Wladimir's Reprieve

The Reds got lucky the second week into the season.  I'm not referring to the early series comeback wins with the Marlins, rather the surprise retention of Wladimir Balentien.  Balentien was put on waivers just before the final rosters were set, but just 10-days since he managed to clear every other team's general-manager from being claimed.  Fortunately for the Reds, Balentien is heading back to AAA-Louisville with another chance to prove he belongs on the major-league roster. 

Balentien hasn't really shown much at the major league level up to this point in his career, but the potential for a legit power-hitting corner-outfielder is still there.  Some will argue that Balentien's clearance through waivers implies that he is not major league material worthy of a roster spot.  Heck, Walt Jocketty decided to go with Miguel Cairo and Laynce Nix over Balentien when finalizing the 40-man roster.  Furthermore, we know not of Balentien's interpersonal relationships within major league's inner circle, which could ultimately be the main reason why he was left unclaimed.  We may never know for sure, but I prefer to believe Balentien's roster omission was an educated gambit by Walt Jocketty, and that Balentien is still in favor with the club where his potential may be fully realized.  Although each aforementioned are valid arguments against Balentien and validate responses of ‘who cares about the 40th man on any roster?', the arbiters of such notions would be wise to reflect upon the career trajectory of other late-blooming power hitters currently finding success in MLB.

Just this week, Buster Olney noted that early spring is an optimum time to pass a player through waivers and referenced Nelson Cruz who recently passed through waivers at the onset of the 2008 season.  Cruz was 26 years old at the time and had his own share of failure, at least by major league standards.  However, by the end of the 2008 season, Cruz turned the corner in his career.  By 2009, Cruz was well on his way to becoming an All-Star and one of the most feared hitters in the major leagues.  Just two seasons ago, Cruz could have been had by the Reds or any other major-league team for a steal.  Perhaps the same will be said of Balentien 2-3 years from now, since Balentien currently has just as much potential as Cruz did two seasons ago.

Nelson Cruz was once considered a top-ten prospect for two different franchises (A's in 2005 & Brewers in 2006) by Baseball America, while Balentien was considered a top-ten prospect for three different seasons while with the Mariners (2006, 2007, & 2008).  Baseball Cube's scouting database suggests that Cruz and Balentien have nearly identical scout ratings for the tools of power, patience, and contact.  In other moments of synchronicity, each player signed for slightly above $400,000 and each was a participant in MiLB's Future Game representing ‘The World'.  Furthermore, their minor league numbers are not disparate enough to suggest that Cruz was to or will be the superior ball-player, or blessed with more overall potential. 

Take a look at the figures and tables provided.  Each describes measures of offensive productivity of each player for each level of experience up to the spring when each player cleared waivers (Balentien in 2010 and Cruz in 2008).   It doesn't appear that there is a vast amount of difference in each player's abilities, at least by these measures of production alone.  It does appear that Cruz has performed better from A+ on, while Balentien performed better in the lower-levels.  However, without dissecting park- and league-factors, the data isn't conclusive, at least not overly distinguishable.  Perhaps more relevant to the comparison is the age discrepancy of each player.

 For each level of performance, Balentien was 2-3 years younger than Cruz.  This suggests that Balentien may have been ‘rushed' a bit, at least compared to Cruz and his minor-league performances.  The difference is telling:  Nelson Cruz at age 22 was playing in low A, while Balentien at age 22 completed a full season of AAA (see tables at end).  Perhaps the most inspiring ‘nugget' of data is found within the performances of each player during their early introductions into the Major Leagues.  Both players struggled mightily in their early performances, under-performing from their minor-league track record and what scouting reports would suggest. 

Overall, it's encouraging news for Balentien, since he is where Cruz was career-wise just two seasons ago and still has a chance to develop into stardom.  What's even more promising is that Balentien is 4-years younger than Cruz, and just upon the precipice of the average ballplayer's peak years of performance.  If Cruz can bloom at such a late time in his career at a much older age, who's to say that Balentien can't become a legit power-hitting corner-outfielder?  For now, at least, we have another season to evaluate the 25-year-old Balentien as a potential contributor to the future of the Reds.  I, for one, consider the Reds very lucky to retain a player with such potential and will be watching his performance in Louisville very closely.