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In this universe, does Yu Darvish make any sense for the Reds?

It’s been reported that Yu Darvish, pitching ace for Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters*, will become available to MLB teams by the posting process. This means the team must pay twice – once for the right to talk to his agent, and again for the actual contract. There’s no risk to a team submitting a bid because you don’t pay the post if the player won’t agree to a contract. This happened to Oakland last year when they successfully bid on the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma with a $19.1M post, but failed to reach an agreement with pitcher.

For some U.S. fans, this has been a long time coming. The 25 year-old Darvish is the best pitcher in Japan by a longshot. What that portends for his MLB performance is a potentially $100M question. Daisuke Matsuzaka, the last Sawamura Award (Japan's CYA) winner to come to the U.S., had two very good years for Boston before injuries (perhaps exacerabated by a communication breakdown with Boston) derailed his MLB career.

The Replacement Level Yankee Blog has done yeoman's work in looking at the NPB stats of Daisuke, Darvish, and several other imports. Read the entire piece, but the takeaway is that Daisuke's ERA and FIP in the three seasons before arriving were in the low and mid-2's. Darvish's FIP over the past three seasons? 1.88. Yowzas.

Star-divide

Beyond the numbers, what are the critical factors for Darvish's transition?

1. Stuff. Darvish reportedly throws a nasty slider and a fastball that sits around 90-93 but can get up to 97. Is it better than Daisuke's stuff? I'm not sure, but back in 2008 Bobby Valentine seemed to think so. The slider looks unhittable, but the fastball velocity is nothing special. I believe Daisuke was supposed to have thrown harder when he arrived. Daisuke was also famous for his broad repertoire of pitches that would keep American hitters constantly guessing. From what I've read Darvish doesn't throw quite as many types of pitches, going to his curve and changeup to complement his fastball and slider. According to his Wiki page he dropped his screwball after it contributed to a 2006 shoulder injury.

For whichever team makes the winning bid, I hope for their sake that they've had multiple scouts observe him extensively, both live and video. It's hard to overstate the importance of scouting here because we don't have a great handle on how the raw stats themselves translate from NPB to MLB.


2. Strike zone. This could be rolled into the first category, but I mention it again because Daisuke has been a notorious nibbler since joining the Red Sox. Is it tentativeness, or did he enjoy a wider strike zone in Japan? And if it's the latter, why didn't he adjust sooner? Reports on the command and control of his slider and fastball are probably the most critical pieces of information in the overall evaluation.


3. Age and workload. At 25, Darvish will be the youngest NPB pitcher to make the big leap. This means he's got far fewer career innings than Daisuke. Daisuke was famous for being a bulldog, once throwing 250 pitches in Koshien, the national high school tournament and the Japanese equivalent of March Madness. Since joining Boston, however, Daisuke's suffered from chronic shoulder problems.

Darvish hasn't exactly been babied in NPB, throwing 232 innings last season in 28 starts, easily his most in pro ball. He has a more classic pitcher's frame (6' 5", 185) compared to Daisuke (6' 187), for what that's worth. But he's also had shoulder problems in the not-too-distant past. In addition to 2006, he was shelved in August 2009 for "shoulder fatigue." Given that he will be expected to make starts more frequently in the U.S. (NPB teams typically go with a six-man rotation), this should be cause for concern.


4. That stuff between the ears. After his command and control, this is probably the most significant factor as to whether Darvish can succeed. In Daisuke's case, there's been speculation that a disconnect between Daisuke and the Red Sox developed while he rehabbed his shoulder, and that he hasn't been the same pitcher since. I'm optimistic that Darvish will have better communication and less of a cultural transition because he's not a full Nihonjin, like Daisuke. His Persian father and Japanese mother actually met while studying in Florida, so Darvish presumably has some exposure to American culture. This is all of course highly speculative. He might turn out to be a prima donna intent on doing things his way, or he might be a consummate team player that's willing to follow his organization's instructions.


So how much will he cost? I don't think it will be Daisuke-expensive ($50M posting fee, $49M (point one repeating) contract over seven years) because of the economy and because Daisuke has been viewed as a bust.** But it sure won't be cheap. I think a posting fee around $40M could get it done. As for the contract, it depends on how badly Darvish wants to pitch in MLB next year. He made about $6M in 2011, and I would imagine that he'd refuse a pay cut. To give the deal some symmetry, I predict $40M for 5 years.

An $80M investment is obviously outside the realm of possibility for the Reds, which is too bad. If Darvish became the team's bona fide ace or at least the Drysdale to Cueto's Koufax (offseason optimism!), it would certainly be worth it. But the uncertainty and upfront cost are just too much. For now, we'll have to wait on Walt to wheel and deal his way to an ace by dangling various Reds' prospects.

* Not to be a killjoy, but the team is called the "Fighters," not "Ham Fighters." The team's sponsor is Nippon Ham.

** Daisuke was looking like a very good deal for Boston after the first two years, putting up about 8 WAR and collecting a ring. Plus, the team now has a much bigger following in Japan, and Boston has reaped indirect benefits like direct flights to Japan from Logan. But since the shoulder injury he's been roster deadweight.

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Re: Ham Fighters

Was hoping that it was the Orthodox Jewish team…

by Nasty N8 on Dec 8, 2011 11:39 AM EST reply actions  

I figured Ham Fighters would fight with ham as a weapon, not against ham itself

You could do some pretty good damage swinging a big ol’ ham hock.

And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off

by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Dec 8, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Like a pork sword?

I want to hate Tim Tebow, but for some reason, I don't

by Joe Nolan's Neckbeard on Dec 8, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

But enough about my penis.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Dec 8, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Lord Pork Sword, I presume?

I want to hate Tim Tebow, but for some reason, I don't

by Joe Nolan's Neckbeard on Dec 8, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Well, this degenerated quickly

Walt needs to make a move quick before Red Reporter devolves into 4chan

And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off

by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Dec 8, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

You started it.

I want to hate Tim Tebow, but for some reason, I don't

by Joe Nolan's Neckbeard on Dec 8, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

From the Ham Fighters to Porkopolis?

Sounds perfect.

$80M over 5 years is $16M/year. Carp gets $10.5M/yr, and Halladay gets $20.

If Darvish is too expensive, then that means we’ll never get a quality #1 pitcher.

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on Dec 8, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, but you can call me jch

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Dec 8, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Darvish's fastball velocity may not be great, but is still a lot better than Daisuke's

Matsuzaka was known as a 92-94 guy, but his average fb velocity has always been ~92 or lower. Darvish looks like he’s been trying to prove he’s got the velocity – going entire games throwing at and above 95 mph consistently, although he definitely has had other games where he’s just throwing 91-93. But essentially, he throws a little slower than Johnny.

As far as results, yes, that’s most of my reasoning. Even though offense was down across the board after they standarized the ball this season, essentially, he and Tanaka were head and shoulders above the rest of the league this year. The league average K/9 was 6.66 – Darvish struck out 10.2/9. There were two pitchers in Japan that had more than 200 Ks in 2011. Darvish had 276.

That being said, the Reds won’t, and should absolutely not get near him. I thought I remembered around the Matsuzaka signing that the posting fee won’t count towards a team’s luxury tax number. So teams with the highest payrolls get a small comparative benefit (as compared to signing a domestic free agent).

I really thought the Angels might be a good bet, but with CJ Wilson, it seems unlikely.

Is there a mod so powerful he can ban himself?

by andromache on Dec 8, 2011 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks, you're clearly more on top of this than I am

I thought Daisuke was supposed to have a blazing fastball but I’m probably misremembering something from the WBC broadcast.

The standardized ball should help make comparisons between the two leagues over time. I don’t know if “ball adjustment” has been a problem for any other NPB pitcher, although plenty (especially relievers) seem to come over and do well right away.

The biggest problem with the posting system to me, other than preventing players arriving at an early age, is that it incents the winning team to issue a longer-term deal than it probably should. Daisuke should never have gotten a seven-year deal, but that way Boston was able to spread out the posting fee over a longer period. A better system would allow these guys to sign a two-year deal and then get paid the big bucks if they’re worth it and want to stay.

by ken on Dec 8, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you have a reference on that?

I thought that the posting fee went to the NPB team within a few days of signing a contract. Maybe I’m misunderstanding you, but there’s nothing I can see that would make it more advantageous for an MLB team to give out a longer contract.

The impression I took away from the Matsuzaka posting is that once you win the bid, the MLB team has a little bit more leverage. Daisuke could have returned to the Lions, but he would have been making less money, and the Lions wouldn’t be too happy about losing out on 51 million dollars. I think I remember that Matsuzaka wanted four years – the Red Sox probably made it a longer contract (wasn’t it actually 6/52?) to lower the AAV/maintain control if he does happen to be good, but that’s not a result of the posting fee.

I can’t imagine that many NPB stars would really want to take the best years of their career for a two year tryout in the US, without a lot of money coming to them.

Is there a mod so powerful he can ban himself?

by andromache on Dec 8, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

What I meant was it's easier to justify a higher posting fee if you're giving a longer-term deal

The posting fee is paid right away but from an accounting perspective it’s probably treated in line with the contract (i.e., if the Red Sox had offered a three-year deal to Daisuke, the posting fee essentially adds $16M to each year of the contract). Only a longer-term deal will make the AAV of the posting fee sufficiently low to leave room for salary. At least, this is how I think about it. A real accountant might have a different take.

If there wasn’t a posting system, the money could of course go straight to the player. Hypothetically, the 25 year-old Darvish could sign for something like 2 years/$30M. It would be a huge raise over his NPB salary, but at the same time it wouldn’t hamstring the MLB team. Seems like the posting system was the only thing left untouched by the new CBA.

by ken on Dec 8, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions  

The posting system is flawed and hated by NPB players

But teams demand it because they know all their best talent would bolt for MLB if they didn’t have it in place. It really needs to be reworked. Honestly, I enjoy NPB games, but the talent disparity is huge between the players that would never make the majors, the former MLBers, and then the players that go through the posting system.

Plus all the financial reasons you listed negatively impact everyone but the NPB team’s ownership. But they have all the control apparently.

by RedsFanInJapan on Dec 9, 2011 4:40 AM EST up reply actions  

way to be racist

Contributing little more than than snark and wittiness to SBN since 2007.

by Yossarian22 on Dec 8, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

are teams allowed to "post and trade"

that is, either post the money and the trade the rights, or post and sign a contract, and then trade him away?

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Dec 8, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd like to see the Reds make an attempt to sign Darvish...

I mean, worst case, someone offers a higher posting fee, right? From what little I’ve read on mlbtraderumors.com, it sounds like there are a lot of teams already saying they’re out. Someone has to win the right to negotiate with him. Why not the Reds?

by badenjr on Dec 8, 2011 2:44 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

subscribe to this man's newsletter

and fuck you jch

Contributing little more than than snark and wittiness to SBN since 2007.

by Yossarian22 on Dec 8, 2011 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You're entirely too tall for my tastes, sorry sugar

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Dec 9, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

i don't know why i lashed out at you like that

i am sorry JCH.

Contributing little more than than snark and wittiness to SBN since 2007.

by Yossarian22 on Dec 9, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it's too risky

I’m coming to believe that the game in Japan is just too different. Doesn’t meant Japanese players can’t succeed – look at Godzilla and Ichiro. But I don’t think scouting can really predict who will succeed and who won’t. At least, not yet.

I asked some baseball fans in Japan about Nakajima, and whether they teach players to field balls backhanded. They said they don’t. They didn’t say whether it was because it was sloppy or unmanly or something else, but from a young age, players are taught to avoid backhanded catches if possible.

They do think Nakajima will be successful in the US…but they also thought that about Kaz Matsui. They think he’s a great player, and they just don’t understand why he wasn’t successful here.

Same thing with Matsuzaka. A lot of Americans in Japan thought Dice-K was a slam-dunk. He was younger than most players from Japan, and his stuff seemed likely to translate well. (This was not the case with Kei Igawa, who was viewed as a bad bet from the start.) But he hasn’t been worth the money.

Maybe Yu will be a spectacular success. I hope he is, if only because his tigrmetrics are off the charts. (Watch out, Justin Bieber.) But the Reds can’t afford a gamble like this.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 8, 2011 3:09 PM EST reply actions  

Since he could very well up with NYY, I'm sure you hope he does well

About Daisuke, he did work out pretty well for the first two years, 15th in baseball in WAR. He hasn’t been worth the money because of subsequent injuries.

Kaz Matsui was ridiculously hyped in retrospect. Robert Whiting does a lot of writing about Japanese ball and thought little Matsui would be the next star. I guess the defensive issues you’ve mentioned were part of the problem, though his much better ratings once he left New York indicate that other issues were at play (including SSS).

by ken on Dec 8, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Kaz was also bitten by the injury problem

he was a serviceable player when healthy

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Dec 8, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

you can't help wondering

if the Japanese emphasis on hard work has something to do with those injury problems.

One American baseball fan in Japan said every high school player in Japan has probably fielded more grounders than a pro in the US. Matsuzaka stunned the Bosox with his workout regimen, and it was a constant point of conflict – they thought he was working way too hard.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 8, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I wish they would sign him

Not because I think he’s a bonafide ace, but because then I would be guaranteed to see Reds games here.

by RedsFanInJapan on Dec 8, 2011 3:13 PM EST reply actions  

both Andro and Bubba posting in this thread and not mentioning his dreaminess?

OR how he got on a microphone to a stadium and announced he would marry a girl he impregnated to save his family’s honor?

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Dec 8, 2011 5:42 PM EST reply actions  

His name alone sounds like a flirty retort:

“Oh, you darivsh, you!”

How about you agree to waive the fine and I promise not to email you the remaining eighty six photos of my dog dressed as a bear.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 8, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Yu Darvish? I barely KNEW Darvish!

Is there a mod so powerful he can ban himself?

by andromache on Dec 9, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I've been reading RR for about 3 months

and I just now realized that andromache is a girl

I don't know why my kids call me that. I think I'm a pretty nice mom.

by darthmom on Dec 9, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Meh, I haven't been around nearly as much as I used to.

In my former days you definitely would have seen me evaluating player hawtness, or whining about cheesecake pictures at least once a week.

Is there a mod so powerful he can ban himself?

by andromache on Dec 9, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

yeah, WTF 'mache?

where you been?

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 9, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

She been bloggin.'

And pimpin.

Straight cold pimpin the cross-stitchin’, homey.

How about you agree to waive the fine and I promise not to email you the remaining eighty six photos of my dog dressed as a bear.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 9, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Where the hell did everybody from 'back in the day' go?

It is a ghost town around these parts…these days

GOOD TO HERE FROM FVA !!!

Scott Roland should retire tomorrow.

by Madville on Dec 9, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Hola, Mads.

How about you agree to waive the fine and I promise not to email you the remaining eighty six photos of my dog dressed as a bear.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 9, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey Alan, S'up my Brother?

Scott Roland should retire tomorrow.

by Madville on Dec 10, 2011 7:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I had heard that the Rangers and the Blue Jays were the leading 'contenders' in the market for Darvish.

And with the Rangers losing CJ Wilson to a division rival you’d have to guess that they’ll get serious about Darvish.

Aaaand then I read this article that says, “Hardy har har yuk yuk yuk, can you believe that it’s been reported that the Rangers new TV deal is worth $3 billion?!? I mean, c’mon, three billion?!? Whoa, that’s like Monopoly money, right? ..Seriously though, it’s for $1.6 billion.”

How about you agree to waive the fine and I promise not to email you the remaining eighty six photos of my dog dressed as a bear.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 9, 2011 10:50 PM EST reply actions  

I think we have the answer.

Not anymore.

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on Dec 18, 2011 5:34 PM EST reply actions  

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