Red Reposter - Take a Breath, It's the All-Star Break

And why would you hit someone who’s been ON FIRE lately 8th?

I will be in NYC as of Friday, still finalizing my schedule but it might work to catch a game at a bar with some of you NYC folk either next Monday the 21st or Tuesday the 22nd.

What do you say?

Why not DH a right handed hitter against the AL’s best lefty? Oh that’s right Howard has questionable photos of Manuel.

Just seems to me like stuff tends to linger a bit with him, and they’ll probably give him 1-2 rehab starts as well. I could be very wrong though.

Here’s a question: If you had to pick one or the other for the rest of the season with no option to switch midway through. In other words, pick your guy and you are stuck with him for the duration, who would you pick….Wood or Harang?

Let Volquez and Leake pitch 3-4 innings each every fifth day, thus limiting their innings?

One great game (or in this case two great games and a pretty good start on short rest) is not an indication of future success. Harang is the man.

you’ve never been admitted to being wrong before, right?

2013 is a $15.5M option with a $3.5M buyout.

so its Haren + 2 draft picks and minus 2-3 current prospects or Arroyo + Alonso/Wood/etc

Arroyo has a club option next year, so if the Reds choose not to exercise it, I don’t think they get picks in return.

The choice is more like whether you want to pay Haren his prorated salary this year (about $3.5MM or so) plus $25.50MM guaranteed over two seasons, plus Arroyo’s $2MM buyout, or to pick-up (or not) Arroyo’s option of $11MM vs. $2MM buyout. And you deal the requisite prospects to acquire Haren.

Haren’s certainly better than Arroyo – and trading for him could be a positive – but there’s a lot of risk – so much so that the Reds resources might be better directed to finding a RP or SS.

Firstly, you know exactly what you’re getting with Arroyo. An ERA a tad on the high side because its skewed by his couple of Badroyo outings, but also a dude who at the break is at 120.1 IP and 9 wins. He does that pretty much every year, and the second half is always better.

Haren is an awesome pitcher, but he’d be moving to a teeny-tiny ballpark in GABP and he already gives up too many HRs. Plus, the number of prospects we’d likely lose might be too pricey.

I’m surprised by his response to restructuring his contract, though-I thought he might be willing to arb it. Guess he’s still feeling the burn from that Boston trade.

I agree with putting Leake in the ’pen for awhile and having Arroyo/Cueto/Volquez/Wood/Maloney as the rotation. If we can dump Harang and Bailey, all the better.

He has good peripherals, which is really what we should look at on any pitcher we’re thinking of acquiring because defense can obscure how a pitcher would look in a new uniform. Also, I think Haren has legit ace stuff. Here are some numbers that I like about him.

Since 2008:
Haren ranks 14th among all big league starters (min. 60 games) with a 132 ERA+
He ranks 10th among the same group in K/9 at 8.60. The only pitcher who ranks higher than him in ERA+ and K/9 is Tim Lincecum.
He ranks 4th in that same group in BB/9 at 1.61(!). Obviously, nobody ranks ahead of him in all three categories.

Compare him to Cliff Lee (ERA+ of 155, K/9 of 7.09, BB/9 of 1.34) and he looks pretty damn favorable.

What I mean by looking at peripherals is that his 2010 record and ERA (7-6, 4.38 ERA) make him look mediocre. Yet, he still has 8.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 (both numbers better than any starter in the Reds organization). The big difference this year is he has given up 10 H/9, up from 7.5 H/9 last year. The difference to me is BABIP, which is mostly outside of the pitcher’s control. Last year his BABIP was .271, though his career BABIP is around .300. This year it is .333. His BABIP on every batted ball type is up 50-70 points this year. It doesn’t help that Haren, who is a slight GB pitcher is playing in front of perhaps the worst defensive infield in the league. That wouldn’t be the case on the Reds.

The only real drawback on Haren is that he gives up a few more home runs than Lee. This is due somewhat in part to his park – Chase Field is almost as HR friendly as GABP. But the thing is, Harang gave up lots of home runs in ’06 and ’07 and was still successful. I think if you put Haren in front of a better defense, his overall numbers will look better mainly because the home runs he gives up will hopefully be with fewer runners on base.

So, the reason I am sold on Haren is two-fold. One, his numbers are comparable to Lee and other top pitchers in the league. And two, he’ll be signed for two years beyond this year. This means he can take the place of Arroyo and Harang as the veteran on the staff, and I think he’s clearly a better pitcher than either of those guys. Plus, I like that Haren had some success while Bryan Price was his pitching coach. Makes me feel comfortable that he will transition to the Reds easily.

we kinda need someone who can play center. DeJesus plays mainly left, but in interleague he played CF.

That sounds like flashes of the Trade all over again. Giving up a very important offensive player for bullpen help? Unless the bullpen help you’re getting is Mariano Rivera, I don’t think it’s worth it right now. Also, the Reds are not going to trade for a closer. Cordero is the closer, especially in management’s eyes, and if he continues to struggle I think Rhodes gets a shot. It’s the 6th, 7th, and 8th inning guys who might need some improvement, and you can get that for a lot less than Gomes.

Tell me it will end when the reds refuse to pick up Cabrera 2011 option and I will be giddy

Janish and Heisey are here, cheap and still pretty young.

but he’s good, he’ll get the chance again

and brandon larson took him deep!

the neighbor not only aroused the husband, but she aroused the wife’s anger as well