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Walt Jocketty's draft history: The first round.

As the draft approaches, what might we expect from the Reds in the first round? Cincinnati has the 12th overall selection, with Ohio State RHP Alex Wimmers the trendy choice at the moment. Will Cal State-Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon sneak in there, or maybe Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal, Middle Tennessee State outfielder Bryce Bentz or another eager, young would-be Mike Leake.

Looking at Walt Jocketty’s draft history, a betting man might go with Wimmers. Seven times in his 15 drafts, Jocketty has selected a college RHP with his first selection. Three times he has taken an outfielder. Twice he has drafted a shortstop. With his other picks, he has taken a second baseman, a catcher and a first baseman.

While the scouting director has great input and near total control through most of the draft, the top choice is on the GM. Jocketty appears to prefer college talent, taking a high schooler just five times. Of those five, two – Daric Barton and Colby Rasmus – have reached the majors. Six of Jocketty’s 10 college picks have reached the big leagues.

Jocketty started off like Billy Hatcher in the 1990 World Series:

1995: Matt Morris-RHP-Seton Hall. Morris went 121-92 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 big league seasons before hanging it up in 2008.

1996: Braden Looper-RHP-Wichita State. Looper went 72-65 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 big league seasons through 2009.

1997: Adam Kennedy-2B-Cal State-Northridge. In 12 MLB seasons, Kennedy has 70 home runs, 500 RBI and a slash line of .276/.330/.390, with 163 stolen bases while wielding a strong glove.

1998: J.D. Drew-OF-Florida State. Though oft-injured, Drew has a solid 222 homers, 735 RBI and a line of .283/.391/.502 through 13 MLB seasons.

From there, Jocketty turned into Nick Esasky, following an incredible hot streak with a baffling slump:

1999: Chance Caple-RHP-Texas A&M. Injuries limited Caple to just 287 minor league innings, none above High-A. He was out of baseball by 2004.

2000: Shaun Boyd-OF-Vista HS. In 2006 reached AAA, where he batted a miserable .188 before going off to indy ball.

2001: Justin Pope-RHP-Central Florida. Dealt to the Yankees with Ben Julianel for Sterling Hitchcock in 2003, Pope never made it past AAA before hanging it up after the 2008 season.

2002: Cal Hayes-SS-East Rowan HS. In fairness, the Cardinals didn’t have a pick until the third round. Hayes flamed out in High-A ball in 2006.

Jocketty then made a comeback that would have made Gary Nolan proud:

2003: Daric Barton-C-Marina HS. A key component in the Mark Mulder trade, Barton has yet to live up to his first round billing, posting a three-year line of 18-96-.255/.357/.396 in 843 at bats with Oakland, but still is just 24.

2004: Chris Lambert-RHP-Boston College. Lambert has logged 14 MLB innings with the Tigers and Orioles the last two seasons.

2005: Colby Rasmus-CF-Russell County HS. Rasmus is playing solid ball as a starter with the Cardinals, posting a line of 23-71-.253/.325/.430 in 612 at bats over two seasons.

2006: Adam Ottavino-RHP-Northeastern. Ottavino has scuffled his way to AAA, where he’s 4-3 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP as a starter in 2010.

2007: Pete Kozma-SS-Owasso HS. Kozma, 21, and has reached AA, where in two seasons he’s put up a line of 12-63 .229/.297/.349.

Jocketty then pulled a Dmitri Young, prospering after coming to the Reds from the Cardinals:

2008: Yonder Alonso-1B-Miami. Alonso has a 13-75-.284/.373/.436 line in three seasons and has reached AAA.

2009: Mike Leake-RHP-Arizona State. A 4-0 record with a 2.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP less than one year out of college? Yep, we’ll take that.

So what have we learned?

Jocketty isn’t afraid of taking a cold-weather pitcher (Morris, Lambert, Ottavino), so maybe that bodes well for Wimmers. Jocketty doesn’t particularly favor California over Florida and he drafts from the South, West, Southwest and Northeast pretty much equally.

Jocketty rarely misses when selecting 12th or higher, snagging Morris, Looper, Drew, Hayes, Alonso and Leake in that range. Boyd, however, was a 13th pick. Jocketty hasn’t rolled the dice on a LHP nor a 3B with his top pick. Four position players – Kennedy, Drew, Barton and Rasmus – made the big leagues, as did four pitchers – Morris, Looper, Lambert and Leake. Ottavino and Alonso likely will make MLB appearances this season.

When drafting in the top 12, Jocketty has gone with a college player all five times, with three being pitchers. That and other factors might point to Wimmers as the target for 2010.