Mike Leake and his workload
by dougdirt on May 26, 2010 1:45 PM EDT
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PrintBaseball tends to have a rule, the Verducci Rule as some call it, that a young pitcher doesn't exceed 30 innings pitched in a season over his previous career high. Mike Leake threw 142 innings last season for Arizona State, then took 5 months off before going to the AFL, so I can't really add those innings in like I have seen some others do. That ideally would put Leake on pace for 170 innings or so before you would like to 'shut it down' if you abide by the +30 rule.
This all got me thinking though, as Mike Leake isn't your typical 'young pitcher'. He is averaging less than 15 pitches per inning, routinely getting through 6 innings in 90 or fewer pitches. So I decided to look at all pitchers with 1 inning in either direction of Leake (between 59-61 IP this season) and how many pitches they would throw if they kept their current pace so far and threw 200 innings this season.
After the jump is the list, sorted by most pitches on pace to throw for 200 innings:
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | If he threw 200ip |
| Clayton Kershaw | 59.33 | 1052 | 3546 |
| Joe Saunders | 59.33 | 1000 | 3371 |
| Jon Garland | 60 | 1006 | 3353 |
| Paul Maholm | 61 | 990 | 3246 |
| John Danks | 60.67 | 978 | 3224 |
| Matt Cain | 59.33 | 956 | 3223 |
| Brett Meyers | 61 | 968 | 3174 |
| David Price | 59.67 | 943 | 3161 |
| Roy Oswalt | 61 | 950 | 3115 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 59.33 | 918 | 3095 |
| Barry Zito | 61 | 927 | 3039 |
| Scott Baker | 60.33 | 909 | 3013 |
| Mitch Talbot | 60.33 | 892 | 2957 |
| Mike Leake | 60 | 887 | 2957 |
| Hirokia Kuroda | 59.33 | 877 | 2956 |
| Mark Buehrle | 59.33 | 877 | 2956 |
| Livan Hernandez | 60.67 | 895 | 2950 |
| Tim Hudson | 60.33 | 865 | 2868 |
Now looking solely at the extreme of things, I ran the difference between Mike Leake and the Dodgers stud Clayton Kershaw over pitches thrown. If Mike Leake were given the 3546 pitches that Kershaw is on pace for over 200 innings, Mike Leake would throw an additional 40 innings in the exact same amount of pitches. Likewise, if we gave Kershaw the 2957 pitches that Leake would be on pace for over 200 innings, Kershaw would only throw 166.2 innings.
So while Leake is on pace for a lot of innings, I don't quite think that the +30 rule quite applies to him like it may for others who aren't quite as efficient with their pitches. I don't want to see Leake throw 225 innings this year by any means, but simply using an innings limit on Leake based on the +30 seems a little short sighted given how large of a difference we can get by simply being pitch efficient compared to some other young pitchers.
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I still would err on the side of caution with Leake.
Just because he’s awesome and I’d be sad if he got hurt due to overuse.
Let's hope
Leake is in touch with people who can not only manage his mechanics but teach him how to recover from a game. This is a science now and for this kid, a lot of career is at stake.
I think it’s unfair to ask anybody in the dugout or even the front office to understand the mechanics of an arm, a shoulder or an elbow. That’s up to a lot of smart people and IMHO, it’s up to Leake to make sure HE understands that.
Now I also realize that he can’t go around getting 23 opinions and having them all collide on the day he’s penciled in to pitch. In that respect, the people in the dugout and the front office ALSO have to be in on the gag.
Sadly, I still see baseball as operating under the same rules it always has: We found this kid and we can find another one after he’s gone.
If the Cards were a Fortune 500 company, they'd be on their way to hostile takeover. -- RedHot Mama
Let me also toss in
… he doesn’t seem to pitch from the stretch very often, as compared to some other guys on the Reds staff. I guess maybe the people who do the counting here might factor in the difference between a windup and a stretch, or maybe a slide step.
If the Cards were a Fortune 500 company, they'd be on their way to hostile takeover. -- RedHot Mama
I think that perhaps a "muscle tightness" DL trip should be in Leake's future.
If we make it, we need this kid to be hurling for us in the postseason.
No amount of prosperity is sufficient to eliminate all misfortune, and sloth is impervious to opportunity.
but that would mean (gasp!)
still another long list of posts by bloggers about how Dusty ruined still another young arm.
How on EARTH can the man endure that?
If the Cards were a Fortune 500 company, they'd be on their way to hostile takeover. -- RedHot Mama
People will cool down on him if we can get the Central this year.
No amount of prosperity is sufficient to eliminate all misfortune, and sloth is impervious to opportunity.
The '03 Cubs respectfully disagree
Now pitching, Francisco Cor-deritgoes!!!
www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com
cool post.
nice work.
"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki
Verducci effect has yet to receive any kind of decent empirical backing
That said, I agree with exercising caution with Leake. But I also agree that the issue is more an issue of pitches (and ideally types of pitches, with extra weighting for more stressful pitching and situations) than the number of outs he gets (which is essentially what innings measures).
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
I was actually thinking about this earlier this morning!
I think that the fact that he is not a maximum effort pitcher helps his recovery time.
My thought is that he should probably have 2-3 starts skipped at some point this year. Or, around some off days, leave the other pitchers on their normal rest, and give Leake the extra day.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
Also helps that he hasn't been trying to pitch out of a lot of jams
those sorts of innings tend to be more stressful on the pitcher’s arm.
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So wouldn't the 142 IP last year
Have been achieved with fewer pitches than most would have required? That seems to be the kind of pitcher that he is. So if we’re concerned about the increase year-to-year, this shouldn’t make any difference.
When you come to the fork in the road, take it.
Leake and Arizona State
I don’t have pitch counts for all games, but there were some games where he was throwing 110+ pitches last year. The defense and aluminum bat make a difference.
Homer Bailey
Verducci did predict Homer as a high risk pitcher based on his September workload last year, and while everyone says its not major he is on the DL.
Just throwing that out there
by Tony Cornell Big Red on May 26, 2010 5:47 PM EDT reply actions
I think they should let it fly with Leake.
I was laughing earlier today that the Nationals are going to delay Strasburg’s major league debut in order to keep him under the 100 IP mark for the year. Isn’t he still pitching while in AAA? I realize they can shorten his outings in the minors more easily, but by how much? Does it really hurt the major league team to have a guy throw 5 shutout innings and then leave the game? It’s a stupid inning cap and a stupid decision to hold him in the minors longer to avoid reaching it.
by Brian B on May 26, 2010 5:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Leake is fine and will be fine...fucxking A...the guy a pitcher not a thrower
My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.
Strasburg
Is being held down for contractual reasons, plain and simple. It has nothing at all to do with holding down his innings and everything to do with keeping him for that extra season.
Then why the fuss about bringing him up in the middle of June instead of the end of May?
They shouldn’t be worried about super 2 anymore. I thought it was because they had a deal where they won’t make him throw more than 100 innings in the majors.
by Brian B on May 27, 2010 8:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No clue
But I seriously doubt any player would be agreeing to some sort of ‘deal’ that minimizes his MLB time.
Probably going to make his Nats debut when the Pirates come to town
b/c nothing says guaranteed 1st MLB win like facing the Bucs
by Highlifeman21 on May 31, 2010 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Pitchers these days are pussies.
Bob Gibson pitched 8 years of 250+ innings, 2 of them 300+
Watch it, ass blood.
If Gibson
had been brought up in todays game, he wouldn’t be throwing those innings totals. There are multiple reasons why and none of them have to do with him being more of a man than guys today.
Oh yeah ,,,I remember Gibson and nobody...fucked with him
Especially the manager..BG stayed in when he wanted to and he was a real ‘pitcher’ and not a hard throwing idiot.
My name is Madville and I'm a JonnyGomesLaynceNixaddict.
Part of Gibson's success
was the higher mound and that’s been discussed for lots of reasons. His 1968 numbers are awesome. Comparing him and his contemporaries to today’s pitchers is technically unfair but is pretty much unavoidable.
If the Cards were a Fortune 500 company, they'd be on their way to hostile takeover. -- RedHot Mama
You leave out Old Hoss Radbourne
If the Cards were a Fortune 500 company, they'd be on their way to hostile takeover. -- RedHot Mama
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