Short post today before the game thread goes up a little later. Sorry I've been sparse this week, but sometimes life gets in the way. You know how it is.
There are some players that are reasonably easy to project. Take Brandon Phillips, for instance. All of the projections on FanGraphs have him posting between a .322 and .327 on base percentage and between a .434 and .450 slugging percentage. I don't think you'll find many players with tight of a fit across all of the systems.
On the other hand, Jay Bruce is all over the place. His projected OBP ranges from .315 to .351, and his projected slugging ranges from .459 to .539. Obviously a lot of that has to do with Bruce's age and what inputs each of the systems use and how they are weighted.
We've talked a lot this off-season about how important Jay Bruce is to the success of the Reds this season. He looks like the one place in the order where we could see a huge upgrade even without a change in personnel. But it really depends on how he performs.
So what do you think he'll do? Which system do you think is closest to getting it right on Bruce in 2010?
For reference, here are Jay's numbers for the last 2 seasons:
Which projection system is closest to what we'll see from Jay Bruce in 2010?
Bill James (.274/.340/.537) (152 votes)
CHONE (.286/.351/.539) (195 votes)
Marcel (.254/.326/.471) (57 votes)
Fans Scouting (.271/.343/.497) (107 votes)
ZiPS (.251/.315/.459) (39 votes)
PECOTA (.267/.334/.488) (130 votes)
680 total votes