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The Reds Might Be the Best Base Running Team in the League

Taking that extra base is just another thing that Joey Votto is awesome at.

The Reds have had some issues on the base paths this year, that's for sure. They have been picked off more than any other team in the league. Last year's stolen base leader, Brandon Phillips, is just 3 of 7 on stolen base attempts this year. And there are a couple of instances where mistakes on the bases have really ruined an inning.

But I'm here to tell you, this is actually a very good base running team. You may not believe me, which is why I've brought a chart to back me up:

Base_advancing_20100513_medium

You may not have noticed this, but the Reds run the bases on hits better than any team in the National League. They've taken an extra base (XBT%) 53% of the time this year, a full 8% better than the next closest team. They lead the league in going first-to-third and second-to-home on a single, and they are third in the league in going first-to-home on double. Probably most importantly, they've only made 10 outs while trying to advance an extra base, the third lowest rate in the NL.

They are not without their problems though. Their stolen base rate is a barely acceptable 68%, which is 3% lower than the league average, and overall, they've made 26 outs on the bases (not including GIDP and force outs), which puts them at right about the league average rate. This is mainly because they have not been effective stealing, and they get picked off far too often.

Individually, the best base runner so far has been Jay Bruce, who has taken the extra base on 14 of the 18 chances (78%) he's had and he has made just one out while trying to advance. Joey Votto is second with a 67% advance rate, though he has made 2 outs on the bases. Brandon Phillips has only advanced 50% of the time, but he also leads the team with 6 bases taken on things like fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and defensive indifference. And the good news is that while BP has had some trouble with the steals, he has not made an out on the bases otherwise. On the bad side of the ledger is Ramon Hernandez with just a 22% advance rate and a team leading 3 outs made while advancing. Slow catchers are slow.

I don't know about you, but I was actually kind of excited to see this data. This is partly because it reminds me a lot of the 1990 squad, which was a very good base running team and was successful because they kept taking it to teams, never letting their foot off the gas. I think aggressive base running, if successful, is a way the Reds can overcome some of their offensive deficiencies. Sure we'd all prefer they add another quality bat to the lineup, but until then, if they can keep doing the right things on the bases, it will help make the few base runners they have more valuable.

Data provided by Baseball-Reference.com.

Comment 69 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Agree'd

Is this one of those cases where you follow one team and the stupid things that they do seem to stand out and make you wonder why our team does this and others don’t? Is this why marriage is so hard?

When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

by poojols on May 13, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

HAVOC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wake up in the clubhouse feeling like Ken Griffey.

www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com

by chazerize on May 13, 2010 10:41 AM EDT reply actions  

It's been fun to watch

Much moreso than the TTO ball of the mid-aughts. And it really has been a team effort. Stubbs has been great, but as you point out it’s been a lot more than him. Gotta credit Dusty.

by ken on May 13, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree

and to give Dusty credit (shudder….) they are 12-4 since his close door meeting after the lackluster Saturday game against SD.

Wake up in the clubhouse feeling like Ken Griffey.

www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com

by chazerize on May 13, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Someone alert Lance McCallister

Brandon Phillips is apparently non-hustling his way tot he team lead in a base-running category! He must do it at a jog

by timb116 on May 13, 2010 11:00 AM EDT reply actions  

McCallister is gonna be PISSED!

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 13, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

as far as I can tell

the Reds have made 2 outs at home on hits in 54 chances. So, none of the credit goes to Berry. :)

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on May 13, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

and Gomes was safe on Monday

so it should just be one

Wake up in the clubhouse feeling like Ken Griffey.

www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com

by chazerize on May 13, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

holy crap that sig is awesome...

"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki

by GrooveLeg on May 13, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

why thanks

I strive for your approval :-)

Wake up in the clubhouse feeling like Ken Griffey.

www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com

by chazerize on May 13, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

well, you were lacking for a while.

this redeems you…. a little…

"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki

by GrooveLeg on May 13, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oooh... that IS good.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 13, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I am a natural conspiracy theorist...

And I would like to advance the theory that Brian B is attending games disguised as Mark Berry.

What, me? Being negative? No. Never.

by Paul Householder on May 13, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm really glad you posted this, because it makes this team make a lot more sense

For example the team is 5th in the NL in runs, but they are

12th in OBP
8th in SLG (who knew we’d have league average power?!?)
9th in wOBA

So how could an offense that is average or below average in the major offensive categories be in the top 3rd in runs scored? I thought it might be errors by the opposing team, but this makes much more sense.

I agree that this is exciting data, because this is the kind of thing that can be sustained and can make the offensive numbers play up all year.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions  

yeah I have been impressed

with how many 1st to third and first to home plays there have been. For example, on Monday, Votto scored from first on a Rolen double. I was pretty impressed by that since Votto is not the fastest guy in the world, though he is a good base runner. It forces outfielders to make plays. That kind of pressure is sustainable.

by Red_Poodle on May 13, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

if stubbs is on first, i expect him to end up on third on every hit that reaches the outfield.

if it’s an extra base hit, he’s going to score from any base.

"Now onto more important things: Punching Errorlando Cabrerror in the fucking tits." -Geki

by GrooveLeg on May 13, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is nice to see

It kind of supports the mental image I have of this team, getting a lot of doubles into the corner, having guys turn it on around second base and score from first base while some befuddled outfielder is chasing the ball around.

I don’t do numbers much but are we anywhere near the league lead in doubles?

Opportunity is something that needs to be recognized. Of all the Reds, I’d say Gomes is setting some standards there. If we can get BP to stop wrecking rallies, we might actually contend.

Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden just pitched a perfect game against the Rays.

by johnu1 on May 13, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

We're 12th in the NL in doubles

but actually 5th in both triples and homers.

And I’d argue Gomes is one of the liabilities on this team right now. Everyone knows his defense is bad, but he’s been pretty bad at the plate too. (.290 OBP because he’s not walking hardly at all)

I say keep running Gomes out against lefties, but put Heisey in a platoon with him and let Heisey hit the righties. He’ll do as well or better than Gomes while playing much better defense. This would also help the baserunning situation because Heisey is a very good baserunner.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree a bit on Gomes

Data doesn’t support him much but I like his enthusiasm, which was my only point about opportunism. He seems to have spurred some enthusiasm, or at least it seems that way.

Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden just pitched a perfect game against the Rays.

by johnu1 on May 13, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I totally agree

but he could also spur that enthusiasm from the dugout :-)

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

no.

Gomes brings a fierce confidence and energy to the team.
He’s doing just fine
and as Chuck adamantly points out WHAT ABOUT LAYNCE NIX!!!1???

The 2010 Reds – "It could have been a lot worse"
by RedsMasochist on May 4, 2010 8:47 PM EDT

by Madville on May 13, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Plus, he's totally BA.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 13, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

It is a fair question

If you have to ask who is Laynce Nix, it’s too late to get a reasonable answer.

Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden just pitched a perfect game against the Rays.

by johnu1 on May 13, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Again, he can bring that confidence and energy from the dugout

Right now he’s a liability

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's batting .423/.444/.654 over his last 7 games

There is something to be said for not totally shutting down a player because he is struggling in a small sample, especially if that player has some history of success.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on May 13, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

agreed, but I'm concerned with his K and walk rates

Even in this good run of seven games, he’s only walked once and struck out 7 times. And I’m not saying bench him completely, just against righties, which I thought was the plan all along.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's early

His walk rate is short his career average by 5 walks. Give it time and it will come back up.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on May 13, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

sure, it's all small sample size

I guess I’m just saying that we have a pretty large sample size (1250 PAs) that suggest he’s not that great against righties, and another pretty large sample (almost 1800 innings) that suggest he’s not a very good outfielder either.

If he was lighting up the league so far, I’d say give him a shot to play everyday. Since he’s not, there’s no reason Heisey shouldn’t be getting starts in LF against righties.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

or lefties

Heisey is the only one of these three with a legit future as an everyday OF. Dusty’s job is on the line so he wont take such a chance, but it’s the best thing for the team.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 13, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you mean Gomes, Heisey, Nix, I completely agree

but the fact is, Gomes is on the team, and he’s making 800K, so he’s going to start some, and I’m fine with that. (not Nix though, he should never start)

I’d be fine with Heisey getting 3-4 starts a week in LF and 1 a week in CF to spell Stubbs. And in addition to being the best for him and for the team long term, I really think he’d help the team win as much or more than Gomes does/will.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ummm ....

I don’t think cheerleaders ever made a team better.
But if the tradeoff is defense, then this discussion about taking the extra base is the wrong topic.
What I see Gomes doing is scoring from first base on a play that should have been, at best, him stopping at third, or at worst, being nailed at the plate.
I think that energy has made this team much more competitive.

Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden just pitched a perfect game against the Rays.

by johnu1 on May 13, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, Gomes ain't no cheerleader

I’m talkin’ about a guy who can hit the ball real hard, who plays real hard, who has a big time ‘tude, who is (by all accounts) a tremendous teammate, who is funny as hell but doesn’t fuck around when it is time to do business. The (sometimes) prevalent attitude (here at RR) that non-quantifiable factors(like leadership/energy) don’t mean anything is just plain wrong. Anyone who’s played ball, coached a team or worked in highly competitive situations knows that some guys or gals) are just plain fighters, dare I say (in their best context) winners. Gomes and Nix are hard bitten, old school players who are contributing very nicely to the teams recent surge. What the hell else can you ask for…Hi-Z ? I am a fan of Heisy but if I were Dustbrains I sure wouldn’t bet on him to suddenly mature into a force on this team after a couple of games. The only guy on this team who mystifies me is Cairo…everyone else has a role, a job and right now most of the guys are doing their jobs pretty well. and as far a ‘team’ goes..this one seems to be right on track.
The future in professional baseball, esp. the Reds is now. Right now…its not Frazier or Heisey or Travis Wood. hell this team right now is competing…got a shot at 1st place…

The 2010 Reds – "It could have been a lot worse"
by RedsMasochist on May 4, 2010 8:47 PM EDT

by Madville on May 13, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

A 900 team OPS with RISP, 2 outs helps

835 OPS overall with RISP. Team OPS is 741.

by ken on May 13, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Clutch-Team-Redies

"I never should have given up the animation rights."

by BobbyO on May 13, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

True, but I'm trying to be positive, and since the baserunning is probably more sustainable than OPS with RISP

I’ll choose to focus on baserunning, thank you!

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

As an outspoken opponent of this team's competency in the base-stealing department,

I have noticed the first to third thing quite a few times. I admire the aggression and awareness it takes to make that play happen. My problem, as always, is with straight steals and hit-n-runs. To Dusty’s credit, I haven’t seen many of the latter but the former is painful to watch with this team- success rates be damned.

A Pete Rose by any other name would still smell of cheap hookers and pinetar.

by Pops Daniels on May 13, 2010 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

does anyone remember the Ty Cobb quote

I think it was in the Ken Burns documentary. Basically, Cobb said that you should almost always take the extra base, especially trying to score from second. His argument was that the defense has to have like 6 things go perfectly — a clean catch, a clean throw to the cutoff man, a clean catch from the cutoff man, a perfect throw to the catcher, a clean catch, and a perfect tag. If any of those things go wrong, you score a run.

Granted, Cobb was fast and the fielders played without gloves. But I think there may still be something to the line of reasoning. And that argues FOR the aggressive baserunning, and against the straight steals and hit-n-runs, as you say Pops.

Basically, whenever THEY have to do a lot more things right than YOU do, it’s a good idea to be aggressive.
So, I think Gomes was right to try to score the other night from second with 2 outs, up by one run. The risk/reward was completely in his favor. (Plus, he was safe.)

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on May 13, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree, but I think the speed of the runner makes a huge difference

Bruce, Votto, Stubbs, BP, even Gomes, are all welcome to be agressive.

Ramon needs to keep his ass on third base.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is something ive struggled with

i know it to be true at the little league level, from which i draw all of my personal game experience. but i think at the big league level, the fielders are really, really good. they have to have 6 things go perfectly, but they are all really, really (relatively) good at doing those 6 things.

as ‘credsfan said, it’s all relative. if Stubbs is running, let him go. unless Votto is up after him.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 13, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

all this also implies

the correct call by the umpire.

But I'm here to tell you, this is actually a very good base running team. You may not believe me, which is why I've brought a chart to back me up: -- Slyde

by johnu1 on May 13, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

that might also indicate

really bad pitching.

Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden just pitched a perfect game against the Rays.

by johnu1 on May 13, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question

Could any of this newfound skill on the basepaths be attributed to Joe Morgan: Advisor? Little Joe certainly made a lot of hay by being aggressive on the basepaths and breaking the pitcher down mentally. Is it just a coincidence that we’ve brought him in as an advisor, and now are very good at being aggressive on the basepaths?

by Brendanukkah on May 13, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

could be.

The 2010 Reds – "It could have been a lot worse"
by RedsMasochist on May 4, 2010 8:47 PM EDT

by Madville on May 13, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

These data vs BPro's data

So BPro’s baserinning data, which are based on work by Dan Fox before he went to work for the pirates, and use many of these same inputs, have the Reds just about average at +.2 runs. They rate well above average in advancing on hits (as you largely focus on here). But below average on sb’s and advancing on outs, which cancels this. Do you think they’re missing something in those data?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=69262
-j

by JinAZ on May 13, 2010 6:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I'm sure their data is more precise

For one, I didn’t break it down by situation. The Reds could be going first to third when it doesn’t really matter (though have they really had many of those situations this year?). I’d guess that with the small amount of data that we are looking at, big mistakes made at critical times could have a bigger impact on the overall run value and cancel out a lot of the positive.

This is why I used the word “might” in my title. We’re way too early and the Reds are making too many SB related outs for me to give them the title outright. However, I believe it is an important factor for the Reds that they are being aggressive on hits to the outfield and avoiding running into outs at the same time. I believe it is something that can make up for their at-the-plate issues, at least a little bit. That is, assuming they don’t continue to run themselves into out on stolen bases and pick offs.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on May 13, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

we're looking at you, Brandon

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on May 13, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's hard to criticize the BPro data bc they don't let you look under the hood

EqBRR is based on the “the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities.” Not really sure what “quality” entails and whether there’s some leverage component in the formula. I’d rather see the raw data, as you layed it out.

by ken on May 14, 2010 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd have to go through the Dan Fox archives

But those stats were developed in a pretty transparent way (to my recollection) over a several month series of posts. My guess is that if you go look you’ll fond that info… Don’t know for sure, but that’s my guess.

by JinAZ on May 14, 2010 7:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

does baserunning really matter that much?

I heart speed, but I wonder if aggression on the basepaths pays.

According to this guy, stealing bases isn’t worth it even for a team that’s good at it.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2010 9:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Doug Glanville writes for the Times now

and Jay Bruce has, unrelatedly, really impressed me with his baserunning. His baseball instincts seem to be off the charts…he’s gonna be a lot of fun when his hitting is consistently hot.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on May 13, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

i heard him on Fresh Air the other day

he said he wasnt a big OBP guy, but he felt he made up for it with his base running. he also said he has an engineering degree from MIT. he was refreshingly articulate for an athlete.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 13, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

he has an engineering degree from Penn, not MIT.

By coincidence, I was just blogging about this tonight. Because I came across this article. Glanville’s written a book about baseball.

He says the funniest comment he ever got from a heckler was from a fan in Philly.

“My favorite comment was from a guy who … realized I was an engineer who had written a paper about building a new stadium in Philadelphia,” Glanville says. “So I was really struggling when I first came over to Philly in 1998, struggling and hitting like .190 so the guy yelled out ‘Why don’t you design a stadium you can hit in?’”

In the intro the book, he writes about how his career ended – battling for the last roster spot on the Yankees, and losing to Bubba Crosby. Which reminded me of the brouhaha about it on one of the Yankees forums. Most fans preferred Bubba, because they were tired of over the hill veterans. But one guy wanted Glanville. He claimed to be intelligent and well-educated, and said for that reason he preferred the Ivy Leaguer, Glanville, over “uneducated” Bubba Crosby. Never mind that Bubba had a degree from Rice. His name is Bubba, he must be uneducated. That thread ended up going for three or four pages.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 14, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Uh-oh...

They made her angry! You won’t like her when she’s angry.

That quote from the heckler was hilarious. I forgot all about Glanville until I read this. He had some good seasons.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on May 14, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well clearly, Penn >> Rice ; )

I heard the Glanville interview. Thank god Terri Gross assigned that one to a colleague.

by ken on May 14, 2010 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

You dissing "The Harvard of the South"?

Glanville’s book actually looks pretty interesting. I think I’m going to buy it.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 14, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

really?

Dave Davies is such a pie-faced goon. i’d much rather have Teri, even if her opening question is, “so baseball…what’s that like, cool or something?”

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

im ambivilent

her interviews are far more interesting than she is. but she’s a damn sight better than Davies. he sounds like a community college film professor with a critic show on the local public access channel. his britches are just a bit too big for him.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Her interviewees are interesting

But so are James Liptons’. The interviews themselves are mediocre.

This was my first time hearing Davies. He didn’t strike me as being particularly good or bad.

by ken on May 14, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I realize that there's more to baserunning than just stolen bases, however...

Last year, Boston’s opponents were successful on 151 of 174 stolen base attempts. Boston won 95 games.

When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

by poojols on May 14, 2010 10:14 AM EDT reply actions  

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