The Off-Season Pitching Market: How does the Arroyo deal compare?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2011 2:30 PM EST
in Hot Stove
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PrintOn December 3rd, the Reds announced that they had signed Bronson Arroyo to a 3 year, $35 mil extension. At the time of the signing, I was not impressed and my view of it has not changed much. Since then, we have learned that much of Arroyo's money is deferred, which softens the rough edges a bit, but we've also learned much more about the pitching market. Wandy Rodriguez agreed to a 3 year, $34 mil extension with the Astros yesterday, which is pretty much identical to the deal Arroyo signed (sans the deferments, and the fact that Wandy was in his last year of arb). So it made me wonder just how the Arroyo deal stacks up to other deals that have been signed this off-season.
Below is a list of free agent pitchers (culled from MLBTR's FA tracker) who signed for $5 mil or more this off-season (plus Wandy and minus Cliff Lee, because that's not fair) with their last three seasons of IP, FIP, and WAR included:
| contract | IP (last 3 years) | FIPs | WAR | |
| Bronson Arroyo | 3y/35mil | 200/220.1/215.2 | 4.50/4.78/4.61 | 5.7 |
| Kevin Correia | 2y/8mil | 110/198/145 | 5.10/3.81/4.71 | 3.2 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | 2y/22.5mil | 130/185/121.2 | 4.06/3.91/4.30 | 7.8 |
| Jon Garland | 1y/5mil | 196.2/204/200 | 4.76/4.48/4.41 | 5 |
| Ted Lilly | 3y/33mil | 204.2/177/193.2 | 4.41/3.65/4.27 | 8.9 |
| Carl Pavano | 2y/16.5mil | 34.1/199.1/221 | 5.37/4.00/4.02 | 7 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 3y/34mil | 137.1/205.2/195 | 3.62/3.54/3.50 | 10.2 |
| Jake Westbrook | 2y/17.5mil | 34.2/xxx/202.2 | 3.91/xxx/4.09 | 2.7 |
It's also important to note that Garland, De La Rosa, Lilly, and Westbrook all signed before Arroyo's extension, so a fairly clear picture of the market had been set. As you can see, Arroyo's deal is nearly identical to both Lilly's and Wandy's, though they have been clearly superior pitchers the past few years. There are no perfect comparisons for Arroyo performance-wise, but his closest analogs are Garland and Pavano who are being paid significantly less (that Garland deal looks like an absolute steal for the Trolley Dodgers).
So it looks like the Arroyo deal is a significant overpay when compared to the rest of the market. Of course, this assessment ignores the special circumstances of the deal, like the deferments and especially the restructuring of the option. But the Reds had the choice to decline the option and let Arroyo go as a free agent, which is looking more and more like the best choice in hindsight. Only the Lilly deal had been completed when the Reds made the decision on the option, so there were a number of other pitchers out there at the time. It seems Walt overestimated the market when he agreed to pay the $11.5 mil. The best road was probably to decline the option and attempt to re-sign Arroyo as a free agent. The Reds probably could have gotten him for Pavano/Westbrook money instead of Lilly/Wandy money.
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Thankfully we have FIP and WAR. Actual results suck.
19 times last year in 33 starts he gave up 2 runs or less, 10 times 1 run or less.
17 times in 09 he did it in 33 starts.
18 times in 34 starts he did it in 08.
Seems like a solid pattern.
Ted Lilly btw gave up 2 ER or less in 15 of 30 starts last year, and Wandy did it in 18 of 32.
However, I am trying to make a statement about results, and not FIP or WAR, so my analysis will be found to be critically flawed.
There is certainly something to be said for guys like Arroyo who seem to consistently outperform their FIPs
I’m with you in believing that WAR is not yet all the way there in evaluating pitchers.
But with that said, I think my overall point still stands. He’s the highest paid pitcher on this list and it’s tough to justify that. I think the Reds would have been better served waiting out the market on this one.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, and the persecuted look is totally out this year
The cute person look is classic though.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
She makes my brain hurt
I almost can’t stand to look at her, because when I do, I think I experience the same range of emotions that lead much more stable men to become stalkers.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jan 26, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
You know who should look at her?
Nawt you, nawt you, and nawt you!
by Brendanukkah on Jan 26, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Totally agree
I wish the contrarians were more like sidnancy, who always picks on one post and doesn’t pretend that the entire board goes along with one way of thinking.
Contrarian? Look, I'll cite to WAR and FIP and all that kind of stuff,
but significantly overpaid? W/ no statement to back that up other than WAR and FIP? I’m entirely against taking advanced stats too far, and that is kind of what this post did. That’s it.
I agree in and of themselves they are fairly important indicators, and that they show in those other 14 starts Bronson isn’t exactly killing it, or even being average. I’m just saying the post itself was completely based on FIP and WAR, when by now we should all know they aren’t the be all say all that they can be made out to be.
You're missing my point
I have no problem at all with your arguments about Arroyo. I made similar ones myself when the extension was announced and have railed about WAR plenty of times, especially when it comes to pitchers. I’m just tired of arguments being framed as reaction to groupthink. I think we’re pretty open-minded here, and nobody is going to find your reasoning “critically flawed” just because it doesn’t rely on FIP/WAR/etc.
by ken on Jan 26, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Plus WAR isn't the best way to examine pitchers
Bronson Arroyo, and his 220 innings and sub 4 ERA had a worse WAR than Aaron Harang, his 160 innings and 4+ ERA in 2009.
I think WAR is an excellent way to examine position players, but I have problems with it for pitchers.
I also think WAR doesn’t really examine relief pitchers well, because they pitch in high leverage situations, and getting one out might be very important.
"I can’t imagine playing anywhere else. I enjoy myself. I can’t imagine being with a better team."
-Joey Votto
by justin007000 on Jan 26, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Leverage is included in WAR calculations
but I can still understand if someone disagrees with the methodology for reliever WAR.
i think WAR is more important for position players rather than pitchers
The great thing about WAR for position players is it provides a measuring stick for combine offensive and defensive ability. Pitchers are just measured on their ability to well pitch, their defense will show up in their pitching stats and offense from a pitcher is gravy.
"I can’t imagine playing anywhere else. I enjoy myself. I can’t imagine being with a better team."
-Joey Votto
by justin007000 on Jan 27, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Yes it does
While the quality of their work is very high, the quantity is low, which limits their total value. It’s nearly impossible to rack up huge win values while facing less than 300 batters per season. Yes, each of those batters faced are more critical to a win than a regular batter faced, but this is accounted for in WAR.
The average Leverage Index of a closer is about 1.8, meaning that each plate appearance is about 80 percent more important than an average PA. We give the closer credit for half of that, based on the principle of chaining.
As I say, I understand if people don’t really buy into reliever WAR being an accurate representation (I am not sure myself), but I don’t think it’s very far off in principle.
If you mean the library, they just started that
but yeah, I agree. If you go to a library, you are looking for complete answers
should I recognize her?
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
yeah, i got nothing here either
We're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad. Otherwise, you wouldn't have come.
Wait, wasn't she married to John Adams or something?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Wrong Adams Family
I thought she was great in Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day. I suppose she’s best known for Junebug.
I feel like she looks like...a lot of other actresses.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
That second picture is the best advertisement for double sided tape i've ever seen.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
or the worst!
amirightfellas?
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
by UncleWeez on Jan 27, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, you could also think of it as "if it weren't double sided tape, she would just wear something with more coverage."
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
Why would I want to think of it like that?
That just makes it LESS likely I’ll get to see her boobs!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 27, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
I meant if it weren't for double sided tape.
It is thanks to the glory of double sided tape that you get to see this much!
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
yeah. that.
I always think Pam from the Office.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
I woulda gone with Enchanted as her best known, but whatev.
"Red Reporter - An elitist clique full of like-minded douchebags." - BK
If TV counts, it has to be her short time on The Office.
"I bet that sex Bengals fan is really pissed now." -DT3428
Umm... if movies that people actually watched count, it's Talladega Nights
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
Good movie
Also, John Krasinski dated Amy Adams on “The Office,” then married Emily Blunt. Not too shabby, Jim.
by Brendanukkah on Jan 27, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Emily Blunt is the blandest of bland skinny girls
as WWTD (which I know you read) says: it’s like she’s the blank model with which to design people, but she wasn’t actually designed.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
I thought they said that about January Jones
by Brendanukkah on Jan 27, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
Emily Blunt's kinda the same mold.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
I really disagree.
I don’t get her confused with all the other skinny pale actresses in Hollywood (who I generally confuse with each other), so at the very least she looks different. Where on the other hand, I see January Jones, and it’s like looking at a blank to me.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
I thought
all white people looked alike!
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
This is false
January Jones is a beautiful woman. Nothing bland about her.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Her acting skills killed it for me
The episode of SNL she was on was one of the worst hosting jobs of all time.
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
She wouldn't be the first person to be both beautiful and forgettable looking.
You know, to me. I never said that anyone was objectively bland – just that I don’t find them notable beyond “hot”.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
Well, there is something to the results
but there is probably more to the performance. Because you don’t want to pay for his past, you want to pay for what you think he’ll do going forward. Even if you grant Bronson credit for the unexpectedly good results (considering the actual performance), the deal still looks like an overpay. And a basically untradeable one.
He's not being paid for last year
FIP is a more reliable indicator, generally speaking, than “actual” raw performance.
Especially when “actual results” is some arbitrary line-drawing in the game logs. (Why 2 runs or fewer? Why not 3 – isn’t that a more realistic definition of a “solid” outing? Bronson allowed <4 runs 22/33 starts last year; Lilly was 22/30; Wandy was 22/32.
In other words, intentionally or not, you sliced that data in a way that made Bronson look particularly good compared to the other guys. Slicing it different ways gives you a different outcome. (Which is why full-season numbers like FIP exist.)
Yes, Arroyo has been a solid pitcher. Good chance he’ll continue to be. The question is whether he WILL BE more valuable than Lilly or Wandy over the life of the contract, and/or whether the Reds could’ve put that money to better use (in the form of a 3rd veteran utilityman, for instance).
by Chris Garber on Jan 26, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
It's an expensive gesture of goodwill
That will hopefully not screw us later.
I’m still ok with it.
For now.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jan 26, 2011 3:06 PM EST reply actions
Goodwill gestures don't end well for the team
I don’t recall a time when fans were happy about a goodwill contract because the player did better than even an inflated contract called for.
Let’s hope, I guess.
I had to sign in just to say
Arroyo’s IP and durability have been a lot better than most of those guys (IPs higher than anyone). I think Walt is paying the premium for durability and some reliability to hedge against all the young guys.
I get that
but his IP over the last 3 years isn’t significantly more than Garland, who is getting paid 7 times less than Arroyo.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Garland needs to fire his agent
He’s got durability and a ring, but can’t seem to get more than one year.
That was my first thought when I saw the table.
Dude’s proven himself to be a solid innings eater. Yeah his FIP’s not in the elite class, but certainly good enough for some long term security
That's somewhat deceptive
Garland has an option that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 190 IP, something he’s done for 9-straight years.
Also, he can make another $3M this year based on innings pitched. Arroyo is still relatively overpaid, but 7x is disingenuous, and that’s not even taking into consideration the fact that the estimated total value of Arroyo’s deal is more like $29M because of deferments.
The real question, and something I don’t think we’ll ever get a straight answer on, is how the deferred money affects the long-term budget. In essence, it theoretically eliminates the ability to sign a Miguel Cairo type for 8 years after 2013, while making it a 3yr/$19.5M deal. Total value, they paid him too much, but that only matters if it prevents them from other moves. I’m not sure it does.
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
Really got worried for a second.
I had no idea why you would want to sign Miguel Cairo for 8 years. Then I realized you meant an interchangeable Miguel Cairo type for each of the next 8 years.
Crisis averted.
how long is Jeter's new contract for?
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
3 yrs with a 4th year PLAYER option
so, so dumb.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
agreed
Ugh. And now Cashman’s talking about making him a CFer.
They saw how awful it was watching the Ghost of Bernie Williams playing CF. And they want to move Jeter there? When he’s pushing 40?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
He can't be the Captain in LF?
Good question.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
yup
And fans have been saying that for year. What to do with Jeter, when he doesn’t have the bat for corner OF, 1B or DH?
OTOH, Cashman was apparently fine with Brett Gardner in LF, and Gardy has about as much power as Norris Hopper.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
That's sensible.
He’s got intangibles that many of those other guys may not have. Fans love him. Seems to be liked and respected in the clubhouse.
If he puts up approximately the same numbers for the next three years, especially if the young guys around him get better, he’ll be worth it. I can’t see that contract being an albatross unless he completely loses it.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jan 26, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Fair points
Of course I was being glib. But my point isn’t that the deal is prohibitive, but rather over-market. Knowing what we know now about the market, the smart move was probably to decline the option and attempt to re-sign him.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
I agree in theory
but I wonder if a guy like Arroyo would’ve been willing to do that. He seems like the kind of guy who might’ve just said a big FU to Walt and not even entertained offers.
Also, I think the timing was key. We know BronBron isn’t getting paid hardly anything this year, and this was also the first deal Walt did. Conversely, had he declined the option and then tried to do the FA re-sign, the money issue could’ve been up in the air all winter and it might’ve prohibited some of these other deals we’ve seen. That might not be the case, but it’s a possibility. Also, you can bet your sweet ass that Bronson wouldn’t have accepted a penny of deferred money had they gone the FA re-sign route.
Basically, I’m saying I think the cost certainty for this offseason and goodwill factors are what led to this more than anything, and you lose both of those by declining the option.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Pass.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Jan 26, 2011 3:26 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Who cares about the money, Jocketty has a secret stash of cash in his office
The real news is Rocco Baldelli retiring, its crazy, oh well.
"We start wit straight--shots then get the bottle poppin!"
That sucks.
I had high hopes for him when he first came up. Just very a unfortunate situation.
Watch it, ass blood.
Unrelated, but did anyone see Fay's blog post about BP being on twitter?
That’s kinda ridiculous, not to mention pointless.
It’s to the point where I think Fay wants a better relationship with him, but he’s just so socially awkward that he doesn’t know how to do it. It’s like the boy in kindergarten who has a crush on a girl, so he pulls her hair every time he sees her, then is flabbergasted when she doesn’t like him. (Bad Analogy Week!)
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I unfollowed BP today
Couldn’t take him anymore. Too much of everything.
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
I completely agree. He's obnoxious.
But so is Fya, in his own special wya.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
The goddamned oil spill
Or even if I just like such as judged a fish contest that would get me outta the house and in some air.
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Jan 26, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
not cool on the pic, man
makes me sad all over again.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Yeah man, you're totally harshing our buzz of forgetting it happened and going back to life as usual.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
yeah, cause looking at that picture really helps me right the wrong
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Quoth the raven:
“glub glub burbble”.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I would have much rather passed on Arroyo and Harang.
And then I wish Jocketty had tried to sign Garland, Jeff Francis (worth a flier in my book), or Harang (the Padres came out like bandits). Not only would the Reds have gotten a pitcher similar in quality, they would have also saved considerable dough.
eh, I think there's something to be said for familiarity and dependability
also, I had no clue Ted Lilly was all that respectable. Wow.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
You GUYS!
John Fya mentioned Bubbafan’s photos!
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/01/23/votto-dons-black-tie-collects-mvp/
!!!
You guys probably already knew though.
Yes we knew.
Also, not Fay.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Fays Blog
but it wasn’t fay.
"I can’t imagine playing anywhere else. I enjoy myself. I can’t imagine being with a better team."
-Joey Votto
by justin007000 on Jan 26, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
By the by, the Cueto option is awesome.
Only $10M for that 5th year? Or whatever it is? That’s no raise over the 4th year. If he’s a 3.0 WAR pitcher all 5 years, that contract is the snacks.
So, I just took my first 2 little quizzes for a financial planning class on blackboard.
The answers were all A. That’s ten easy questions that all end up with A being the right answer. Oh, and if you somehow manage to miss one of the questions, you get THREE tries at the quiz. Good lord. Is this college, or daycare?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Something tells me you were biased before the deal...
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
I liked when we got Arroyo in 2006
I just didn’t like when we held onto him rather than selling high when we had a lot of chances
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 26, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
Eh
If your only goal is to sell high on players, you’ll never be successful for long. I wouldn’t have given Arroyo 2 more years, but I don’t think it’s a terrible deal either. And I have a hard time calling Arroyo shit. He’s a nice number 3 pitcher and I think if the Reds had a real ace, you wouldn’t be all that concerned with having him on the staff.
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
Well put
"I can’t imagine playing anywhere else. I enjoy myself. I can’t imagine being with a better team."
-Joey Votto
by justin007000 on Jan 26, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
my issue with this contract on this team is that we have other needs and we actually have other pitchers who are better than Arroyo
we basically don’t need Arroyo is why I don’t like the contract
that and I don’t like Arroyo
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 26, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe we should try him in the bullpen.
I’m sure he’d have value there too!
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
We need him.
He introduced this entire team to Ed Hardy.
"I bet that sex Bengals fan is really pissed now." -DT3428
Not to mention if they weren't in the financial position of deferring his money
in order to help make room for Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria.
Arroyo may well have been the best way to spend the deferral-reduced salary he gets in 2011, but the price was two more years and a long outlay. I have the feeling that’s going to get annoying, but a little innings insurance on the young arms comes at a price. It’s a steep one, but at least it’s on the installment plan.
Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 27, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
I saw BP, Meso, and Stubbs tonight at the Reds HOF
Stubbs is dreamier in person. I bet even HLM would be a fan….
I shook BP’s hand as we (me and Dan from OMGReds) were standing around chatting and BP walked up to us. I’m not quite sure what we talked about. He’s almost as hard to understand in person as he is on twitter.
Mesoraco was quiet. People left him alone, which made him look kind of like a serial killer.
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
Yeah
They did the Hot Stove League radio show from the HOF and then they opened the new 2010 NLC Champs exhibit for members. Dan and I were off to the side and BP wondered in the room that we were in. Dan asked him about twitter and he said something back and then politely introduced himself to us.
To his credit, he is not shy around fans. If that did anything for me, I’d probably love the guy.
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
that love would never last
BP would never play 3rd fiddle to Mo and OMG.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
by Ewok on Jan 27, 2011 8:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Stubbs is pretty tall, isn't he?
did you challenge him to a race?
I like watching him run. He’s gazelle like
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 26, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would have been such a freaking fanboy with Mesoraco.
Probably wouldn’t have been able to get any words out, though…
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Stubbs
He’s better-looking in uniform, IMO. I don’t like his hair. He looks like he’s going prematurely bald or something.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Oddly enough
when I saw him at Kenwood Mall with a lovely lady, he had his Reds hat on. My gf asked if he was trying to get noticed. I lol’ed
I think most ballplayers go bald early
having a hat on for so much of your life doesn’t do wonders for the hairline.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
I never wore a hat
Sometimes the treeline just stops before the peak.
by Brendanukkah on Jan 27, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I wanted him to be trade-able
I am pretty sure this deal makes that very difficult. I feel that should be a defining point of a contract. If the deal make they guy un-tradable, then it should be a no-go, and vice versa.
If we have a guy or two take another step it makes Bronson just icing, and man do I love my cake, but I’d never pay $35 million for icing, at least not this vanilla kind, maybe the cream cheese kind.
man, this is a lot like Talk Like a Pirate Day
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
this post isnt bad
but i think you could have taken your analysis a little further. It would have been a much better post if you had included an educated guess on what the true market value for arroyo was. Instead of merely concluding “overpaid” you could say by how much.
WAR will starting pitchers is also a little suspect imho — tho it’s not the only stat you provided.
You tell'em cokane!
We sabremetricians have to stick together.
There was also no mention of how high Condom Arm’s delivery kick compares to these other pitchers.
THIS SIGNING WAS MAYBE A TAD HIGH BUT LOVE HIM OR HATE HIM, BRONSON WILL ANCHOR THE 2011 WS WINNERS STARTING ROTATION.
Fred Lewis and EdRent together are not worth One Laynce Nix
So, you would rather not have Bronson on your team
Than win the World Series with Bronson contributing?
You’re an idiot.
by Brendanukkah on Jan 27, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously I'd rather win the WS with Bronson
but man, I’d rather do it without him
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 27, 2011 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
b/c this team doesn't need Bronson Arroyo
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 28, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
but that doesn't matter if it doesn't stop us from winning a WS!!
I agree with you totally, we don’t need him. But the only reason that matters is because it might hurt our chances of a WS.
Man, HLM, do you know that even agreeing with you is hard work? Cmon now.
but we cannot ignore the fact that him on the team is a poor allocation of financial resources
and his $$$$ is better spent on a SS or LF
it’s just going to chap my ass when Bronson is the WS MVP this year
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 30, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Im'a try one last time
if we win the WS, one might argue that our money could not have been better spent. The point of optimum resource allocation is to maximize WS chances.
you're absolutely right
I doubt we have optimal resource allocation given the current snapshot of our 40 man roster, unfortunately
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 30, 2011 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
As a counterpoint...
You use fangraphs WAR in your analysis. By baseball-reference, however, Arroyo looks much better:
Pitcher 3-year WAR Arroyo 6.2 Correia -1.5 De La Rosa 4 Garland 4.6 Lilly 10.6 Pavano 5 (4.6 in '10) Westbrook 2.2
I also don’t like suggesting that every player is equally available to every team (Rodriguez, as mentioned, wasn’t available to anyone other than the Astros; other players may or may not have been available to the Reds). With as many questions as there are in the rotation (Will Volquez return to form? Will Bailey be the pitcher we think we can?) it’s nice to know you’ll have a guy out there you can count on. Finally, remember that Cueto and Volquez are the only others on the staff that have pitched even 140 innings in the majors in a season, and Volquez has done it just once.
This is not a knock on you in particular, but many who look at such things (especially fangraphs) think they have perfect knowledge – of not just the market, but the wants and needs of the team and the thoughts of both the team and the players. This is not so. “We” (the mom’s basement dwellers) think we have all the info we need, and that GMs who do things other than what the numbers say are idiots; we forget that there are actual humans with human emotions involved – do you know any of those other pitchers would consider playing for Cinci for the same money? I certainly don’t, and wouldn’t guess.
I said at the time that I’m more concerned with the years than the money – if the Reds need Arroyo to be a 2-3 WAR pitcher in ‘13, then they have bigger worries. But the value they placed on Arroyo doesn’t bother me at all.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
My argument is more
that the Reds likely could have signed Arroyo for less money if they had waited, rather than they could have signed any other pitcher for less money. But yeah, I agree with the rest of your argument. But all that shouldn’t stop us from talking about it all.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 27, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Sid has yet to steer me wrong. (But I don't always let him drive)
(Madville comment #19930)
Fred Lewis and EdRent together are not worth One Laynce Nix
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