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Depth Chart, circa Spring 2011: Position Players

I've never quite understood the term "position player." "Pitcher" is also a position, isn't it? So I'm not sure what distinction this makes. I've been championing the term "no pitch 'ems" for years, but so far: no luck.

Here's volume two of my attempt to take a non-family-metaphor-based snapshot of the roster going into Spring Training 2011. I've based this primarily on the line of succession I think it in place and which will dictate how players are used this season. I'm anticipating that the team's new-found "win now" approach, designed to keep pace with St. Louis and Milwaukee, will give it a more aggressive outlook on the depth chart than in years past.

I've also included back-up/starter and playing time (%) columns for position players. These indicate whether a player is a potential regular at the position this year (which I've defined as getting at least 30% of starts) - even if as a result of injury or trade - and how much time they are projected to play at the start of the season. In some cases, "starters" will leapfrog "back-ups." For example: While Miguel Cairo is likely to spell Votto periodically at 1B, Yonder is the next fulltime 1B in the queue.

At the major league level, there isn't a whole lot of guesswork required with respect to positions and playing time. SS, as as it's been almost perennially in the post-Larkin age, and LF, are exceptions. And as soon as one of the stalwarts goes down, there could be much yelling and gnashing of lineup cards.

Charts after the jump ("chart" doesn't seem like a very apt term either).

Star-divide

The below only applies to player talent and usage entering 2011, without any regard for longer-term prospect ceilings or veteran player decline.

* indicates lefty batter, + indicates  switch

Catcher

After the awesome and horrifying two-headed catching tandem of Rymon Hernanigan, whose PT may prove to be roughly equivalent this season, things get a little murky. Mesoraco is knocking on the door if he continues to hit at AAA, but would he be called up to back-up or split time if one of those two heads were incapacitated? He's not on the 40-man at present - though, it should be noted, neither is Corky Miller.  Meanwhile, Yasmani Grandal, who is one of the 40, may start the year in low-A. The picture at catcher is very much a shot in time, with one of the most influential factors being Mesoraco's continued ascendancy. 

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Ramon Hernandez 35 Y 92 S 55%
2
Ryan Hanigan 30 Y
95 S 45%
3
Corky Miller 35 N 72 BU -
4
Devin Mesoraco
23 N 103 S -
5
Chris Denove 27
N 71 BU -
6
Yasmani Grandal + 22 Y N/A S -


First base

Known within firstbaseman circles by its proper name: Joey Votto Chair for 1B Supremacy. Given Joey's invincibility and my belief in a just world, this is just a formality:

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Joey Votto* 27 Y 151 S 95%
2
Miguel Cairo 37 Y
78 BU 5%
3
Yonder Alonso* 24 Y 102 S -
4
Daniel Dorn 26 N 107 S -
5
Todd Frazier 25 Y 94 BU -


Second base

Another one without much ambiguity at the top. Early word is that Renteria will see time at both center infield positions, possibly making making Cairo almost exclusively a corner IF back-up.

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Brandon Phillips 30 Y 102 S 90%
2
Edgar Renteria 34 Y
82 S 10%
3
Miguel Cairo 37 Y 78 BU -
4
Chris Valaika 25 Y 82 S -
5
Todd Frazier 25 Y 94 BU -
6
Zach Cozart 25 Y 82 BU -


Short stop

Gets more interesting at short. While the party line is that Janish is the starter, Dusty & Co. have played it close to the vest as to what this means in practice. This is the position where Dusty's alleged veteran bias collides head-on his tendency to assign strict roles to starters, with less time-sharing, and to stick his man through extended slumps.

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Paul Janish 28
Y 72 S 60%
2
Edgar Renteria 34
Y
82 S 40%
3
Zach Cozart 25
Y 82
S -
4
Kris Negron 25
Y 72
S -
5
Chris Valaika 25
Y 82
BU -


Third base

Just another Gold Glove/All Star at the top of the heap. Dusty had Scott Rolen on a rough schedule of at least once-weekly rest last season, which works out to missing a minimum of about 1/6 of games. Given how Rolen wore down as the season did, Baker may be even more cautious  in '11. By practicing preventative medicine, injury need not be an inevitability, but 130 GS is probably the ceiling.

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Scott Rolen
36
Y 110 S 75%
2
Miguel Cairo
37
Y
78 BU 20%
3
Juan Francisco
24
Y 102
S 5%
4
Todd Frazier 25
Y 94
S -
5
Chris Valaika
25
Y 82
BU -


LF

Left field is probably the least predictable position for both playing time and rank order. Dusty has indicated, both in remarks to the press this offseason and his lineup cards last season, that Gomes is his primary LFer. But that doesn't really jive with a possible platoon involving Fred Lewis, wherein Gomes - the LHP specialist - gets about 30% of starts. Though if I were Fred Lewis, or a snot-nosed blogger, I would exercise caution in challenging a Jonny Gomes, backed by the full faith and credit of his manager.

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Jonny Gomes
30
Y 100
S 50%
2
Fred Lewis* 30
Y
98
S 40%
3
Chris Heisey
26
Y 96
BU 10%
4
Jeremy Hermida
27
N 80
S -
5
Todd Frazier
25
Y 94
S -
6
Dave Sappelt
24
N 95
S -


CF

By all accounts, Drew Stubbs has this position on retainer, though he has to stay healthy and avoid the pitfalls of a sophomore slump. Depending on Stubbs performance and how LF playing time shakes out, Dusty may be tempted to force-fit Fred Lewis into CF for some starts based on his lead-off man capabilities, though Heisey is really the one who profiles as Stubbs' back-up. I hope this is the year Dusty's CF/leadoff conflation becomes a distant memory, but I'm not counting on it.

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Drew Stubbs
26
Y 92 S 85%
2
Chris Heisey
26
Y
96 S 10%
3
Fred Lewis*
30
Y 98
BU 5%
4
Dave Sappelt
24
N 95
BU -


RF

Don't get injured. Same goes for all the other good players from before.

Rank
Name
Age (2011)
 40 man?
Zips Projected OPS+
S/BU? PT (%)
1
Jay Bruce*
24
Y 123 S 90%
2
Chris Heisey
26
Y
96 S 5%
3
Jonny Gomes
30
Y 100
BU 5%
4
Fred Lewis*
30
Y 98
BU -

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I hope the same

but he did see 34 games there in ‘09, mostly as a result of Bruce’s injury.

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 14, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

FTFY

I really hope Gomes isn’t pressed into starting 5% 50% of games in RF LF.

I am cautiously optimistic that they don’t want to come out and say they are going to platoon the two, but that that is the plan. It’s just really disconcerting to consistently hear Lewis referred to as a LH bench bat who “may lead off some”.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Feb 14, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

You have had to employ guesswork to determine who was going to start in LF since Larkin retired?

Wasn’t Adam Dunn’s name penciled into the lineup card every day for quite some time?

He fixes the cable?

by Colin Auscapee on Feb 14, 2011 1:39 PM EST reply actions  

I meant mostly short stop

so that modifier isn’t correct. LF has been a relative crapshoot post-Dunn.

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 14, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

as you have remedied your error in 1984-like fashion

you may as well delete this now-irrelevant carping thread that I’ve begun

He fixes the cable?

by Colin Auscapee on Feb 14, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Can we start referring to Chris Carpenter as Emmanuel Goldstein?

Or does that not work when the hate is longer than three minutes?

by Brendanukkah on Feb 14, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Then he's into Napoleon territory

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 14, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought the steroid era was over

this sure doesn’t feel like a level playing field.

He fixes the cable?

by Colin Auscapee on Feb 14, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank you for your help?

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 14, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting too that Devin's is higher than both MLB catchers'

We saw this with the pitcher depth chart, when they had Aroldis projected to be the 2nd or 3rd best starter. Projections are like armpits: If you stick your nose too far into them, you accidentally swallow deodorant.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Feb 14, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Projections are fun, but mostly worthless so let's take this a step further, shall we

Projections are like armpits asscracks: If you stick your nose too far into them, you accidentally swallow deodorant shit.

I feel this way because I don’t think anyone expects Gomes to be better than Stubbs. /fingers crossed

I hate to say this, but this place is getting to me. I think I'm getting the Fear.

by Corky's Stache on Feb 14, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Definitions

“Position player” is not an original baseball term and came about generally when teams decided to have several pitchers on the roster. The “position players” were in there every day and the pitcher just changed.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 2:03 PM EST reply actions  

Crap, Carp ... all the same.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree, to a point

It’s only offense being projected – and it’s OPS, which undersells OBP. But Stubbs OBP is constrained by his contact issues.

I’d expect his power to at least hold steady, which should be good for an OPS of at least 100 (last year his .773 was good for a 108 OPS+) .800 and above is pretty rarefied space for centerfielders, so even with a slight downturn from last year, Stubbs is still a very valuable CF, given his speed and defense. Still, I don’t think it’s out of the question that he and Gomes could OPS+ the same this season, especially if Gomes is used in a more platoony way.

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 14, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there no reason ....

… to think that Stubbs won’t adjust and improve his approach? He has to know that cutting down on Ks is important. I don’t ever see Gomer becoming any better as a hitter but Stubbs has plenty of room to improve.

Just as a number, if Stubbs cut down … say, 3 strikeouts a week, what would that do to his numbers, alleging they were not all popups to the third baseman in foul territory.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

The strikeouts are a bit of a paper tiger

Erardi (and Slyde) made a good case for why:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110204/SPT04/302040090?GID=q08HeAtnoO4FYhyVowKzqym7ZGmpMbHNeuUh6kaI7ng%3D

I look at the general reaction Stubbs’ Ks from a similar vantage point to that of his bunting. He’s tried to improve both throughout his professional career, but had persistent problems. He could really buckle down and become a bunt specialist, but it would be waste of his time and ability to drive the ball. Similarly, he could just focus on making contact and slapping the ball, at the expense of extra base hits and homeruns.

I think it’s more reasonable to hope his plate discipline improves to match his minor league performance, which means he’s walking 10-20 more times. And hopefully those would be Ks, not doubles and HRs, turning into BBs. If he does that, his contact may also improve by forcing pitchers to put it in the zone, so there could be a multiplier effect.

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 14, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

My observations ...

were that Stubbs was giving up too many pitches early in the count and getting behind, then flailing away to catch up again. So if I were to be his coach for 29 minutes, I would ask him to consider attacking pitches early in the count.

The trick is naturally to realize that they might not be strikes.

If he can do that, the pitches he sees will change and those may very well be out of the strike zone. Then his walks will improve.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

aggressive early in the count

if that’s working on pitch recognition, then we agree.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I just lost all faith in ZIPS

Not that I had any to begin with. But…..

Mesoraco 103
Francisco 102
Gomes 100
Hanigan 95
Sappelt 95
Frazier 94
Ramon 92
Stubbs 92

Really, ZIPS? Really?

Or even if I just like such as judged a fish contest that would get me outta the house and in some air.

by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Feb 14, 2011 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

i kinda think terry's is overrated actually

it’s great, but it’s not as awesome as ppl claim. It’s still not any better than what Mr Jim’s use to be. I also find the kind of burger/toppings you can get a terry’s is pretty limited.

by cokane on Feb 14, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

The funny thing, is that I went to Gordo's last week and had a similar burger experience where the burger came out in 3 pieces

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Feb 14, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Gordo's might be in trouble

they’re changing up their menu & the bakery that made their awesome buns is out of business.

by 'tHan on Feb 15, 2011 8:51 AM EST up reply actions  

They had a few new ones since the last time we went, but the rest were still there

And I had TTC last week too, and I’m actually thinking that my subpar Gordo’s for the first time might have beaten out Terry’s. Maybe.

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Feb 15, 2011 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

changing up their menu?!

and those buns are no longer available?

sounds like Norwood just got a new sQuatman’s….

by Highlifeman21 on Feb 15, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

the last time I was there

the burger was still really really good even with the new bun.

also, they always have a great beer selection.

by 'tHan on Feb 16, 2011 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Terry's < Zip's

Gordo’s > Terry’s

I love how when Terry’s was on Diners, Drive Ins & Dives, they talked about their chili and their sauces, and not their burgers. Seriously, I don’t recall one mention of their burgers.

by Highlifeman21 on Feb 14, 2011 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

ugh

I hope Dusty never thinks of Lewis as a CFer.

And Dusty said he’d try Renteria out at 3B. I dunno if it’s going to work, but it he might be a better option than Miggy.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 14, 2011 2:55 PM EST reply actions  

If it's off and on

say, once a week, Renteria could play third.
If we have to use him for 6 weeks there, it’s a sure sign we’d be on the phone to somebody.

Or wait till 2012.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

The Baseball Project has a song about the Reds on their new album...

“Pete Rose Way”

The Great American ballpark, where the sun shines all day. Now I’m walking down Riverside, down to Pete Rose Way. The perfect chaos when he slid, the way he made you pay. Every single thing he did, he did the Pete Rose way. "Walk through hell in a gasoline suit if there’s one more game to play." Diving down this boulevard they call Pete Rose Way…

He’d be the first to tell you how many outs he made. Never said he was the best, but oh, how hard he played. Ask about the Big Red Machine — now what would Sparky say? I guess he’d probably tell you that they played the Pete Rose way. "Walk through hell in a gasoline suit if there’s one more game to play." Diving down this boulevard they call Pete Rose Way…

Oh Brandon, Bronson and Joey, oh Aaron, Johnny and Jay. So many lessons to be learned going down the Pete Rose way. Going down the Pete Rose Way…

Watch it, ass blood.

by -ManBearPig on Feb 14, 2011 5:16 PM EST reply actions  

And we all know the way to Pete Rose Way

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 14, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

that would be so cool to see in real life

"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"

by smitty3 on Feb 15, 2011 3:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah,

that would be cool to see in real life; until some asshole honks their horn, causes an avalanche and you end up in a scene from 127 hours.

by Joe Nolan's Neckbeard on Feb 15, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I have seen this picture about 3,000 times in the last 2 weeks.

Mostly in the context of and email with the title “here’s tomorrow’s commute!” after a big snow. It was profoundly unfunny each and every time.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Feb 15, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

what is it actually a picture of?

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Feb 15, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it was Photoshopped

so people could send it to their friends with the title, “here’s tomorrow’s commute!”

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 15, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

It is not in the U.S.

drivers are all on the left side.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 15, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe it was taken in a mirror?

"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube

by andromache on Feb 15, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

that would be another explanation, yes

If you flop the picture, the cars are going the other direction and we know that could not have happened.

Map Quest really needs to start their directions on # 5. I'm pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.

by johnu1 on Feb 15, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

this is a very good point

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Feb 15, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

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