Reconciling Disappointment, Part 7

Position: Center Field

2011 Innings breakdown: Drew Stubbs - 91%

                                            Chris Heisey - 8%

                                            Dave Sappelt - 1%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average center field batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Stubbs - not yet arbitration eligible

Heisey - not yet arbitration eligible

Sappelt - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Ryan LaMarre - age 22, 720 OPS at A+, AA

Denis Phipps - age 25, 924 OPS at AA, AAA

Quintin Berry - age 26, 774 OPS at AA, AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -1

Brief summary of 2011: A painful regression in nearly every way.  This time last year, I wrote that over the next 4-5 years, 2010 would be Stubbs's floor.  Well.  The hitting numbers are obvious enough, but here's a defensive stat that lends itself to head scratching: Stubbs played roughly 100 more innings in 2011 than in 2010, all in centerfield.  The respective pitching staffs were within 18 recorded strikeouts of each other, with the 2010 staff missing the slightly higher number of bats.  Meaning that Stubbs had somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 more theoretical opportunities to catch a fly ball.  Instead, he made 14 fewer putouts in 2011.  Color me baffled.

Way too early knee-jerk outlook for 2012: I'm calling a bounce-back, while scaling back on the best-case expectations.  There are too many holes in Stubbs's swing for a 30 HR season, but 25 could be doable.  Similarly, while the speed tantalizes, the strikeouts leave doubt that anything better than a .275 average is possible.  He probably never reaches an 800 OPS, but he'll get as close as he ever will next year.

Comparable industry: It has such an appeal, in theory.  If evening news programs are important, but flawed due to the limitations of the half hour time slot, then round-the-clock news coverage on the various cable channels must be indispensable.  Experienced and intelligent people from varied backgrounds are interviewed for their opinions on the most important items of the day, as seasoned talking heads moderate, keeping their well-manicured fingers on the pulse of the people, large and small.  Some things work, and in the right moments, the purpose of these channels is clear.  You want the damn things to be a vital part of America's daily life, but you can't remember the last time you didn't walk away from the program slightly dumber than before.