A Quick Look at the Difference 100 MPH Makes
by Slyde on Mar 9, 2010 10:09 AM EST
in Features
166 comments
In yesterday's thread about Aroldis Chapman reaching 100 MPH on the radar gun, it was asked what a difference 100 MPH makes compared to, say, 96 MPH. I decided to take a simple look at it, just for fun. This is in no way definitive and there are huge caveats. For instance, each park reads speed slightly differently and I have not adjusted for that. Also, movement matters just as much as speed. Fast and straight is still hittable for a big leaguer. I have not taken any of that into account.
So, with that being said, here are the numbers that I found, courtesy of Joe Lefkowitz's Pitch F/X Tool:
| Speed | Count | Swings | Misses | In Play | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | AvgIP | IsoIP | Miss% |
| 100+ | 263 | 154 | 42 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .238 | .000 | 27.3% |
| 99 | 676 | 383 | 90 | 107 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .299 | .112 | 23.5% |
| 98 | 1937 | 1012 | 236 | 312 | 66 | 24 | 1 | 9 | .321 | .170 | 23.3% |
| 97 | 4428 | 2268 | 429 | 798 | 197 | 40 | 5 | 21 | .330 | .142 | 18.9% |
| 96 | 7389 | 3688 | 644 | 1350 | 313 | 82 | 5 | 46 | .330 | .170 | 17.5% |
In Play includes HR; AvgIP is average on balls in play, including HR; IsoIP is power (slugging minus batting avg) on balls in play; Miss% is the percentage of swings that the batter failed to make contact (contact includes foul balls)
Obviously this is only one season and we are looking at the rarest of rare pitchers, so it's hard to draw anything concrete from this small set of numbers. However, it does appear that there is a distinct advantage being able to throw it 98 or faster, as you would expect. Hitters appear to be able to put the bat on the bull much easier at 97 than 98. On the other hand, when contact is made on 98, it looks like it's just as solid as at 97.
If you can rev it up to 99 or higher though, you should be in pretty good shape. Ultimately what matters most is movement and what your other pitches look like. If all you do is throw 98 MPH fastballs and the hitter knows that, most big league hitters will be able to catch up to it eventually and at that point, you've got problems.
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he's so confident
he calls out the third strike before it even gets to the plate
Sonny my pitched my wild
by GrooveLeg on Mar 9, 2010 10:24 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
That's pretty gangster
Methinks that had to be some sort of breaking ball, with the ball rolling off that 3 finger grip
by Highlifeman21 on Mar 9, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I saw a picture of him yesterday with his long middle finger extended just after his release.
Can’t wait for him to give Pujols ‘the bird.’
"Let's get this movie. We already have the underwear."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 9, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
that deserves to be green
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
$30M
"Let's get this movie. We already have the underwear."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 9, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Starters vs Relievers
Really cool breakdown here but I’d like to know what %age of each type of pitch was thrown by starters/relievers. Just by count it seems like anything 99 or above would have to be a reliever (or very rarely by a starter) which could explain some of the difference.
Really gives you an idea of how special his arm is though.
sure, I understand that but I wanted to go quick and dirty.
I figured there were so many other factors involved in the success/failure, that I wanted to keep it simple. Hopefully somebody with more time and pitch fx experience will take it a step further.
FWIW, in yesterday’s thread, I pointed out that only three starters hit above 100 MPH last season – Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Bobby Parnell. I’m not sure how that changes as you go down the chain though.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
interesting
It’s not as though he will just decide to hit 100 just because he can. His catchers will have much more say in that than he will.
For now, I see it as a plus because it’s causing people to talk, and that will do nothing but help the team’s P.R., which is just down the street from Cooba.
I just knew that I would now be having train sex with a very odd broad in no time. I didn’t expect the bitch to shoot me though. (Pops Daniels)
right
but Justin Verlander, for instance, threw 300 pitches of 98 MPH or more last season. That’s only about 8% of his pitches thrown, but having that in your arsenal means that a hitter has to always be ready for it. Verlander’s average fastball was still 95 last year. Considering he threw about 2600 fastballs last years, that’s pretty damn impressive. If Chapman can do something like that, we’ve got something special for sure.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
that's the thing
Surely the ability to dial it up 3 (or 5!) mph is essentially to have another “sub-pitch” in your arsenal.
I’m surprised how big the difference is between 99 and 100 on your chart. 200-some pitches to sustain, e.g., a 4% difference in miss chance is statistically non-negligible. I think. Unfortunately I was taught stats 10 years ago by a man with a Southern accent, so your mileage may vary.
"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill
One note, 100+ actually means 100-102.7, which is the fastest pitch recorded in '09
I’d sure like to see the differences over a larger set of data, but I didn’t want to make it anymore complicated – at least not right now – and I felt like I was already hitting Lefkowitz’s database pretty hard.
My guess is that over a larger sample of data, 99 and 100+ might start to look a little more alike. Then again, maybe the very fact that 100+ is so rare means that it won’t. That’s the beauty of it.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Also, hi, hello, and welcome!
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
Surprised to see how high the isoP is at 96-98
Dumb physics question – assuming a hitter makes the same contact (same bad speed and spot on the wood), will he hit the faster pitch further? I feel like I’ve heard that on broadcasts before, but it seems like a faster pitch should “push back” the bat some, resulting in weaker contact.
oh here we go, getting dumb physics questions again
whatever happened to the really probing kind?
I just knew that I would now be having train sex with a very odd broad in no time. I didn’t expect the bitch to shoot me though. (Pops Daniels)
remember, it's IsoP on balls in play
which takes out strikeouts. That’s why it is so high.
I didn’t include strikeouts because that’s just a matter of timing – a pitcher may not throw 96 MPH+ to get the strikeout.
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nope, it's slugging percentage minus batting average
which means that at bats are the denominator, which would include strikeouts.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
There's no such thing as a stupid question.
Only stupid people.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
All else being equal, including lining up the bat on the ball just the same,
the ball will rebound faster off the bat from a faster incoming pitch.
If you want to read about the detailed physics behind it, here is a good paper on the physics of the ball-bat collision by Alan Nathan and Rod Cross:
http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/AJP-Nov2000.pdf
by Mike Fast on Mar 9, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Thanks Mike!
We’re a lot of things here at Red Reporter, but physicist does not appear to be one of them. Glad to have a real one pop in with some help!
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one cool thing in that paper
since the contact time between the ball and bat is short (for major league pitchers and hitters) the shock of impact doesn’t reach the hands until the contact is mostly over. That means that the ball speed coming off the bat doesn’t depend on how tight you have the bat gripped. Effectively, the part of the bat that hits the ball doesn’t “know” if you are barely holding the bat or squeezing the heck out of it.
I never played any formal baseball, but my softball friends are always telling me things about how tight to hold the bat and when to squeeze it. From this paper, that might matter A LOT at lower levels, but by the time you get to the bigs, it doesn’t matter anymore. Instead of choosing a grip that will get the ball to rebound best, you should choose a grip that gets you the most bat speed.
I think it’s interesting that “proper technique” at lower levels can be different than “proper technique” in the bigs.
(p.s. Slyde, there’s at least one more physicist here at RR… :) )
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
by bbjones on Mar 11, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ssssshhhhh
Don’t let him know physicists exist among him.
/even-former-ones
"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod
if he doesn't look
we neither exist, nor don’t exist. :)
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
holy heisenberg
Actually, that’s really interesting about that grip thing.
But do players really change their grips? Seems like that would be pretty much set by the time they reach the big leagues.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I have no idea
But I agree with you, it seems unlikely.
The interesting thing is, maybe they should. Their college grip might have been optimized for one thing, while their MLB grip should be optimized for another.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
another thing
Do the Louisville slugger people analyze the vibrational modes of the bat when deciding on a shape? The paper shows that you really benefit from having the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th mode nodes near, but not right on top of each other. That’s what makes the sweet spot, and the ball velocity drops off fast away from the sweet spot.
That means that big league power is probably a stronger function of being good at putting the sweet spot on the ball than it is a function of being super strong (though of course both play a part.) It seems like if you could tune the locations of those nodes, you’d increase the size of the sweet spot, and probably gain a lot of power.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
by bbjones on Mar 12, 2010 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this should be a FanPost
Seriously…I would love to see a “science of baseball” post or two.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
agreed
bbjones, if you have the time and the interest, I’d love to see stuff like this on the site more. If you put it in a fanpost, I can almost guarantee that it will end up on the front page and I will take full credit for it!
(Seriously though, thanks for the insight. Math is hard but these explanations make sense and are helpful)
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I have the interest
it’s the time that’s troublesome.
I’ll try to write something up about it, but the best I can promise is sometime before the all-star break… :)
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
'round here
that pretty much qualifies for a spot as an admin.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 13, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
For those that are looking closely
the numbers above for 100+ MPH are slightly different that what I put in the comments for yesterday’s thread because I accidentally left out pitches that measured exactly 100 MPH yesterday. I’m pretty sure these numbers are complete above, assuming there isn’t a large portion of data being left out by Lefkowitz’s query tool.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
as for other notions on this
hitting background, is there a guy on base, where are they shading the hitter and the 154 zillion other important components. To simplify, I think, what this does all mean is pretty easy:
We have a guy who is among the few who have this tool available.
Whatever comes of that is in the hands of people we hope are smart guys.
If Chapman succeeds, he’s a corporation until himself.
If he fails, he joins that list that riverfront76 put out this winter.
I just knew that I would now be having train sex with a very odd broad in no time. I didn’t expect the bitch to shoot me though. (Pops Daniels)
sometimes I wonder
about my brain
If Chapman succeeds, he’s a corporation until unto himself.
I just knew that I would now be having train sex with a very odd broad in no time. I didn’t expect the bitch to shoot me though. (Pops Daniels)
So it makes sense if you just change that one word?
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
by Gray on Mar 9, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
well, I did change the wrong word.
then it would.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
this is wicked opaque
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Mar 9, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
let me clarify, according to Nathan
One might be tempted to generalize Eq. ~17! for e0<1 by simply reinserting e0 where it was in Eq. ~16!. Such a formula would be very appealing physically since it would clearly separate the effects of energy dissipation in the ball
which depends on e0! and vibrational energy in the bat which depends on the Rn!. Unfortunately, although this formula is a good approximation to vf , explicit calculation shows that it somewhat underestimates vf by overestimating the energy dissipated in the ball.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
Nope, it's the Cuban Missile Effect.
also known as CME x v100 = k9x3
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
I don't see what the big deal is
Jeff Suppan throws over 100 all the time.
Wait, what? Oh, MPH?
It was a great selection of awesome.
i've been in canada opening for miles davis...
sorry, kilometers davis.
Sonny my pitched my wild
by GrooveLeg on Mar 9, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
eh.
"Let's get this movie. We already have the underwear."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 9, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
What did he change his last name to when he got to Canada?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Or is he from Canada?
Either way, he needs a name change. No one can actually say that…
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Out Cold, right??
I haven’t seen the Hangover yet (still planning to..)
He was great in Out Cold though.
Education is what you get from reading the directions. Experience is what you get from not reading them.
Everyone who liked him in The Hangover should see Out Cold
"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin
by BK on Mar 9, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
everyone who liked ted danson in Bored to Death
should watch Curb Your Enthusiasm
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
No one should watch anything with Brendan Fraser
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
everyone who hasn't started watching curb your enthusiasm yet
should have their televisions taken away
thats not what i meant
i meant it’s not as good as its made out to be
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
Isn't it more like
8/5 Kilometer Davis?
We can’t just substitute kilos for miles, y’know.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
/galifianakis'd
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
What's Chapman's arsenal like?
I know we’ve discussed it before… Good slider, right? Working on a change? What else have we got?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Somewhere in the 100+ MPH range..
Education is what you get from reading the directions. Experience is what you get from not reading them.
i wonder how much difference there is between a 96 fastball and a 100
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
someone should really look into that
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
Welcome to the party..
Education is what you get from reading the directions. Experience is what you get from not reading them.
I don't know..
I’ve spent more time here today than I have in the past three months…
Education is what you get from reading the directions. Experience is what you get from not reading them.
I didn't read the comments, but Slyde, nice work
Did anyone quote Mantle’s line about being able to hit a bullet as long as it is moving straight?
Mickey Mantle would not have like 'Wanted'.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
So, pretty much like everyone else
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
by nycredsfan on Mar 9, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
let me guess
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
I am a fan of women with tattoos.
"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod
by jch24 on Mar 9, 2010 1:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
(cue obc chiming in about how gross tattoos are on women)
"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod
by jch24 on Mar 9, 2010 2:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He didn't say he was special. he was illustrating that movement was more important than speed
and, according to the SI article we’ve all read, there was glorious movement along with a good slider and velocity. Tim is getting excited about Chapman’s prospects!
As far as mantle’s philosophy goes, NYC, at least he was sober when he said that.
Besides when you think about Spring Training sensations, you HAVE to think back to what Mantle did in 1951.
I'm trying to figure out what this was in response to
cuz it doesn’t feel like a response to the comment you responded to.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
To NYC's comment
You just wanted me to compliment you yet again. No way, mister. No way you get two compliments in one day from me
again
I don’t get the response. NYC was saying that Mantle wouldn’t like “Wanted” and you seem to be arguing something else.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
You're right!
Damn, I thought he was replying to me.
Do I always sound like I’m full og gibberish or was it just today?*
*I’d appreciate it if no one answered that
I know I didn't like "Wanted"
Since it was an insult to my intelligence on like 10 levels and I ain’t that smart
if Mickey Mantle was so good
then how come he’s dead?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 9, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think alcohol use was a factor
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Mar 9, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
To all Yahoo! users:
Yes, this is a baseball site.
"Red Reporter - An elitist clique full of like-minded douchebags." - BK
RR user poll:
what’s better: pancakes or waffles?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 9, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
im gonna have to disagree slightly
a well-made belgian waffle is better than a pancake can possibly be. A waffle is a pancake with a syrup trap
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
Here's how it is.
IHOP’s pancakes > WH’s waffles
IHOP’s everything else < WH’s everything else
"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin
by BK on Mar 9, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Waffle House's hash browns >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> IHOP's hash browns
"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin
by BK on Mar 9, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
I used to work there, Shocker
Those are dehydrogenated shreds of starch in a box until you soak them in a filthy sink in the back room.
Let me go ahead and list the Waffle Houses I’ve worked at that have roaches
-Sharon Rd
-Rt 42
-8th st, Covington
Cincinnati Dayton Rd is very clean.
These are two of my favorite RR posts ever.
"Let's get this movie. We already have the underwear."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 10, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
No one goes to Waffle House for waffles
They go for the hash browns, duh
by Highlifeman21 on Mar 9, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Waffles, when prepared correctly, absolutely destroys any pancake you can make
"aaron harnann is so aweseom" - justin
by BK on Mar 9, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Where do Belgiam Waffles fit in?
They use a special kind of sugar called pearl sugar made from beets. Apparently they can’t grow sugar cane in Belgium
I hate pancakes
but then you already knew that, didn’t you?
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Cuaffles?
"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod
by jch24 on Mar 9, 2010 2:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Waffle, cause you can turn it into a cone and put ten scoops of UDF ice cream in there.
/Brantley’d
(The real answer is french toast, though.)
by the finest muffins on Mar 9, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
his record for one sitting isnt that high is it?
i thought it was like 7 scoops
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
Oh, I don't know his record. I was hyperbolizing.
But it’s kind of like the difference between a 100 mph fastball and a 102 mph fastball. At some point it’s just flat out nasty.
by the finest muffins on Mar 9, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
i think im in the minority
but i really love listening to brantley talk about ice cream and barbeque
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
...combined!
Unless the pancakes in question are pumpkin pancakes. Then all bets are off.
by the finest muffins on Mar 9, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
i really like strawberry and chocolate chip pancakes too.
My mother in law makes something that she tries to pass off as french toast, but it’s actually “Egg Bread”. Egg bread is gross. French Toast should have a strong cinnamon flavor
we make pumpkin waffles in my house
and it’s transcendent.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 9, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
French Toast hands down!
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
you know what is even better than French Toast?
Freedom Toast! That is the breakfast real Americans eat.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
Depends on the kind, really
I prefer pancakes to waffles generally, since they typically have more flavor, although a properly cooked waffle that’s light and fluffy tends to treat me better
by Highlifeman21 on Mar 9, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
No. For three copies.
"Let's get this movie. We already have the underwear."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 9, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Bad Religion has a free live CD coming out.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
thats pretty much the same thing
Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...
by boobs on Mar 9, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not sure how much we've discussed mechanics...
In terms of mechanics, Chapman takes an enormous stride toward the plate and pronates his arm reasonably early; the arm path isn’t long and there’s no violence or other major red flags in the delivery. If he stays healthy, he’s a No. 1 starter, and should be able to come north with the Reds in some role this year if they want him on the big league roster.
Who said/wrote this?
I appreciate the analysis of Chapman’s mechanics but that last part just sounds like headed-for-a-commercial tlak radio gobbledygook:
(Chapman) should be able to come north with the Reds in some role this year if they want him on the big league roster.
That’s kind of like saying that I should be able enjoy some toast if I want to put some bread in a toaster and push the lever down.
"Let's get this movie. We already have the underwear."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 9, 2010 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, where is that from?
I went looking at Driveline Mechanics, and found this, which is based just on photos.
I like how he is still able to get his arm into the vertical position in time to deliver the ball, which will significantly reduce the stress on his elbow and shoulder. The reverse rotation will likely set him up for the occasional oblique strain (think Roy Oswalt), but this would in fact be a good thing, because it would be a result of using the core muscles to powerfully rotate the upper body; in other words using the entire body to throw the ball. Combine it with the prototypical tall-lanky pitcher’s body, it’s no surprise he can throw this hard.
One thing that worries me is the repeatability of his delivery. The very nature of the extreme ‘drop and drive’ style mechanics require a near perfect balance point and footstrike on every pitch, otherwise controlling the ball will be almost impossible. We witnessed Tim Lincecum struggle in his first 2 starts of 2009 for this very reason, and Chapman clearly has this problem if anyone watches the WBC footage. In addition, because of the inclusion of the inverted L, Chapman will always walk a fine line when it comes to his timing, and he could easily gain a timing problem at a later point in his career. Still, i’d sooner take him over someone like Stephen Strasburg in that respect.
So, it seems he throws the ball really hard, but is wild.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
And Baseball Intellect says
much the same. Good mechanics, but poor control. They also note that his arm slot is noticeably different when he’s throwing a breaking ball, and that won’t work against big league hitters.
They think he could be a #1 starter, but is more likely to end up a closer.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
$30 million for a closer
Would be a bargain for us.
by Brendanukkah on Mar 9, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball Intellect
predicted that he would go for $40-60 million, so I guess he’s a bargain.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
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