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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Red Reposter - Stubbs' Ks, Bray's vacay

  • Doc takes Stubbs to task for the Ks
    Saying that Stubbs would be a better player if he struck out less is both a fair and obvious point. But Doc goes about it in a comically critical fashion: "Choking up is a Man-Card violation. It’s the hardball equivalent of drinking a beer with fruit in it. Skinny shortstops who couldn’t hit a 400-foot flyball with a rocket muscle up at the plate and swing from the radio booth. And fly out routinely." I pretty much stopped after seeing a professional journalist write about man-cards and fruiting the beer.  But more substantively, it's not as if the organization hasn't tried to make Texarkana Slim into a Slappy McSlapperson in the minors.  It just didn't work.

    This part was also illuminating: "
    Drew Stubbs probably has never heard of [Harry] Walker or [Matty] Alou. They’re both dead now, which complicates things." It does? "Alou died Thursday at age 72, of diabetes. Walker died 12 summers ago. Each could be linked to Stubbs’ future." Now it's more clear. Bring down the strikeouts, Drew, lest you be stricken with diabetes in forty-five years.
  • Aaron Cook is interested in a homecoming
    Aaron Cook told Denver reporter Jim Armstrong that he's interested in talking with San Diego and Cincinnati this offseason. The 2011 Rockie and Hamilton HS product strikes out hitters less frequently than even Arroyo, but doesn't walk many and is a groundball-generating machine. As a long-man/spot starter, Cook might make some sense. But he's going to have to take a paycut from the $9.8M he earned last season.  HT to BBTF.

    Armstrong, incidentally, left the Denver Post late last week after being named as a prominent client of a Denver sports bookie.
  • Brennaman goes to bat for Bruce's glove
    In last week's "Reds Hot Stove League," Marty Brennaman surprisingly supported Jay Bruce's ultimately unsuccessful candidacy for the Gold Glove. "[Bruce] should have won it last year. There is no better right fielder defensively in this league than Jay Bruce." This was nice to hear and in contrast to the steady criticisms Marty lodged at Bruce last season about his Ks and consistency.  HT to Bleacher Report.
  • R.I.P., Bob Forsch
    One week after throwing out the first pitch of Game 7, Bob Forsch passed away late last week. For the last three seasons, he was the pitching coach for the Reds' Class A rookie league affiliate in Billings. As a player, he pitched for 16 years and won 168 games, including the only two no-hitters at Busch II. The link reviews Forsch's playing highlights, of which there were many. 

Star-divide

  • Bray and back-to-back appearances
    Peter Gammons tweeted this nugget from the Bill James Handbook: "back-to-back relief appearances--Venters 33, O'Flaherty 30, Kimbrel 28, Bray 28. Braves 9-18 in Sept." Causation-correlation, SSS, yadda yadda ... but Bray was certainly hit harder in the second half of the season. 1st half numbers: 2.12 ERA, .501 OPS against. Those numbers for the second half were 4.34 and .761.  But then again, his K/BB ratio actually improved in the second half, so maybe it's all statistical noise.

    Bray just returned from his exhibition tour of Taiwan.  His lasting memory:  staring in solemn silence at the dramatic changing of the guard ceremony at the Martyrs Shrine to honor Taiwanese casualties of war outside of Taipei City. I didn't see any boxscores from the exhibition trip, but I believe Bray got at least two appearances in, both scoreless.

  • Popping some squats with strength and conditioning coach Matt Krause
    Sheldon sits down with Krause to talk about how the Reds stay in shape over the winter:  Over the last couple of days of each regular season, Reds players have an exit interview with Krause -- possibly general manager Walt Jocketty and manager Dusty Baker as well -- to go over their physical strengths and weaknesses from the past year.  There was no interview for Paul Janish this year, just a bag of wrist exercisers left in his locker.
  • Way! Johnny Bench gets own street
    Besides having a statue unveiled in Bench's honor on September 17, the city surprisingly revealed that parts of Second Street around GABP would be renamed Johnny Bench Way.  
  • Amy Nelson the latest to leave the WWL for SBNation
    She will reportedly be starting up a SBN Youtube channel.  The talent drain from Bristol continues.  

  • Trey Griffey sets his HS record for TD receptions
    Trey goes to an Orlando high school called "Dr. Phillips," which despite its name is a formidable institution for both football and academics.  Last Friday he had 13 receptions for 188 yards and four touchdowns.  The Kid can also play a little baseball, and supposedly has had a standing offer from the Mariners since 1994.  Front offices perhaps got too bored and speculative during the dark days of the strike.

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Agree

Also, the most frustrating part is the willful ignorance of the fact that his contact becomes much weaker all the time if he starts doing what Doc wants him to.

So yeah, maybe he only strikes out 100 times, but a lot of the current homers and line drives turn into pop outs and weak ground outs. Yay! You’ve turned Stubbs into Willy Taveras!

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

And another thing...

Stubbs also isn’t Willy Taveras as a bunter. Just because he’s fast, doesn’t mean he also can bunt – there’s nothing about “bunting ability” and “speed” that overlaps.

Honestly, it’s as if guys like Doc assume that players are who they are by choice, not by skillset.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah, but... did anyone notice that Stubbs wasn't a very good player this year?

SLG .364… from a supposed slugger?!

1.9 WAR.

3rd in the league in outs.

RF down significantly from last year. Was not among the NL leaders.

Face it, last year he was a below average MLB CF.

We should do better than that.

A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Nov 7, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

just so that we're all arguing the same thing

here’s the CF fWAR leaderboard. Stubbs is 19th, and it’s really hard to argue he “deserves” to be higher.

But who the hell is Alejandro de Aja?

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

well, de Aza, at least.

I will say that all Bruce, Heisey, and Stubbs graded out as negatives on fWAR’s fielding scale, which smells funny to me. For comparison, Carlos Lee (THAT Carlos Lee) has a robust +11.2

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Fielding stats are endlessly debatable

But does anyone think Stubbs was above average this year as a whole?

A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Nov 7, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

No, he was probably about average, or perhaps a tick below

But the point is that “having him choke up more” isn’t going to change that. We all want him to be better, and hope he improves this season, but simply telling him to strike out less isn’t a solution. At least I don’t think it is.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

No argument with that

But if we can’t expect him to be better, he has to be replaced.

It’s not the strikeouts, it’s the outs. Too many of them.

’10 Stubbs is ok. ’11 Stubbs is not. Should we cut bait?

A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Nov 7, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I think we can except (or strongly hope) he will be better, because he has been. In 2010.

One good year and one bad year, when a player is pre-arb, is WAY too early to cut bait.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

I hope you are correct.

One last bit of food for thought: we don’t need an elite defensive CF. Average range is plenty for our park.

A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Nov 7, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Hi

C!!!

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 12:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

In other words

We should ignore everything Stubbs does well, and obsess on the things he doesn’t. Do I have that right?

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey, there's no need to be so confrontational

Stubbs is coming off a pretty bad year at the plate, and it’s not unreasonable to want him to do better going forward. Yes, he’s still an above average player, but hitting will always be something that is scrutinized by the fans

by DerekH91 on Nov 7, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

There is nothing wrong with Drew Stubbs

Nothing. He doesn’t need to improve to keep his job, the Reds have a number of other positions they need to worry about ahead of CF, and if he’s underachieved, other players have underachieved more.

Players help a team in a number of ways. To obsess on the one thing Stubbs doesn’t do well while ignoring all of the things he does do is the type of thinking that made this team a perennial joke.

Look – everyone would like a 5 win player at every position, but that’s not going to happen unless the team commits to a huge payroll and even then it’s a risky, risky , risky undertaking.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

But you ignored GBSAMMB's main point

which is that it’s possible that Stubb’s strength aren’t the best fit for GABP. He is an elite fielder, but maybe that isn’t quite as important in that stadium with Bruce and maybe Heisey on either side of him.

He’d be a lot more valuable in Petco where he could track down tons of fly balls, stolen bases matter more and he could turn some doubles into triples.

I’m fine with Stubbs as the CF, but if he could bring back a very good pitcher, I’d be OK with Heisey too. They are basically the same player, except Heisey probably has a bit more power and plays worse defense. But that might (MIGHT!) be a better fit for GABP.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

FWIW,

Cam Maybin had a very similar season to Stubbs, but has a higher WAR due to his ballpark.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

That doesn't make a lot of sense.

I’m sorry, but “We don’t need good defenders” is a really silly arguement that’s often used when the numbers don’t back up someone’s pre-conceived notions.

An outfield of young Barry Bonds, young Willie Mays, and young Ichiro! Suzuki won’t get to every ball hit. A better defender is always more valuable.

Further, from the glossary at fangraphs: “WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.” In other words, the WAR value for Stubbs is already adjusted (both offensively and defensively) for where he plays.

There is nothing wrong with Drew Stubbs as the starting CF.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

But you are convoluting what I said

I’m not saying you don’t need good defenders. I’m saying you don’t HAVE to have elite defenders at every position.

Part of the reason we are OK with Alonso in LF is that Stubbs can cover for him a bit. Well, if you have 2 very good defenders in LF/RF, maybe you don’t need a guy who gets to all of those gap balls in CF, because the LF/RF get to a lot of them anyway. So if you sacrifice some defense in CF, which ends up not being a big sacrifice because of who is around him, in order to get some more offense, then it’s a nice tradeoff.

Now, I’m not saying that Heisey is definitely that guy, but in theory, it makes sense.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Except:

If Heisey is in CF, that means you’ve made defense worse in both LF (where Heisey will never play and Alonzo always will) and CF (where Stubbs will never play). You’re now hoping the increase in offense from Alonzo over Stubbs (hitting and baserunning, plus half the baserunning difference of Stubbs over Heisey) is at least as much as the decrease in defense from Stubbs CF/half Heisey LF to Heisey CF/Alonzo LF.

This is so much like the arguements people made when they wanted to run Dunn out of town. Dunn had one year in Cinci where his walks and power didn’t make up for his contact and defenive issues, but to hear some talk he was the single player holding the Reds back. Except for ’06 he was a 2.5+ win/season player for the Reds, as as much as a 5 win player taking everything into account.

Do I wish Stubbs made better contact? Of course I do – it would make him a better ballplayer; I also wish he mowed my lawn for me, because that would also make him more valuable. The bottom line is that he’s a good ballplayer the way he is.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Once again, for about the 10th time

I’m not saying it’s definitely the solution in Cincy. I’m saying, in theory, it’s possible.

For example, if Heisey moves to CF, I’d want them to sign a real LFer.

And you need to stop with the strawman. No one is saying Stubbs is the problem with the team. I have said that I’m fine with him in CF.

But it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Stubbs’ skills aren’t a perfect fit for GABP. Just like Dunn’s skills kind of were a perfect fit for that park.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

OK

So this unneeded makes the team better as long as they make other unneeded moves.

And Glen Braggs is certainly saying Stubbs is a, if not the, problem:

We should do better than that.

But if we can’t expect him to be better, he has to be replaced.

’10 Stubbs is ok. ’11 Stubbs is not. Should we cut bait?

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, I also said that I'm fine with him as the starting CF

BUT, if we can stick Heisey there with little overall dropoff, and Stubbs brings back a very good pitcher, that move should be considered.

(Side note: I don’t think Heisey is any better hitter than Stubbs)

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you guys are talking past each other

Everyone here knows that Stubbs isn’t the problem. But a team with a more spacious ballpark might value him more. It’s very possible for an X WAR player to have more value in certain parks. Adrian Beltre spent a good chunk of his prime in Seattle, which is death to RH sluggers. Maybe WAR captures that accurately, maybe it doesn’t. But it doesn’t change the fact that he was better off in a park that doesn’t handicap one of his strengths.

by ken on Nov 7, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

This is exactly what I was saying.

Conversely, a gap doubles hitter at 3B would have a lot more value in Seattle than he would in GABP, or in Texas stadium where Beltre currently rakes.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Pot, meet kettle

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Nov 7, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not ignoring anything

WAR takes everything into account. Taking everything into account, Stubbs is a valuable player (especially at the league minimum salary, which hasn’t even been brought up – replacing him via FA or trade would waste resources) – so far, as valuable as Jay Bruce.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

a player is only as valuable as you allow him to be.

If he’s going to continue to be mis-cast as a leadoff hitter, he will continue to be less valuable than his skills suggest.

This is my problem wit WAR…oftentimes there are better in house options to “replace” a player’s production than simply a replacement level player (i.e. Heisey, who also earns league minimum).

Sure, WAR is roughly comparable for all players, but it itself cannot take into account lineup construction/optimization as well as the marginal difference in an organization’s ability to “replace” said player from their own depth.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 2:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I don't think Stubbs' value changes based on his lineup slot

I’d like to see him leadoff because the Ks do the least damage there. But it’s no biggie. If he regains his power stroke, he would like fine as the no. 5 or 6 guy.

by ken on Nov 7, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

How is this Stubbs' fault?

If he’s a 3 win player, how is it his fault (or a fault of his abilities) if his manager hits him in a sub-optimum spot (even ignoring that where a hitter bats in the lineup almost doesn’t matter, except for the pitcher)? How is another, not as good player suddenly a “better fit” because the manager doens’t use the first player properly?

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I wasn't clear

How is it any player’s fault if he’s misused? And isn’t it a bad move to get rid of (or bench) a superior player simply because he’s being misused by the manager?

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, its inherently a bad move.

But if management is going to continually misuse him, it doesn’t matter, right?

Johnny Gomes is example A of how management can completely misuse a player, thereby thwarting his production and overall value. Had Dusty platooned him against LHP, he would have had a chance to put up a season like he did in 2009.

What I’m saying is that if there’s a player with certain noticeable tendencies playing for management with noticeable tendencies, and those two don’t overlap, moving that player may not be a bad idea.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...

That’s just doing the player a favor, not making the team better.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Totally agree.

It’s just my attempt at connecting the theoretical with reality.

I agree with most of what you’re saying, and I think Stubbs does have plenty of talent on display at all times. I just wonder if there are teams out there that see his 3 WAR seasons and realize that he’s capable of a 5 WAR season and may overpay.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm with Batman.

I would not be surprised to see a team that (over?)values defense make a larger-than-market-value offer for Stubbs. Like the Dodgers or Padres.

A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz. ~Humphrey Bogart

by PeteyHendrix on Nov 7, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

The Rays?

They heart glovey players who have speed on the basepaths.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 8, 2011 1:17 AM EST up reply actions  

I was gonna mention the Mariners, too.

Guttierez fell off a cliff last year. Ichiro hit .272 /.310 /.335

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 8, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions  

How much longer does he have to improve though? He just turned 27.

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Nov 7, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, Trout is not far off from being an everyday player

If the comparison is legit (a big if, i’ll admit), not long

by DerekH91 on Nov 7, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, oops

I thought you were talking about Cespedes

by DerekH91 on Nov 7, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

What's concerning is that his K rate has trended worse since he arrived

He’s gone from 25 (call-up), to 28, to 30%. At some point, the Ks become too much to overcome.

by ken on Nov 7, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

yup, it's like the word got out and he hasn't adjusted

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Nov 7, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

This is very true.

30% is the absolute upper limit at which the Ks are OK.

And to jch, I don’t think he can improve in the sense of developing as a player, but he could improve back to what he did in 2010—show a bit more pop, and make a bit more contact. I’m not banking on it but I wouldn’t be shocked either.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd say that up to around 38% is acceptable for a bonifide slugger.

But with Stubbs’ not-overwhleming power, I would consider 30% or more to be an uncomfortable number. But strikeouts are overblown. When Stubbs strikes out, he avoids hitting into a DP exactly 100% of the time.

If Stubbs gets on base at a .370 clip, I don’t care if he strikes out every single other at-bat. Also, 200 hits and 400 strikeouts works just fine.

A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz. ~Humphrey Bogart

by PeteyHendrix on Nov 7, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Right

I’m not worried about strikeouts at all. What I am worried about is the decrease in power. His OBP is pretty much the same as last year (.329 vs. .321, in a more depressed run environment), but his slugging went down 80 freaking points. I don’t know what that is. His LD% went up and his BABIP went up, but his HR/FB went down a bit and his ISO went down tremendously. I just have no idea what happened to him. But I hope it doesn’t last.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 7, 2011 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Stubbs had a piss poor 2011

where’d the power go?

he was below average as a whole

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Nov 7, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

???

Stubbs is only 1.9 WAR for his offense – he added another whole win for his defense, per BBRef. Baseball Reference says 2.9, and Fangraphs says 2.6 WAR overall this season.

Someone who is a 2 win player is starter-caliber, period. You can’t have an All-Star at every position, unless you’re willing to have a NYY/BOS type payroll.

He was 3rd in the league in outs because more than 70% of his PA were in the #1 (459 PA) or #2 (27 PA) spots. It’s not his fault Dusty hit him there.

Total Zone (which is really close to what BBRef uses) thinks Stubbs is, and always has been, an excellent fielder. UZR has never been thought of as bulletproof.

Finally, I’ll repeat something I posted before: By bWAR, Stubbs has been more valuable than Jay Bruce each of the past 3 seasons, and 3.7 WAR more over his career even though Bruce has played a whole extra season. fWAR says Bruce has been worth about 3.3 more WAR than Stubbs, with 0.9 of that from his “extra” season. Why aren’t you screaming about dumping Bruce?

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

2 win player is the definition of an average starter, not all star.

Also, I’m wary of someone who gets almost all of his from playing almost every day in CF, and adds none by being particularly good at it.

Still, I agree. The Reds have much bigger problems than Stubbs.

(FWIW, I think he’s a much better fielder than FG gives him credit for)

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I just wanna see either his OBP significantly increase, or his SLG significantly increase

one or the other, and get his OPS well North of .750

please?

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Nov 7, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

for the record

both would be okay, too.

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on Nov 8, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions  

can't mobile rec this enough

It’s not about putting pretty numbers on the back of the baseball card. It’s about winning games. Drew Stubbs does more to help the Reds win games than all but one, maybe two, of their position players.

by poojols on Nov 7, 2011 10:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

My biggest problem with the article is that it didn't occur to Doc that many, many coaches have tried to get Stubbs to K less

From college through the bigs, that’s been a part of Drew’s game. As I recall they tried to make him more of a slap hitter in Louisville and it didn’t work out.

If Doc can think of a high-strikeout (25%+) player who meaningfully reduced his Ks and improved his overall game – and someone who’s played in the last twenty years – I’d love to hear about it. What Matty Alou did fifty years ago is irrelevant.

by ken on Nov 7, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

You gotta admit though....

Adam Dunn sneaking in there at #14 while only 31 years old is pretty impressive. :)

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Nov 7, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Official Drew Stubbs Comparison Mike Cameron is on there,

so, well, that’s good to know.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

So this is interesting

Yoenis Cespedes is a Cuban outfielder, and he’s being billed as the “hitting Aroldis Chapman”. He had a workout showcase and is hoping to make something similar to the $30 million Chapman got from the Reds. Some have said he’s Mike Trout with less speed but more power.

So, should Walt go after him? He can play CF, so I’m sure he’d be an awesome LFer too. He’s supposedly 26, so probably doesn’t have much development left, and could probably contribute this year. Handing him Chapman’s exact contract wouldn’t be all that risky, and wouldn’t come close to breaking the bank this season.

If nothing else, they should sign him because of this fantastic promo video.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 10:20 AM EST reply actions  

Agreed on all counts,

but I doubt he gets Chapman’s exact contract for the reason you mentioned. 26 year old hitting prospects are a lot less risky than 22 year old pitching prospects. Dudes gonna get paid.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

No.
  1. Chapman didn’t just waltz into the majors. He hasn’t exactly been lights out after 2 seasons, and he’s still being paid for his potential. At 23, though, there’s still room for improvement.
  2. Mike Trout, likewise, isn’t a good MLB player yet. Sure Trout’s young, but if Cespedes is at the same place as Trout right now, he’s still not MLB ready.

Given those 2 things, you’re paying $5M/yr for a guy who’s probably not a starting MLB player and is probably as good as he’ll ever be.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

My point

As a 26 year old, I’d feel alot more comfortable dumping money into him if people were saying “He’s as good as Chris Heisey” than “He has the tools of Mike Trout”.

Chris Heisey can play at the ML level; right now, Mike Trout can’t. If Cespedes were in the minor legue system, he wouldn’t be thought of as a prospect because of his age.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

With international players you can never know for sure

So, you either roll the dice or you don’t. I don’t think anyone’s regretting signing Chapman.

A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Nov 7, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Yep. And if you check out the promo video, the tools are absolutely legit.

And the in game clips from the WBC show he can hit good pitching. I’d definitely take a flyer on him.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Tools are legit?

How quickly people forget Jim Bowden’s Cast of 1000 Toolsy Outfielders.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Nov 7, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Cool. Let's just sign Juan Pierre and be done with it.

He’s a proven major leaguer, after all.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

That is interesting

I saw this promo video for a pitcher trying to make it back to the majors. I think Walt should at least kick the tires on him.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
Crum-Bum Beat

by -ManBearPig on Nov 7, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Yulieski Gourriel (sp?), too.

That guy was all the rage at the first WBC…I guess he just caught the Justissarian rage and decided Cuba was just too good to give up.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 12:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Christopher Cross on a highlight video???????? AMAZING!

"I slyde my boehner into sexsalad...."
Sounds like a johnu1 production. --jch24

by GrooveLeg on Nov 7, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Did it make you wanna jump, jump?

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Nov 7, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Because getting caught between

the moon and New York City is wiggity, wiggity wack.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Nov 7, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I know it's crazy

duhlee dat.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Nov 7, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Did anyone see any of the Taiwan games?

I was watching a little of it last night, before my roommate shamed me into turning it off, and man oh man was the announcing bad. It was Greg Amsinger and Larry Bowa in the booth. It almost made me take back all the terrible things I’ve said about Cowboy and tHom.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
Crum-Bum Beat

by -ManBearPig on Nov 7, 2011 11:39 AM EST reply actions  

well played

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
Crum-Bum Beat

by -ManBearPig on Nov 7, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

coincidentally

I was just thinking that maybe Paul Janish should cut back on the wrist exercises.

He reportedly worked very hard to strengthen his wrists in the off-season last year, and this year. No one worked harder, the Reds announcers said. (They thought he was exhausting himself in the weight room, and didn’t have anything left for the actual game.)

But…it didn’t work. He hit better last season, with his weak wrists, including more home runs.

There’s a trade off between strength and speed. Maybe for a guy like Janish, who doesn’t have a super quick bat to begin with, strengthening his wrists ended up slowing down his bat too much.

Whatever he was doing this year clearly wasn’t working.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 7, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions  

or he's just a well below average hitter

who’s 30 and not going to improve anymore.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 12:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Perhaps, but pitchers pounding him inside the zone probably had the bigger impact

He saw a lot more fastballs and cutters in the zone this season. I wish I could see a chart of how he did per strike zone quadrant, but overall he swung more often but made less contact.

by ken on Nov 7, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

you mean

like Fox’s Hot Zone?

I wish they kept previous year’s charts, for comparison purposes.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 7, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting

Looks like the lower stuff gave him the most problems.

by ken on Nov 7, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

One thing that’s striking about this season is that he was worse against lefties than righties. Dusty was talking about batting him second against lefties at the beginning of the year, but ended up sitting him against lefties. Maybe it was just a fluke; it evened out a bit as the season went on. But maybe the scouts found out he can’t hit the low ball, even from a lefty?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 7, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh Please Oh Please Oh Please

FG thinks the Rays would be best off trading David Price.

The best part of the article? It specifically mentions 1B and C as areas the Rays need to improve.

WALT!! ARE YOU LISTENING?!?!

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 2:59 PM EST reply actions  

Also, given the argument from yesterday, I feel compelled to admit

that David Price is one of the only players I’d gladly trade Mesoraco for.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 7, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Price is a player you give a true haul in prospects for.

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Nov 7, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

No doubt.

When it comes to a trade for Price, Meso and Yonder would be the obvious starting point. I’m not sure what else it would take.

by sexsalad on Nov 7, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

/frission of excitement

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, please.

I’d be willing to part with just about anyone if it brought back Price.

by sexsalad on Nov 7, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Fangraphs reads Red Reporter

we now have proof

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Nov 8, 2011 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

So we signed Cespedes

He came to Cincy because of Chapman and he likes the C on the caps. He is our solution in left field. Also, we traded Alonso and Grandal to the Giants for Lincecum. Now our offseason is done.

Cingrani for 2012 Closer!

by OGC Reds on Nov 7, 2011 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

x

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

IDGI

Why is somebody wiping their ass on the bowling lane?

Cingrani for 2012 Closer!

by OGC Reds on Nov 7, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Just announced:

The Cincinnati Reds have just traded 2011 3rd round draft pick Tony Cingrani to the Tigers for Justin Verlander. Very lop-sided trade on Cincinnati’s part by giving up top-tier talent like Cingrani for Verlander. But what has been done is done.

Cingrani for 2012 Closer!

by OGC Reds on Nov 7, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I just want Stubbs to walk less.

How can you argue with that???

Still not a candidate.

by Gray on Nov 7, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Paul Janish would be an all-star

if only he hit better.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 7, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Yonder would be MVP

if he could catch and throw.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

not at all

What about his tigrmetrics? Young hottie or balding accountant type?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 7, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

It's the difference between cap or no cap.

Is there a mod so powerful he can ban himself?

by andromache on Nov 7, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

*

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Nov 7, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

He does look nice in that photo

Though I dunno about a plaid shirt with a pinstriped suit.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 8, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions  

he actually does look better here

than he does in uniform, I guess that means no cap is OK at the right angle

by Red_Poodle on Nov 8, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

even with a cap

He’s always reminded me of Smilin’ Bob, the Enzyte guy.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 8, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

WOOOOO!

This photo is going directly to the spank bank!

A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz. ~Humphrey Bogart

by PeteyHendrix on Nov 8, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Cards fan here

Just wanted to wish you guys the best of luck this offseason and next year. NL Central’s gonna be a beeyotch in ‘12. It won’t be easy at all for el Birdos to defend their 11th World Championship and second in 5 years. I know the Reds will be a lot better, so will the Cubs. Will not be an easy road for the World Champion Cards.

scrappy, scrappy, scrappy ball club

by brockflood on Nov 7, 2011 7:55 PM EST reply actions  

Fuck off, WLB.

I’m kidding, I’m kidding. But really, thanks.

by sexsalad on Nov 7, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL, no prob

scrappy, scrappy, scrappy ball club

by brockflood on Nov 7, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

it'll be tougher, sure.

But there’s the chance Greinke has a Cy Young caliber year, Gallardo and Marcum are solid, and one of McGehee/Hart/Weeks steps up to be a 30/100 type player to compliment Braun.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 7, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

uh oh, he came here for top grade analysis?

Quick, somebody poke JinAZ and wake him from his nap.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 7, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe analysis is like maple syrup.

Where things are backwards. Maybe “top grade” actually means “not as good as bottom grade.”

by the finest muffins on Nov 7, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

also, typically the team with most runs wins

as long as the game is regulation. and the umpires show up. if no umpires show up, all bets are off.

scrappy, scrappy, scrappy ball club

by brockflood on Nov 7, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

My best friends just went to Vermont and brought me back

some fancy maple syrup. “Fancy” not just because it’s a million times better than Mrs. Butterworth. It’s also its grade, though I’m not clear where “fancy” falls on the A-D grading scale. Ooh, maybe we have fancy analysis here at Red Reporter.

by the finest muffins on Nov 7, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

these?

Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."

by ChiDa on Nov 8, 2011 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Fancy is Light A

Grade B is way more maple-y and less sweet. This website says “only for baked goods” but I love it on pancakes, especially pumpkin pancakes. It’s less sweet, but has a fuller flavor. You can find it at Trader Joe’s, I know, and maybe some other places.

A couple of summers ago I went to Nova Scotia. Among other things we stayed overnight at a lighthouse and ate at an all-maple restaurant. For being a $300 round trip from New York, I really can’t recommend a better vacation location.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 8, 2011 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I think I'm in love with Newfoundland

it’s like Maine, before it got all touristy.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 8, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

I went there, too (I think I've mentioned this before).

I’m going to Maine this winter. I’m pretty excited, actually.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 8, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I chuckled. :)

A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz. ~Humphrey Bogart

by PeteyHendrix on Nov 8, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

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