Won't bow. Don't know how. Reds lose, 4-2.
Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game
Orlando Cabrera. The newly returned shortstop had two hits, including a double, and two RBI. Sure, some might say that Chris Carpenter, Matt Holliday, and maybe even Colby Rasmus had good games. But I take no notice. Enough other people will fawn over them. Here, they don't even get an honorable mention.
Key Plays
- After getting baserunners in three of the first four innings, but not scoring any runs, the Reds finally went ahead in the fifth. Drew Stubbs led off with a single off Chris Carpenter, and after Chris Heisey and Homer Bailey struck out, Brandon Phillips hit a double that sent Stubbs to third. Then Orlando Cabrera also doubled, and the Reds enjoyed a 2-0 lead.
- But not for long. Colby Rasmus double to lead off the bottom of the inning, and small balled his way home with productive outs - a fly out from Yadier Molina and a grounder from Pedro Feliz. Reds lead, 2-1.
- Homer Bailey worked into the sixth inning and got two quick outs. But then the pesky Jon Jay hit a double, extending the inning. Taking no chances with Albert Pujols, Bailey intentionally walked him, but Matt Holliday made him pay with a home run to dead center field. The Reds would never threaten after that, getting only one more hit the rest of the game. Cardinals win, 4-2.
Other Notes
- Chris Carpenter is the new Roy Oswalt. He has a ten game winning streak against the Reds dating back to 2006. Five of those wins came this year.
- The Cardinals finish the season series with a 12-6 advantage ("the Wainwright"). Five of those wins came from Chris Carpenter, and four came from Jaime Garcia. Brandon Phillips finished the season series with a .236 average against the Cards. Albert Pujols hit .317 against the Reds. Joey Votto hit .290 and Scott Rolen hit .262.
- This was the first time the Reds have lost one of Homer Bailey's starts since May 23 against Cleveland.
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from teh Fye
Bailey shook off catcher Ryan Hanigan before throwing the fastball that Matt Holliday hit out for a three-run homer.
Hmm I wonder if Ryan told him what was coming….
Nobody listens to Andrew
Homer kept shaking off the slider
According to Brantley. That would’ve been a good two strike pitch but Hoss insisted on the fastball. I bet Hanigan wanted to flash Homer the ol’ number one after all that.
by ken on Sep 5, 2010 11:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Of course 'Ol Hoss wanted to throw the Pussywetter
that’s his go to pitch….
unfortunately, at times it’s laser fucking straight….
by Highlifeman21 on Sep 7, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Hanigan looked pissed right after Holliday hit it
I didn’t understand the pitch selection or walking Pujols in that situation. Holliday almost took him yard earlier, just didn’t understand why you would put another runner on, even if it was Pujols who had been struggling of late.
Consume excrement and expire......
I didn't watch any of this, just turned on GD on my phone in time to see Holliday's homer. Suck.
Still, I’m perfectly happy to take 1 of 3 this weekend. Don’t forget, the fact that the Reds had to face their three big pitchers mean the Cards have to run out their shit show the next 2 games.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Correction
Had to face their three big pitchers without super hot Jay Bruce.
by Brendanukkah on Sep 5, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
on the bright side,
We outscored them 10-8 in the series. Two close games could have gone either way.
Also, we still have a 7 game lead.
Also, this will make you smile.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Can we talk about the IBB?
I saw on the game thread there was a lot of opposition to it.
However, if there is any time (according to the book) for an IBB, wouldn’t it be 2-outs, man on 2nd with first base open, and the best hitter in the league who is not on your team up to bat?
Fangraphs has the IBB as increasing the Cards run expectancy by 0.11, though that does not take into account that it’s Pujols and Holliday in question.
Does anyone want to defend the “Never IBB under any circumstances” view?
What situation would be more advantageous to issue the IBB? (Maybe 2-outs, man on 2nd, first base open, #8 man up with the pitcher on deck. Any others?)
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
you make a reasonable argument
Considering the two run lead, that Pujols only represented the tying run, and it was only the 6th inning, I would have pitched to him. But honestly I don’t blame Dusty for ordering a walk, and I fully understand the reasoning behind his decision. Pujols is one mighty swing away from his slump ending.
Joey Votto is my MVP.
by justin007000 on Sep 5, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
pujols was the go ahead run
We're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad. Otherwise, you wouldn't have come.
It was only a one run read.
And it was two outs. If it was one out, walk him, to set up the double play at any base (except home, of course).
As it was, Pujols has been in a slump. I would have pitched around him- not given him anything to hit, see if he’d swing anyways. If we’d walked him, well, is that any worse than an IBB?
It's the same.
Pujols is the best hitter in baseball. He doesn’t swing at junk.
"Red Reporter - An elitist clique full of like-minded douchebags." - BK
I would definitely not have walked him
Holliday is too good a hitter for that to work out well.
by occams_tiger_teeth on Sep 5, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Pujols makes an out 70% of the time.
Plus, how’d that work out for the Reds in Cincy? Oh yeah. A big homer crushed them. Nice strategy, guys!
Phone's ringing, Dude.
my memory isn't soo good
Joey Votto is my MVP.
by justin007000 on Sep 5, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I will
Just for the heck of it.
Diamond Mind wondered about these and other questions, and crunched the numbers.
The intentional walk. This frequently used defensive strategy avoids dangerous hitters and can set up a double play, but it also awards a free base, and even the best hitters usually make an out. So is it smart in the long run? Diamond Mind found that it was not, though the difference was only about five runs per team per season.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
My opposition to the walk is this
What is more likely? Pujols hits a home run or Holliday hits an extra base hit? I honestly don’t think that there was much difference in whether or not one would get a hit than the other, which means that Jay was just as likely to score with either batter up. So then the question becomes, who is more likely to knock Pujols in? Pujols or Holliday. I’d say the chances were much higher that Holliday could hit at least a double than Pujols could hit a home run. I think people underestimate the quality of hitter that Matt Holliday is. Yes, he’s not Albert Pujols, but I think he’s as dangerous with 2 men on as Pujols is with one man on.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
by Slyde on Sep 6, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I agree with that
Holliday is not an easy out. I know he has had struggles on occasion with runners on, but the guy is very talented and not getting big bucks because he’s no good. It’s not like we were walking Pujols to get to Aaron Miles.
I think you're probably right, but just to represent the opposition
There’s some logic to the idea that by putting the force on at every base, you increase the number of batted balls that can be turned into outs.
So yeah, if either guy smokes it, run(s) will score. But Holliday’s average goes down, because you can take action to suppress his BABIP for that at-bat (he claims deductively, not empirically).
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
But Pujols isn't all that fast...
and does he really hit many infield grounders anyway?
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Holliday's infield grounder would turn into an out instead of an infield hit, not Pujol's
Or do you mean Holliday’s not that fast?
MH’s BABIP this year is .318, well below his career avg of about .347. Probably just unlucky; his GB/FB/LD splits aren’t that much different than last year. FB rate is up quite a bit over the last couple years.
But I’m guessing Dusty didn’t put that much thought in it.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
I meant that
a grounder hit by Pujols that has to get him at first vs. a grounder hit by Holliday that can go to any base is basically a wash.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
ah, I see
It does mean that (deductively again) the Cardinals were smart to get someone really good to bat behind Pujols. This discussion is much different if it’s Skip or Feliz up next.
Now, whether they were smart to pay for 7 seasons @ $17M remains to be seen.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
The Reds did the minimum in this series for the talk not to be all about
their choking (The Padres on the other hand…)
But as someone pointed out for every series where LaRussa juggles it so his three aces pitch, he has to come back with a Suppan or whoever for the next series
This is a huge week. We need the Braves to do their part and the Reds to play well in Denver.
by occams_tiger_teeth on Sep 6, 2010 12:01 AM EDT reply actions
Call me crazy
But I’m not even concerned about losing 2 to the Cards. In fact I think the loss to the Cubs was far worse than these.
I may be a trifle concerned about the Rockies in Denver
by Brendanukkah on Sep 6, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm worried too
the Rockies are on fire and have a legitimate opportunity to win their division. They won’t be easy to beat. I think we can beat them, though, it’s just a matter of our guys showing up to play. I was a bit concered about the confident talk after the Cards loss today. They need to focus on a game at a time.
Harang vs Ubaldo!
Well, the other three matchups look much more favorable.
You're never as bad as you look when you lose. You're never as good as you look when you win.
not too long ago
that would have been awesome. I’m going to be cautiously confident in Harang (probably until the 2nd inning). He looked pretty rusty against the Brewers and got some lucky outs (a couple brilliant double plays) but he wasn’t getting crushed. I hope he can toss a decent game and teh offense shows up. You’re ight, though, we have 3 chances after that.
I'm a trifle concerned with no lefty outfielders against Righty pitchers.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
I have to rec that recap
for the “Wainwright” alone. In other news, Votto’s interview is coming up soon on sportscenter.
Also
Cardinal fans are total douches. I’ve never been that disgusted with people at a game in my life. What a bunch of dicks.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Total classlessness.
I’ve never gotten anything but interest and respectful discussion or playful trash talk from Cardinal fans in the past. They were just rude and disrespectful this time. It really was not an enjoyable experience at all. Missourians should be better than that.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Pretty sure you can blame some of that on the Franchise.
"Red Reporter - An elitist clique full of like-minded douchebags." - BK
Classy means you don't turn rude when someone is rude to you
If they are going to claim classiness and professionalism, they ought not blame anything on the Franchise or anyone else.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
by bbjones on Sep 6, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I see
Josh Hamilton is out indefinitely with bruised ribs. (I knew the Rangers should have taken him out right away.)
Not good for the Rangers, but probably good for his MLB-leading batting average.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Also good for Voltron apologists.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Sep 6, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
We could still 'win' the trade!
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs.
This will be a great off-season discussion, for years to come.
Regardless of whether it was a good decision at the time, how has that trade worked out? Different answers at different time-points, of course. The most interesting one will be in about 3-4 years.
Option A: Volquez comes back from TJ on the usual schedule, and dominates for the next 3 years, starting games 1 and 4 of 2 world series (winning all 4 games, for 2 sweeps). Hamilton becomes Eric Davis: enormous talent, but so often injured that he never produces all he can.
Option B: Volquez never properly comes back from TJ, spends a disappointing year in the rotation, then 2 years as a middle reliever, before reinventing himself as a knuckleballer in Japan. Hamilton becomes Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, and Roy Hobbs all rolled together, and never gets hurt again.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
If Homer can come away from this game
actually having learned something about pitching in that sort of situation, that makes the loss a lot more bearable.
Oh, and don’t forget the Reds’ remaining schedule. After 4 games at Colorado (current winning percentage: .529), it’s:
3 vs. Pittsburgh (.331)
4 vs. Arizona (.409)
3 at Houston (.471)
3 at Milwaukee (.463)
3 at San Diego (.563)
3 vs Houston
3 vs Milwaukee
I don’t want to get overconfident, but the only ones that really scare me are the trips out to Colorado and San Diego.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
If the Reds can leave Denver still up by 7 games
I am a happy, happy, man. I think that’ll take at least 2-2.
That said, I’m wondering what Homer should’ve done. Throw a slider he clearly didn’t feel comfortable with? I’d have voted for throwing a splitter, but I don’t think that’s too smart with the full count.
Hopefully him and Ryan had a talk over some shitty beer and straightened it out. But I’m not sure what else to do besides that.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Sometimes, you just get beat
Homer threw what he thought was his best pitch in the situation; Hanigan thought something else would have been better.
Eh, it happens.
This Rockies series is the most important of the year. As you said, up by 7 after that, and it’s basically over. But a tailspin now (and the Cards winning, of course) could tighten this thing up in a hurry.
It's summertime - go Reds!
the real problem for Homer is the pitch didn't go anywhere near where the catcher was set up
he missed his spot by at least 6 inches, and unfortunately it was six inches closer to the hitter, right on the meat of the bat.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
The way I look at it
I want them to take 3 out of 7 against the Rockies and Padres and go 10-9 against the other teams. That gives them a 92-70 record on the season, and the Cardinals would have to go 21-7 from here on out to tie that.
The Cardinals’ remaining schedule:
3 at Milwaukee (.463)
4 at Atlanta (.577)
3 vs Chicago (.431)
4 vs San Diego (.563)
1 at Florida (.511)
3 at Pittsburgh (.331)
3 at Chicago
3 vs Pittsburgh
4 vs Colorado (.529)
Sure, they have 12 games vs. Pittsburgh and Chicago and 3 vs. Milwaukee, but they also have 13 against teams over .500, with a 4-game series against each of Atlanta, San Diego, and Colorado.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
and only Yadier to play
I’m really interested to see how that is going to work out.
At this point, I’m mostly concerned about the Reds running into Philly or SFG in the playoffs. I’d prefer anyone else. Well, besides maybe the Cards
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
I'm really curious to see how that San Diego series goes...
since it does seem like they’re not playing incredibly well recently.
I think the Reds would match up best against the Braves at this point, and that could happen in the first round if they slip enough to let the Phillies overtake them—but stay in front of the Giants.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Phillies probably scare me the most
but I could see them going out to die some place out West. I could also see Travis Wood inprobably outdueling just about anyone at this point, so who knows.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
And they have NO off days.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Sep 6, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, San Diego seems to be going the way of the Channel 4 news team
Stumbling the streets of the city with warm milk caked in their beards.
by Brendanukkah on Sep 6, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Whoa.
I didn’t realize it was as bad as it is. They’ve lost ten in a row! Four of those to Arizona, three to Philadelphia, and three to Colorado.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
yeah, they were talking about that on ESPN
Their take: Pads became overconfident, and let the Giants back in.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
yeah it looks like some terrible regression is going on
but I haven’t read about it in-depth. I have watced some highlightds and it looks like the team BA is very low (around .215) and the team ERA is a bi higher now at 5.00. Somewhat worse pitching with inept offense is making them lose. I hope they can turn it around by the time they face the Cardinals and then stink again when we have to play.
I’m not sure what role over-confidence had, but I hope it doesn’t affect us.
Jeez, King Felix
Is on fire…….Well anyways, any news on our outfield situation? Bruce healthy yet or are we giving him a few more days?
"I'll have what he's having."
"Nothing wakes you up on a cold January morning like hot horse-piss." - Kevin Mitchell is Batman
the only way that happens
is if marissa miller is in the stands and harang hits on her.
"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki

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