- Paging Dr. Kremchek
Oh noes! The famed "Verducci effect" has tabbed Homer Bailey as one of its 2010 targets. The syndrome predicts doom for 25-and-under pitchers who threw 30+ innings more than their prior season. There are clear selection biases at work here, but still, only 4 out of the 34 pitchers identified by Verducci in the past four seasons made it through the season totally healthy and with a lower ERA.
On Homer Bailey: This is probably the most troubling case on this list, if only because there was no reason to lean so hard on Bailey down the stretch. The Reds finished 13 games out. In his last nine starts, Bailey averaged 112 pitches and was given an extra day of rest only twice even as he far exceeded his previous high in innings. The club kept leaning on him because he was pitching well, but to what end?
The "end" was Homer's long-awaited development, which had finally started to manifest late last year. Hopefully the confidence and experience he gained during the last six weeks of 2009 builds positive momentum for this season.
You can see MLBN's video segment on the Verducci Effect here.
Edinson Volquez was not on Verudicci's List last year, but that didn't prevent a serious elbow injury derailing his season. Volquez talked with Mark Sheldon about his rehab from TJ surggery and his offseason. Volquez is doing some light long-tossing and feels good: "They said I would feel something right here [on the forearm], but I don't feel anything there," Volquez said. "Everything has been going great right now. "I just put it in my mind that I have to take a break to give me the time to be ready to get back to the big leagues. I'm not hurrying right now." .... At this point, Volquez is long tossing for about 12-13 minutes every other day. There has been no discussion yet of when he will work off of a mound again.
Fay reports that there isn't any real news on whether the Reds will sign Gomes. Uncle Walt suggests that they might look for another RHB if they do not. Wladmir Balentien smacks his forehead in disgust.
OMGReds spotted a
'92'72 (edit: dammit) Reds NLCS ring posted on Craigslist. Pedro Borbon's gonna be pissed when he sees someone stole his ring!
Baseballminutia - Crosley Field park factors
Baseballminutia has a cool diagram of the evolution of Crosley Field's dimensions from 1912 - 1968. I had no idea how much it changed over time. In 1912, center and right field were 420 and 400 feet from home. Each decreased by about 30 feet by the late '50s, and from '42-'57 right field was all the way down to 342 feet.
Dayton Dragons News - 2010 Secondbasemen
HT to RL Nation for linking an earlier article in this series by Tom Nichols, the Dragons' announcer. I'm interested in seeing how Henry Rodriguez does this year. The switch-hitting infielder is small, lacks power and doesn't have a great walk rate, but he's fast and makes great contact. Rodriguez enjoyed a very solid 2009 with the Reds Gulf Coast League and later in the Venezuelan Winter League. If you missed it, Doug took a look at Rodriguez in December.
McCoy recently introduced the newly-elected HOFer Andre Dawson at an event in Dayton. Although Dawson was a borderline candidate in many respects, he's clearly a likable guy that had several factors play in his favor when it came time for the voting. One of the lesser-discussed factors is that he was the most visible victim of the owner's collusion in the mid-1980s. If you're not familiar with the story: It was the time of ownership collusion and Dawson wasn’t inundated with offers. So he signed a blank contract with the Cubs, told them to fill in the numbers, "And I’ll stand up to it like a man." They filled in $500,000 (Dawson made $1.2 million the year before with the Expos) and the Cubs acquired an MVP for $500,000.
Rob Neyer - Can Brewers really afford Prince Fielder?
A big part of the Brewers' moderate success during the past three years is attributable to Prince Fielder. Fielder is under contract for 2010 and can be a free agent after next year. There's talk about extending him, especially given the eight-year deal Ryan Braun received last year. The team has yet to make such a deal with Fielder. Clearly, the Brewers are racist or fatist.
Don't forget about the RR Blood Drive!
Always a good idea to donate, and now you have the extra incentive of a chance to win Slyde's forthcoming book on the '90 Reds.