Thoughts on Johnny Cueto in 2011?

by Dewey Finn on Jan 3, 2011 5:13 PM EST

I posted this on rotohardball awhile ago, but would love to get this community's thoughts as well...

Despite only being 24 years old, it seems like Johnny Cueto has been around forever. I can still remember his debut in 2008 when he put up 7 IP of one hit ball (1 ER) with 10 Ks and no BBs. Having watched baseball for over 20 years, Cueto's debut ranks right up there as one of the best I've ever seen. Unfortunately, that debut set the expectations and hype to unprecedented levels to which it was almost impossible for Cueto to fulfill.

Fast forward to 2010, it appears that Johnny Cueto has been an underachiever. However, if you look closely at the numbers, he's making improvements. For the third year in a row, Cueto has lowered his BB and HR rate, and increased his GB rate. Furthermore, he has also been increasing his strand rate of base runners. Some may argue that is fluky, but it's quite possible that Cueto is learning to pitch better under high stress situations, rather than unraveling. The slight concern is that his K rate is also dropping, but his stuff (93+ mph FB, mid 80s slider) is still as good as it was when he debuted with a 8.17 K/9 in 2008. Has he made the decision to pitch to contact in order to go deeper into games? It would partially explain his IP per start increase to a career high in 2010. With his excellent fastball/slider combination, I do expect the K rate to increase soon. He's had to do a lot of his 'learning' at the MLB level. I think its just a matter of time before he begins to utilize his arsenal to its potential.

In his 3rd year in the Majors, Johnny Cueto put up his best season in terms of Wins (12), IP (185.2), ERA (3.64), and WHIP (1.28). I guess you can call this a 'breakout' season. It wasn't sexy by any means, but it does show promise that the young kid is getting better and making improvements in his game. These are the qualities you want to see in a young arm. I still think he might be a year or two away from a 'wow' season, but he's definitely headed in the right direction. In my opinion, Johnny Cueto will no doubt out perform his ADP.

My projection for Johnny Cueto in 2011:

200 IP, 16 W, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 160 K

What are your thoughts on Johnny Cueto for 2011?

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Comments

Not sure if it'll be Cueto, Bailey or Volquez

but I have the feeling that one of those pitchers is going to have a monster season this year and become a bona fide ace.

Watch it, ass blood.

by -ManBearPig on Jan 3, 2011 5:29 PM EST reply actions

I'm really hoping Volquez can return to his 2008 level of performance

That was a treat to watch.

Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!

The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!

by Dewey Finn on Jan 3, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

I'm really hoping we trade Volquez for an OF sometime soon

by Highlifeman21 on Jan 3, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

That is a terrible idea

There’s no way you get any return for Volquez right now. You ride it out and hope he bounces back, which I think he will.

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Jan 4, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sure there's a "ride it out" and "the Wagon" joke in here somewhere.

If my chicken sandwich wasn’t so damn good, I’d probably find it.

Instead, ketchup.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jan 4, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

Holy crap

A chicken sandwich sounds really good right now. I’m gonna go hunt down some food.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 4, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

are you high?

"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"

by smitty3 on Jan 4, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

Just hungry.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 4, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

...or you could just go to the grocery store.

by the finest muffins on Jan 5, 2011 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

ketchup on a chicken sammy?

by ol Pete on Jan 4, 2011 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

fine, trade him by July 30, 2011

it’s a race between him and Arroyo to get off the roster faster

by Highlifeman21 on Jan 4, 2011 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

I'll say it again, for the 100th time

Bailey is going to kick ass this year.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jan 3, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

you keep believing that.

I’ll be the realistic one. He’s never going to stay healthy long enough to figure it out.

"Red Reporter - An elitist clique full of like-minded douchebags." - BK

by ZJiff30 on Jan 3, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

wow

Is he really that injury-prone?

I thought one of the reasons he was projected to be better than Phil Hughes is that Bailey was less injury-prone.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 3, 2011 6:52 PM EST up reply actions

He's not injury prone at all

Last year was his first significant injury, and while that definitely is cause for concern, there certainly isn’t reason to think he can’t stay healthy moving forward (apart from the usual pitcher concerns)

If anything, I worry about an injury to Leake or Cueto, the little guys.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jan 3, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

the little guy theory is waaay overblown in my opinion.

Cueto has good clean fluid mechanics, I’m not worried at all.

Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!

The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!

by Dewey Finn on Jan 3, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

plus he's listed at 210 lbs

that’s not too little, if you buy into the heavy-set-body-type-holding-up-better-to-pitching theory as well.

by kcgard2 on Jan 4, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

Ray King's Fat Ass

Agrees.

What, me? Being negative? No. Never.

by Paul Householder on Jan 5, 2011 3:33 AM EST up reply actions

One of those rare occasions when the star align and NYCREDSFAN and Senor Mads agree

"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren

by Madville on Jan 3, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

someone call Channel 5

let’s get a camera down here immediately!!!

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jan 3, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

Fuck Channel 5.

I’m the guy that sends the cameras at 9. And I’m at work right now. How about it, a hug on camera for posterity?

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Jan 3, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions

Only if they hip-hug

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Jan 4, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Mads gives good hugs

by Highlifeman21 on Jan 4, 2011 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

And the first one is always free.

"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren

by Madville on Jan 4, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions

I've thought this too, duh.

But the Reds are gonna have 5 aces by the time the year is done! Volquez, Chappy, Cueto, Homie, and Wood! OK, maybe Wood is just a #2. Cliff who?! He he he.

by jsl413 on Jan 4, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

My money is on Cueto

who I think will no doubt have the best career of the three.

by kcgard2 on Jan 3, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

Finding in-house talent is so last century.

The trend these days is to bring in expensive free agents. Player development is for girls.

"I bet that sex Bengals fan is really pissed now." -DT3428

by sexsalad on Jan 3, 2011 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

ERA: 3.50

Wins: 15
K: 145
Careers ended with flying cleats: Priceless

"I bet that sex Bengals fan is really pissed now." -DT3428

by sexsalad on Jan 3, 2011 7:20 PM EST reply actions

Cueto should just about be coming into his own this season

I expect that he and Bailey will be very good in 2011. Volquez…well we’ll see.

"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren

by Madville on Jan 3, 2011 8:29 PM EST reply actions

Wait til February or March when the Yanks are really desperate...

then trade him for Gardner. Pair the savings with the Rhodes money and buy something shiny at the deadline.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 4, 2011 1:22 PM EST reply actions

Not a bad thought, actually. Except it'll never happen, as I doubt either side does that deal.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jan 4, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

trade Volquez for Gardner

hang onto Cueto

by Highlifeman21 on Jan 4, 2011 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

Volquez has so much more upside than Cueto...

and his value is at a low point. Dude could easily win the CY next year and no one would be surprised.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 4, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe...

Cueto’s floor is certainly lots higher though.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 4, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

As of today, Cueto looks like our best pitcher IMO

I’m not a fan of trading away your best pitchers. if Volquez or Bailey break out, I’d be more open to trading him, but both those scenarios are not certainties by any means

by pack_fan on Jan 5, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

This doesn't make sense

if no one would be surprised if he won the Cy Young, wouldn’t that mean his value is high?

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jan 4, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions

Well...

no one would be surprised if he pitched 15 innings either.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 4, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

this is not the jinx you are looking for.

"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."

by Cy Schourek on Jan 4, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I was actually a legit Reds' fan...

until they stopped being irrelevant. They’re my #2 team.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 4, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

2 points of rebuttal

A- I think that’s pretty well the definition of a fairweather/bandwagon fan
B- That irrelevant team is the defending NL Champs.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 4, 2011 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

... NL Central rather.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 4, 2011 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

Isn't it the antithesis of a fairweather/bandwagon fan?

Or, if you prefer, the definition of a fairweather/bandwagon hater?

by the finest muffins on Jan 5, 2011 12:40 AM EST up reply actions

Fairweather fans leave their team and jump on the bandwagon of another.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 5, 2011 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Except for Pirates fans.

The streak of non-playoff, losing season futility has been sufficiently long that they get exceptions to this rule.

What, me? Being negative? No. Never.

by Paul Householder on Jan 5, 2011 3:37 AM EST up reply actions

you're misreading

the Reds were his pet team until the Reds started embarrassing his team.

I don’t think you can have a pet team in the same division, though. I mean, I root for the Royals kinda, but that was only a problem on the Day of the Hochevar.

"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."

by Cy Schourek on Jan 5, 2011 7:26 AM EST up reply actions

"Embarrassing his team"

Cincinnati vs. St. Louis 2010

6-12, 63 runs scored, 94 runs allowed

The Reds went 43-17 against everyone else in the division; the Cardinals were 11-19 against Houston and the Cubs.

It was a weird year.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 5, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

I think the Cards may have lost their season series against the Brewers as well. The Brewers put an ass whoopin on the Pirates. Without them, their record would have been fugly. Seemed like the Pirates did well against the Cubs though – heh.

by ol Pete on Jan 5, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

yeah...

7-8 vs. Brewers, 1-2 vs. Royals, 500 or better vs CIN, ATL, SD, COL, PHI, SFG. Totally maddening season.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 5, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

It was an odd year

I went to a game at Busch where the Cardinals beat us and the general sentiment was “If only we could beat anyone else…”

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 5, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

STL: 86-76

CIN: 91-71

Star CFs of the future alienated:
STL: 1
CIN: 0

Improbable sightings at Glenn Beck rallies in the midst of losing swing:
STL: 2
CIN: 0

So, uh, we all have our metrics.

"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."

by Cy Schourek on Jan 5, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs

I think the Glenn Beck rally...

was when things really started to fall apart.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 5, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds like the devil crawfish'd and drilled that 'ol LaRussa in the ass

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Jan 5, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

Guilty.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Jan 5, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

the Brewers and Astros are both minor pet teams of mine

I LOVE it when they beat either the Cards or the Cubs. The White Sox-Astros WS was the 2nd best of my life, even though the country at large probably rates it around the worst of the last 30 years or something.

by kcgard2 on Jan 5, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

i kinda get it

i kind of liked the Cubs until 2004, when they actually expected to win.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Jan 5, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

but i mean the reds were pretty irrelevant from 2001 until 2010

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Jan 5, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions

So once the Reds became relevant, you didn't like them anymore?

by kcgard2 on Jan 5, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

Relevance is over rated

Nah, it's Old Hoss - BK

by Madville on Jan 6, 2011 2:44 AM EST up reply actions

X

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 6, 2011 7:31 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

dammit,

I appreciate your humor, Chuck.

"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."

by Cy Schourek on Jan 6, 2011 7:43 AM EST up reply actions

This whooshed right over my head, what did I miss?

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Jan 6, 2011 8:21 AM EST up reply actions

the relevance of it, apparently.

"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."

by Cy Schourek on Jan 6, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions

Yup

I thought to myself, “who is the least relevant person in America right now?” and the answer hit me like a ball peen hammer: Bob Vila.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 6, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Brilliant!

Nah, it's Old Hoss - BK

by Madville on Jan 6, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

The K rate drop is a little concerning

But he’s made up for it by learning to use his improved defense. He’s become a better groundball pitcher, and he really cut down on the gopher balls last year. I’d like to see him continue to improve his pitch economy so he can top 200 innings this year.

by ken on Jan 4, 2011 4:58 PM EST reply actions