Leake, Innings, and Pitchcounts.
by justin007000 on Jun 6, 2010 12:36 AM EDT
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PrintMike Leake is currently on pace to throw 211 innings. That sounds kinda high for a rookie, especially a rookie with no previous professional experience. Fay argues that the Reds won't let Leake get close to 211 innings. Yet I don't think the innings are really an issue. The most pitches Leake has thrown in a start is 106, he has average 98.55 pitches per start. My question is, considering that Leake doesn't even average 100 pitches per start, how relevant is limiting the number of innings he throws? Would 32 starts, throwing 98 pitches per starts, be detrimental to his arm?
Also what do the Reds do if they are still in contention come August, if they decide Leake has reached his innings cap? Welsh today suggested using Chapman, but I can't imagine Chapman would be in much better shape come August, as this is also his first professional season, and it isn't like throwing pitches in AAA is stress free. I guess Wood and Maloney are in Louisville and could be used if needed, but Leake is the superior pitcher, and in a close race Leake could be the difference.
I know there are cautionary tales about other young starting pitchers who were burned out in playoff chases. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were different. In 1998 Wood made 14 starts where he threw at least 107 pitches (one more pitch than Leake's season high to this point), 8 starts where he threw more than 120 pitches, and he threw 133 pitches against Cincinnati in his second to last of the regular season in 1998. In 2002 Prior made 7 starts where he threw 107+ pitches, and was allowed to throw 135 pitches in a start. In 2003 Prior made 20 starts where threw at least 107 pitches, 9 starts where he threw 120+ pitches and 3 starts where he threw 130+ pitches.
If Leake continues to pitch well he should not come close to throwing that many pitches. When Leake pitches well he doesn't throw a lot of pitches, he wracks up strikeouts, but he isn't a strikeout pitcher, and he has superb command so he doesn't walk too many hitters, that lowers his pitch count. He seems quite able to get outs early in the count.
I think the Reds should watch Leake's workload closely, but I think they should be more concerned about the number of pitches he throws, rather than the number of innings. I don't think they should automatically shut him down at a pre-prescribed inning, rather look at his pitch counts, and also look at his success, if he suddenly loses a bit of velocity or command, shut him down, but if he continues to breeze through the league, he is probably fine.
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You're right about Leake's pitch counts being more important than innings
Since he doesn’t give up too many runs, he’s able to go deeper into games on fewer pitches. I think the way the Reds have handled him this year has been exemplary. He’s only gone over 100 pitches once (his first start), and tonight was only the second time he’s thrown triple digits. I think they’ll stick with him throughout the year.
On another Leake note
BLee and I were having a sort of serious discussion about whether or not Mike Leake should bat leadoff when he starts. I love watching the guy bat.
Leake's hitting
… is interesting, probably an anomaly and certainly helpful to his own cause.
But it is important to remember that he is a pitcher first and if he decides he really does know how to run the bases, he stands a lot more chance of being hurt than if he throws too many pitches in a game.
The other question about shelving him is not being asked. How does THAT affect his work for 2011? The notion that he just “stop pitching” so that he can be better in 2011, ummm …. let’s have that conversation as well. What if he comes back in the spring and sucks because his 2010 season was abruptly cut short by well-wishers? Does Dusty get blamed for that one too, like he did Wood and Prior?
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
I love watching him run!
The people in my section were impressed by his wheels on that run he scored last night.
by the finest muffins on Jun 6, 2010 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions
This is exactly what Erardi's article was supposed to be about this morning
but space issues pushed it back to next week. I told him they missed a grand opportunity with Leake starting the previous night. Now the piece is going to seem out of place.
Here’s a taste of some of the stuff that I sent to John:
Want to know why I’m not concerned about his innings? He’s thrown 1 inning this year where he’s thrown more than 25 pitches. Including his start last night, he’s thrown over 20 pitches in an inning just 10 times. 86% of his innings have ended in less than 20 pitches.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ pitcher abuse points (PAP), which is somewhat convoluted and not intuitive, the Reds are doing very well with Mike Leake. The league leader is Ubaldo Jimenez with a PAP of 67,980. The Reds team leader is Aaron Harang (again) at 17,558, he is 25th in the majors. He’s followed on the Reds by Homer Bailey (14,977 – 31st), Johnny Cueto (9,794 – 49th), Bronson Arroyo (3,845 – 79th) and Mike Leake (341 – 136th). I know the numbers don’t make any sense (they don’t to me either), but maybe the scale can give you some perspective. What this says to me is that Leake, despite pitching 73 innings so far, is far from being abused. There are 2 reasons why – 1. He’s ridiculously efficient. When you’re not throwing a lot of pitches in an inning, it’s easy to go deeper into games without throwing a lot of pitches. 2. The Reds have been very cautious with him. He’s only thrown over 100 pitches 4 times, and never more than 106.
Leake is 17th in the big leagues this year in fewest number of pitches per inning (min. 50 IP). He’s the only pitcher in the top 35 under the age of 25. That’s pretty damn cool.
I hope the Reds realize that it’s pitches, not innings, that matter. The good news is that they should be able to use off-days and the All-star break to manipulate Leake’s turns in the rotation and get him a couple of extra days off. So they can be cautious with him without shutting him down completely.
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What if he makes the All Star team?
Its not outside the realm of possibility if he keeps it up.
The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!
Then he makes it
it’s only 2 innings. Hopefully he won’t pull a Jack Armstrong/Brad Penny and try to strike everyone out.
If he doesn’t make the ASG, he’s on schedule to possibly have 12 days off during that span, if they’d like.
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Reds ASG choice
Votto maybe.
But Selig and the rest of MLB’s “braintrust” will market this game anyway they can.
Leake looks like an automatic if he continues to shine.
CoCo could get in there.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
Yeah, I thought about this. It works well because the ASB is M-W, and the Reds have Thur. off as well.
If he pitched, say, Friday or Saturday before the ASB, they could start the rotation with him as #5 after the break, and that would give him something like 10 days off.
It’s possible that’s all they’d need and combined with the extra days here and there due to off days, I think he’d be fine.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
the extra rest would be nice for a young guy like leake
but if he continues to outshine everybody in our rotation then it might be smart to experiment with him as our #1 the first few times through after the break. if he falters, plan for him to get an extra day or two off and drop him back down to 3, 4, or 5.
something else that could be nice is if (and this is a very big ‘if’) volquez comes back strong and effective we could go with a 6-man rotation for a few weeks to get everyone an extra day of rest to position for a stretch run.
"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki
This is just a hypothetical
but would you still want Leake to pitch in the All-Star Game if he were to turn into Jack Armstrong? Personally, I believe the All-Star Game screwed up Armstrong. I wouldn’t mind if Leake didn’t pitch in the ASG, and it has nothing to do with stats.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
there is always 2011
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 7, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Does velocity make a difference?
Wood and Prior threw harder, especially Wood. On our own team, Volquez throws harder. Given that Leake is in the upper 80’s instead of mid-90’s, does that make a difference?
My thought is that they should give him an extra day of rest whenever possible. When there’s an off day, keep the other starters on their schedules, and push Leake back, so he winds up with 30 starts instead of 33.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
Bobby Livingston tore his labrum and he could barely touch 88.
I don’t think velocity has much to do with injuries. Roger Clemans and Randy Johnson both threw hard and were healthy.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
I think you're generalizing.
I am curious as to the whole body of evidence regarding velocity and injuries.
I have no data
but there are an awful lot of soft tossers who have suffered arm injuries. Plus their are hard tossers who have injury free careers. I think it all comes down to mechanics, a guy who throws in a more stressful way, may be more likely to suffer a serious injury, despite his velocity, than a guy with good mechanics.
I hope this in intelligible, I am tired and ill, but I can’t sleep.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 7, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
roger clemens was also on steroids...
here is a study that got published at the beginning of this season that i originally saw linked from an article about volquez. that’s just about the only thing i’ve ever seen on this matter.
"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki
My question is
why start him with the big club, if they were not prepared to let him pitch a complete, healthy season. Seems like something they would have discussed already.
A Pete Rose by any other name would still smell of cheap hookers and pinetar.
Agreed.
If the Reds are in serious contention down the stretch, this guy pitches. Leake is a very efficient pitcher. That bodes well for him. He doesn’t have to throw in winter ball if he needs a break.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 6, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Lincoln could teach him about conditioning!
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
This was my question.
How does shutting him down help him for 2011?
For all we know, shutting him down early would be worse than letting him pitch.
I think we are over-worrying about this, to be honest, depending on people who came up some data sheets and are by-god intent on proving them accurate.
I am also a tad weary of comparing anybody to Wood and Prior.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
well i think what it is
he would throw more innings as a minor league pitcher than he did as a amatuer, but only throw a month or 2 longer than he did his senior year of high. Than he would be built up to pitch through September the next year.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 7, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I still smell the same old story
Baker Wood and Prior / Baker Wood and Prior / Baker Wood and Prior.
Enough, please. It’s Cubs 2003 whiny ass excuse making!
Mike Leake is already 135 miles ahead of those two guys. I can “get it” about building up his endurance over a long season but there is only vague assumption that he will suffer any sort of injury.
Of course if he does, whatever it takes to make the Dusty legend work out to our liking. Baker Wood Prior and Leake
Joking aside, nobody can prove to me that shelving this guy on the first of September will do anything positive for his pitching mechanics. In fact, I am once again asking if anybody can prove that it will not HURT his mechanics.
That is my question. I suppose if I ask it again … oh what’s the use? It’s apparently too complicated a question. We’d rather just say Baker Wood and Prior, Baker Wood and Prior.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
You're the one who keeps bringing up Wood and Prior
Nearly all of us got past that a while ago. Come join us up here in the front, the view is fantastic.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
I only brought them up for comparisons sake
and so far Leake is not being treated like either pitcher.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 7, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
I do believe that Mike Leake is much more Greg Maddux (or Bronson Arroyo, if you are uncomfortable with the comp) than Kerry Wood or Mark Prior. In 2003, Prior was throwing 16 pitches per inning. In 2004, it was 17 pitches per inning. In 1998, Wood was at 17 pitches per inning, same in 2003. Leake is just under 15 pitches per inning this year.
It’s the pitches more than the innings that matter. I’d bet that Leake will get to 185 innings this year and will only throw about 2800 pitches. I think both are acceptable numbers.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
I was talking more to john, but it applies to everyone
It’s the second week of June and the Reds are tied for first place. Read that again. The Reds are in first place.
I’m not saying run around with blinders on, but I think we as Reds fans have come to expect the precipitous drop off the cliff after that damned Road Runner tricks us. I’ve heard more than a few times from people that they’re “waiting for the other shoe to drop”.
Screw waiting for bad news. Screw looking forward to September and what the Reds can/will/should do with Mike Leake and expecting a bad decision. They could go to a two-headed monster system of him and Volquez each throwing three innings when that turn comes up for all I care.
In 2003 I was a fresh faced newlywed and had yet to purchase the house that I would eventually lose in a divorce. I don’t give a shit about that and I don’t give a shit about what Dusty did or didn’t do to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. I’m looking forward to this week, and after that next week. I’ve got a damned good feeling about this team this year and I’ll be damned if something that happened seven years ago to a team I hate make me nervous.
I’m worried about taking five of the next seven games before having to face another team I hate, the Dodgers.
As far as the subject matter at hand, let the kid pitch. As Slyde said it’s pitches not innings, and he’s incredibly efficient. He’ll be fine.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
by jch24 on Jun 7, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
My bad, it SHOULD be directed more at you than john
I hadn’t actually read the FanPost yet, just the comments.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
Ummmmm ....
The question was
Joking aside, nobody can prove to me that shelving this guy on the first of September will do anything positive for his pitching mechanics. In fact, I am once again asking if anybody can prove that it will not HURT his mechanics.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
You can't prove a negative
Everyone moved on to some other discussion.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 7, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure why when he is shutdown would have anything to do with the affect on his mechanics
Shutting him down is simply for the purpose of putting less wear on his arm.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
It's not like once he's shut down he stops throwing altogether
bullpen sessions here and there, continuing to work on the mechanics, etc
but, if he is shutdown, then he’s not pitching meaningful innings for us anymore
by Highlifeman21 on Jun 7, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
What part of "let the kid pitch" did you not understand exactly?
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
what puzzles me
all lies in jest, still the man hears what he wants to hear, disregards the rest.
I am the one who is tired of the Baker Wood and Prior comparisons, yet I am the one accused of continuing to bring it into the conversation. I read the original post and find that something from 2003 has no bearing on this.
I asked whether shutting down Leake early was a good idea, because that has been the thrust of MOST conversations about him.
Am I wrong about that?
So why suddenly is a question about that not relevant? Because all of YOU decided that you’d rather not answer that question, therefore making it a question that has no value.
Frankly, I find the entire mindset of this board somewhat confusing at times. If the question can be answered with a snide remark, it gets a “green” on it. All I wanted to do was expand the conversation but that’s not what most of you prefer.
So you blame me for bringing it up.
How’s that supposed to work among educated people?
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
please see
While you have been known to bring it up out of the blue, you had every reason to this time. Mea culpa.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
I think maybe I can spend my time better elsewhere
than trying to expand my baseball knowledge on these boards.
Ask a question and … so far, it’s still not even being addressed, let alone discussed.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
I tried to apologize for being wrong and you act like you're going to leave because you're so offended?
See ya.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
well yes
I turned unnecessarily defensive about this. I am inclined to take a pause and reflect on that.
Frankly, I have a ton of issues with discussions through the message board forum.
But in defense of “me,” I like the whaddifs and yabbits that go along with this sort of shit.
Ain’t no such thing as the routine 4-6-3, is there?
So I accept the apology and hope to move on from there.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
No worries
I’m on your side here. I too am tired of hearing about how Dusty will ruin all the young pitching we have. If he’s ruined anybody since he’s been here it was Harang, and even that is questionable in my mind. It wasn’t using Harang in the SD game that was devastating, it was letting him pitch on his normal schedule afterward. The FO could have/should have stepped in and called someone up to pitch.
And yeah, Dusty didn’t screw up the Cubs’ chance at winning. Being the Cubs screwed up the Cubs’ chances of winning.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
Ah the joys of love lost ....
… Cubs fans have it all, don’t they?
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
so what exactly were we disagreeing about?
Honestly this was one of the most confusing debates I’ve ever had on this site, and I really have no idea what it was about.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
I was just trying to say I'm just about tired of hearing the stupid "Dusty ruins young arms blah blah blah" crap
And I’m sure you agree. The problem is by bringing it up every time we talk about a young pitcher, we’re contributing to the problem.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
I never actually mentioned Dusty
I wasn’t even thinking about Dusty ruining young arms. I cited Kerry Wood’s rookie season, when he was pitching under Riggleman, not Dusty.
I am fairly okay with Dusty’s management of the young arms.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
Dusty didnt ruin the arms
the GM did, the bullpen was turrible. really, really bad. Wood and Price HAD to go deep into games for the ballclub to be successful.
and there isnt a pitcher out there who would give up the ball during a possible championship season.
"then skip it"....
Price?
but in all seriousness you are correct. Should Dusty take some of the blame? Perhaps, but if they were ruined by high pitch counts, it was an organizational failure. Larry Rothschild and/or Jim Hendry could have stepped in.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
I won't add much more here
other than … the Cubs sold their souls. Fact is, the meltdown 3 years later is what really brings Cubbos to the boiling point. Failing anybody to really blame, they throw it back on Baker.
This is really a billy goat of a different color, which was generally the source of my dismay over it.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
if Dusty would have laid off of Prior and Wood
and that cost the Cubs a couple of ballgames and the wildcard, Dusty would be ridiculed for that.
The biggest failure of 2003 for Dusty was his reaction to the Bartman play. He really should have gone out there to calm Prior down, rather he watched the game melt down before him.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
Dusty's comments lately
would suggest he would do that again if the moment arose.
I don’t want to whip old milk in hopes of making new butter, but the anger toward Dusty really came during the big brutal bitch session in 06 with Steve Stone.
That the team spent the first 79 days of Derek Lee’s injury without a replacement before they signed some cookie (Phil Nevin) from Houston tells me they had their heads up their butts and … hopefully still do.
Milton Bradley anyone?
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
Steve Stone and Dusty went at it in 2004
Although that was pretty nuts, I don’t think Stone or Caray said anything too out of line. Mercker should have left the commentary to the commentators, and pitched. There was no reason for Mercker to scream at Steve Stone on the team charter.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
I guess it was 04
man oh man, I have lost it!
The 2006 collapse was totally different.
End of season 2004 comments:
Stone: “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth. Let me tell you something, guys, the truth of this situation is [this is] an extremely talented bunch of guys who want to look at all directions except where they should really look, and kind of make excuses for what happened.”
Baker: “It shocked me. A man can say what he wants to say. I don’t understand it, I don’t understand the timing of it. Bad timing. If there’s something personal, you need to talk about it. You don’t broadcast it to everybody else. I don’t know where he’s coming from. I feel bad for my team and I feel sorry for him to even do that. That’s bewildering to me.”
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
My question was all that concerned me
I asked, again for clarity:
If shutting Leake down in September to save his arm is good for him, how do we know that it won’t be bad for him in 2011? Any other ancillary discussion was among the rest of you.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
I never actually suggested shutting Leake down
As long as he is pitch efficient, I think he can pitch through the season. Now if he hits a wall, shut him down.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
shutting Leake down
has been suggested, even debated.
In fact, I was of the belief that the Reds had all but embraced this policy. For sure, the ballclub isn’t being led around by Verducci.
FWIW, this thread has served a useful purpose and I would like to see it taken to some more lengths. Sadly, the people who are into the “shutdown” aren’t likely to come here and explain what they know or suspect.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
its "new math"
shutting down arms is good for pitchers. pitchers should only throw 30 more innings per season until they leave “the injury nexus”.
fine and dandy, but throwing a baseball is an inherently damaging activity. mike marshall has some interesting thoughts on pitchers throwing more, not less. (albeit with different mechanics)
"then skip it"....
Now, as for your question
I don’t think Leake’s mechanics will be hurt one way or the other. Even if he’s “shut down” for the season, he’s still going to be working out and throwing a little. I would hope by now that his mechanics are set in stone.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
Actually Dusty Baker is a conicdence.
In my view, for the most part he has handled the young pitchers pretty well.
The only reason I brought Wood and Prior up was as a comparison (Wood and Prior are the poster boys for burnt out young arms, and they provided me with an easy, quick, and dirty comparison), and as I wrote, Leake does not compare to Wood or Prior. I am not advocating shutting him down if he continues to breeze through the league. He doesn’t throw a lot of pitches. I probably could have written this more explicitly but the reason I wrote this Fanpost, was because Fay is convinced that the Reds are going to shut him down, and I don’t think that is necessary.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 7, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
and actually if you read the original post
you would see that I discussed Woods workload in 1998.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
You were probably the victim without cause.
I reflect and apologize for going in that direction. I am no Baker supporter but I did try to defend the dude against the Cubs fans who kept posting that they hoped we Reds fans would suffer a similar fate after Dusty “ruined” their only pennant hopes in the last 102 years. I kept thinking, … like, get over it. AGonzalez booted a 3-hopper at shortstop.
I have already read their diatribe about Volquez and Bailey, still blaming Dusty … and secretly hoping, I think, that Leake gets hurt so they can keep blaming him.
Mostly I see a lot of stuff written about abuse points, Verducci and dozens of other saber-scribes … my only question was … if you project one outcome, then project a different one based on a similar set of conditions.
If shutting Leake down for the summer is good for his arm, can you say it will still be good for his arm in 2011? If you can’t say one thing is good, then you can’t prove the other is sensible. The key word here is, naturally “proof,” which is what we can never establish.
Does that make sense?
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
It does make sense
and I don’t think the Reds have much to worry about with Leake. They don’t have to limit his pitch counts because he does a fine job of doing that himself. If he keeps throwing so few pitches, he should be fine through the season. If he does lose a little command or velocity, shut him down, but if he doesn’t let him keep pitching.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
i agree with you
to maintain consistency, you need to keep doing the same thing over and over. 12 days off is too many.
I'd rather be in charge of her pitch count than Leake's
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGbLrp14fNo&feature=related
My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.
Is this the woman who is pitching in indy-league ball?
The Chico Outlaws of the Golden League have an Asian woman on their roster.
I think this video is of a Korean pitcher, Sun Ye.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
actually I can
of course, their names give it away.
This is completely unsustainable, but man, is it fun while it lasts. -- BubbaFan
Nobody, nobody but you would want that.
This team wouldn't be so bad if it weren't for all the losing.
honestly
she has better stuff than DRH.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
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