Red Reposter - Again with the speculation

by ken on Nov 14, 2011 12:00 PM EST in News

You won't like him when he's angry, because it means he just gave up runs.

The Reds have no money and are talking to nobody
Walt Jocketty checked again under the couch cushions, but the money for a splashy free agent signing isn't there. Per Fay, Jocketty spent last week in budget meetings and hasn't even reached out to representatives for Phillips or Cordero. He'll be in Milwaukee this week for the GM meetings (the winter meetings, when most of the action occurs, is next month). "We’d love to [sign C.J. Wilson or Jose Reyes] but we won’t be doing anything like that. We’ve got to be more creative."
Brodie Greene shines; other Fall League notes
Brodie Greene, a middle-IF who spent most of the season at Bakersfield, drove in three on Saturday with a couple of hits in an 8-2 Desert Dogs win. In 19 AFL games, Brodie's slashing .301/.386/.466 with 13 RBIs. Meanwhile, Brad Boxberger pitched a scoreless inning in the Futures Game. Foxy Boxy blogged that he managed to "not make my parents and girlfriend in the stands too nervous" with a 1-2-3 inning. Carson Cistulli notes that the age-advanced Travis Webb has made a strong showing in Arizona this fall. Finally, over in the Dominican League, Juan Francisco is devouring opposing pitchers to the tune of .322/.380./559.
SI suggests Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal
I have my doubts about a smallish, mid-30s pitcher with a bad back. But for one year, it could be worth a shot depending on what Dr. Kremchek has to say. 150 innings with a low-3 ERA might not be the ace we crave, but it would be a boost to the rotation.
Masset's tough year
2011 is one to forget for Nick Masset, but I'm confident we're going to see a rebound. Sheldon points out that the Masset-hound got only four DPs last year, compared to seven in 2010 and 11 in his first full year with the Reds. Given that Masset induced slightly more grounders (50%) in 2011 than in 2010 (47%), I think the fewer DPs was just bad luck. A BABIP forty points higher than 2010 and four balks, which was four more than in the prior two years combined, also point to bad luck. But Masset's performance is worth a closer look given his unusually broad repertoire, decreased K-rate, and his importance to the bullpen. Dusty: "In the case of Masset, it's more of missed location and pitch selection to me, versus a loss of stuff."
#GQSwagShawty at the Golden Gloves
Brandon Phillips displayed his haute couture at the GG ceremony, in what can charitably be described as a non-subtle three-piece. Oh well. Not everyone can dress like Steve Nash. If BP is looking towards relocating to a fashion-forward Canadian market, Toronto might be ~~a good~~ the only choice. According to this Toronto writer, Phillips is "available." There's no cite, not even the oft-quoted Unnamed Source. My guess is that he doesn't realize the Reds picked up the option.

Blue Wahoos frolicking into Pensacola
The enthusiasm surrounding the Reds' new AA affiliate is palpable. Pensacola is building a new stadium, the 5,000-capacity Maritime Park, will boast striking views of both Pensacola Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. 2,100 multi-year season ticket plans have already been sold. HT to the Blog Red Machine.
Yes, another article on the merits of trading Votto
ESPN's David Schoenfield takes a look at recent trade history to determine whether the Reds should deal their MVP. Generally I agree with him - you need stars on contending teams, and there's a lot of risk in hoping that the prospect booty works out. But the best argument against trading Votto is that in order to extract as much talent in such a deal, you have to take on mostly lower-level minor leaguers. Nobody wants to give up more than one Mesoraco-type. But they are occasionally wiling to part with a package of promising A-ballers, like Atlanta did in the Teixeira deal. I don't know about you guys, but I don't want to wait another few years to see how the trade turns out.
Happy birthday, Buck
Happy 100th to John "Buck" O'Neil, the late, great Negro Leaguer, coach, and ambassador of the game. If you haven't yet read Joe Posnanski's The Soul of Baseball, you should do so this winter.
Mmmm ... Poutine
BPro lists some foods they'd like to see at the ballpark, and includes the oft-discussed poutine: This Quebecois combo of French fries topped with cheese curds and brown gravy was a staple of Olympic Stadium in Montreal... poutine in its most basic form is deep-fried tuber, sour milk fats, and beef gravy. This is a dish that lets your cardiologist keep both a wife and mistress in style.
Can you believe it?! Pat Burrell retires
And by "retires," I don't necessarily mean to the boudoir of some local co-ed. Pat the Bat's been fighting a foot injury and has decided to call it quits. A pretty damn good career, both on and off the field.

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Comments

There's a "hangover helper" section over at serious eats.

your talk of poutine reminded me of them.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 14, 2011 12:09 PM EST reply actions

I really like that site, but its too prolific too keep up

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

Has anyone ever suggested that maybe Masset doesn't need to use all his pitches?

Sinker/slider is plenty for a reliever with stuff like his. Seems like he gets into trouble when he mixes in the other stuff.

A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Nov 14, 2011 12:39 PM EST reply actions

available, eh?

Maybe the Reds are willing to trade BP?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST reply actions

I suppose that's possible

but really not likely at all.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 14, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

Hit post before I meant to

The problem with trading him now is that they have no realistic 2B to play in his stead. I suppose they could hope that Frazier could do it, but I really doubt they would do that.

The only way they would think of trading him is if they either got a good young 2B back in the trade or used the freed up money to go buy one. Either way, they are most likely better off just keeping him.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 14, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

maybe he's just out looking for some #mapleshawty to complete him.

Neve Campbell? Emanuelle Chriqui?

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Nov 14, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Tricia Helfer

by DerekH91 on Nov 14, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

OK,somebody 'splain this to me, 'cause I don't get it.

“The Reds have nearly $50 million in contract obligations for 2012 already — Phillips ($12 million), Votto ($9.5 million), Bronson Arroyo ($7 million), Scott Rolen ($6.5 million), Johnny Cueto ($5.4 million), Jay Bruce ($5 million), Aroldis Chapman ($2 million), Ryan Hanigan ($1.2 million), Miguel Cairo ($1 million) and Alonso ($600,000).

Add the salaries for six arbitration-eligible players — Jose Arredondo, Bailey, Bill Bray, Paul Janish, Nick Masset and Volquez — are the Reds will be very near $85 million. Last odd season, they signed Ramon Hernandez for $3 million, Edgar Renertia for $2.1 million and Cairo for $1 million."

I don’t it. The guys not mentioned here won’t cost more than $5M combined. We’re going to spend 25M+ on those six guys? Seriously? Janish and Volquez should get almost nothing, so that leaves the other 4. Which of these guys is worth $5M?

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:17 PM EST reply actions

If you add the six arb guys to the first 10 guys, that leaves 9 roster spots unaccounted for

That’s what you’re missing.

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Nov 14, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

That's the $5M

Let’s see: Hitters: Mesoroco, Cozart, Heisey, END
Pitchers: Wood, Leake, Fisher, LeCure, Ondrusek,

2011 salaries: All of the hitters made $414,000 apiece (except Heisey, who was $419,000 just to confuse people). All of the pitchers were also in the $414-$422K range.

That’s $3.7 million. $50M for the guys under contract. $5M for free agents. Where did the other $25M go?

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

I'll reply to myself...

Arredondo- $480K
Bailey- $414K
Bray- $645K
Janish- $437K
Masset- $1.725M
Volquez- $1.625M

That doesn’t look like $10M to me, even after arbitration. So all 24 guys total is substantially less than $65M.

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

You're also underestimating the arb costs

No way do the Reds get the five guys you listed for $5M. It will be more like 10.

by ken on Nov 14, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sorry, I was not clear.

My estimate was the other 9 players not mentioned would cost about $5M.

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Check out the sidebar

For the payroll projection.

The estimate comes to about 76. Throw in Coco’s 1M buyout and it’s 77. So that leaves about 8M for a FA, if Fay’s estimate is right..

by ken on Nov 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, I see.

Thanks, that does explain it. The numbers didn’t add up because the numbers were wrong.

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

Jinx

I included a $5M estimate for Cordero there when I calculated it because it looked pretty likely that they’d re-sign him. If you swap that for his $1M buyout, the Reds should have more like $72M.

But I could be off on the estimates. And we also don’t really know what the total spending power is going to be.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

I think your arb estimates are a touch high if anything

by ken on Nov 14, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

It's all very confusing

I think the hard part, though, is finding out what payroll is going to be in ’12 and making sure that calculation comes from the same place as these estimates.

I really don’t know how to get there and have a margin of error in the $1-2M range.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

Here's our take on it

Payroll projection

if you add up all the MLB salaries + prorated bonuses, the Reds are at a little over $70M before signing Cordero. We might also be underestimating arb salaries.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

But, but but....

I thought we were going to spend $85M. By your estimate, we should have enough to get a good reliever and a good starter. Maybe not Shields and Madson, but good.

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, there should be money for at least a Shields-type starter

I think Walt will get something done. From a marketing perspective, the team needs some kind of jolt to sell tickets or they risk losing the goodwill generated from 2010.

by ken on Nov 14, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Yep, and also from a marketing perspective Walt can't promise anything

I would make a small wager that the Reds will have some new impact player on their roster next year, but they don’t have enough to compete for the big time free agents and they will have to go about it via trading so it is complicated by needing a trading partner.

"Life is such a vapid world pool of nothing"-Eddie Pepitone

by Yossarian22 on Nov 14, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions

It depends on what the baseline is

And that’s kind of a moving target.

I’m comparing MLB salaries and pro-rated bonuses across both years, so by adding $5M to last year (which might be a little generous), you get more like $83M. I’ve got the Reds at around $73M if they forgo Cordero. So maybe they have an upper bound of $10M to spend. It’s probably more like $7-$8M depending on how things break with arb and other calculations that are a little opaque.

It’s probably not worth shelling out free agent dollars for a pitcher, but I think they could go get a good set-up reliever.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

For one thing

The Reds have $62.8M locked up for 2012 already, not “nearly $50M”.

Volquez made $1.6M & Masset made $1.5M last season. Despite what you may believe they deserve, neither will have paycuts. Let’s assume a small raise up to $2M. Bailey will get around the $1.5M that Volquez made, but we’ll be conservative at $1.2M. Bray will probably make comparable money, but we’ll say $1M. Arredondo & Janish we’ll put at $800k. So, conservatively, we’re $7.8M for those guys. Not a huge boost over the $5M you assume, but I also feel like it’s very conservative. I wouldn’t be surprised if both Volquez & Masset are over $3M next year.

Granted, that only puts the team at around $71M. Add in the league mins and I think you’re looking at $75M before we hit the free agent market.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Nov 14, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, well, that would explain it.

But the players they mention only total a little more than $50M. Where is the other $10M locked up from?

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Fay has slightly different numbers for just about every player than Cots, some of which is deferred money, I'd guess

So, maybe it is only $50M. It depends on whose numbers are right and how the Reds account for deferred contracts.
This is what Cots has:

Phillips, Brandon   $12,250,000 
Arroyo, Bronson     $12,000,000 
Votto, Joey         $11,500,000 
Rolen, Scott         $8,166,667 
Cueto, Johnny        $5,400,000 
Bruce, Jay           $5,041,667 
Chapman, Aroldis     $4,708,333 
Alonso, Yonder       $1,400,000 
Hanigan, Ryan        $1,300,000 
Cairo, Miguel        $1,000,000

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Nov 14, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Okay, so I guess the Cots spreadsheet is messed up....

It doesn’t even match their site….sigh.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Nov 14, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I encountered the same

This is what makes it frustrating. Deferred money and bonuses are calculated differently I think. There’s also no mention of buyout money factoring into last year’s payroll, which is crucial for finding the baseline from which they’re adding $5M or so.

I think the best anyone can do is say with some degree of certainty that, after arb cases and league minimum, they have between $7-10M to spend this offseason.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

But your numbers are more like $10M-$15M.

Your numbers include arb. cases and league minimums already.

Let me ask you this: using the same Cots numbers and estimates, how much did you calculate the Reds salary in 2011 was? It’s probably more accurate to calculate the deltas than the base

by MatthewH on Nov 14, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Our numbers say about $10-11M if you remove Cordero

And that’s IF payroll increases by $5M. Also, if I’m wrong about last year’s baseline for the $5M increase, that number could shrink to $7-8M. I could easily be wrong.

That’s why it’s more of a cone of possibility. And I understand why the Reds are saying they’re not going after CJ Wilson.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW

Here are some of the differences in the numbers I listed and the ones Fay listed:

BP – GG award bonus, I think
Arroyo – deferred money
Votto – signing bonus
Rolen – signing bonus (converted from original 2010 salary)
Bruce- ?
Chapman – signing bonus
Alonso – ? (signing bonus & college bonus, but I doubt that makes up for $800k)
Hanigan – signing bonus.

Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Nov 14, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

I tried to incorporate the singing bonuses that would be paid in '12

which I think Fay did too.

But wouldn’t BP’s GG money be paid in ’11?

I’m guessing there’s no authority on this who would also talk in-depth about the Reds books to a blog.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

I'm guessing the singing bonuses shouldn't be too high. Especially for Arroyo. He's terrible.

/obligatory’d.

Also, regardless of the final numbers, there is clearly enough money to trade for a top starter. I still think the availability of said starter is going to hamper Walt much more than money.

I’m also still hanging my hat on Shields or Price.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Nov 14, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I think they get a trade done

But it seems like they could end up being well south of the Greinke trade.

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

just as long as its north of the Derek Lowe trade.

Y’know, roughly longitudinally equivalent to the Beckett or Haren trades.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 14, 2011 3:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Part of the problem

I can’t really tell who’s available yet. The Reds have been in on Cliff Lee, Ubaldo Jimenez, possibly other top of rotations starters over the last two seasons. Will they be rewarded for balking or is this going to be a climate where they’re finally desperate and either no aces are really available or they seriously overpay because they’re desperate?

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 14, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

valid.

Perhaps you should tune in for the upcoming 2nd installment of Trade Targets…!

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Nov 14, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Players in arbitration can see up to a 10% pay cut, correct?

you do not think that Volquez who hasn’t pitched a full season in Major Leagues since 2008 wouldn’t be one of the rare players who’s pay is cut?

I assume you are correct because you have paid attention to baseball much longer than I have and you are in a position that also puts you “in the know”. But if Volquez isn’t one of the few players who doesn’t see a pay cut in arbitration how bad does a player have to be?

"Life is such a vapid world pool of nothing"-Eddie Pepitone

by Yossarian22 on Nov 14, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions