Bullish on Backstops
I was listening to Chad's interview of Mark Sheldon yesterday, and they brought up the excellence of our catchers as a key (one of many!) part of the Reds success this year. After Ramon Hernandez hit another homer last night, I thought I'd pull up the data to showcase them a bit.
First, some baseline info: prior to the season, based on CHONE and ZiPS, I came up with this projection for our catchers:
| Name | %PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Hernandez | 54% | 0.328 | 0.395 | 0.317 |
| Hanigan | 42% | 0.348 | 0.364 | 0.318 |
| Tatum | 4% | 0.280 | 0.348 | 0.274 |
And here's what they've actually done (prior to last night's game):
| Name | %PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Hernandez | 52% | 0.362 | 0.420 | 0.346 |
| Hanigan | 33% | 0.390 | 0.423 | 0.357 |
| Miller | 16% | 0.290 | 0.354 | 0.287 |
Clearly both of our frontline catchers have hit far better than projected so far this year. That's been hampered a bit by increased PT by the 3rd catcher in the depth chart, but even so, this has been awesome production from our backstops so far.
Here's how they rate against the other teams. I'm reporting wins above average here, adjusted for park, including both offense and fielding. Update: I'm not including a position adjustment, so the "average" catching team gets a negative number. This was done for simplicity, but might have caused more confusing than I expected.
So there's Brian McCann at the top (he also homered last night). But the Reds catchers have clearly been in the second-tier of MLB catchers, along with the likes of Joe Mauer's Twins and Geovanny Soto's Cubs. I was surprised to see the Padres' catchers there, but they've been excellent behind the plate and their park deflates their offense. Similarly, Miguel Olivo's performance in Colorado is inflated by park, and we're adjusting for that. I also had no idea that Carlos Ruiz is having the kind of season he is having, so that was another surprise.
How important is production from catcher to a team's success? The Yankees, Rays, and Rangers have had below-average catching, but all other teams at or near the tops of their divisions have had at least average catching thus far. So, maybe it's not essential, but it's pretty helpful. You can see a table with all of the datums behind that graph below the jump.
| Team | OBP | SLG | wOBA* | RAA | Fielding | WAA | Starter(s) |
| ATL | 0.384 | 0.46 | 0.361 | 14 | 4 | 1.8 | McCann |
| PHI | 0.368 | 0.44 | 0.338 | 4 | 5 | 0.9 | Ruiz |
| SDP | 0.347 | 0.395 | 0.327 | 0 | 8 | 0.8 | Hundley/Torrealba |
| MIN | 0.355 | 0.441 | 0.336 | 3 | 4 | 0.7 | Mauer |
| CHC | 0.36 | 0.448 | 0.344 | 6 | 1 | 0.7 | Soto |
| TOR | 0.322 | 0.492 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 0.7 | Buck/J-Molina |
| CIN | 0.363 | 0.415 | 0.331 | 1 | 5 | 0.6 | Hernandez/Hanigan |
| COL | 0.343 | 0.472 | 0.329 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 | Olivo |
| SFG | 0.345 | 0.414 | 0.323 | -2 | -3 | -0.5 | B-Molina/Posey |
| NYM | 0.295 | 0.403 | 0.299 | -11 | 5 | -0.6 | Barajas |
| STL | 0.316 | 0.321 | 0.285 | -17 | 10 | -0.7 | Y-Molina |
| BOS | 0.326 | 0.457 | 0.324 | -1 | -7 | -0.8 | V-Martinez |
| CHW | 0.302 | 0.407 | 0.293 | -13 | 4 | -0.9 | Pierzynski |
| OAK | 0.302 | 0.381 | 0.298 | -12 | 2 | -1.0 | Suzuki |
| BAL | 0.322 | 0.34 | 0.296 | -12 | 1 | -1.1 | Wieters |
| LAD | 0.333 | 0.318 | 0.297 | -13 | 1 | -1.2 | Martin |
| CLE | 0.316 | 0.338 | 0.301 | -10 | -2 | -1.2 | Santana/Marson |
| FLA | 0.311 | 0.347 | 0.292 | -14 | 1 | -1.3 | Paulino |
| NYY | 0.343 | 0.392 | 0.320 | -3 | -10 | -1.3 | Cervelli/Posada* |
| LAA | 0.298 | 0.439 | 0.314 | -5 | -10 | -1.5 | Napoli*/Mathis |
| ARI | 0.351 | 0.422 | 0.318 | -4 | -12 | -1.6 | Snyder/Montero |
| MIL | 0.318 | 0.397 | 0.309 | -8 | -8 | -1.6 | Kottaras/Lucroy/Zaun |
| TBR | 0.326 | 0.295 | 0.285 | -17 | 0 | -1.7 | Jaso/Navarro |
| TEX | 0.292 | 0.342 | 0.273 | -20 | 0 | -2.1 | Treanor/B-Molina |
| WSN | 0.271 | 0.328 | 0.255 | -28 | 6 | -2.2 | I-Rodriguez |
| HOU | 0.261 | 0.31 | 0.249 | -28 | 5 | -2.3 | Quintero/Castro |
| KCR | 0.324 | 0.305 | 0.271 | -23 | -1 | -2.4 | Kendall |
| PIT | 0.299 | 0.348 | 0.283 | -17 | -6 | -2.4 | Doumit/Jaramillo/Snyder |
| SEA | 0.277 | 0.31 | 0.258 | -25 | -4 | -2.9 | Johnson |
| DET | 0.274 | 0.289 | 0.249 | -29 | -1 | -3.1 | Laird/Avila |
wOBA, RAA, and WAA are all park-adjusted. OBP & SLG are not. Fielding is the catcher fielding stat used in my power rankings, and is based on SB/CS/WP/PB/E rates. Catcher offense splits are from baseball-reference.
* Has played significant time at position other than catcher.
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I love your stuff Jinaz
They are so conclusive and the points are so well articulated it is difficult to comment, but your stuff does not go unread.
I am thrilled for your success, hell I'm amazed by it. Nobody who knows you saw this coming.
It's a rah rah piece, but I felt like rah-rahing.
Not much controversial in here. :)
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
This is awesome.
And to all the people here who wanted to trade for Gerald Laird last year…
Ha.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Aug 10, 2010 1:25 PM EDT reply actions
To be fair...
Laird’s been hurt most of the year. I just listed him because he started the season as the starter.
…not that being hurt would help the Reds much either. :)
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Wowza
I glanced over it during lunch, impressive information- I’ll have to take a closer look and read it more thoroughly after work!
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Replacement level seems fairly high
Or does it just look that way bc the season isn’t over?
That Mauer deal might not be so great after all.
by ken on Aug 10, 2010 3:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's vs Average, without position adjustments
If you want, add in 1.25 wins per 700 pa’s to every team. Doesn’t affect order of teams or gaps between them. -j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
by JinAZ on Aug 10, 2010 9:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions





























