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Reds Could Be Sitting Pretty With Draft Picks Nex Year

Bronson Arroyo is probably the Reds best available free agent this off-season, which is why he may not even make it to free agency.

MLB Trade Rumors has their projected Elias Rankings as of today up on their site. The good news? The Reds are sitting pretty. The Reds only have one key player who will be a free agent at the end of the year - Arthur Rhodes - but they have 6 others who have options that may not be exercised. Here is that list:

Name Option Buyout FA Type
Arthur Rhodes None None A
Bronson Arroyo $11M $2M A
Aaron Harang $12.75M $2M B
Ramon Hernandez $3.25M ? A
Orlando Cabrera $4M $1M B
Jonny Gomes $1.75M $200k B
Miguel Cairo None None Just Kidding

For those not familiar with the free agent type, it is what determines how many draft picks a team receives if their free agent player signs with another team. A Type-A free agent means the team that lost the player will get 2 draft picks, the first one is the signing team's first round pick (unless that team is in the top 15 picks, in which case it is their 2nd round pick). The second pick received will be a "sandwich round" pick between the 1st and 2nd round. This does not affect the signing team at all. A Type-B free agent will give the team losing the player simply a "sandwich pick." There are caveats all over the place, but the most important one is that the player's current team must offer the player arbitration and that player must decline arbitration.

So, if all of the options were declined and all of the players were offered arbitration and declined, the Reds could be looking at as many as 9 draft picks coming this off-season. That's not gonna happen though. It's highly likely that Hernandez and Gomes will be brought back given their cost and the potential cost to replace them. Also, Harang and Cabrera may not be offered arbitration, because they might accept. And who knows what will happen with Arroyo? His option could be picked up. If it's not, though, it is unlikely that he'd accept arbitration since he will likely make more on the free agent market.

I guess what I'm saying is that the Reds might get 9 picks, or they might not get any. That's how the system works. The good news is that if they are losing a lot of players to free agency, they are in good shape to recoup some picks with those losses.

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Harang's only a B?

Man, how far that fell.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Jul 14, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

that is a stupid formula.

I am thrilled for your success, hell I'm amazed by it. Nobody who knows you saw this coming.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know the formula - it is not made public

but I do know that it is incredibly outdated. I believe hitters are weighted heavily on triple crown categories and pitchers are judged on things like wins, ERA, strikeouts, and walks.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

...but may be one of the more fascinating internet debates ever.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Jul 14, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Palestine?

or Type A vs Type B Free Agency?

by Highlifeman21 on Jul 16, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you think he can jump to a type-A with a good second half?

If not, then I’d try to pawn him off for whatever prospect(s) can be had in return. Hopefully there will be some franchise (e.g., WhiteSox, Phillies, Rangers) who will be desperate enough to take on his remaining salary this season.

Is this even remotely possible?

by wanderinredsfan on Jul 14, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt it

He’s much closer to falling out of Type-B than he is to jumping up to Type-A.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, What about the second question:

Does Harang have any value to another team, whatsoever? Is there any way the Reds could pawn him off to another team for a return?

by wanderinredsfan on Jul 14, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt anyone would be willing to pay his salary

or give up prospects for him. My guess is that if Harang is traded, it will be a player dump for low level minor leaguers. I don’t think Jocketty would consider such a deal, especially since Harang is still a contributing pitcher.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jul 15, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

The 2nd half of the season obviously will tell the tale for Gomes and RayMoan

. I would be fairly surprised to see Gomes back as the Reds will once again prolly fuck with his head, offering him another ‘come to camp and we’ll see deal’ but this time there may well be some takers for Gomes. Health may the key for Hernanadez. There is no question that with Dustman returning (as I expect him to) that he will fight his hardest for SloCab fro 2010. My guess is that Harang will not return, unless he magically finds good stuff again But Bronson will be back for 2011, count on it.

Of course a lot depends of what guys like Stubbs and Heisy do and how Rolen’s back holds up.
2011 is going to be an interesting season. Because the team needs a real SS, probably at least one OF, maybe a catcher and of course a closer. So maybe trade some draft picks and prospects to try and fill those needs…and still keep Paul Janish on the bench for one more year.
 

Though some might argue that "best utility player" is a contradiction in terms.
BuubaFan...

by Madville on Jul 14, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

The Reds hold a very cheap option on Gomes ($1.75M)

Unless he totally tanks, I think he’s back next year at that amount.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

depends a lot on Heisey and Stubbs, I would think

He’d likely accept arbitration. And honestly, for as much fun as he is, I’d like a better fielder in left.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Jul 14, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

But arbitration doesn't enter, does it?

They have a $1.75M option on him, regardless.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jul 14, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

arbitration shouldn't matter

if the reds decline the option they probably wouldn’t offer arbitration because it’s possible he’d make more than the 1.75 M

by 'tHan on Jul 14, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is correct

I doubt they’ll get any draft picks from Gomes.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

If they decline his option

they can offer him arbitration, which they would need to do in order to get the draft pick if he signs with another team as a free agent.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

and still keep Paul Janish on the bench for one more year.

Jesus, I hope so. I was hoping they’d be trying to win next year. once every ten years is not enough for me

by timb116 on Jul 14, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think teams can trade draft picks.

When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

by poojols on Jul 14, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

MLB needs to fix this.

"We don't worry about the pennant much, we just like to see the boys hit it deep."

by beasleymachine on Jul 14, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd have a hard time giving Rhodes $4-6M next year

his age makes me nervous.

I am thrilled for your success, hell I'm amazed by it. Nobody who knows you saw this coming.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Because his face makes me nervous too

I would be afraid NOT to give him $4-6M next year. That is probably why I could never manage/own the Reds.

by hachigo! on Jul 14, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think not

$2.5-4 million for one year maybe

by kcgard2 on Jul 14, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Billy Hamilton...

but he won’t be ready before 2013, at the earliest.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jul 14, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hamilton's been playing 2B in Billings so far this year

So I’m not sure we can count on him quite yet. Devin Lohman has been manning SS there and doing ok. The best SS are still on the high minors, with Zack Cozart and Chris Valaika the two guys best suited to play there, in that order. Gregorius in Dayton is a good looking prospect who could make waves, and Junior Arias has been great so far this year, but is in the AZL.

"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin

by BK on Jul 14, 2010 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Zack Cozart isn't potentially great, but

He’ll get on base a decent amount and has good pop for a SS (15-20 HR potential)

His main thing is his great D. He’s got Janish range and an above average arm.

I’m pretty sure he could outperform Lando right now. Having said that, if the right guy was available on the market I’d do it.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jul 14, 2010 11:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

i can see Cozart as a JJ Hardy Lite

back when Hardy was good in 07-08, not the butt salad he’s been the past two seasons. SLG-heavy OPS that hovers around league-average and a great glove. if Cozart does that i’ll lose my goo.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 14, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

no offense, but what you just described is pretty much an all-star

I’d expect something like .250/.320/.390 from Cozart, with the D. That wouldn’t be too bad. But it wouldn’t be too different from Janish. I guess the main difference is if he can take walks to a great extent.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Jul 14, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can see the avg and obp, but he has always slugged over .400,

Not sure why that would suddenly drop. In fact, power is the one thing that usually translates best, since guys keep getting stronger.

And Janish never slugged in the minors like Cozart has

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jul 14, 2010 5:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

agree

Power is usually the last tool to develop, thus translate to the bigs. I truly think Cozart could SLG over .400 right now, with the potential to someday reach .500, with 20+ HR potential.

by wanderinredsfan on Jul 14, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

.390 isn't that severe of a drop

I see it more as a result of less hits and less meatballs than a drop of skills.

His MiLB totals are: .262 .333 .415

So I don’t think I’m too far off, at least for his first year or two.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Jul 15, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Cozart is potentially competent

but he’s a mid 2011 or maybe 2012?

NYC would have a better feel.

Valakia isn’t a very good defensive SS (from what I’ve read), but he’s been hitting.

by timb116 on Jul 14, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

no, he could step in today and hold his own. He has spent the entire season at AAA, so there'd be no reason to keep him there to start next season

What I like is his that his walk rate shot up last year and has stayed close to that this year. Given Reds’ brass recent comments about the difficult adjustment to AAA that has plagued players recently (Alonso, Frazier, Valaika last year) you have to think they like the fact that an elite defensive shortstop is OPSing .754 in his first go-round.

I think barring a trade mid-season, you’ll see him get a shot in ST next year.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Jul 14, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Quote from ESPN ASG recap

"I don’t like the Cubs," Votto said. "And I’m not going to pat anybody with a Cubs uniform on the back. But because he made that really cool play, it turned out to be a really cool experience. I’m really glad we got the win today."

He’s the best.

"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin

by BK on Jul 14, 2010 11:54 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Love it!

"so there was a reason firefox said i spelled that wrong" -- justin007000

by jch24 on Jul 14, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's awesome.

It is the soothing thing about history that it does repeat itself. -Gertrude Stein

by Travis Rehl on Jul 14, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw this in another thread, and I'm trying to figure out the context.

Did he refuse to talk to Marlon Byrd and someone asked why? Did someone ask what he thought about that play? Or did he offer this up unsolicited?

I’m probably the only one who thinks this, but if it’s the last scenario, I kind of think it’s a jackass thing to say.

by the finest muffins on Jul 14, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is nothing jackass about not liking the Cubs

in fact if he offered it up unsolicited he should get some sorta bonus.

I am thrilled for your success, hell I'm amazed by it. Nobody who knows you saw this coming.

by justin007000 on Jul 14, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm assuming he was asked about the play specifically, or something about Byrd

Joey’s not the type to stir the pot, otherwise.

"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin

by BK on Jul 14, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

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