A Quick Look at Baker's Bullpen Management by Leverage Index

by Slyde on Apr 28, 2010 1:27 PM EDT in Stat-Colored Glasses

Inspired by this post from Royals Review about Joakim Soria, I decided to take a graphical look at how Dusty Baker has been using his relievers this season relative to the situation. This graph isn't perfect, but it gives us an idea of who he is comfortable with in high leverage situations. For those that aren't familiar with Leverage Index, here is a quick definition:

A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base.

In the graph below I have indicated the leverage index for when the pitcher entered the game. This only tells part of the story, but I think it is somewhat telling about who Dusty uses in crucial situations. I have highlighted Francisco Cordero (can you tell) to give you an idea of how Baker is using his closer:

Two things stick out about this graph. One, Baker has been pretty good about using Cordero in high leverage situations, though some of that is a function of the fact that the Reds have won a lot of close games late. When your wins are 2 runs or less, the ninth inning usually ends up being the highest leverage situation in the game.

The other thing that sticks out for me is that Daniel Ray Herrera is being used in some very high leverage situations this season. I'm not sure if this is by design as much as it is likely that a left-hander was coming to the plate in the 6th or 7th inning, and Baker has been saving Arthur Rhodes almost exclusively for the 8th inning this year.

All in all, I think Baker has done a pretty good job of managing the bullpen. The only pitcher I think he put to the fire a bit too much was Logan Ondrusek, who probably saw a few too many higher pressure situations right out of the gate. To Baker's credit though, he hasn't used Mike Lincoln in a high leverage spot yet. Hopefully this has allowed Lincoln to build some confidence in case he is called upon to get some crucial outs in the near future.

After the jump, I have a table listing out the total leverage usage of each reliever.

Player	pLI	gmLI	inLI
Francisco Cordero	2.40	1.80	1.80
Nick Masset	1.17	0.82	0.89
Daniel Ray Herrera	1.03	1.54	0.86
Logan Ondrusek	0.95	1.26	0.95
Arthur Rhodes	0.91	1.21	1.07
Mike Lincoln	0.52	0.70	0.61
Micah Owings	0.50	0.84	0.71
Carlos Fisher	0.00	0.00	0.00

Data from FanGraphs: pLI - average leverage index for all events on the season; gmLI - average leverage index when the reliever enters the game; inLI - average leverage index when the reliever starts a new inning.

Poll

Grade Dusty's bullpen management so far this season:

A

12 votes

B

105 votes

C

63 votes

D

27 votes

F

14 votes

221 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

ohmygod i love those little juan castro faces!

Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...

by boobs on Apr 28, 2010 2:30 PM EDT reply actions

that's Arizonist!

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Apr 28, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

this is ar eally, really, neat lil graph, fwiw

by Cy Schourek on Apr 28, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

yeah

it definitely rules

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Apr 28, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted B, mainly because of Lincoln's 2 inning stints and Ondrusek getting thrown to the wolves

but all in all, a pretty good job. It’s not Dusty’s fault the entire pen sucked for about a week.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Apr 28, 2010 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

Yea, I voted B b/c of Ondrusek

Looking at the 4/7 and 4/12 games especially. As a rookie, one who had never pitched in the big leagues this season, he should not have been the go-to guy for situations that were that high-leverage. Aside from that, the bullpen’s been used well, albeit often (but that’s not Dusty’s fault).

by ThePensive on Apr 28, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

What's also odd is that

Herrera is consistently used in higher leverage situations than Rhodes.

But right, the weirdest thing was setting Ondrusek up to fail so much. There was just no reason to do that.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Apr 28, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

A

considering the circumstances, things could very easily have gone much, much worse.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 28, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions

C

for the misuse of Ondrusek and the fact that I just hate Dusty (as a manager).

When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

by poojols on Apr 28, 2010 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

Unrelated to this thread, but what the hell does Hanigan have to do to earn more PT?

14/29 on the season and 8 for his last 11 with 2 doubles and 2 walks. Threw out 2/3 runners last night. Err..

by jsl413 on Apr 28, 2010 2:58 PM EDT reply actions

he probably has to keep his BA above .330

keep driving in runs and throwing out runners for the next 3 months. or Clutch Man Monie gets hurt.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 28, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Not that it means anything, but...

Hanigan has started only 4 games that the Reds have lost. Two were Pirates walkoff, the other was another 1-run loss to the Cubs. One was the 10-4 shallacking by the Padres. So.. correlation says he calls a better game than Hernandez while, of late at least, providing much better offense.

Hanigan also started in wins over StL, Florida, LA, and Houston. So he’s 4-4.. so much for that. Still, 1.248 OPS tells you he’s got a hot bat, especially since in the last 5 games it’s more like 1.600 OPS

by jsl413 on Apr 28, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, of games he's started..

He’s been hitless only once. In all but one other game, he’s reached base at least twice.

by jsl413 on Apr 28, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff as usual

I might be the best qualified here to give Dusty advice on stuff like this, seeing as how Im smoking in the Death Match league, but DB has done okay with the bullpen, and is starting to make better lineup decisions. Think he reads RR?

Find me on Twitter- http://www.twitter.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Apr 28, 2010 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

I voted D

mostly because he has often used too many relief pitchers in low leverage situations. I may be making that up, but it feels like the truth, truthniess. I would like him to make less pitching changes.

I hate Dusty Baker so goddamn much.

by justin007000 on Apr 28, 2010 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

That's a good point...

I guess that’s one thing the graph fails to cover. All in all, a really interesting and informative post though.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Apr 28, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree on both counts

That was the big issue I had with Dusty’s bullpen use. Pulling pitchers after only 7 or 12 pitches. When they were getting people out.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Apr 28, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

That is a good point.

I wonder if Slyde (or anyone) could easily access a statistic like (number of innings pitched by non-starters)/(number of appearances by non-starter)

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Apr 28, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Here goes...

Batters faced/appearance:

Cordero 4.4
Lincoln 5.3
Masset 4.7
Ondrusek 4.3
Herrera 2.6
Owings 9.8
Rhodes 3.4
Fisher 5

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Apr 28, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

I’d prefer for my closer to be averaging fewer than 4.4 batters faced per appearance

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Apr 28, 2010 5:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Yeah...

He’s right below 1 IP/appearance, but his WHIP is about 1.4.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Apr 28, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

broad assumption:

LOOGYs like Danny Ray will generally have a higher “leverage number” because they’re in for one or two guys that absolutely must get out.

Danny is a good example. His very first MLB game was against the Phillies (check out that lineup, too, btw)

Harang started the 7th down 3-1 and put runners on 2nd and 3rd, no out. Danny comes in, gets Victorino to ground out. IBB’s Headley, and then Ks Howard and Burrell.

It was solely because he was a LOOGY that he was put in that situation. And its solely because of this inning that I love me some Danny Ray

by Cy Schourek on Apr 28, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

durrr

forget to add: high leverage number, but lower batters faced number

by Cy Schourek on Apr 28, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I was almost tempted to give an A

but I wasn’t a huge fan of using Cordero in the ninth last night. Why not give him a rest and let Fisher pitch the last inning. Other than that, he’s done a good job.

I once defended the managerial styles of Jerry Narron after a Reds loss in a bar after a long night of drinking. I wish I could say that I don't remember doing that.

www.nextyearisouryear.blogspot.com

by chazerize on Apr 28, 2010 4:45 PM EDT reply actions

He's done a better job than I'd have assumed

though the graph doesn’t reflect those lil’ ill-advised match-ups, like Lincoln vs. Pujols in his Lincoln’s second inning of work on Opening Day.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Apr 28, 2010 4:57 PM EDT reply actions