Reconciling Disappointment, Part 3

Position: Right Field

2011 Innings breakdown: Jay Bruce - 93%

                                            Chris Heisey - 5%

                                            Fred Lewis - 1%

                                            Jeremy Hermida - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

574

82

146

26

2

31

95

8

7

68

155

.255

.338

.470

.808

BABIP

Contact Rate

Walk Rate

Batting Eye

SBO

RC/G

.297

73.0%

10.4%

0.44

9.5%

5.45

2011 Composite NL average right field batting line (over 650 PA):

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

577

78

156

32

4

21

75

11

5

61

128

.271

.345

.449

.794

BABIP

Contact Rate

Walk Rate

Batting Eye

SBO

RC/G

.317

77.7%

9.3%

0.47

9.7%

5.24

2012 Contract status:

Bruce - signed through 2016

Heisey - not yet arbitration eligible

Lewis - arbitration eligible (2nd arb year)

Hermida - with San Diego

Advanced minor league depth:

Stephen Hunt - age 22, 795 OPS at A+

Felix Perez - age 26, 643 OPS at AA, AAA

Andrew Means - age 24, 632 OS at A+

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -0

Brief summary of 2011: Bruce didn’t exactly take a step back (OPS+ was just five points lower in 2011 than in 2010), but neither did he take the quantum jump towards superduperstardom that most of us predicted.  On the one hand, Bruce stayed healthy all year.  On the other hand, his defensive prowess took a significant and noticeable and quantifiable dip.  Amidst the ups and downs is the reality that Bruce’s basic peripherals stayed nearly unchanged from the prior year, lending to the possibility that this is exactly who Bruce is, with little more or less to come.

 

Way too early knee-jerk outlook for 2012: There is still natural upside here, to be experienced as the age curve typically is.  However, the chances of Bruce ever being league MVP probably need to be strongly tempered.  Next year is an improvement over this, but not a drastic one.  40 HR is still a possibility at some point, but not in 2012.

 

Comparable industry: For years, even decades, some of the smartest people in the world have pointed at nuclear power as the energy solution for a world in need of solutions.  It’s clean and efficient, they say, and is in little danger of becoming scarce.  In the era of man-made global warming, and no blood for oil, nuclear energy is the slam dunk to end ‘em all.  And yet.  Whether driven by fear of reactor meltdown or an indelible link between energy source and rogue weaponry, the movement has never fully materialized.  The supporters will continue to beat the drum, the naysayers will continue to point out flaws in the argument, and the rest of us will sit in suspense, wondering which of the smart people is more correct.

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