Simple Example of the Effect of the Reds Defense
by Slyde on Mar 18, 2010 11:56 AM EDT
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PrintI was just looking through some data and noticed something cool. In 2009, Reds pitchers faced fewer batters with runners on base than they did in 2008. Why is that a big deal? Well, for one, the 2009 pitchers had more walks and hit by pitches (10.3% walk+HBP rate compared to 9.8% in 2008) and fewer strikeouts (17.1% strikeout rate to 19.3% in 2008), which means not only were they putting more men on base, but they were also allowing more balls to be put into play than in the previous year.
And yet they faced just 2785 batters with men on base, compared to 2989 in 2008.That's 200 plate fewer plate appearances with men on during the season, a number that is due almost entirely to improved defense behind pitchers. While 200 PA over a season might not be a huge amount, it's a big deal when you have pitchers that are prone to giving up the long ball.
The Reds do have a few of those types of pitchers to go along with a park that gives up a few of its own too. However, this table below shows how a having a strong defense can even help on HR:
| Year | Bases Empty | Men On | % with Men On |
| 2008 | 121 | 80 | 40% |
| 2009 | 124 | 64 | 34% |
Some of the difference is not strictly because of better defense. Reds pitchers had the highest percentage of flyballs turn into HR in 2008, which is generally considered unlucky more than poor pitching. That number was much more normal in 2009, so that is part of the reason for the decline in home runs allowed. However, there is a connection between facing fewer batters with men on and allowing fewer multi-run home runs. Limiting issues early in the inning can help avoid bigger problems later in the inning.
What's the point of all of this? Well, I think some fans are still trying to understand the significance of defense beyond platitudes like "Defense wins championships" and complex ideas like saying the Reds defense saved 95 more runs in 2009 than 2008. Hopefully this can give you a concrete example of how improved team defense can change the success of the pitcher. It's not simply a matter of getting that specific hitter out, but making the situation easier when facing other hitters later in the inning. Call it the butterfly effect of baseball defense.
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"I was just looking through some data and noticed something cool."
Your nerd card just got renewed for another 8 years :-)
This is cool, though. And good work on the photo caption. LANDO (his real nickname) needs to step up defensively this year.
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
I thought we agreed to call him Tubby.
… anyway, this is the sort of stuff I wanted to learn when I joined RR. I have no idea how you dig up this stuff, so do it anyhow.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
"Tubby" is a stupid nickname
stupid AND dumb.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 18, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Dang
Nice post. This sure beats US History class…
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Nothing beats history
absolutely nothing.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
A cute little earwig, you are.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
cute, cute, cute
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
um ... well, I guess
This particular earwig has a significant other, which could be fun at black-light disco parties, maybe.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
sigh...
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing against History
It’s just that baseball trumps.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
My undergrad is offering History of Baseball this quarter
too bad you can’t transfer Crolfer.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Crap, I would teach that course for free
and charge you an arm and a leg to take it.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
I think they have that in the Honor's College here...
I could be wrong though.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Honor's Colleges are such a joke
If you are in college, why do you need “honor’s” classes?
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I told you, I prefer ska.
Also, that comment was way more asshole-y than intended. Sorry, person-I-was-responding-to.
IAN! I'm on traain!
dont make andro-mash angry
you wont like her when she’s angry!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 18, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Pfff, you should see my sisters, andro-bash, and andro-smash.
IAN! I'm on traain!
by andromache on Mar 18, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ONU has an honor's program
nobody completes it because it is a waste of time.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
at Harvard
65% of the students are in the Honors English program.
Which I guess make that regular English, and the regular English program “English for Dummies.”
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
that's true
Professors are under a lot of pressure to give nothing lower than a B. Because the student’s last name might be Rockefeller.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Exactly why I didn't go to Harvard
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
...and why you chose Yale?
by the finest muffins on Mar 18, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I really watch and enjoy that video too much.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 19, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
my roommate and i rock it to it a few times a week
I think that is why we can live together.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 19, 2010 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I was in the Honors College at MSU.
And it really wasn’t a bad deal. I took some Honors courses that covered more material and at greater difficulty than standard courses. Plus, instead of the general required classes (State called them “integrated studies”) – you could take actual courses in those colleges – like economics or literature.
Just an alternative perspective.
IAN! I'm on traain!
i guess it depends on what you are looking for
i didn’t care at all what I was taking, i just wanted to get done with it as soon as i could.
OU has two baseball history courses
pre-1929 and post-1929
i may take one as an elective next year
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
I know that 1929
Is the spread gate for history.
I guess you have to divide something by two if you want 2 halves.
Baseball is split between THREE eras, IMHO.
Pre-Ruth
Ruth
and anything after 1960.
(arguably a fourth era comes about when the steroids are introduced but that is another topic.)
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
I'd take WWII
If I was going to divide baseball history in half. It coincides with integration and splits the spectrum in nearly equal halves. For thirds, I agree with pre-Ruth if you mean deadball and earlier (1920ish). But why 1960? I’d make it 1969 for the divisional reorganization.
1960 is generally the dividing line
for when baseball expanded beyond its original 16 teams. Actually, 1961 would be the exact year for for actually playing the games.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
By the way
I meant to say in the post that I started looking at this because a friend suggested that the Reds could never win in GABP because the park was too homer friendly. My response was the pitching and defense will ease the effects of the home run nature of the park. This post was an attempt to demonstrate that.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Homer friendly parks
Ballparks tend to change through generations, I believe. Wrigley used to be a haven for the dinger, but it’s not now. I have no idea why the wind doesn’t provide a 15-12 game as often these days, unless it’s something else.
I can’t prove anything there.
I do recall hearing/reading that the first monumental step the Braves took in their long path to success was shoring up their defense, which gave their young arms a chance to pitch past the fifth inning. The results stand on their own merit.
I agree about the defense.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
Some of that reputation might be because parks in general have become more homer friendly
I’m guessing before the new, smaller parks came around, Wrigley looked like a homer haven.
And yes, it is much easier for good young pitching to look like great young pitching when the defense behind them is good. Less chance for them to get themselves into trouble.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Homerville
I laugh when I recall back to the days of Crosley, where I grew up loving the mashers. The 56 team was my first real love. (221 home runs that year but only about 100 errors.)
In any case, the 15-14 games at Wrigley seem in the past, maybe because they play a share more of night games now. I’d have to research that. (not).
I did get the chance to see the BRM play there twice with the wind blowing out. Trust me, it was an amazing sight! One game, the Cubs were up 9-1 in the third and my buddy was ribbing me. I said “it’s early.” We win 13-11. The other was something like 18-10,
Other easy ballparks of the past: Ebbetts Field, the Polo Grounds. (cheesh, that place was scary.)
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
Did some looking into just this
Methodology
Note in the methodology that he uses a centered five year average.
Now, keep in mind that these are just park factors, not HR park factors. Wrigley seems to be notably above average from 1964-ish to 1991-ish.
The reason for the beginning is perhaps tough to place, though night games are a possible culprit. I cannot find data on the number of night games played yearly, for any team but the Cubs.
The end is probably a combination of night games (first night game was in late 1988) and new parks. Camden opened in 1992 and began the stadium construction binge. (Coors was 1995, and ate everyone’s lunch, with an absurd 1.14 PF.) Given the gradual increase in night games, my guess is that the drop off would have been more slower and less severe, had the new parks not opened.
I don't want to hear any weak sh*t from Jason Grilli.
by cherub_daemon on Mar 18, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrigley, could we be talking about long-term atmospheric changes?
by Eastwindquinn on Mar 18, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
global warming
due to extreme Cubs fan flatulence.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
The homer-friendliness of a park
Is probably dependant on the quality of the pitching of the team that plays 81 games a year there.
Before the curse of stastics fell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life, full of merriment and go and informed by fairly good judgement.
-Hilaire Belloc
technically no
sure, one season isn’t enough to determine it definitively, which is why most good park factors use multiple years, but park park factors are calculated by comparing how a team and their opponents do on the road compared to at home. Consistently, the Reds and their opponents have combined for more homers at GABP than on the road.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I did not know that
Thanks for the enlightenment.
Before the curse of stastics fell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life, full of merriment and go and informed by fairly good judgement.
-Hilaire Belloc
This post was an attempt to demonstrate AWESOME.
Nice post! Very interesting and informative.
I wonder if it would be possible to isolate the Janish Effect?
No amount of prosperity is sufficient to eliminate all misfortune, and sloth is impervious to opportunity.
I was kinda hoping PJ would be the starting SS
just to see how that infield would do.
I’m excited to see how the 2 new players on the Cerveceros do as both are at least talked about as being in the running for best defender at their positions.
I don't care how good PJ is denfensively
I hate watching his AB’s. I hated Adam Everett too.
by New Red Machine on Mar 18, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear ya
It would have been a pretty awesome defensive infield though. Add Stubbs and Bruce and someone competent in LF and that lineup (insert defensive cliche here).
Send PJ to the swing doctor! Test case!
It sucks that the reds don't have much wiggle room with hitting
Janish at short is always impressive to watch.
Reds cuts
Optioned Alonso and Bray to AAA,
Jordan Smith and Valiquette to AA,
Assigned Jon Adkins and Josh Anderson to AAA
No surprises there, but I’m a bit relieved that Anderson is officially out of the picture.
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle
Poor Bray is never going to get any MLB service time.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
had surgery last May/June i think
so he should be back full strength by mid-season.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 18, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I am a bit surprised Bray and the union didn't challenge him spending 2009 on the minor league DL
It isn’t like a torn elbow ligament happens in a day. He lost a year of service time because of that, thus delaying arbitration, and free agency, and perhaps effecting his pension. For a young guy like Bray losing one year could cost him a lot of money, especially if he doesn’t have a long career ahead of him.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
What case do they have?
He pitched in 3 games in the minors before surgery. It’s not like he was sent down and immediately put on the DL.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
couldn't they argue that elbow issues like that don't pop up over night?
It could have been an issue in spring training, and even begin in 2008.
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
He missed time last year in Spring Training with shoulder issues
Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman, and Leake. The future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
but he had options, which means the Reds didn't break any rules
If he had been sent down and immediately went on the DL, then maybe they’d have a case. Bray was sent down because he hardly pitched in Spring Training because of health issues, but obviously he tried to pitch through it in Louisville.
Sure, it might have been a dick move by the Reds, but the union wouldn’t have a case for a grievance.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
no case, I bet, or it would have come up.
But in spirit, he felt like an established ML relief pitcher.
I like his stuff, I am not sure he will ever stay healthy.
by Eastwindquinn on Mar 18, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Josh
I do hope this guy was realistic about his career when he signed with the Reds.
The baseball-bat collision is violent and involves large forces which act over a very short time and which compress the ball to a fraction of its normal size. -- Alan M. Nathan
from The Fay
Stats guru Bill James was in the press box passing out his new book Gold Mine.
By his analysis, the Reds had the best defense in the National League last year in terms of Defensive Runs Saved with 52 more than the average NL team.
Arizona and San Francisco tied for second best at 34.
According to the book, "Defensive Runs Saves converts (John) Dewan’s Plus/Minus system to estimate the number of runs saved defensively. Seven other methods measuring various aspects of the defense, such as turning double plays, controlling the running game, handling bunts, and throwing out runners from the outfield are also used in Defensive Runs Saved."
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Great Article
…and something I have been harking on since the Moneyball book came out. Defense is important and statistically undervalued until the last few years, as it became easier to qauntify the value of defense (in terms of runs saved). And it is much less expensive than shelling out top dollar for offense (important though offense still is). It is good to read more articles like this. Congrats on the nerd card renewal, btw.
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