With the 12th pick, Thundering Turtle selects ...
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 10:11 AM EDT
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Yes, as you’ve played Ed McMahon to Carnac the Magnificent long enough. The time has come to pull the envelope from Funkenwagnal’s hermetically sealed Mason jar and reveal Thundering Turtle’s long-awaited choice of who the Reds should pluck with the 12th overall selection in Monday’s MLB Draft.
Yes, I hear your eager gasps. I ask you to please hold your applause until the actual pick is announced. But first, in anticipation-building drama extraordinaire, might I note that the Reds and Turtles have agreed on the first pick three times since 2000: Homer Bailey in 2004, Yonder Alonso in 2008 and Mike Leake in 2009.
Through the oughts, the Turtles have outdueled the Reds from time to time: Jeff Francis over Chris Gruler in 2003 and Tim Lincecum over Drew Stubbs in 2006. At times, the Reds held the advantage: Jay Bruce over Lance Broadway in 2005 and Devin Mesoraco over Kevin Ahrens in 2007. Mostly, it’s roughly been a draw: David Espinosa-Corey Smith (2000), Jeremy Sowers-Dallas McPherson (2001), Ryan Wagner-Conor Jackson (2003).
And now I tear open the envelope and in honor of Madville, gently blow into it and remove the card to reveal the choice:
Alex Wimmers-RHP-The Ohio State University.
The choice wasn’t easy. Wimmers topped Kolbrin Vitek-2B/CF-Ball State and Bryce Brentz-OF-Middle Tennessee State, in that order. Vitek was tempting, especially since this draft is short on quality college hitters. Questions about Brentz’s ability to hit with wood and Vitek’s ultimate position were factors, although I’d be pleased with either player. I’d even be fairly pleased with speedy Cal State-Fullerton OF Gary Brown, whom I wish walked more often. Brown’s teammate Christian Colon can hit but I’m not convinced he can remain at SS, although he’d be a fine choice even if he ends up at 2B. I don’t want to see Georgia Tech pitcher Deck McGuire nor Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal. McGuire is fairly safe, but guys with straight fastballs don’t appeal much to me. Grandal doesn’t do anything well enough to be a factor for me, especially if his asking price is Borasesque.
In Wimmers the Reds get a Bronson Arroyo-type. Wimmers is the most-polished pitcher in the draft and could move quickly through the organization. Yes, I’d rather have a No. 2 starter in five years than a No. 5 starter in two years, but Wimmers can be more than a back-end pitcher and not many high school hurlers with top of the rotation potential will be available, especially at a reasonable cost, when the Reds pick.
Wimmers is durable, solid and projects at worst as a fourth starter. He has potential for more. That he has mastered a changeup and effectively throws three pitches are strong indications that Wimmers can remain a starter. His low-90s fastball has plenty of velocity and its sink is a good fit for GABP. His curve is rated plus and he throws everything for strikes. Not many pitchers in this draft feature three out pitches, but Wimmers does. Wimmers displays control and command. He is strong against right-handers and left-handers.
Wimmers (6-foot-2, 195 pounds) proved himself last summer in the Cape Cod League, an important showing for a Big Ten player. Signability isn’t an issue. He fields his position and even swings the bat well. Wimmers has strong makeup and no history of significant injuries. He is poised on the mound and pitches efficiently.
Wimmers appears to be a safe pick. Some scouts say his sum is greater than his parts, but pro coaching – and Wimmers is coachable – could turn that into a positive. Wimmers' track record is strong. He’s not some quick-rising Johnny come lately and he pitches well in big games. He no-hit Michigan and beat top-ranked Miami (Fla.) twice in his career.
This season Wimmers went 9-0 on a team that finished 28-23. In 73 innings, Wimmers struck out 86, walked 23 and allowed 58 hits. Foes batted just .211. That Wimmers is a Buckeye, a Cincinnati native and a Moeller HS graduate is a mere bonus.
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I also think when all things are almost equal
there is a wisdom in bringing in a home town guy. Chances are he probably wants to pitch for Cincinnati, and if he turns out well, when it comes time to extend his contract he may give the Reds a home town discount.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
"...and in honor of Madville, gently blow into it..."
This alone gets you a rec. But seriously, GREAT work on this Turtle. I’ve learned a ton about guys I never would have heard of otherwise.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
Great Job Turtle
As always. Like jch24 pointed out you have really educated all of us on the amateur prospects over the last few years. Well Done!!
"I don't challenge Murphy, even if he's 0 for 20. Not him, not ever." - Mario Soto
I went back and re-read the draft thread from last year
Turtle suggested that we could expect Mike Leake in the majors in three years, if we were being on the safe side. Turtle doesn’t know squat!
by Brendanukkah on Jun 4, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Tee hee!
He’ll be in the majors in three years!
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
great work.
i like the idea of wimmers a lot. good idea of how to pitch. i watched a couple of his games on the big ten network once people started talking about the draft. he looked good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BtsEs5RoKY
"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki
A little off topic here Chief Thundering Turtle ..but this guy says he knows you and that this series of Fanposts are sponsed by Dr. Green's...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5o5A0VGvnXg&feature=related
My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.
And a worthy sponsor he is.
One very fine product. Try some today!
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have been delighted with Conor Jackson over Ryan Wagner.
I guess Wagner did do a few Good Things at one point, but Jackson still has a chance to be a good player (if he can just get himself in the lineup!). So I’d give you the nod on that one too.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
If it weren't for Wagner
We’d have never experienced the joy of Royce Clayton at SS.
When you come to the fork in the road, take it.
I would have been delighted with McPherson over Sowers
Seeing as we knew Sowers had signability issues
by Highlifeman21 on Jun 6, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd for a mile
I agree, but your summary is fantastic. This isn’t the type of guy I’d be happy with at #12 in a lot of years, but with this year’s mediocre choices I think he’s a great pick.
The signability thing is key, and he by far has the fewest questions of any of the other choices. My only concern would be the walks this season.
Colon-what position will he play? Will he show any power with a wood bat?
Vitek-What position will he play?
Brentz-I like a lot, but he’s been inconsistent, and scouts are really divided on him.
McGuire-Will his offspeed stuff make up for lack of a good FB? He’s a late bloomer, and those always make me nervous.
Brown-I’d love to have the speed, but I really question his bat
Grandal-I don’t believe he’ll stick at catcher and I don’t trust his bat anywhere else
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Good questions.
You have a very good handle on this thing.
Colon could be a fine 2B. Vitek has a chance to stick in center, but no guarantees. Brentz cold be boom or bust. McGuire, I just prefer guys who pitch off their fastball. I can see him winding up in the pen. Brown could be Willy T all over again, but I think he’ll be better. Still, I hate to rely on a speed guy that high in the draft. Grandal just doesn’t impress me.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
And I guess if I had to choose a second option, I might go with Vitek. I would’ve said Brentz, but now I’m not sure.
And almost everyone thinks Vitek will hit, it’s just his position. But he’s probably got 2B, 3B, and CF to choose from, and since those are all valuable defensive positions, I might take the chance that he’d stick at one of them.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Do you think that the Rays' success with Zobrist
Might make teams value guys like Vitek (and Todd Frazier) more?
When you come to the fork in the road, take it.
Also, I'm not sure I'd go with the Bronson Arroyo comparison, for 2 reasons
1) Bronson never threw 90 with his fastball, and Wimmers sits 90-92 and can touch 94.
2) Bronson has 5 pitches he mixes. Wimmers could potentially add a cut fastball, but he just doesn’t have the variety Bronson has.
Also, not sure if it has been mentioned about him yet, but Baseball America considers his changeup the best in this year’s draft.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
The pitch of the islands!
Although I guess it would be King’s Island in his case.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 4, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Good points all.
I really like a pitcher who can throw an effective changeup, especially if he can break 90. It’s such a tremendous weapon and can make his fastball play up. Add in a very good curve and we might really have something here.
I think Wimmers gets knocked down a peg or so because he pitches in the Big Ten. That might be fair, although I think he’d have been very good in the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or PAC 10. His performances against Miami and in the Cape Cod League caught my attention.
Brentz is hard to get a handle on, too, for somewhat similar reasons. The Sun Belt isn’t a premier league, but it’s solid. Brentz performed well against Vanderbilt and some others. I’m really interested in following his career, whether with the Reds or another club.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on the changeup.
Some site recently (fangraphs, maybe?) had a good article about how the cut fastball was the current popular pitch, but the changeup is probably more effective and really underrated. I love that it can make the fastball play up, and it’s a great weapon against opposite handed hitters.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I read that, too!
The split-fingered fastball once was the rave, thanks to Bruce Sutter, then Roger Craig. That was a heck of a pitch. Mario Soto had the best change I’ve ever seen. Of course throwing it off 95 m.p.h. heat made it even better. He had batters spinning like ceiling fans.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
According to Pitch FX
Bronson Arroyo threw 90+ MPH 135 times in 2008, topping out at 92.5. Given that that was his age 31 season, I’d venture to guess that he used to hit 90 pretty regularly with his fastball back in the day.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
I'm going based on fangraphs, in which his average fastball never topped 89
I didn’t mean he never threw that fast, just that he’s never sat there with it like Wimmers does
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
yeah, but Bronson's been in the league for 10 years now
people change.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
According to fangraphs, his FB has never in his career averaged over 89 mph
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Jun 5, 2010 12:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what about the high school football star you see at your 10 year reunion
who is still the same guy he was 10 years ago, and still wants to be nothing more than the high school football star? He didn’t change a bit.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
Well, now he's in jail on statutory rape charges because 25-year olds can't go to high school and pretend they're 15.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Just a heads-up everyone. For those interested in this sort of thing
Defiance High School will be playing in the Div. II state semifinal today (as long as the rains stay away in Columbus) at 4 p.m. EST … perhaps later with some of these delays. The Bulldogs have a pitcher named Dace Kime (a pre-season all-American) who is one of the four best pitchers I’ve covered in my short career. Great fastball and a good curve. Also, and JCH this is for you — he’s signed with Louisville.
Future Red? Probably not. But a future prospect certainly.
Bored? Check out the live feed at:
http://radio.securenetsystems.net/radio_player_large.cfm?stationCallSign=RMEDIA
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jun 4, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions
You might need to give the player a little time to load.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jun 4, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
There are two kids in the town I'm currently in that are both going to the Ville, as well.
They’re in the high school class of 2011.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jun 4, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
All kidding aside
Louisville got really good at baseball. Not sure exactly when.
"i may be an idiot but i’m correct." -- 'tHan
It's within the last 15 years. Seriously, when I talk to HS players, Louisville
is always mentioned up there with Texas, ASU, the Cali teams and LSU as dream schools. Louisville is also really, really good at scouting and they host a TON of high school all-star tournaments for summer ball. A lot of kids in the Midwest, their first time playing in a big tournament (like Kime) is at Louisville. They have something really good going there. And high school kids are paying attention.
Also — the Cards coach may be one of the top 5 in the country.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jun 4, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I liked Brentz, but it sounds like the Reds aren't really looking at him.
I’d definitely be okay with Wimmers. Vitek would be interesting too, but most of that is because my parents went to Ball St…
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Looking like the Padres are taking either Michael Choice or Vitek with the #9 pick
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
If they hadn't gone to Ball St., you wouldn't be here today.
Bazinga.
Go, Reds! They're my favorite team!
Fanhouse reports KC has agreed to a deal
with Grandal at No. 4. That’s a huge overdraft.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2010 9:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
thank God
one less mistake the Reds can make.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 4, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Truth. Leave it to KC to take a guy 8-12 spots too high and likely way overpay him as well
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Jun 5, 2010 12:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ugh. Don't like it at all.
Drafting a Big Ten pitcher is like drafting a MAC Quarterback. You better be sure. Wimmers doesn’t have much upside beyond #3 starter, and his level of competition alone makes him far from a sure thing. Who’s the last Big Ten pitcher to be anything better than a replacement-level starter? Mark Mulder? Hell, the best active MLB starter to come out of a Big Ten school played only one season at that school, and only did that because he was beaten out for the starting Quarterback job on the football team.
I’d take Grandal 100 times out of 100 over Wimmers. There, you have production over the best competition in the country, plus the premium defensive position. I’d prefer Bentz, Allie, Colon, Cox, Whitson, and maybe a few other guys over Wimmers, too.
"Bitch slap your goldfish folks, we're all screwed."
-KevinMitchellisBatman
Grandal is a huge no, for a number of reasons
His bat is solid, but the power is very questionable. Also, there are huge questions whether he’ll stick at catcher. His arm kinda sucks, and his receiving abilities are average at best.
Plus, he wants “Buster Posey” money (6.2 mil bonus).
DO. NOT. WANT.
(I’ll also remind you that Mike Leake was supposed to have a ceiling as a #3 starter too)
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Wimmers is no Leake.
I have serious concerns over Wimmers’ delivery. Considering it takes max. effort to get low-90s heat from the delivery, I’d much rather go with an arm like Whitson or Paxton who can hit mid-90s heat with ease.
Projectability is key, and I just don’t see much benefit from selecting Wimmers, when a savvy a 2nd or 3rd round selection (think LeCure, Klinker, or Wood) can get you just as much upside.
by wanderinredsfan on Jun 5, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting points.
I like it that so many people are here are more into the draft and prospects than they were just two years ago. Kudos to all of you.
I fully believe the level of competition only factors in so far. The Big Ten hasn’t produced many MLB shortstops, either, but Barry Larkin was worth taking. No, WImmers isn’t to pitching what Larkin was to shortstops, but look at the individual. The Big Ten produced a first round pitcher in 2004 (Glen Perkins of Minnesota) and 2009 (Eric Arnett of Indiana).
Wimmers would be a top of the rotation starter in the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or PAC 10. Wimmers’ performance in the Cape Cod League was very impressive. It doesn’t guarantee anything, of course. Michigan pitchers Jim Brauer and Derek Feldkamp were summer league stars, too, and neither panned out. WImmers has more ability than either of those, though. A No. 3 MLB starter is a valuable commodity.
I’m not saying you’re not right about upside. I love a GM who will take some risks on upside, without being stupid. The Reds, though, are likely to stick to slot, or pretty close. I’m not sure the better high school pitchers will sign for that.
As for MAC QBs, let’s hope the Reds get a guy with Chad Pennington’s brains and character, Byron Leftwich’s arm and Ben Roethlisberger’s on-field success rate.
As you know, I’m not a Grandal fan for a number of reasons. What are your thoughts on Vitek?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 5, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Sidebar on the right, Fanhouse is projecting Reds to take Deck McGuire now
This is mainly down to the Royals taking Grandal and, as a result, better pitchers being available later.
I’ve spent some time reading more about McGuire, and I would take him. He’s huge, his FB has sharp downhill plane, and apparently his slider and curve are potential plus pitches. One scout said the game he saw the slider was the best offspeed pitch he’s seen in college this year. The curve is apparently less consistent but also has the potential to be a plus pitch. His changeup is decent and could be a solid 4th pitch.
Reports are conflicting on his command, and if he can’t command his FB he struggles, but with 4 solid pitches, a durable frame (one scout compared him to Aaron Harang body-wise) and decent command, he projects as a durable innings eater. Maybe not an ace, but every report I read considered him a very safe investment.
Also, coming out of Georgia Tech, his competition level was high. I’ve changed my mind and I’d be OK with him. (Or Vitek or Wimmers)
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I'd be much more of a McGuire fan is his fastball weren't so straight.
Maybe pro coaching will help that, or maybe someone can teach him a cutter. Big league hitters can catch up to velocity. It’s movement that makes the fastball more effective. Of course, some guys have so much movement that they can’t command the pitch, so that’s no good either.
You just know the Reds are going to take Brown or Colon and make all this moot. Sure is fun to discuss, though. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the input from all of you. It’s a fun time of year for me.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 6, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
he'll be available
there are 4 premium prep arms and a few collegiate arms ranked above him.
things will be interesting if Karsten Whitson or Deck McQuire is available at #12. Heck, Drew Pomeranz just might be available also.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
WIMMMERS WIMMERS WIMMERS
I love this pick, you’ve got to bring in the marketing factor here. Being an OSU product, this is a chance for the Reds to steal some of the OSU/Indians fans
You should follow me on twitter @DavefrmLville....the Onion does!
by Dave from Louisville on Jun 5, 2010 10:02 PM EDT reply actions
and being a Moller product you gotta like it too
plus as I said somewhere, maybe even up thread, if Wimmers does pan out and becomes at least a #3 pitcher, it may be easier for the Reds to give an affordable extension to a Cincinnati guy.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 5, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
you may saw Turtles vs. Reds is a draw
But I much rather have Francis and Lincecum than Bruce and Mesoraco
"Live every week like it's shark week. And dress everyday like you're gonna get murdered in those clothes." - Tracey Jordan
by RedinWrigleyville on Jun 6, 2010 8:13 PM EDT reply actions
I think you're missing a ewe.
Go, Reds! They're my favorite team!
by PeteyHendrix on Jun 7, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Zack Cox anyone?
Word is that the Arkansas 3B/2B is slipping because of Pedro Alvarez-like bonus demands. While it’s unlikely the Reds would do it, would you give $5 million and a MLB contract to Cox, a premier college hitter who has extra leverage because he’s a draft eligible sophomore.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 6, 2010 9:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
how much better is he than Vitek or Brentz?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 6, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Much. Most consider him the best pure hitter in the draft.
Plus, he’s only a sophomore so there’s more projection there. He hit .432/.516/.606 (again, as a sophomore) this year. He’s got a strong arm at 3B, and his range should be ok, but he has a bit of defensive work to do.
Some questions about his power with wood, but he’s 6’0", 215lbs, so he should be able to hit for at least average power.
Excellent plate recognition (33 BB, 29K this year) and absolutely crushes the ball to the opposite field.
If he’s available, I go for it. Although with Chapman, I’m not sure the Reds will be willing to go way over slot for him.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Agreed.
Cox is a potential difference maker with the bat. He can play 3B or 2B. If he’s there at No. 12, I make sure No. 13 doesn’t get a shot at him.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 6, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
good to know
hopefully Banana Bob opens up his old man purse.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 6, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
That'll be tough
Word is he wants an MLB contract worth $4-6 million. After the Chapman signing I’m not sure the money is there, but even if it is, who gets removed from the 40 man to make room for him? And do you really want 2 prospects taking up 40 man spots?
Still, I’d love to see it happen.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
make that 3 prospects
with Alsono, Chapman, and this guy.
"Every day we expect to win and here lately we've been doing that."-Homer Bailey
by justin007000 on Jun 7, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Valiquette or Corky are possibilities.
Of course, the Cox contract wouldn’t get done until mid-August anyway, so there’s time for someone to play himself off the 40-man roster.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 7, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey TT
I’m assuming that you’ll be running some draft day threads today, like you have in the past. Good assumption?
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
Will do, Slyde.
Looking forward to it. Wednesday will get a little hairy, as I have to attend a function honoring Mrs. Turtle for achieving national board certification as a teacher, but I can play catch-up for those picks.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 7, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
That's cool
I’m sure one of the nerds around here will cover it. Since the game is running concurrent to the draft tonight, we’ll just keep draft stuff in the FanPosts, but I’ll will bump it to the front page so that it ends up in the main newsfeed for the site. Sound good?
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
Sounds like a winner.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Jun 7, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Do NOT like Keith Law's latest insider post...
…linking the Reds with Chance Ruffin. I would hope to god that is not at #12 overall…
When not lurking here, the sportsfrog is where I am.
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