I think you can make an argument that Stubbs is more important than Rolen, but with Rolen’s age and contract, I think it is more imperative that he is successful this year. Stubbs just has to be better than Pattaveras.

IMO, Chapman isn’t important in 2010, but VERY important for 2011 and beyond.

Our offense sucks something awful, but if our pitching improves and enjoys the luxury of the good D behind it, then maybe we have a chance. That being said, I think it’s more important for Cueto or Bailey to have better development in 2010.

We need Cueto to continue to rise to the cream of the crop, and it’d be nice if Bailey followed suit, but I think it’s more important for Bailey to personally build on his last 9 or so starts of 2009. Being that Bailey’s currently at the back of the rotation, I think it’s more important for Cueto to ascend as a TOR SP.

All this typing and babble just to say “Cueto”.

But I really don’t think a big year from Bruce will matter (for anything beyond his personal development) if Bailey and Cueto don’t throw at least 180 innings with an ERA+ of 100-110.

but I think Homer Bailey’s continued progress is really important too. The offense was so weak last year, though, that it needs the most direct improvement. If Bruce could hit for a decent average and supply some power, it would make a huge difference. A little more danger in that lineup for opposing pitching will help quite a bit.

Yeah, the young staff needs to improve and the defense needs to at least repeat last year’s quality, but without a productive Bruce, this team has no hope of scoring very many runs.

return- early and awesome- have big implications for this team as well?

Or do we have the depth that we will be fine without him and his return only makes the big contracts of Harang and Broyo more expendible.

1. This team is pretty thin and cannot afford any long term injuries, especially to any of the starting rotation, Votto, BP, Rolen or CoCo
2. Hernanadez and Hanigan must remain healthy as well – can’t win with Corky
3. By mid season a successful #5 starter has to be discovered/found.
4. The outfield can’t be iffy – Gomes has to play some D, Stubbs is still question mark and if C-Dick is the #4 guy he needs to have his head on straight.
5. Frazier, Miles, Jannish and Nix need to be on the bench with C-Dick. Frazier and Nix for their bats, C-Dick and Jannish for their gloves and Miles because of his versatileVPness.

So that ’s at least 10 things…just for a winning season…

Defensively subbing in Janish in the 7th or 8th inning when we’re winning makes sense EVERY TIME if Janish can perform in the field off the bench.

Of course, it makes a lot more sense if Janish is batting 7 and not 2 after insertion into the lineup. Since he’d have to be 2, I hope Dusty pulls off those crazy double switches when possible to get Janish’s glove on the field late in games.

is funny to say out loud

Let’s not forget that often players far exceed our expectations.

Who would’ve expected Jo-eh’s year last year? Or Gomes? Or Arroyo’s second half complete dominance? (sample size issues and luck work both ways.)

So it’s entirely possible Old Chap is the real deal and is worth 3 WAR this year, same with Bailey. Or what if Bruce completely breaks out and OPSes .950? What if Frazier or Heisey or Wlad get their chance in LF, figure it out, and OPS .850?

Just sayin’, in addition to all the IFs, there are probably at least 1 or 2 pleasant surprises waiting for us this season as well.

(Hooray for ST optimism!)

were built to win in the postseason. In “Baseball Between the Numbers” by Baseball Prospectus, they had a chapter on “the secret sauce,” which is the key elements of teams that win in the postseason. The 1990 Reds scored as one of the best ever in this regard.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. If Bruce doesn’t take a huge leap, that can be made up in other ways.

if he gets hurt, our left side is going to be pretty shaky. we might be able to replace his bat, but that glove and arm are one-of-a-kind. even if he’s tanking at the plate i’ll sleep better knowing his defense isn’t going anywhere. i’d see it as a major step backward if we have to insert francisco or frazier in there.

Seen two at-bats of Jason Heyward, and already in love (He’s on my fantasy baseball team in the minors). First at-bat, showed a good eye and walked. The second at-bat, he rocketed a single to right field.

just stole third base. Dude’s going to be a beast.

I swear, the narrow version looks narrower than it used to.

Maple bats are being banned in the minor leagues. Guinea pigs for the big leagues. They’re also slightly changing the shape of the bats, to make them less likely to break.

Josh Hamilton will miss the exhibition opener and is “out indefinitely” with a bruised shoulder.

Miguel Cabrera says he’s not an alcoholic. He doesn’t drink any more, but he insists he’s not an alcoholic.

he plays every day. Cueto has already proven he can be a MLB SP. Bailey is pretty darn close to proving it—but even so—he’d only be our #4 pitcher. Bruce has not yet proved he deserves to be a starting RF. Not that I’m down on him. I expect great things. But if he continued to put up the same numbers at the plate every year, he would not start in this league for very long.

BaseballHQ (Ron Shandler’s gang) is guessing Coco.

His K/9 is trending way down, K/BB is not good. Last year he had something like 3% of his fly balls go for home runs; most pitchers level out at about 10%. He has always survived on a high strand rate, but if his K-rate goes down much more and his HR/fly rate comes back to normal, he’s not going to be stranding those guys.

Here’s most of the data.

So, just to be a Debbie Downer, I’ll predict that if Coco is as bad as that, he could cancel out any of the above choices doing well.

Mark it down!