The number of newborns named "Joey" in the greater Cincinnati area must be astronomical after this summer. Reds win, 5-2.

i’m sure sandoval didn’t get to look like that on a bamboo diet

I’m not 100% cool with this team moving on without him. But I also don’t think it is a no-brainer to pick up the option.

I do think the Reds will pick up the option, and I’m fine with that. But it’s stupid to act like they shouldn’t consider alternatives. And you should avoid paying a guy for past performance. Just cuz a guy has been something doesn’t always mean he will be the same thing.

It’s ridiculous to pick up his option and then sign him to a long-term deal, b/c he’ll want North of $10MM per year, for at least 2 years, and I sure as shit wouldn’t pay him at least $20MM for 2 years, and I sure as shit wouldn’t pay him more than $27MM for 3 years.

If we do pick up his 2011 option, then we have to try and move him in 2011, IMO.

In which case 9 mil a year would most certainly be a discount.

Regardless, I think it’s pretty clear the team isn’t going to re-sign him long term at this point.

And it’s a judgement call of how much value you put in an innings-eater and if Arroyo will continue to eat innings like an Expedition guzzles gas. I don’t think Arroyo’s showed signs of slowing down yet…
2005: 205.1 IP
2006: 240.2 IP
2007: 210.2 IP
2008: 200.0 IP
2009: 220.1 IP
2010: 227.0 IP (Projected through end-of-season)

Use of FIP and xFIP are fine when you want to be predictive, but I see little to no value in using it to evaluate past performance. Bronson has significantly outperformed his xFIP in 4 of his 5 years as a Red, and given his general repertoire and pitching style, I really don’t think he can be properly evaluated using pitcher WAR. I like that as Bronson’s strikeouts have gone down, his groundballs have gone up. I like that Bronson has shown the ability to make adjustments to keep himself ahead of opposing hitters, throwing a lot more change-ups and cutters this year to make his fastball play up. I like that Bronson is a lock to give me 200 innings every year, no complaints, no missed starts, and twice as many gems as clunkers. And I love his fucking tiger eyes.

Did cutting Merker loose affect our ability to get free agents in the late 90’s?

You mention 8 pitchers.

Well, this year we have 8 starting pitchers, and one is on the DL probably for the season, and one of them has had his arm fall off, and one had to be converted to the pen because was getting shelled as a starter in the minors.

I suppose at some point you could have so many quality arms as starters that you’re forced to keep good talent in the minors. I’ve just never seen it.

Wood and Leake will be sophomores next year, and you can’t rely on them to be great starters.

Homer Bailey…want to rely on him as a starter? Really? Based on what, his last two starts?

Every year Chapman pitches in relief will be another year of longevity for him- I almost have a hernia every time I see him do that insane windup for the 103mph fastball. I can’t believe he can throw 200+ of those a season without damaging something. I’d much rather see him throw 70 innings as a closer and use that fastball 20% of the time than throw 200 innings as a starter and use that fastball 10% of the time. Maybe when he’s built his stamina up…

So who does that leave? Cueto, Volquez, and…LeCure? I’m not convinced. If we have too many pitchers, I’m sure some team will be happy to take Arroyo off our hands. Even if he’s just insurance, he’s a heck of a good insurance to have.

I really don’t think a 1 year nine million dollar contract is going to keep us from getting what we need to win a ‘ship. On the other hand, it’s easy to imagine a couple of injuries or sophomore slumps turning us from being a championship contender to 3 1/2 back and out of the playoffs.

Wood, Bailey, Maloney, or Lecure?

I look at our prospects and hope some other team is stupid enough to want them, b/c I sure as shit don’t want them on our MLB club, but that’s just b/c history’s on my side to show that prospects don’t pan the fuck out

I am so happy someone got that. Maybe in the top 5 SNL skits ever.

And it may be that it will be obvious by then who should be the starters. I could see a case for Wood. However, he’s not used to the big league schedule – the minors start later and end in Sept. – so he might be fatigued by then. Or the scouting reports might catch up to him.

OTOH, Volquez is likely to be inconsistent, coming back from injury and all. By October, he might have it ironed out…or he might pitch himself out of the rotation.

Still, teams seem to prefer power pitchers for post-season, probably because they tend to be more consistent.

I’d go Cueto, Wood, Bronson, and either Homer or Volquez, depending on who’s better in the final 6 weeks.