Just for Fun: Could this be 1962 all over again?

This post is strictly intended to stoke your imagination. It is my belief that we should fully enjoy first place, and any relevant games, while they last. This season could go in the tank, or it could be a memorable one. The likelihood is that this is probably at best an 85-win team, but what fun is dreaming if you don't dream big every once in a while! Hope springs eternal!

So, just for fun, I was looking for similar teams to this current crop of Reds based on their pythagorean record and their actual record, just to see if there are any indicators for the future. When perusing the list of similar teams, I came across the 1962 Reds, who were 21-16 after 37 games, and who had scored 173 runs while allowing 183 to score (the current Reds are 177 and 178 respectively) and who went on to win 98 games, though they still only managed a 3rd place finish in the National League.

Similar to this year's team, the '62 squad started out slow. They were just 7-11 after dropping the first game of a double-header on 4/29, bu then went 14-5 over their next 19 games. Sound familiar?

Their paths to 21-16 aren't exactly the same, but they're pretty close. Here are a couple of graphs to show you how similar they are:

After the jump, we'll take a look at the individual players and imagine what it would take for these Reds to win 98 games!

 

Unfortunately, nobody is having a start of the season quite like Vada Pinson had in 1962. Over his first 37 games, he batted .336/.372/.671 with 12 HR and 36 RBI. The current Reds don't have a player with over 100 PA who is batting over .300. Also on the downside of this comparison is the fact that it is unlikely anyone will hit like Frank Robinson did after 37 games into the season. Robby batted .369/.443/.686 with 39 doubles and 36 HR in the final 125 games of the season. I don't see anyone on this current squad coming close to that.

1962				2010
	First 37 Games		Season	First 37 Games
Player	PA	wOBA	wOBA	Player	PA	wOBA
Vada Pinson	164	.427	.345	Ryan Hanigan	69	.423
Wally Post	132	.382	.355	Joey Votto	160	.388
Don Blasingame	90	.348	.316	Ramon Hernandez	84	.369
Gordy Coleman	145	.340	.345	Scott Rolen	133	.358
Johnny Edwards	124	.331	.302	Jay Bruce	146	.355
Frank Robinson	161	.316	.425	Jonny Gomes	112	.335
Leo Cardenas	137	.299	.322	Brandon Phillips	161	.331
Eddie Casko	154	.283	.304	Orlando Cabrera	150	.293
Cookie Rojas	64	.256	.250	Drew Stubbs	139	.284

Offensively, I think this year's squad can come close to the 1962 team, but it's unlikely they'll reach the 802 runs scored that that team put up. Right now, I'd say this team is likely a 760-780 run offense, which is about 4.7-4.8 runs per game. This is higher than what I would have predicted earlier in the season mainly because I've become a believer that Jay Bruce is breaking out this year. Perhaps that's a little premature on my part, but I don't care. This post is all about the optimism!

1962					2010
	First 37 Games		Season		First 37 Games
Pitcher	IP	FIP	IP	FIP	Pitcher	IP	FIP
Bob Purkey	79	3.65	288.1	3.87	Bronson Arroyo	52.2	4.61
Joey Jay	73	3.81	273	4.00	Mike Leake	46.2	4.18
Jim O'Toole	65.1	4.05	251.2	3.54	Aaron Harang	46.1	4.86
Jim Maloney	--	--	115.1	3.92	Johnny Cueto	42	3.93
Johnny Klippstein	11	4.90	108.2	4.87	Homer Bailey	41.1	4.78
Moe Drabowsky	26	6.27	83	4.83	Francisco Cordero	19.1	4.35
Joe Nuxhall	--	--	66	3.01	Nick Masset	18	3.54
Jim Brosnan	15	3.88	64.2	3.04	Micah Owings	16.1	3.26
Ted Wills	5	5.21	61	4.84	Arthur Rhodes	15	2.93
Dave Sisler	9	6.92	43.2	4.34	Mike Lincoln	13	4.72
Bill Henry	8.2	3.62	37.1	3.96	Danny Herrera	10.1	2.58
Sammy Ellis	16.2	6.95	28	6.88	Logan Ondrusek	8	7.39
Bob Miller	5.1	6.56	5.1	6.56	Carlos Fisher	4.1	4.88

Where the current squad will really need to pick up their game is on the pitching staff. It's hard to compare these two eras because bullpen usage has changed so dramatically, but the 1962 starting staff was much better than what we have seen from the 2010 squad. The present version has shown signs of improvement, and I think we can be optimistic, but it is still unlikely we'll see three pitchers like Purkey, Jay, and O'Toole, all of whom pitched over 250 innings with an ERA under 3.80.

Anyway, remember, this is all just for fun. The 2010 Reds aren't going to win 98 games. I don't expect anybody to believe that, but it's still fun to imagine the possibilities. We'll get back to baseball reality tonight. But for the rest of the afternoon, feel free to daydream about the possibilities!

Poll

What do you think is the max number of wins this team can put up this year?

11%

96+

93 votes

28%

91-95

232 votes

44%

86-90

359 votes

12%

81-85

100 votes

1%

76-80

16 votes

1%

75 or less

10 votes

810 votes | Poll has closed