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A Convenient Problem: The Pitching Logjam

Sam LeCure has been throwing well without getting much run support, Volques was impressing in an extended Spring Training game and should be right around the corner from rejoining the team, Homer had an unimpressive start last night, but has been overall solid this year for a back of the rotation starter. Chapman is still sexy, especially after the 14k debut of Walter Johnson`s reincarnation over in Washington, but has not been torching the minors recently, and walks people like it is going out of style. BUT our bullpen has been shakey.

Harang

Cueto

Arroyo

Leake

LeCure

 Bailey will probably have to throw at least one more game in triple A after last night`s performance, but will be up again soon, I`m going to say about two or three weeks and Volquez will be ready. Who do you got? I feel a big move to the bullpen coming soon OR I think a trade might be coming rather soon for Harang. We will se how he does tonight. Chapman won`t be challenging anytime soon unless he moves to the bullpen, which I don`t see Walt ok`ing.

 For Me:

Cueto

Leake

Arroyo

Bailey

Volquez

 

I think Harang should go to the bullpen, and I think he would perform well there, I don`t think he would be happy about it however...he hardly looks happy about anything. Masset needs to decipher his asshole from the strike zone, he is hurting the team as an unstable set up man to an unstable closer.

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Ready to conceive!

Amiright??

"We don't worry about the pennant much, we just like to see the boys hit it deep."

by beasleymachine on Jun 9, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah

I think Volquez’s “due date” is probably early to mid August. And even then, he should probably go into the ’pen.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jun 9, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

no bullpen for volquez

too much strain warming him up on consecutive days.

you can control his pitch count and schedule a lot more easily if he’s in the rotation

by 'tHan on Jun 9, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was only half joking about the two headed monster of Leake and Volquez

If you want to control their innings/pitch counts, why not go to a system where one of them starts and the other comes on in the 4th/5th inning? It would save the bullpen, too.

"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Jun 9, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't agree

I don’t think a rule about having him not warm up on consecutive days is materially different than some kind of pitch count per start. It still involves innings that have to be made up by other relievers. And to pitch in the rotation, he’d have to be up to the normal schedule of bullpen sessions anyway. So you only bring him back if he’s up to the task of major league pitching and I think he would pitch less and more effectively in a bullpen.

If he started, with Leake we’d have two starters with caps on their innings in the rotation. That doesn’t seem wise. I think jch’s idea is pretty interesting, but it would also burn a bullpen spot, as probably neither Leake nor Volquez would be available until their next co-start.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jun 9, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lost in this bullpen talk

don’t forget 40-man rosters in September. So that would allow a lot more flexibility for Volquez’s availability since there’ll be plenty of relievers to choose from by then.

So can we deal with a slightly more handcuffed bullpen for a couple weeks in August? I honestly don’t think the answer is “yes” with the current 7.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Jun 9, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

you could almost use Coco as closerA and Volquez as CloserB

when Coco has pitched two nights in a row use the wagon for the third night.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

When you are playing to stay in first place you don`t give players much rope when they arent performing…especially when you are losing games because of the bullpen.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is no necessarily so

In the first two months of 2002, Scott Williamson did not pitch on back to back days. It was a team rule that he was not allowed to pitch two days in a row. He also wasn’t allowed to warm up on back to back days, because he had Tommy John Surgery in April of 2001.

Matt Morris did not make a single start in 2000, recovering from 1999 Tommy John Surgery. He did not pitch in back to back days the entire season, his first big league appearance was May, 30, rather when he did pitch it seemed he often went multiple innings.

Ryan Dempster returned from from Tommy John Surgery in August of 2004, after going under the knife in August of 2003. He pitched on back to back days on only four occasions in 2004 and once he pitched 3 days in a row. Of course he was pitching under Dusty and the Cubs were in a playoff chase. But Dusty has shown to have learned from his mistakes, he has treated Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, and Leake with care.

This proves that if an organization puts limits on a pitcher, he doesn’t have to warm up or pitch on back to back days. The Reds started out 2002 pretty hot, they were in first place for a lengthy period of time, but they were able to hide Williamson in the bullpen the first two months of the season. Pretty much the rule with Volquez should be that if he warms up, he pitches, and he pitches clean innings. Make him the 7th or 8th inning guy and don’t try to get him up quickly so he can clean up a mess.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, maybe

Another thing to keep in mind is that pitching out of the bullpen usually requires that he be able to warm up quickly. A starter coming off of surgery will probably have a hard time with that.

Ron Robinson had a similar problem in 1990 after coming off of 2 elbow surgeries. They wanted him to pitch in the bullpen, but he could never get warmed up enough, so they traded his ugly ass for Glenn Braggs.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jun 9, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

we should put Braggs in the bullpen.

and let him play third when Rolen sits.

Seriously, using Volquez as a relief pitcher seems a bit bizarre unless you are talking about him coming in amid a third-inning meltdown. Dusty has shown he won’t yank a starter that early anyhow, so when do you actually get effective relief from EV?

Alka Seltzer, yeah I know.

In such situations, I wonder if EV (as a fill-in reliever) is even close to the solution we are seeking in the bullpen. I just don’t see him as a decent option to … say, Owings … in that role only.

This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan

by johnu1 on Jun 9, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

well

I will say that if Volquez can handle the warm-up-sit-down cycle of bullpen work after the injury, having a guy that can throw 97 in the bullpen with a nasty change up wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Jun 9, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, IF he can do that.

Will he have 97 in his tank after the TJ?

This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan

by johnu1 on Jun 9, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, yeah ... it's do-able.

I guess I tend to hazard more on the side of caution. The belief that EV is a bullpen solution is more of him being “an idea we might be willing to consider.”

The two aren’t exactly the same and if it works, it sets other gears into motion. If it fails, he’s still a starting pitcher.

This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan

by johnu1 on Jun 9, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

even if his velocity is down a bit this season

he will still probably be throwing 92 or so with a nasty change up which is plenty useful.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

TJ surgery isn’t what it used to be and pitchers are coming back routinely with higher velocity.

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 10, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I gave you three different examples of pitchers returning from TJ

and how they were used.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Plus

You dont really want your #1 throwing in the pen during clutch situations because…

Bullpen guys are going in there to throw hard and keep batters from hitting the ball anywhere in situations where there are runners on late in the game (for the most part)

We wouldnt want him going into a game with a “blow em away” attitude, which he would probably get naturally from the mental mindset of a relief guy.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I mean you want this...

But not with a guy who rehabbed from TJ right before.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he is in extended Spring training throwing 94...

His pitch count was around 100, doesnt look like he is being eased in at this point, if he throws well in a few rehab starts, there isn`t much reason to keep him away. He is our #1 starter when playing.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

probably will be next year

but tell me how many pitchers returned from TJ and were immediately successful 12 month later?

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

these guys?

John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, David Wells, Matt Morris, Jason Isringhausen, Tom Gordon, Jon Lieber, Erik Bedard, Paul Byrd, Chris Capuano, Billy Koch, and Rafael Soriano.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

i meant to write immediatly sucessful as starting pitchers

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

so I will pick through the starting pitchers

John Smoltz: He made 5 starts, going 3, 5.1, 6.2, 7, and three innings. He had an ERA of 5.76 over that time. He pitched 25 innings in those 5 starts, struck out 20 and walked 5, both pretty decent. Yet he had an opposing OPS of .863.

David Wells: Never had Tommy John

Matt Morris: Had Tommy John in 1999 and spent all of 2000 pitching in the bullpen.

Jason Isringhausen: Not an effective starting pitcher after Tommy John and was moved to the bullpen.

Jon Lieber: Had Tommy John late in the 2002 did not pitch at all in 2003.

Erik Bedard: Had Tommy John in 2002 and missed the entire 2003 season.

Paul Byrd: Had Tommy John Surgery in July, 2003, did return to be effective in 2004 as a starting pitcher.

Chris Capuano had Tommy John Surgery in 2008, has made one appearance since his surgery.

Koch, Wagner, Gordon, and Soriano are relief pitchers, so they are unimportant. But of those 7 starters you listed, only 1 of them returned to the starting rotation 12 months later as was effective.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I....

Just pulled that list from an article about the most famous TJ surgeon, there wasn`t really much info there beside a list of names.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

But to back up my point with solider evidence...

Josh Johnson
(Capuano had TJ twice, hasnt returned since second)
AJ Burnett
Chris Carpenter (over a year and less than two)
Tim Hudson
Shaun Marcum
Carl Pavano
Kenny Rogers
Anibal Sanchez
Tommy John

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

You gave a nice list of names here who returned quickly

but you gave a list of names in the other who didn’t. Relief pitchers come back quickly, starters may or may not. I think the Reds would do better placing the wagon in the ’pen, and let him dominate with velocity and and a changeup. Plus he could hold off on his slider until next year when he is more fully healed, which might be better for his arm in the long term.

Which would you rather have?

Volquez as a mediocre starter, or a lights out relief pitcher?

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

If your point is that EV is likely more effective in relief

after he comes back than as a starter, I don’t have the horsepower to argue with that. My guess is that the shape of the pitching staff at the time will legislate all of that.

I can’t see the Reds currently making room for him in the rotation but I can see them making room for him in the bullpen. That’s a lot easier to do. I also see EV back in the rotation in 2011, probably not before.

This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan

by johnu1 on Jun 10, 2010 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think ultimately

It`s just a toss up, you never know whats going to happen when you get that ligament replaced. I guess we will see, I would much rather baby Volquez and keep his career in tact than rush him back with the plethora of talent we have

by Reynard on Jun 10, 2010 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather play with a weighted coin

and be more likely to win that toss up with Volquez in the bullpen. Plus Harang is still a serviceable starter.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 10, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I concur with Justin

Let his Volton-ness come back slowly and become a BP force…then if he’s needed in the rotation he’ll be re-acclimated.

My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.

by Madville on Jun 10, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yea why ruin his career.

Potentially next year you have the following rotation: Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, and Chapman. Hows that look? That is VERY scary for all the teams in the NL, IMO. I think you bring Volquez back when he is ready and we lean on the side of caution. We have capable guys here this year. That being said I’m not saying I wouldn’t allow him to start this year but I would be very cautious.

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 10, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

What happened to Bailey?

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 10, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who would you take out?

I like Bailey but do you see him as a better alternative then any of those starters? If anything happens then he would be next in line IMO. I really like Bailey but I just don’t think he is better than those 5. What about having him as a closer? I’m not sure its the best for him or that he would like it but…

If any of those 5 were hurt or had any issues then you have him in the 5th spot.

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 10, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't rely on Chapman just yet

Plus the Reds hold an option on Arroyo.

Chapman 2010=Baily 2008.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 10, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

err

Chapman 2010=Bailey 2007.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 10, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chapman should be ready next year...

Especially as a FIFTH starter, which is where I have him. That allows him a full year, plus an offseason, plus another Spring Training. Will he win 20 games? No But he will give the team a good fifth starter spot with showing some great performances from time to time. What better time to break him in with the other 4 starters on that list. I think he will be ready to go next year and if not then Bailey would be next on the list. I don’t think that would be an issue though. How much do you really expect out of that fifth starter spot?

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 10, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I said next year too...

Did you see that? Not this year so if you made the comparison it would have to be Chapman 2011=Bailey 2007

I was making the point not to do anything to jeopardize Volquez for the future.

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 10, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

So..

we agree to agree? I am alwyas wanting to have the cosmos work together for the perfect amazing fast healing, but I`d also like to make sure we keep Volquez healing well and not get him Dustied up…again

by Reynard on Jun 11, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Like I said have to protect his future

How scary is the following rotation in 2011?: Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, and Chapman. If anyone falters we have plenty of options with Bailey and the way Lecure is pitching but if we go into the 2011 season with those 5 we could be extremely dangerous. Imagine a 3 man rotation if we made the post season of Volquez, Cueto, and Leake, Arroyo, or Chapman (Whomever is pitching the best out of the last 3). That would be scary for any team and I believe we could easily hold our own, and make some noise in the very near future if they all continue to improve.

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 13, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I ain't buyin' into the trade idea

I think trading a pitcher now is the last think WJ wants to do. The morale of the Reds is still very high and sustainable. Trading one of the key players sends the wrong message.

I do confess that business and morale are frequently not the same but trading the guy who was your OD starter in June or July is pretty blatantly cruel, dontcha think?

This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan

by johnu1 on Jun 9, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions  

I also wish I'd read what I write before I post it.

(Talk about misplaced modifiers.)

This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan

by johnu1 on Jun 9, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really

We gave him a lot of money and made him our opening day starter for years, but he isn`t as good as he used to be. People are stepping up in our staff that are young with more ability, and when you look at his record the past 2 1/2 years he isnt playing well enough to be considered a #1,2 or 3 in the majors or on our roster.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why Not...

Trade Harang for a solid reliever?

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

great idea

lets see if somebody will still pay him about the $10 M he is still owed between the rest of his 2010 contract and his buytout!

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even better

trade Cairo for a solider relief pitcher!

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

We would have to

Eat part of his contract. I bet the Nationals would, Bowden will pay anything to have a washed up ex-Red on his team.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

ummmm

Bowden hasnt had a job in Washington for a couple of years.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 9, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

HA

Could have fooled me

by Reynard on Jun 10, 2010 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

how?

The Nationals are actually taking steps towards winning.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 10, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

well...

The point I was trying to prove was ex Reds players Mr. Devils Advocate, they are taking steps to being a .500 team with “Jesus” as the first round pick making his debit on a franchise that needs to develope.

No point in starting a franchise if you dont want to build a winning team, but the division is tough and it isnt happening this year or next. Two or three years and the Nationals will be a winning team, and I do hope for the long term, as I hate every other team in thatt division.

by Reynard on Jun 11, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

strong argument.

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wish people would quit saying we gave him a lot of money

This year, yes, he makes $12mil. The contract was $36 million for 4 years. He made $4.25 million the year he was 4th in the Cy Young Award. The year before he made $2.35 million when he lead or tied the league in wins, K’s, and Complete Games. He made $6.75 million the year he was pitching brilliantly and Dusty blew out his arm. He did all of this for you, the Reds fans, for you to throw it back in his face. And regardless, he still shows flashes of brilliance.
The starters are the reason we are still in this thing. Don’t fuck with them. There is no reason to.

by Jack Armstrong started an All Star Game on Jun 9, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

right

Harang has been worth waaaay more than his contract. he just did all his damage at the front end.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 9, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Im grateful

I love Harang, but its a business and we have some young guns, I think he is pitching better this year than he has the past two.

Regardless, as I put in the title of the post “convenient problem” No matter what the starting 5 looks like the others should absolutely be utilized in the bullpen.

Volquez, Bailey, Harang, Cueto, Chapman, LeCure, Arroyo, Leake

It doesnt matter how you look at it, it is nice.

by Reynard on Jun 10, 2010 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome back, Reynard!

How ya been?

"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Jun 9, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Thank you!

I havent been bad at all, Im employed, and the Reds are winning…isn`t really much to complain about at this point.

by Reynard on Jun 9, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

definitely a good argument

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 9, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the immediate future

I’d seriously consider putting LeCure in the pen on Bailey’s return.

Wood, Maloney and Chapman should remain as spot starters, in that order, in AAA – with the possibility of calling one of them up to limit Leake’s late season innings or as an addition to the bullpen before August 31.

Before date, Rosario should get an extended look and trade might need to be anoption as it’s pretty unclear what can be expected of either Bray or Burton. If Masset’s still floundering in a month, they need to find a righthanded stopper.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jun 9, 2010 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Harang is coming around.

LeCure has already volunteered to go to the pen if the Reds want him there.
Going back to the ‘old school’ approach of bringing up young guys and giving them some experience in the pen may be a short term solution to the Red’s abysmal BP…until Walt can put together a deal to buy/trade for some experienced relief help.

My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.

by Madville on Jun 10, 2010 6:32 AM EDT reply actions  

the Reds are having trouble taking batting practice!?

"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey

by justin007000 on Jun 10, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good Grief.

My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.

by Madville on Jun 10, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

I feel pretty good about where the Reds are right now, bullpen wise.

LeCure should be able to help out there. Also, Bray and Burton are down on the farm working to get back up. Volquez, if he comes back this year, would be a tremendous improvement out of the pen in certain situations. And there is always Chapman.

But I see Bray being a really big piece of the puzzle. If he can come back and be effective think how much pressure that takes off Rhodes. Another quality lefty out there would be pretty sweet.

But with all that being said the Reds certainly need some one to step up and get us to Rhodes and Cordero.

If Masset regains his confidence we will be fine given all the options the Reds have in the system. But right now that is a mighty big if.

"I don't challenge Murphy, even if he's 0 for 20. Not him, not ever." - Mario Soto

by Caleb on Jun 10, 2010 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah

At the end of the day, we are in a place where we don`t need to make a trade to solidify our pitching staff, which is glorious, and we have enough prospects to make a good team for long term. All we need to do now is get the fuckers in Cinci to go to the games, we have a legit organization for the first time top to bottom in a while…. oh did I say glorious already?

It is glorious. Think about how good we would be if Walt got to pick his manager too.

by Reynard on Jun 11, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree with....

We don’t need to make a trade to solidify our pitching staff. If you mean our starters then yea I fully agree, however we could definitely use the upgrade to the pen. We could easily have a 4+ game lead in the Central if our Pen only blew half of the leads they have had. I think you were meaning starters, in which case I agree.

by C1ncy4Life on Jun 13, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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