Reconciling Disappointment, Part 3

I love the notion that each position contributes some change in # of wins from the prior year, and I think that’s where this series is awesome. I like seeing the comparison to the league average too, and thinks it frames the discussion well.

One suggestion though, and I don’t know how best to do it… I’d like to see the stat line and playing times splits from the prior year in addition to the most recent year. I think it would help see where the extra (or lost) wins came from. Thanks for putting in the effort though!

But to me Jay Bruce is more like retail. He blows up for a great month or two a year (the Christmas season), but otherwise displays mediocre, even a touch disappointing, results. There’s a lot of belly-aching all year about how the economy is underperforming, striking out, if you will. Then, the big product releases come for Christmas – anyone remember this: ? – and we all hope that it’s just a precursor of what’s still to come.

Remember this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDp4Eq4CqA

Its several billion for a new reactor, and they take years to get up and running. If it could all be done privately we’d probably have a lot more nuclear plants but the government needs to be involved in financing of that magnitude. So I think we need some kind of bailout for Bruce to get full value.

I’ve been following him since he was in the minors, and, um, you may have noticed I tend to get attached to players I’ve followed through the minors. And he seems like a really, really nice guy.

But…it’s looking more and more like we may be at peak Jay Bruce. Guys as good as he is, as young as he is, generally don’t improve. They’ve reached their peaks early, rather than being superhuman specimens.

I do think he might hit a few more home runs; but we can probably also expect his defense to drop off. He’s 24 this year, and that’s the defensive peak for outfielders. Plus, he’s put on 30 pounds since hitting the big leagues, if his reported weights are correct (and I suspect it might be more than that).

He’s still a very valuable player, but we probably can’t expect him to carry the team. Any more than he already is, anyway.

I don’t think he’s peaked yet at age 24. Also, when comparing him to previous years, just remember that his wrist injury affected his production a few years ago.

I think he put too much pressure on himself this season to live up to the big contract. Hopefully he’ll work on some things this offseason and come back strong next year.

I agree that he can post even better power numbers in the future, as well.

Have any studies tried to identify when someone is “in the zone”? More specifically, have there been any that tried to determine if young players develop an ability as they age that allows them to get in the zone more regularly and/or stay in the zone longer? Bruce is exceptional when he’s locked in, but mediocre otherwise. To get better, he needs to play at the high level of performance more often.

I’ll make you a bet right now
If Jay Bruce has an OPS+ of 127 or lower at the end of the 2011 season, I will change my avatar to an image of your choice until Opening Day 2012.

If Jay Bruce has an OPS+ of 128 or higher at the end of the 2011 season, you will change your avatar to an image of my choice until Opening Day 2012.

Deal?

“He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby.” — GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
by jch24 on Dec 13, 2010 3:33 AM EST up Rec Flag