2011 Reds, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 13, 2011 1:39 AM EST

Here is a look at how the Reds 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Reds games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5157 which translates to an expected win total of 83.54 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Reds game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5197 or 84.19 wins. The Reds actually went 79-83 on the season. It appears that the Reds underplayed their likely true talent level as a team this past year. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Reds were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	CIN Win Perc	Sim CIN Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	04-06-11	Neslon Figueroa	Edinson Volquez	HOU	CIN	CIN	65.217	65.217	66.268	CIN	4	12	16
2	05-04-11	Aneury Rodriguez	Travis Wood	HOU	CIN	CIN	65.096	65.096	69.977	CIN	2	3	5
3	05-19-2011	James McDonald	Johnny Cueto	PIT	CIN	CIN	63.57	63.57	64.13	PIT	5	3	8
4	05-03-11	J.A. Happ	Mike Leake	HOU	CIN	CIN	63.235	63.235	64.384	HOU	10	4	14
5	09-14-2011	Casey Coleman	Johnny Cueto	CHN	CIN	CIN	63.168	63.168	63.993	CIN	2	7	9
6	07-03-11	Mitch Talbot	Mike Leake	CLE	CIN	CIN	62.825	62.825	64.237	CIN	5	7	12
7	04-17-2011	Jeff Karstens	Edinson Volquez	PIT	CIN	CIN	62.335	62.335	62.77	PIT	7	6	13
8	08-10-11	Kevin Millwood	Mike Leake	COL	CIN	CIN	61.832	61.832	56.615	CIN	2	3	5
9	04-15-2011	Charlie Morton	Bronson Arroyo	PIT	CIN	CIN	61.538	61.538	59.27	PIT	6	1	7
10	09-20-2011	Bud Norris	Homer Bailey	HOU	CIN	CIN	61.39	61.39	63.52	CIN	4	6	10
11	04-18-2011	Kevin Correia	Travis Wood	PIT	CIN	CIN	61.165	61.165	67.66	PIT	9	3	12
12	06-07-11	Doug Davis	Edinson Volquez	CHN	CIN	CIN	61.014	61.014	62.349	CIN	2	8	10
13	07-15-2011	Jake Westbrook	Johnny Cueto	STL	CIN	CIN	60.239	60.239	53.601	CIN	5	6	11
14	07-02-11	Fausto Carmona	Homer Bailey	CLE	CIN	CIN	60.08	60.08	61.863	CLE	3	1	4
15	09-12-11	Rodrigo Lopez	Dontrelle Willis	CHN	CIN	CIN	60.08	60.08	64.781	CHN	12	8	20
16	04-05-11	J.A. Happ	Mike Leake	HOU	CIN	CIN	59.839	59.839	63.761	CIN	2	8	10
17	07-31-2011	Barry Zito	Johnny Cueto	SF	CIN	CIN	59.759	59.759	60.303	CIN	0	9	9
18	05-05-11	Brett Myers	Homer Bailey	HOU	CIN	CIN	59.677	59.677	62.643	CIN	10	4	14
19	04-20-2011	Ian Kennedy	Bronson Arroyo	ARI	CIN	CIN	59.677	59.677	60.783	ARI	3	1	4
20	04-19-2011	Armando Galarraga	Sam LeCure	ARI	CIN	CIN	59.596	59.596	65.866	ARI	5	4	9
21	08-28-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Johnny Cueto	WAS	CIN	CIN	59.596	59.596	56.591	CIN	4	5	9
22	06-17-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Mike Leake	TOR	CIN	CIN	59.514	59.514	61.955	TOR	3	2	5
23	09-19-2011	J.A. Happ	Dontrelle Willis	HOU	CIN	CIN	59.514	59.514	64.83	HOU	3	2	5
24	09-15-2011	Randy Wells	Homer Bailey	CHN	CIN	CIN	59.35	59.35	63.294	CIN	6	8	14
25	05-18-2011	Charlie Morton	Bronson Arroyo	PIT	CIN	CIN	59.184	59.184	60.391	PIT	5	0	5
26	08-27-2011	Ross Detwiler	Mike Leake	WAS	CIN	CIN	59.1	59.1	61.581	CIN	3	6	9
27	07-26-2011	John Niese	Johnny Cueto	NYN	CIN	CIN	58.592	58.592	49.997	NYN	8	6	14
28	04-29-2011	Javier Vazquez	Travis Wood	FLA	CIN	CIN	58.42	58.42	68.019	FLA	7	6	13
29	09-13-2011	Ryan Dempster	Mike Leake	CHN	CIN	CIN	58.42	58.42	53.01	CIN	1	2	3
30	08-14-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Dontrelle Willis	SD	CIN	CIN	58.071	58.071	61.483	SD	7	3	10
31	04-16-2011	James McDonald	Mike Leake	PIT	CIN	CIN	57.983	57.983	59.964	CIN	2	11	13
32	09-21-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Bronson Arroyo	HOU	CIN	CIN	57.983	57.983	61.65	CIN	0	2	2
33	08-06-11	Johnny Cueto	Carlos Zambrano	CIN	CHN	CIN	57.717	57.717	51.521	CHN	4	11	15
34	05-16-2011	Carlos Zambrano	Homer Bailey	CHN	CIN	CIN	57.717	57.717	58.947	CIN	4	7	11
35	08-26-2011	Chien-Ming Wang	Dontrelle Willis	WAS	CIN	CIN	57.537	57.537	64.68	CIN	3	4	7
36	04-07-11	Brett Myers	Sam LeCure	HOU	CIN	CIN	57.447	57.447	58.152	HOU	3	2	5
37	08-09-11	Esmil Rogers	Dontrelle Willis	COL	CIN	CIN	57.356	57.356	50.929	COL	3	2	5
38	07-27-2011	Mike Pelfrey	Bronson Arroyo	NYN	CIN	CIN	57.265	57.265	52.342	NYN	8	2	10
39	07-28-2011	Chris Capuano	Homer Bailey	NYN	CIN	CIN	57.173	57.173	51.992	NYN	10	9	19
40	07-25-2011	R.A. Dickey	Mike Leake	NYN	CIN	CIN	56.989	56.989	54.505	NYN	4	2	6
41	08-17-2011	Johnny Cueto	Ross Detwiler	CIN	WAS	CIN	56.989	56.989	54.064	CIN	2	1	3
42	09-23-2011	Edinson Volquez	Jeff Locke	CIN	PIT	CIN	56.71	56.71	51.67	PIT	3	4	7
43	08-11-11	Jhoulys Chacin	Johnny Cueto	COL	CIN	CIN	56.427	56.427	54.55	CIN	1	2	3
44	05-10-11	Homer Bailey	Brett Myers	CIN	HOU	CIN	56.332	56.332	53.414	CIN	7	3	10
45	06-06-11	Matt Garza	Chad Reineke	CHN	CIN	CIN	56.236	56.236	53.418	CIN	2	8	10
46	08-19-2011	Homer Bailey	Kevin Correia	CIN	PIT	CIN	55.85	55.85	55.326	CIN	11	8	19
47	05-17-2011	Matt Garza	Edinson Volquez	CHN	CIN	CIN	55.752	55.752	53.775	CIN	5	7	12
48	05-07-11	Bronson Arroyo	Casey Coleman	CIN	CHN	CIN	55.654	55.654	51.916	CHN	2	3	5
49	05-09-11	Travis Wood	Aneury Rodriguez	CIN	HOU	CIN	55.654	55.654	59.798	CIN	6	1	7
50	08-16-2011	Mike Leake	Chien-Ming Wang	CIN	WAS	CIN	55.654	55.654	52.676	WAS	4	6	10
51	08-23-2011	Johnny Cueto	Ricky Nolasco	CIN	FLA	CIN	55.357	55.357	48.487	CIN	8	6	14
52	06-03-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Bronson Arroyo	LAN	CIN	CIN	55.056	55.056	57.631	CIN	1	2	3
53	08-13-2011	Tim Stauffer	Homer Bailey	SD	CIN	CIN	55.056	55.056	57.917	CIN	1	13	14
54	06-19-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Bronson Arroyo	TOR	CIN	CIN	54.853	54.853	60.936	CIN	1	2	3
55	07-20-2011	Johnny Cueto	Jeff Karstens	CIN	PIT	CIN	54.853	54.853	57.877	CIN	3	1	4
56	08-03-11	Dontrelle Willis	Jordan Lyles	CIN	HOU	CIN	54.649	54.649	52.192	HOU	4	5	9
57	09-06-11	Mike Leake	Rodrigo Lopez	CIN	CHN	CIN	54.649	54.649	50.102	CIN	4	2	6
58	09-07-11	Johnny Cueto	Ryan Dempster	CIN	CHN	CIN	54.649	54.649	44.396	CHN	3	6	9
59	04-21-2011	Daniel Hudson	Mike Leake	ARI	CIN	CIN	54.649	54.649	58.291	CIN	4	7	11
60	05-14-2011	Kyle McClellan	Johnny Cueto	STL	CIN	CIN	54.649	54.649	54.674	CIN	3	7	10
61	06-20-2011	Ivan Nova	Johnny Cueto	NYA	CIN	CIN	54.649	54.649	55.044	NYA	5	3	8
62	07-01-11	Justin Masterson	Bronson Arroyo	CLE	CIN	CIN	54.442	54.442	49.126	CLE	8	2	10
63	06-18-2011	Brandon Morrow	Edinson Volquez	TOR	CIN	CIN	54.338	54.338	52.255	TOR	4	0	4
64	07-23-2011	Derek Lowe	Homer Bailey	ATL	CIN	CIN	54.233	54.233	52.076	CIN	2	11	13
65	05-13-2011	Kyle Lohse	Bronson Arroyo	STL	CIN	CIN	53.811	53.811	42.099	CIN	5	6	11
66	07-19-2011	Mike Leake	James McDonald	CIN	PIT	CIN	53.811	53.811	53.501	PIT	0	1	1
67	08-08-11	Jason Hammel	Homer Bailey	COL	CIN	CIN	53.596	53.596	53.633	COL	10	7	17
68	09-28-2011	Edinson Volquez	Miguel Batista	CIN	NYN	CIN	53.38	53.38	46.971	NYN	0	3	3
69	06-05-11	Chad Billingsley	Travis Wood	LAN	CIN	CIN	53.162	53.162	62.662	LAN	9	6	15
70	06-24-2011	Edinson Volquez	Chris Jakubauskas	CIN	BAL	CIN	53.162	53.162	53.296	BAL	4	5	9
71	08-21-2011	Mike Leake	James McDonald	CIN	PIT	CIN	53.162	53.162	53.877	CIN	5	4	9
72	09-24-2011	Travis Wood	Brad Lincoln	CIN	PIT	CIN	53.162	53.162	53.47	PIT	3	4	7
73	09-26-2011	Homer Bailey	Chris Schwinden	CIN	NYN	CIN	53.162	53.162	49.065	CIN	6	5	11
74	08-01-11	Bronson Arroyo	Bud Norris	CIN	HOU	CIN	53.052	53.052	47.623	HOU	3	4	7
75	04-03-11	Randy Wolf	Bronson Arroyo	MIL	CIN	CIN	53.052	53.052	63.124	CIN	3	12	15
76	08-02-11	Homer Bailey	Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	HOU	CIN	52.941	52.941	50.803	CIN	5	1	6
77	06-04-11	Clayton Kershaw	Johnny Cueto	LAN	CIN	CIN	52.941	52.941	54.999	LAN	11	8	19
78	08-05-11	Mike Leake	Ryan Dempster	CIN	CHN	CIN	52.719	52.719	43.276	CHN	3	4	7
79	07-30-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Mike Leake	SF	CIN	CIN	52.719	52.719	44.075	CIN	2	7	9
80	05-01-11	Ricky Nolasco	Bronson Arroyo	FLA	CIN	CIN	52.607	52.607	57.236	FLA	9	5	14
81	06-22-2011	Freddy Garcia	Mike Leake	NYA	CIN	CIN	52.381	52.381	51.603	CIN	2	10	12
82	05-11-11	Edinson Volquez	Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	HOU	CIN	52.267	52.267	48.766	HOU	3	4	7
83	04-13-2011	Travis Wood	Tim Stauffer	CIN	SD	CIN	52.267	52.267	52.516	SD	2	3	5
84	03-31-2011	Yovanni Gallardo	Edinson Volquez	MIL	CIN	CIN	52.153	52.153	56.88	CIN	6	7	13
85	04-02-11	Shaun Marcum	Travis Wood	MIL	CIN	CIN	51.691	51.691	65.991	CIN	2	4	6
86	04-10-11	Mike Leake	Joe Saunders	CIN	ARI	CIN	51.574	51.574	54.483	ARI	8	10	18
87	05-30-2011	Chris Narveson	Travis Wood	MIL	CIN	CIN	51.456	51.456	62.268	CIN	3	7	10
88	08-12-11	Mat Latos	Bronson Arroyo	SD	CIN	CIN	51.1	51.1	51.723	CIN	3	5	8
89	04-08-11	Travis Wood	Ian Kennedy	CIN	ARI	CIN	50.98	50.98	56.787	ARI	2	13	15
90	06-22-2011	Freddy Garcia	Mike Leake	NYA	CIN	CIN	50.86	50.86	49.342	NYA	4	2	6
91	07-29-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Dontrelle Willis	SF	CIN	CIN	50.86	50.86	52.016	CIN	3	4	7
92	06-01-11	Shaun Marcum	Mike Leake	MIL	CIN	CIN	50.739	50.739	57.534	CIN	3	4	7
93	06-09-11	Johnny Cueto	Madison Bumgarner	CIN	SF	CIN	50.739	50.739	44.218	CIN	3	0	3
94	06-25-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Brian Matusz	CIN	BAL	CIN	50.739	50.739	47.346	CIN	10	5	15
95	05-20-2011	Travis Wood	Alex White	CIN	CLE	CIN	50.617	50.617	59.764	CLE	4	5	9
96	07-17-2011	Jaime Garcia	Homer Bailey	STL	CIN	CIN	50.495	50.495	41.351	CIN	1	3	4
97	04-09-11	Bronson Arroyo	Daniel Hudson	CIN	ARI	CIN	50.249	50.249	49.591	CIN	6	1	7
98	05-08-11	Johnny Cueto	Ryan Dempster	CIN	CHN	CHN	50	50	48.999	CIN	2	0	2
99	05-21-2011	Homer Bailey	Josh Tomlin	CIN	CLE	CLE	50.495	49.505	57.335	CLE	1	2	3
100	05-22-2011	Edinson Volquez	Carlos Carrasco	CIN	CLE	CLE	50.617	49.383	51.266	CLE	4	12	16
101	07-09-11	Johnny Cueto	Shaun Marcum	CIN	MIL	MIL	50.739	49.261	40.139	CIN	5	4	9
102	06-26-2011	Homer Bailey	Jeremy Guthrie	CIN	BAL	BAL	50.86	49.14	49.675	BAL	5	7	12
103	08-07-11	Bronson Arroyo	Randy Wells	CIN	CHN	CHN	50.98	49.02	47.209	CIN	8	7	15
104	06-12-11	Edinson Volquez	Jonathan Sanchez	CIN	SF	SF	50.98	49.02	44.2	SF	2	4	6
105	05-24-2011	Johnny Cueto	Vance Worley	CIN	PHI	PHI	51.1	48.9	53.637	CIN	6	3	9
106	07-18-2011	Dontrelle Willis	James McDonald	CIN	PIT	PIT	51.1	48.9	50.371	PIT	0	2	2
107	06-08-11	Ryan Dempster	Bronson Arroyo	CHN	CIN	CHN	51.22	48.78	61.146	CHN	4	1	5
108	06-27-2011	Mike Leake	Jeremy Hellickson	CIN	TB	TB	51.338	48.662	50.159	CIN	5	0	5
109	08-20-2011	Dontrelle Willis	Charlie Morton	CIN	PIT	PIT	51.338	48.662	47.867	PIT	3	5	8
110	04-11-11	Edinson Volquez	Mat Latos	CIN	SD	SD	51.456	48.544	43.368	CIN	3	2	5
111	04-24-2011	Sam LeCure	Jake Westbrook	CIN	STL	STL	51.456	48.544	46.962	STL	0	3	3
112	05-15-2011	Chris Carpenter	Travis Wood	STL	CIN	STL	51.456	48.544	58.826	CIN	7	9	16
113	09-16-2011	Randy Wolf	Bronson Arroyo	MIL	CIN	MIL	51.574	48.426	57.018	MIL	6	3	9
114	07-07-11	Homer Bailey	Chris Narveson	CIN	MIL	MIL	52.038	47.962	50.12	MIL	4	5	9
115	04-26-2011	Mike Leake	Marco Estrada	CIN	MIL	MIL	52.267	47.733	55.538	MIL	2	3	5
116	08-24-2011	Homer Bailey	Javier Vazquez	CIN	FLA	FLA	52.267	47.733	47.846	FLA	5	6	11
117	04-12-11	Sam LeCure	Clayton Richard	CIN	SD	SD	52.494	47.506	45.342	CIN	8	2	10
118	06-10-11	Travis Wood	Ryan Vogelsong	CIN	SF	SF	53.162	46.838	48.378	SF	2	3	5
119	09-27-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Chris Capuano	CIN	NYN	NYN	53.162	46.838	41.54	CIN	5	4	9
120	09-11-11	Edinson Volquez	Drew Pomeranz	CIN	COL	COL	53.38	46.62	36.893	COL	1	4	5
121	06-13-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Hiroki Kuroda	CIN	LAN	LAN	53.38	46.62	49.856	CIN	6	4	10
122	07-24-2011	Brandon Beachy	Dontrelle Willis	ATL	CIN	ATL	53.596	46.404	51.599	CIN	3	4	7
123	07-04-11	Johnny Cueto	Chris Carpenter	CIN	STL	STL	53.811	46.189	46.204	STL	0	1	1
124	06-15-2011	Travis Wood	Chad Billingsley	CIN	LAN	LAN	53.811	46.189	51.912	CIN	7	2	9
125	07-22-2011	Jair Jurrjens	Bronson Arroyo	ATL	CIN	ATL	53.811	46.189	48.779	ATL	6	4	10
126	04-25-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Chris Narveson	CIN	MIL	MIL	54.023	45.977	48.865	CIN	9	5	14
127	07-16-2011	Chris Carpenter	Bronson Arroyo	STL	CIN	STL	54.233	45.767	41.646	STL	4	1	5
128	09-17-2011	Yovanni Gallardo	Edinson Volquez	MIL	CIN	MIL	54.233	45.767	51.13	MIL	10	1	11
129	04-30-2011	Josh Johnson	Edinson Volquez	FLA	CIN	FLA	54.338	45.662	47.124	CIN	3	4	7
130	05-06-11	Edinson Volquez	Matt Garza	CIN	CHN	CHN	54.442	45.558	42.052	CIN	5	4	9
131	07-06-11	Bronson Arroyo	Jake Westbrook	CIN	STL	STL	54.853	45.147	40.071	CIN	9	8	17
132	06-14-2011	Johnny Cueto	Clayton Kershaw	CIN	LAN	LAN	54.853	45.147	48.09	CIN	3	2	5
133	08-24-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Chris Volstad	CIN	FLA	FLA	54.853	45.147	45.101	CIN	3	2	5
134	09-25-2011	Dontrelle Willis	James McDonald	CIN	PIT	PIT	54.853	45.147	47.34	CIN	5	4	9
135	05-31-2011	Zach Greinke	Chad Reineke	MIL	CIN	MIL	55.056	44.944	46.954	MIL	7	2	9
136	09-10-11	Bronson Arroyo	Alex White	CIN	COL	COL	55.257	44.743	40.759	COL	7	12	19
137	09-01-11	Vance Worley	Mike Leake	PHI	CIN	PHI	56.044	43.956	47.863	PHI	6	4	10
138	04-22-2011	Edinson Volquez	Kyle McClellan	CIN	STL	STL	56.236	43.764	47.537	STL	2	4	6
139	06-28-2011	Johnny Cueto	David Price	CIN	TB	TB	56.236	43.764	43.238	TB	3	4	7
140	08-18-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Jordan Zimmerman	CIN	WAS	WAS	56.236	43.764	37.689	WAS	1	3	4
141	09-05-11	Dontrelle Willis	Matt Garza	CIN	CHN	CHN	56.427	43.573	40.249	CHN	3	4	7
142	07-08-11	Mike Leake	Zach Greinke	CIN	MIL	MIL	56.427	43.573	43.585	MIL	7	8	15
143	07-10-11	Dontrelle Willis	Randy Wolf	CIN	MIL	MIL	56.71	43.29	38.497	MIL	3	4	7
144	09-09-11	Homer Bailey	Jhoulys Chacin	CIN	COL	COL	56.989	43.011	37.3	CIN	4	1	5
145	05-29-2011	Johnny Cueto	Jair Jurrjens	CIN	ATL	ATL	57.356	42.644	46.26	ATL	1	2	3
146	09-02-11	Johnny Cueto	Chris Carpenter	CIN	STL	STL	57.537	42.463	35.319	CIN	11	8	19
147	08-29-2011	Cole Hamels	Homer Bailey	PHI	CIN	PHI	58.246	41.754	44.732	PHI	3	2	5
148	07-05-11	Edinson Volquez	Jaime Garcia	CIN	STL	STL	58.763	41.237	39.533	STL	1	8	9
149	05-28-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Derek Lowe	CIN	ATL	ATL	58.763	41.237	45.945	ATL	6	7	13
150	04-27-2011	Sam LeCure	Yovanni Gallardo	CIN	MIL	MIL	59.1	40.9	42.978	CIN	7	6	13
151	09-03-11	Homer Bailey	Jaime Garcia	CIN	STL	STL	59.35	40.65	33.201	STL	4	6	10
152	04-23-2011	Travis Wood	Chris Carpenter	CIN	STL	STL	59.432	40.568	46.064	CIN	5	3	8
153	05-26-2011	Homer Bailey	Cliff Lee	CIN	PHI	PHI	59.759	40.241	39.599	PHI	4	10	14
154	06-11-11	Mike Leake	Tim Lincecum	CIN	SF	SF	59.839	40.161	42.603	CIN	10	2	12
155	05-27-2011	Mike Leake	Tommy Hanson	CIN	ATL	ATL	60.707	39.293	43.144	CIN	5	1	6
156	09-04-11	Bronson Arroyo	Edwin Jackson	CIN	STL	STL	60.861	39.139	35.499	CIN	3	2	5
157	05-23-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Cole Hamels	CIN	PHI	PHI	61.165	38.835	36.009	PHI	3	10	13
158	08-31-2011	Cliff Lee	Dontrelle Willis	PHI	CIN	PHI	61.832	38.168	45.215	PHI	3	0	3
159	09-18-2011	Zach Greinke	Dontrelle Willis	MIL	CIN	MIL	61.832	38.168	49.37	MIL	8	1	9
160	06-29-2011	Edinson Volquez	James Shields	CIN	TB	TB	61.905	38.095	45.445	CIN	4	3	7
161	08-30-2011	Roy Halladay	Bronson Arroyo	PHI	CIN	PHI	64.093	35.907	41.095	PHI	9	0	9
162	05-25-2011	Travis Wood	Roy Halladay	CIN	PHI	PHI	64.851	35.149	41.751	PHI	4	5	9