Meghan McCain

by Madville on May 18, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions