The Last Waltz: The Brew Crew, Prince Fielder, & His Appetite for Destruction

via anewscafe.com

In 1976, at the behest of frontman/guitarist/singer Robbie Robertson, The Band agreed to end their 8 year run of successful touring.  Rather than fade lightly into the sunset, the group opted to go out in style.  They booked a classic venue (The Winterland in San Francisco); they booked a talented producer (Martin Scorsese); they brought in an absurdly talented group of musicians as guests (Bob Dylan, Neil Young, Van Morrison, and Eric Clapton, among many others).  In short, they set up arguably the best finale they possibly could.

Then, they and their producer nailed their performances, putting on a show and documentary that are benchmarks today.

Flash forward to September 1991.  The release of Guns N' Roses' Use Your Illusion I and II marked both the pinnacle and fulcrum of the band's explosive career.  From the moment the drums kicked off "Welcome to the Jungle" in 1987, the band's fame skyrocketed behind the musical talents, innovative sounds, and social excess of Axel Rose, Slash, & co.  By 1991, fans, media, and the general public wondered what the boys would come up with next.  Would they persevere like the Rolling Stones, continuing to redefine a genre for years, or would the demands of their talisman cause them to crack at the seams?

via powerlinead.files.wordpress.com

We know how that ended.  Greed, naivete, and an underestimation of his fans' loyalty drove Axel Rose to destroy the best band of his generation.

The Milwaukee Brewers likely willl face a similar Frostian fork in the road this season.  Can Ron Roenicke emulate Scorsese and turn a one-performance super group into a timeless epic, or will Prince Fielder and his contract situation sound the death-bell for a once promising, talented franchise?  Let's take a look.

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

C'mon, Prince.  Fat, Drunk, and 2nd place is no way to go through a contract year.

The Holdovers

Ryan Braun (LF, Hair gel, team's shoehorn) - The perennial All-Star has seen his SLG drop steadily fall over the past 4 years.  From his breakout rookie campaign .634, he's posted .553, .551, and .501 since.  While he's been consistently well above average each year, he's had a fluctuating OPS+ each year as well, averaging 140 per year.  Bill James expects Braun to thoroughly bounce back, to the tune of .310/.372/.551, an aggressive but by no means out of reach projection.  In a somewhat shocking development, Braun has not exactly mashed Reds pitching in his 4 year career, hitting a well-below-average .262/.344/.467 in 253 PA's;  granted, the Reds haven't really had a LH starter for him to crush, so it's not as surprising to see those numbers.  That said, his numbers vs. the Reds are well below his RHP splits as well.

Fielder (1B, DH, Taco Bell trips) -  Prince Fielder is listed at 5'11", 270 lbs.  My senior year in high school, I was listed at 6'1", 180 lbs, but was actually 5'11", 165 lbs.  I think the proportions here hold true as well...dude's frickin' HUGE.  Regardless, he mashes.  Whether interestingly or coincidentally, he and Braun have both had huge swings at the same time, in the same seasons over the last 4 years.  Since 2007, Braun/Fielder have posted OPS+ of 154/157, 130/130, 146/166, 133/137;  if they're fluctuations hold true to form, both Mr. Braun and Mr. Fielder stand to bounce back significantly this year.  Since is also in the last year of his contract and has reportedly rejected a 9 figure contract from the only team he's ever played for, odds are he'll be out for blood (or sandwiches, fries, gummy bears, etc.)  Bill James projects a .276/.395/.540 season for the Axel Rose of our story, an above average year by his stats so far...not bad for a walk year.  If he really wants some Cub money (or Cardinal, perhaps...?), he'll likely get his.  Oh yeah, eats Cincy pitching in his career to the tune of a .908 OPS.  He likes RHP.

Corey Hart (RF, DJ/drugs) - Kentucky's own awkwardly tall, sort of talented outfielder signed a contract extension through 2013, paying him $26.5 million over that span.  Not bad for a guy who (are you sensing a trend here?) has had quite the up and down career.  He's coming off career bests of 31 homers and 102 RBI, but Bill James expects him to regress closer to his career OPS of .812.  He's expected to start the season on the DL with the increasingly common "oblique strain," but will likely be around for the majority of the year...unless he just wanted money, bitches, and laziness.  Then he'll just rent the Vikings Love Boat and pimp ho's with his strained self.  He's OPS'd .732 against our Reds in his career, so, eh, fuck 'em.

Casey McGehee (3B, thunderthighs, the last piece of chicken) - The dude freaked.  I mean really, really freaked.  Why, you ask?  Well, like a Cambodian child adopted by Brangelina, he was plucked from the Cubs by the Brewers and fed, wiped, and taught.  Whaddayaknow, the kid can hit!  He's posted OPS+ of 126 and 116 the last two seasons, and has filled a solid role in the Brewers lineup.  On defense, he's awful.  Pastadiving awful.  Mayyybe not Orlando Cabrera awful, but damn close.  Either way, he'll be a cog in what the Brew Crew Wanna Dew.  He, too, has underperformed versus his career averages against the Reds, posting only an OPS of .726 against our boys. 

Rickie Weeks (2B, shattered dreams, spare crutches) -  The enigmatic second baseman finally rose up and kicked ass in 2010.  Injuries, poor pitch recognition, injuries, and injuries had sidetracked his PAs over his first few years, but the former #2 overall pick stayed healthy and posted career highs in most every statistical category last year.  Bill James sees him as a.257/.358/.444 player in 2011, a slight increase from his career averages.  With Weeks, it's never about talent and performance, it's all about health, so I see these numbers as about right...over how many games is the only variable.

Carlos Gomez (CF, Speedy GonGomez jokes, trade fodder) - Carlos is Drew Stubbs light...maybe even Drew Stubbs Select...perhaps even Drew Stubbs 64.  In 97 games in 2010, his K/BB was 72/17 and his OBP was sub .300.  He's fast, he's a decent defender, but he'll have a hard time staying on the field or in the lineup with Nyjer Morgan now on board.  Still, the Mets might want a healthy Gomez over a $20 million Johan Santana mummy.  Bill James has him pegged for another sub .700 OPS season.  Oh, and don't worry...his .409 career OPS vs. the Reds shouldn't scare you either.

Johnathan LuKottaras (C, C, black holes, meh) - Wow, these two really do make Jason Kendall look productive (yes, THAT Jason Kendall).  Neither got on base, neither hit for power, neither cured cancer, and I bet neither would shotgun a beer with you.  When you click on Lucroy's Fangraphs page, the top news story is "Will Stars and Scrubs Approach Derail Brewers?"  I'll spoil it for you...he's not a star.  Bill James projects marginal improvements, but you can marginally improve from stepping in dog poo to cat poo and still be standing in cat poo.

Yovani Gallardo (SP, staff ace, doesn't play pick up hoops) - Yoga can throw, and throw well.  I was a bit surprised to see he only posted a 103 ERA+ last season despite going 14-7.  Still just 25, their opening day starter would be a solid pitcher for any team, anywhere.  He's seen a decline in ERA+ and an increase in WHIP since his knee injury 2 years back, so it will be interesting to see where his path takes (especially since he got paid.)  Bill James sees his K/9, BB/9, and BABIP all in line with his career numbers, so we should know what to expect.  He's 2-3 with a 5.56 ERA in 8 career starts versus the Reds...ugh, and he's on my fantasy team, The Dropkick Cuetos (looks like I'm benching him for opening day!)

Randy Wolf (SP, douchenozzle, Tomo Ohka All-Star) - This guy again?  Really?  Wolf has been a slightly above average pitcher for a decade now, throwing with pseudo speed and good off speed junk.  He's like the left handed, left coast version of Bronson Arroyo...he won't wow you, but you'll look up and your team lost to him.  At age 34, he should still be good for career average numbers this year, and Bill James sees him as just that:  13-13, with sub-4.50 ERA and FIP.  Doesn't sound imposing, does it?  Well, then the fact that he's 10-3 lifetime versus the Reds with a 1.106 WHIP in 129 innings should piss you off as much as it pisses me off.

Eric Clapton, Bob Dylan...or Scott Weiland?!

Zach Greinke (SP, introvert, woulddacoulddashoulddabeen Red) - The import, the new toy, the proverbial baseball Messiah he may be.  Karl Malone on the block he is not.  The former Royal and Cy Young winner was brought in to shore up a terrible staff, be an anchor, and take this team to the postseason.  Instead, he got dunked on at the Y and ended up with a busted rib.  While he'll be back soon enough, it will be interesting to see how the guy who's fought anxiety in his life reacts to being the supposed answer to Brewers faithful's questions.  If he holds up under the pressure, he'll be an ace, as he's got sick stuff.  If not, the situation could blow up like Prince's toilet after a dozen 7 layer burritos.  Bill James seems to think the move to the NL will be to his benefit, and projects him to go 14-11 with a 3.45 ERA and 3.31 FIP, all better than his career averages.

Shaun Marcum (SP, hockey puck collector, insert stereotypical Canadian joke here) - A really, really underrated player, and a really, really underrated move by GM Doug Melvin (who's Canadian too, by the way!).  Marcum's a career 37-25 pitcher who's pitched entirely in the AL East.  While I think the move to the NL Central will benefit his career numbers mightily, Bill James doesn't seem to agree, projecting him as merely a .500 pitcher with regressions in his K/9 and ERA+ from last season.  Avatar bet, Bill?

Yuniesky Betancourt (SS...?) - I can't decide if the "SS" here means "Super Shitty," "Seriously Sucky," or "Shouldn't Stillhaveaneffin'job."  He's garbage, period.  Offensively garbage, defensively garbage, his career W/L record is garbage.  Hell, he probably smells like garbage.  I'm calling him Oscar from now on.  Bill James projects him to be garbage.  Greinke better be DAMN good since they're counting on this garbage to play shortstop for him.

Sergio Mitre (RP/SP, meh) - If you're a dedicated enough baseball fan and RR reader to still be reading this, you clearly know enough about baseball to not need to know about Sergio Mitre.  Remember when we traded Chris Dickerson for 40 year old Jim Edmonds bum ass leg?  Dickerson begat Mitre.  Nuff said.

Nyjer Morgan (OF, battering ram, clubhouse cancer) - This dude is part Rob Dibble, part Pacman Jones.  His attitude encompasses both of the formers' volatility, and he can't hit much better than either of them as well.  He got picked up to be a 4th OF, and, well, thank God we've got Chris Heisey instead of him.

The Verdict

The Brewers really are at a crossroads.  Prince is in the last year of his contract, while Greinke and Marcum are signed for just this year and 2012.  They've effectively liquidated their MLB ready level of prospects (Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar primarily) to make a run for not just the NL Central, but the World Series this year.  I don't think the Brewers will finish 2nd this year; either they win the division, or they cut and run at the trade deadline and limp in at 4th.  If healthy and cohesive, this is a very, very dangerous team.  The offense was (and should be) top-3 in the NL again, and with Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Wolf, their rotation is massively improved. 

I've been back and forth with this projection, but I really do think the Brewers will put it together this year.  I'm saying they win the NL Central with a mark of 91-71, the same mark the Reds won with last year.  Never fear, Red Reporters, I still have the Reds winning the Wild Card with an 89-73 mark.