Reconciling Disappointment, Part 6

 

Position: Shortstop

2011 Innings breakdown: Paul Janish - 51%

                                            Edgar Renteria - 43%

                                            Zack Cozart - 5%

                                            Chris Valaika - 1%                                         

                                            Todd Frazier - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

593

60

141

25

1

7

55

6

3

37

104

.238

.285

.317

.602

BABIP

Contact Rate

Walk Rate

Batting Eye

SBO

RC/G

.280

82.4%

5.8%

0.36

6.6%

2.78

2011 Composite NL average shortstop batting line (over 650 PA):

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

593

71

155

29

4

10

58

17

6

44

98

.261

.314

.374

.688

BABIP

Contact Rate

Walk Rate

Batting Eye

SBO

RC/G

.299

83.5%

6.8%

0.45

14.5%

3.90

2012 Contract status:

Janish - arbitration eligible (1st arb year)

Renteria - free agent

Cozart - not yet arbitration eligible

Valaika - not yet arbitration eligible

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Brodie Greene - age 23, 775 OPS at A+, AA

Miguel Rojas - age 22, 641 OPS at Rk, AA

Kris Negron - age 25, 607 OPS at AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -2

Brief summary of 2011: Ye gods.  Paul Janish hearkens the days of yesteryear, when the good-field/no-hit shortstops were a respectable part of a balanced team.  That's not a compliment.  Win Shares doesn't get a whole lot of play here, or anywhere, nowadays.  It's a metric with a very low replacement value level, which is therefore useful for producing at least one shock-value nugget: Win Shares tagged Janish as having negative value with the bat this year, something that almost never happens for in-the-field regulars.  Another way to put it: Renteria was no great shakes, hoisting an OPS of 654 with him.  Yet he represented a 1.5 RC/G upgrade over his counterpart.

Way too early knee-jerk outlook for 2012: Zack Cozart played in eleven games for the Reds last year; 38 plate appearances.  Encapsulated in those games is the sole source of optimism for the position next year.  Parents of small children or those who have not yet consumed enough mind-altering pharmaceuticals to still recall their pre-school age years will know the Sesame Street game in which three similar objects are contrasted with a fourth, non-similar object.  The game is so easy; I totally nail the right answer every time.  Anyways, Paul Janish now has four seasons of record in MLB-land.  His OPS+ marks: 37, 60, 93, 43.  Which one doesn't belong?  Now that he's in danger of being paid real dollars, he's also in danger of not being paid at all.  Put the over/under on his future MLB at-bats at 100...if they're with the Reds, they'll be slightly better than the 2011 level, but only because he's nearing an semi-absolute floor.  Still not the answer.  Renteria is out the door, of course, but his trendlines are clear: also not an answer.  Regarding Cozart, I've got nothing.  He provides hope, however long the odds. 

Comparable industry: Starting in the 1960s, carrying strong through the 70s and 80s, and peaking in the 1990s, retail music stores were a sure-fire winner.  The merchandise was both cool and constantly changing, meaning the two optimal connections were present: a youthful customer base and a repeatable business model. With the proliferation of shopping malls, the stores were constantly among the most crowded, marking themselves as a key hangout of teens.  They were easy to browse, and the selection and relatively low-cost merchandise made it difficult for any shopper to leave without buying something.  With the advent of file sharing and mp3 players, the bottom has dropped out of these stores.  Walk in on a random shopping day, and the clientele is likely to be sparse, and...of an advanced age.  Retail Death!

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