Opening Day Pitching Matchup: Carpenter v. Harang
by Slyde on Apr 5, 2010 8:54 AM EDT
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PrintToday is Opening Day, yes, but for me it's a little more special than that. You see, I'm a huge fan of the Chris Carpenter - Aaron Harang showdown. I know Harang isn't the same pitcher he was 3 years ago, but for some reason I still get giddy when these two face off. Memories of their epic duels in 2004 and 2006 (both of which the Reds won 1-0!) are burned into my brain.
Today will be the seventh time these two have faced off in their careers. In the previous six match-ups, each team has three wins, but the Cardinals have a much bigger run scoring advantage at 21-11. In typical Reds fashion, the offense has failed to support Harang much in these face-offs. The Reds have been shutout once and held to one run four other times in the six meetings. In the one game where the offense did break through against Carpenter, both pitchers stunk and the game came down to the bullpens and David Ross.
Carpenter, who frankly has always been the better pitcher, holds the advantage performance-wise in the match-ups. He has averaged over 8 innings per start with a 1.84 ERA, striking out 40 and walking just 6 in 49 innings. Harang hasn't been too bad though, going nearly 7 full innings every time, striking out 30 and walking 12 in 41.1 innings for a 3.92 ERA. The big difference between the two pitchers is hits allowed as Harang has given up 15 more hits in 7.2 fewer innings. Hopefully some of that will be corrected with the improved defense behind him.
These two hadn't faced each other for 2 entire seasons when they finally went up against each other again last June. While it wasn't quite to the level of the 1-0 duels we've seen in the past, both pitchers pitched complete games with Carpenter taking the 3-1 victory after holding the Reds to only 3 hits (2 from Chris Dickerson, 1 from Laynce Nix. Hmmmm, I wonder if that will come up?). Harang was solid in that game but went after Albert Pujols too much and paid the price. Prince Albert went 2 for 4 with a 2B and HR, driving in all 3 Cardinals runs.
The key for Harang today is to avoid putting men on base before Pujols. With Matt Holliday now in the lineup behind Pujols, he can't afford to pitch around Albert with men already on base. However, if the bases are empty, he can bypass the reigning NL MVP and challenge Holliday, who is just 1 for 16 against Harang in his career.
As for the Reds, patience is the key. Last year Carpenter threw only 107 pitches in his complete game. Carpenter has great control, so they shouldn't stand around waiting for a walk, but hacking at the first pitch isn't likely to do them any good either. Dickerson and Orlando Cabrera need to get on base for Joey Votto early. And for the love of all things holy, please don't settle for small ball in the first inning! They aren't likely to get many opportunities in this one, so hopefully they won't do their part to intentionally squander the ones they get.
The most crucial player to this game is Harang though. We already know the Reds aren't going to score a lot of runs. If Harang can keep the ball in the ballpark, we could see a win by the home team. However, if he's giving up bombs early, fans might as well head for the sushi line.
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how hard/expensive is it to find scalped tix today?
"Some times you get lucky; some times you get Willy Taveras." - Teh Fay
i can hardly sit still.
i’m so pumped for this season. i swapped out the static sticker on my rear windshield this morning as i do every opening day.
Running out to frontyard laughing! -Fat Vegas Alan
Can't link, but CTrent tweets that Dusty says Dickerson in CF isn't a platoon, but it's 'mostly Carpenter'
Not to hijack the thread or anything….
Oh, and Slyde is un-American! Stupid sushi…..
Give me some processed pork products and watery American beer, damnit!
/giddy for opening day
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
Look what it's done to poor Madville
by Brendanukkah on Apr 5, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Not to defend, just noting
Rockies are sitting their starting RF to get a LH against a RH and Macha is doing the same.
couple of articles from today's McPaper
Sliding: MLB average salary down 17% from 2009
The salaries of major league players on opening-day rosters have plummeted 17% from last year, the largest decrease since USA TODAY began its annual salary survey in 1988.“The economy has affected all of us,” said Atlanta Braves President John Schuerholz, whose team lowered its payroll from a year ago to $84.4 million, a 13% decline. “It’s a fact of life.”
The Reds payroll is down $1.8 million from last year. And there’s a huge drop in median salary. The Reds’ median salary is now almost minimum wage.
There’s this article, about minor league ballparks:
10 great places for a baseball pilgrimage
Louisville Slugger Field and Fifth Third Field are on the list.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
This a year after MLB set record revenues
Speaking of which how do you view MLB’s revenue success, BF? I remember when attendance didn’t crater last year many said it was because tickets were so discounted.
Attendance was down last year
The beginning of the season was better than the end. Not sure if the economy bit harder later in the season, or if it’s just normal for attendance to drop off as playoff hopes fade.
The Yankees and Mets had trouble selling tickets compared to previous years, even though they had fewer tickets to sell. I guess when you charge thousands for a seat, you can still make money even if you don’t sell all the tickets. :-P
A lot of teams are lowering ticket prices this year, including the Mets and Yanks.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I knew attendance was down
By “didn’t crater” I just meant that it didn’t collapse as much as predicted.
But when all was said and done revenue did increase to 6.6 billion.
Bud Selig
predicted attendance would drop 6%. Actual drop was 6.58%, so I would say the drop was as predicted. A little worse, even.
Interesting that it was mostly the Yanks and Mets to blame for that fewer seats, higher prices thing. I wonder what the numbers look like with them excluded.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
6%?
Did he actually predict that? That doesn’t seem like something the commissioner of a major sporting league would do
yes, he did
Selig was the biggest doomster of the lot. He got former federal reserve chairman Paul Volcker to give a presentation to the MLB owners. They wouldn’t say exactly what he said, but the owners reportedly came out of the session pale-faced with shock.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
click on the chart I posted above
The 6% prediction is there.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
My eyes must be tired
because I don’t see where in that article Selig predicts 6%. I feel like i’m going crazy. You are talking about the article from mlb.com right?
I don't recall Selig ever predicting a specific number for the attendance drop
Though your general point about Selig getting Volcker to warn everyone is certainly right.
Dear lord, no one spends as much time denigrating baseball and hand-wringing than Selig.
It’s how you decrease salaries while revenue increases
I don't remember 6% being bandied about
I was thinking about rhetoric like financial armageddon. Spring training attendance was down 12% last year which was offered as a frame of reference. And not to go all Tim Russert on you, but some warned of " catastrophic, historic drops in revenue. "
I’m not trying to pick a fight. I’m genuinely curious how you view the economics of last season. I was under the impression last year was not as bad as you thought it would be. Was it? Was it worse?
I’d take record setting revenues and the 5th highest attendance total in the midst of a recession.
I was talking about all of baseball
Not just the big leagues, but all the minor league teams, too. In particular, I was struck by how empty the SWB Yankees ballpark was. After years of never being able to get good seats there, I could suddenly get any seat in the park, just by walking up on game day. Apparently because corporate sales of season tickets had tanked.
Should be interesting to see what the Reds’ revenue was like last year. Attendance at GABP was down 15% over the previous year.
The economy in general has been better than I feared, but I think it’s mainly due to government spending. That can’t last, and it’s only postponed the problem. The underlying issues have not been solved, they’ve just been papered over. So in my view, the financial crisis has been delayed, not fixed.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I think the economy will do okay this year
barring “Black Swan” events. Yes, the deficit is becoming an issue, but with the elections this fall, Obama and Congress will be reluctant to cut back on the stimulus spending. A lot of states and local governments are in big trouble, but my guess is that they’ll be bailed out by the feds. Ditto some big banks. Investors are unhappy at the way we’re printing money, but with the euro, pound, and yen being in even worse shape, they will probably keep lending us money. Even though we are, IMO, reaching the point where we will never be able to repay it.
Of course, as I type this, CNN is announcing that that the 10-year bond rate has surged to the highest since the depths of the financial crisis in Oct. 2008.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'm looking for baseball predictions
It’s opening day, didn’t you hear? Attendance down what percent? Revenues holding steady, falling or rising again?
I'm gonna say
Attendance and revenue flat. I think the economy is still pretty bad, but it will be offset by lower prices and other promotions.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'll play too
I’ll say attendance gets a slight bump up on the basis of Target Field and the Yankees adjusting their prices (are they actually doing this? I have no idea).
Revenues will go up again.
On the topic of economics
there’s an op-ed in the NYT with a simple idea: end the business tax deduction for skyboxes and make tickets cheaper for fans.
These deductions have led to higher ticket prices in two ways. On the demand side, they have fueled competition for scarce seats, with business taxpayers bidding in part with dollars they save through the deductions.
On the supply side, the large number of businesses bidding for expensive seats has driven the expansion of luxury skyboxes and a reduction in overall seats in new ballparks.
. . .
Given corporate America’s passionate attachment to sports-related perks, a blanket elimination may be unrealistic . . . . A more feasible but still effective approach would be to limit deductions for luxury skybox tickets to a low, fixed amount—say, $50 per seat, per game.
Such a limit would be fair, unambiguous and easy to enforce. But above all, it would help baseball return to its roots, when average folks—not corporate entertainers—were the ones filling the seats.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
by Gray on Apr 5, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like that idea
It’s amazing how Yankee Stadium has shrunk over the years. Ordinary seats disappearing, so they can build more luxury boxes. If that’s what the market demands, fine, but the government shouldn’t be subsidizing it.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I don't know if you read the piece
but another interesting point was that the rule was amended in the 80s so that businesses could only deduct the cost of a non-skybox ticket. The Yankees are an extreme example of how useless that is, since many of the regular tickets are absurdly priced, too.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
yeah, I read it
When “regular” tickets cost thousands of dollars and come with wait service and haute cuisine, they shouldn’t be considered regular tickets.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
It’s normally pretty easy to get excited for the season before it starts. To an extent, this year is no exception. But that’s mainly due to the time of the year, and the good weather baseball season brings with it. Not the product on the field.
Normally I can look at the Reds lineup and it isn’t so obvious I’m a homer. I can look at say, maybe this year they will make the push cause their lineup isn’t so bad and I won’t look like a fool.
This year I can’t even get excited. Their lineup is like saltpeter.
I knew that going into the season. They are primed to be decent in 2-3 years, but I was just hoping maybe this year could be exciting. Then I looked at the lineup. Ouch.
... what about this year's lineup don't you like?
Other than Nix getting a start, there’s probably more talent in this lineup than we’ve seen in a while, and the pitching is the best it’s been in a decade.
"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin
by BK on Apr 5, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
define "a while"
Is this lineup better than the 2009 version? yes.
2008? maybe.
2007? nope.
2006? nope.
2005? nope.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
OD Lineups
2009:
Jerry Hairston LF
Darnell McDonald CF
Joey Votto 1B
Brandon Phillips 2B
Jay Bruce RF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Ramon Hernandez C
Alex Gonzalez SS
Aaron Harang P
2008:
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P
2007:
Ryan Freel CF
Adam Dunn LF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Ken Griffey RF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Alex Gonzalez SS
David Ross C
Aaron Harang P
2006:
Tony Womack 2B
Felipe Lopez SS
Ken Griffey CF
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Austin Kearns RF
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P
2005:
D’Angelo Jimenez 2B
Ken Griffey CF
Sean Casey 1B
Austin Kearns RF
Adam Dunn LF
Joe Randa 3B
Rich Aurilia SS
Jason LaRue C
Paul Wilson P
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
- I don’t like the fact that we have a guy hitting .275 BA last year at leadoff
- Cabrera has “decent” but I don’t have much hope for him with the bat. I could be totally wrong about him but I think with Dickerson and Cabrera at 1 and 2 we won’t get much on the basepath’s for Votto.
- I’ve never been a Ramon Hernandez fan. Never.
- Until Jay Bruce proves otherwise I am still iffy on his potential.
Batting average shouldn't be what you are worried about
Dickerson gets on base at a good clip (.363 OBP in the minors, .370 last year in the bigs). He’ll be getting on base a lot more than what we saw from leadoff hitters the past 2 years. Not sure on Stubbs yet, though his minor league OBP (.364) is good.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
yea, and I am better then that. I shouldn’t have used BA.
Anything is better then Taveras. Which is something I don’t think we should say. If we want to be playoff contenders we can’t really compare each years team to the previous decade cause that will get us nowhere but more medocrity. Am I wrong?
well, if Dickerson and Stubbs can post an OBP over .350 for the year
they’d probably be at least in the top half of lead-off hitters in the league. Over .360 and they’ll be in the top 3 or 4. I think Dickerson can do it, but I’m concerned that Stubbs won’t since he seems to have a totally different approach than what he had in the minors.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Appreciate the statistical comparison.
I am so-so on statistical knowledge and comparison so I was ready to be told I was saying bullshit that was wrong. That sounds good if Dickerson can do it, for sure. I wasn’t sure what the leadoff expectations were in regards to OBP
I still don't think the Reds will have a good offense
but I’m optimistic that the lead-off spot won’t be the main problem this year.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
How much do you think I’ll get to see Hannigan early on? I know Hernandez lately has been the superior bat in spring training but Hannigan hasn’t been awful.
Dusty thinks that Hernandez is an RBI witch
so I’m guessing that the best we can hope for is maybe a 60-40 split on playing time. I’d much rather it was closer to 50-50, but I don’t make the lineup cards.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
How long was Hernandez out last year?
Six weeks? Two months? Anyway, even with that he still started more games on the season (79) than Hanigan (72), though that’s partially because he started 26 at 1B.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Fair enough
- Stubbs will get the majority of time there, don’t worry, and the OBP for both is good enough to not matter
- I wasn’t a huge fan of this pickup either, but he can hit, and better than most of the others in the lineup. He should be batting 7th, not 2nd, but he’s better than Gonzalez was there last year.
- He’s better than LaRue/Ross/Corky/Valentin.
- He was the minor league player of the year a few years ago, and he just turned 23. Chill.
"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin
by BK on Apr 5, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
And the pitching I can only slightly get excited about. Like Hernandez, I have never been a fan of Harang. It isn’t really his fault, but I don’t like the he is our #1 pitcher. I know this will probably be the last year I have to see that but I have always felt with him as our anchor we were going nowhere.
Volquez is out for awhile.
I like Cueto, I really do, and his 2nd year was an improvement of his first, albeit a small improvement. But he still isn’t where I hope he is. Maybe this year he will show me different. He’s still really young.
Leake and Bailey have potential. Bailey was defintely showing some good signs at the end of last year.
I like our outlook for the future in the rotation, but potential only gets me so excited.
FWIW
I wouldn’t get too hung up on Harang as the #1. Yes, he’s pitching Opening Day, but that’s mostly ceremonial. The Reds have a solid set of starters, but nobody is truly a number 1 on the staff, which is probably the issue that you really have with it.
Personally, I think they have the pitching to keep them in games, but they don’t have the offense to take games.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
What’s more frustrating as a fan to you,
Losing games because your hitting can’t match your pitching
or
Losing games because your pitching can’t match your hitting.
This year has the looks of the former, but we have definitely seen the later. I don’t know which one would piss me off more. I think this years could be more frustrating (poor hitting, decent pitching)
I think both are frustrating
but I’d much rather see high scoring losses just because runs are more fun. However, I think it is easier to win with the former. If you can lower the run environment, you can control the game more.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
they haven't posted it, but OMG Reds has this year's Opening Day baby
The wife of one of their authors gave birth to their first son this morning. He’s the 2010 version of Brian B.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Hi Brendan.
I had an interview for a job in Washington, but it didn’t work out, so I’m going to be working in Madison starting in August. At least I can go to Milwaukee for Reds games? Oh wait, they’d be in Milwaukee.
I hear Madison's a cool town
Have fun there!
by Brendanukkah on Apr 5, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
There'll be people making that roadtrip at least every weekend
Maybe you can join along and chip in for petrol or take Badger Bus.
3 hours before the first game
and twitter is already broken. FAIL.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I loved reading about Bill Cunningham getting sued in my first year torts class.
For blowing smoke, appropriately.
IAN! I'm on traain!
Yes, this makes me happy, too.
And I love how McCain disowned him during the campaign for being a total dick.
I have my beer, my homemade chili and my mlb gameday audio subscription
Oh yeah. I’m ready for this.
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
Damn right.
Just because I live in Texas now doesn’t mean I’ve abandoned my Cincinnati chili
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
by SullivanSmith on Apr 5, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll catch the first 45 minutes and then keep looking at my iPod during Plant Sciences for updates...
You all will have to keep me updated :P
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
From CTrent
#reds have officially designated Aaron miles and wladimir balentien for assignment
I suppose MIles could end up in the minors if he consents, but if I’m not mistaken about how all this works, they’ve got 10 days to trade Wlad or put him on waivers.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Apr 5, 2010 11:46 AM EDT reply actions
I'm never 100% on labor practice
but I think they can still trade Wlad, unless only the Nats were interested. You’d have to think Washington would be a good candidate to pick him up on waivers, so if someone further down the order is interested they could make a deal.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Apr 5, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't imagine why the Nats wouldn't snatch him up
They released Dukes and have Willie Harris, Justin Maxwell, Robert Bernardina and Willy f-ing Taveras as RF options.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Apr 5, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah they would really blow it if they missed this opportunity.
i just really want us to keep in our organization.
Running out to frontyard laughing! -Fat Vegas Alan
(2 from Chris Dickerson, 1 from Laynce Nix. Hmmmm, I wonder if that will come up?)
A-ha! That explains it.
Carpenter's best work against the Central comes against us
2.11 ERA in 93 innings, with a 7.4 (!) K/BB. The only team that comes close is Pittsburgh (2.27, 94 IP).
does the game start in one hour?
i’m confused by the time difference and WLW just played national anthem. i thought it was noon in cincy now?
Did you just load up WLW online?
I just did the same and heard it too. Weird.
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
by SullivanSmith on Apr 5, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't WLW always play the national anthem at noon?
It’s been a while since I’ve listened to the ol radio, but I think that’s the case.
Happy opening day!!!
I made it back to my place in time to return a book to the library and buy beer.
Wrigley was a beautiful sight when I was landing, it is pretty much beautiful all over the country today.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
he was very positive about everything
how will chapman do? “great”
how will leake do? “great”
how’s the leadership on the team? “Rolen is great! Cabrera is a winner, he’s great!”
will larkin make the hall of fame? “absolutely, he’s not just a great player, he’s a great person!”
will mark mgwire make the hall of fame? “i don’t know, but i’ll tell you one thing, he’s a great hitting coach!”
how’s retirement treating you? “it’s great!”
you’re throwing out the first pitch, what are you going to throw? “i just hope to get it over the plate”
yeah... just a little too rainbows and sunshine for me...
Running out to frontyard laughing! -Fat Vegas Alan
anybody else having trouble getting gameday to load?
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
I cant get mlb.tv to work either
if i miss opening day…
I swear to christ
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on Apr 5, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone catch last nights game?
It seemed like a real barn burner
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on Apr 5, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions
I can get to the login screen but the login button doesnt activate?
anyone with a similar problem?
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
is it airing on another station?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
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