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"Sabermetric" Fantasy Baseball Anyone?

I'm going to run a fantasy baseball league on Yahoo this season and was wondering if anyone here was interested in playing.  Here's the lowdown on what I'm thinking:

  • Head to Head: Points, using the scoring system described in this post (see also below).  Point totals divided by 100 will be roughly equivalent to WAR, unfortunately without the fielding.
  • Up to 20 teams (AL & NL league) depending on interest, enough divisions to have ~5 teams per division.  8 team playoff over the last 3 weeks of the season.
  • Autopick draft based on user-generated draft lists.  I don't have the time for a live draft, unfortunately, and I imagine others have similar constraints.
  • Weekly transactions.  This a) reduces time commitments, b) reduces some exploitation methods, and c) eliminates the need for inning or game caps (though H2H largely solves the cap problems too).
  • Position players: 1 each of C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, Util
  • Pitchers: 4 SP, 3 RP, 1 P
  • 5 Bench, 1 DL

I haven't played fantasy baseball since 1999, but it's time to wade back into the thick of things again.  As I write this, I'm abusing SQL as I try to get my projections ready.  My hope for this league is that it will be a nice balance between active participation (lots) and time commitments (not severe).

Star-divide

Here are the points I'm planning to employ:

Update: This has been changed--the system now tracks wRC instead of WAR.  This eliminates problems where it could be better to let no one play than to bring in the best player you can find to fill a hole left by one of your injured starters.  See this comment for details.

Hitters:

ab -2 
h +6 
2b +3 
3b +5 
hr +8 
sb +2 
cs -4 
bb +3

Pitchers:

IP 2 
H -0.5 
BB -2 
K 1 
ER 0 
HR -3 
2b -0.5 
3b -0.5
SV 2
Hold 1

If you're interested, please feel free to drop me a line here or send me an email (justin at basement-dwellers dot com).  Feel free to also make suggestions to the rules.  I'm somewhat new to this and might be overlooking something.

0 recs  |  Comment 112 comments |

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I'm interested

but I already run a league that has similar scoring in head-to-head format. So, I’ll have to think about it…

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on Feb 12, 2010 10:07 PM EST reply actions  

No worries

Completely understand the need to regulate fantasy involvement.

I’m going to give RR’s first dibs, and then post over at BtB if I still need people.
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 12, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

You can probably count me in.

I’m full on my first Yahoo ID, but I have a second ID specifically for fantasy baseball leagues totalling more than 4. If one of my buddies gets his league running, I’ll have enough motivation to check the 2nd ID enough to field a competitive team. So, yeah, if you get enough players, I’m in.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Feb 12, 2010 10:48 PM EST reply actions  

Sounds good.

I’ll put you down. If we don’t get enough players it won’t happen anyway. :) Currently at 3, with a few more people expressing tentative interest.

Looking forward to it!
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 12, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

BB should = H though... or be closer to it

Because it’s pretty much the same thing in term sof runs..

by Jake Liscow on Feb 12, 2010 11:45 PM EST reply actions  

Breakdown

If you get a walk you get:
BB +3

If you get a single you get:
(AB -2) + (H + 6) = +4

Linear weights for 1b: +0.46
Linear weights for BB: +0.32

Make sense?
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions  

FANTASY

IM IN. SOUNDS VERY INTERESTING. PLEASE INCLUDE ME IF YOU CAN.
THANKS

by bubbaroo on Feb 13, 2010 8:03 AM EST reply actions  

Hi, hello, and welcome

Please tap the button under the “Tab” key next time. :)

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 13, 2010 9:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Great bubbaroo

Thanks for your interest! I have you down. Could you send me an e-mail so I can have a direct way to contact you? You can get my e-mail by clicking on my name.
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm going to give this until Monday

And then I’m going to start advertising at BtB and the recent fantasy bb thread at The Book Blog. So if interested, please reserve your spot this weekend. ;)
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 9:22 AM EST reply actions  

im interested

im in Slyde’s league, but i so thoroughly dominated it last year that i doubt it will be any fun for me. maybe this one will be more competitive :)

by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 13, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions  

I just set up this year's league

you should have an email from me at whatever account you link to your yahoo account.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on Feb 13, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah

got it. im in. i have to defend my 9th place crown.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 13, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Are you doing a RR beer league Slyde?

Is anyone doing one?
Wjere do i sign up for the beer league as I am sabremetrically challenged?

'The secret to chili is you gotta have good mooseburger in there."

Sarah Palin

by Madville on Feb 13, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

You don't like Beer?

Pshaw!

'The secret to chili is you gotta have good mooseburger in there."

Sarah Palin

by Madville on Feb 14, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

the Beer League is for the back of the bus RR'ers

"Life is good....life is good...life is good..life is good" jch

by obc2 on Feb 21, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

So you are starting it when?

Man Thongs - The perfect male skater uni.

by Madville on Feb 21, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Hey, I'll do it.

I'd take a one legged midget over Shayne Graham in a heartbeat. - btcoop71

by ZJiff30 on Feb 13, 2010 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

Thanks!

Glad to hear of your interest. Can you please send me an e-mail so I can have a way to contact you? justin@basement-dwellers.com
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

will do.

I actually sent one already, but it got stuck in my outbox. weird.

I'd take a one legged midget over Shayne Graham in a heartbeat. - btcoop71

by ZJiff30 on Feb 13, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks!

Like I mentioned to a few folks above, please drop me a line so that I have a way to contact you. justin@basement-dwellers.com
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

We are

The scoring system is basically linear weights x 10. Pitchers are evaluated with components. If you take a team’s score and divide by WAR, you’ll essentially have WAR without fielding.
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Email sent

Usually the sabermetric leagues I’ve been in use ratios and non-counting stats, but if this scoring system’s good enough for you, then it’s certainly good enough for me.

by Highlifeman21 on Feb 13, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

you can't use ratios for weekly head-to-head leagues, in my experience

weekly head-to-heads are a crapshoot as it is, when you go head-to-head on ratios for a week, there really is no sound strategy.

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter

by Slyde on Feb 13, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Categories vs. points

My preference is to just do overall points, because this way whatever positive things a player brings to the table increases the overall performance of the team. Category-based competitions always just seem artificial to me.
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Last time I did a true sabermetric league we had 5 categories

For hitters:

K/BB
OPS

For pitchers:

K/BB
GB/FB
WHIP

Pretty fun league, actually

by Highlifeman21 on Feb 13, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

did you have minimum PAs and IPs?

or no bench?

Otherwise, whoever has a good first day benches the team for the rest of the year, for the win.

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on Feb 14, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm in

Emailing you now
d

It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle

by nycredsfan on Feb 13, 2010 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

i am considering it

but i mean i suck at regular fantasy baseball, which i play against other idiots. I would hate to play against an expert…

by justin007000 on Feb 13, 2010 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

Experts

I haven’t played since 1999, so I’m hardly an expert on this kind of thing. I can talk a good game though!
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

although according to my roommates

i’m an idiot for saying Derek Jeter at worst is a bad defense shortstop and at best is a below average shortstop, because he doesn’t make many errors…

by justin007000 on Feb 13, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

i keep saying that

and they respond. Do your stats include the condition on the infield, or the weather, because if they don’t they are worthless. There are little things that can’t be measured by stats, if you played high school sports like we did you would understand.

Also if Jeter is so bad at shortstop why did the Yanks win the world series is another question.

I am also told if the Yankee’s moved Jeter from shortstop to say DH it would cause the rest of the team to suck, because Jeter’s presence at shortstop is a comfort to his team.

If Jeter is so bad why did he win gold gloves?

Why do I see Jeter make webgems?

Do your stats measure their personal lives. Like I mean you were pretty miserable after your fiance dumped you, couldn’t that effect your play. Well if the answer is yes stats are worthless!

Then the argument was moved to the basketball front. One of my roommates made the argument that Lavance Fields is a good 3 point shooter, even though he is bad at it, because if Pitt is down by 2 with the game on the line he can make a buzzer beater shot to win it for Pitt. I asked him but if he only made one out of the seven three point shots he put up, wouldn’t it have been a non-issue if he were 6 for 7. To which he responded, but mental toughness and pressure changes things, and he is more in the zone…

So if you are keeping score, my roommate would rather have somebody who is 1-7 at three point shots, if the only three pointer he made wins the game, rather then 6-7 and when the game by 14 points…

by justin007000 on Feb 13, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

if the Yankees moved Jeter from SS to DH

They would have a pretty light hitter as a DH.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 13, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

i was using that as an example

but i mean i also point out that he hits so well it makes up for his defensive shortcomings. But if he played at another position that is less defense intense he could be even more valuable.

by justin007000 on Feb 13, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

There's a contingent of Yankee fans

who want Jeter to move to center field.

Or was, anyway. It’s probably too late now. But they thought Jeter’s skills were better suited to center field than shortstop.

I really don’t know what’s going to happen to Jeter, now that he’s in the twilight years of his career. He doesn’t have the bat for corner OFer or 1B or DH. So where will they put him?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 13, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Tango has a great article in the THT 2008(?) annual that addresses this

Looks at outs per ball in play with jeter and without jeter for each pitcher he played with, each batter he faced, he parked he played in, etc. It’s all about addressing the specific concerns that one can levy against fielding statistics. Even so, the results are consistent as heck: fewer outs are made with jeter on the field than when other people are on the field.

FWIW, though, I had my baseball class read it and they still just can’t accept that Jeter’s not a fielding god. I think in the end, people just refuse to pay attention to data that doesn’t support their personal beliefs. My “punt” was to introduce them to the Fan Scouting Report, which rates him as average, and leave it at that. :)

Jeter really is a fine player, and is deserving of induction into the Hall of Fame when he goes. He’s a below-average fielder at shortstop, but he’s probably been a fairly average fielder overall (across all positions) for most of his career. And he provided a ton of offense over his time, which is what drives him into the Hall of Fame.
-j
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

you have a baseball class?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 13, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Freshman colloquium. :)

It’s awesome. Monday we’re going to talk about DIPS. :)
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

and i say that he is a great player overall, just he is an over rated defender

but they just can’t get passed the fact that i said he isn’t a great fielder…

But I mean my one roommate who is a Cubs fan thinks Jim Hendry is a great GM…

by justin007000 on Feb 13, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I would like to play

I like the scoring and the 20 team thing sounds interesting.

Now I just need to find some time to pre-rank 400 players.

Why does your league not like catchers?

by Snake the Jake on Feb 13, 2010 8:56 PM EST reply actions  

Sounds good!

I have you down.

The catcher thing was just me being stupid and forgetting to put them down. I’ll fix the original post, but yes, catcher is a position in this league. :)
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

League has been created and initial invites have been sent

I do not yet have e-mails for bubbaroo and kcgard2. If you’re still interested, please drop me a line: justin@basement-dwellers.com

There are seven spots remaining: first come, first served!

Cheers,
Justin

by JinAZ on Feb 13, 2010 10:40 PM EST reply actions  

Tonight I will go through and post a spreadsheet...

…with what each player would have scored in this system based on 2009 statistics. I have no doubt that Pujols will come out on top, but a) I think it’s not as horrific of an imbalance as you fear as there are some other damn good players out there, and b) keep in mind position scarcity. Pujols plays 1B, and so if a team has Pujols but if you get someone like Hanley Ramirez or Chase Utley who does what he does in the middle infield, you might come out ahead if you have an otherwise decent 1B and whoever has Pujols has a crappy SS.
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 14, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

is that what the kids are calling it now?

In that case, I’ve already played with my pre-rankings twice today.

It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle

by nycredsfan on Feb 14, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Totally interested

Me me me. Killer bees

Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent

by The Crushinator on Feb 14, 2010 3:55 PM EST reply actions  

Aphis something or other.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Feb 16, 2010 9:14 AM EST up reply actions  

I posted this with respect to the scoring online, thought I'd repost here for those watching

I put together a spreadsheet that shows our current scoring system’s points for all 2009 players here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t6R6FIkpXQXcxLb6-iPi8 4g&output=html

This is the first time I’ve done this, but the guys at the top were largely not surprises.

However, I’m concerned about the number of players that are showing up as negative contributers. I count 15 players with more than 350 PA’s last season as negative value players. Here’s the position breakdown:
C 5
1B 0
2B 0
3B 2
SS 6
LF 0
CF 1
RF 1

The lack of any recognition of fielding value (position adjustments, fielding runs saved, etc), beyond ability to fill a position slot, really hurts us with SS’s and C’s. In the case of those players on this list, it would be better to plug an injured or demoted AAA player into the lineup than let these guys play. That, to me, doesn’t seem like a fun way to field a fantasy team. Granted, with only 20 teams, folks should be able to find better options. But there’s a lot of guys at the ~0 point level too.

What I’m thinking about doing is adjusting the scoring from the current “replacement-level” scheme to something that more closely resembles an “absolute runs” scheme. So, instead of team point totals for hitters approximating runs above replacement, we could instead have them approximate overall runs scored.

This would be fairly easy to do for hitters. The issue is it will greatly increase hitter point totals, which means a similar adjustment needs to be done for pitchers. I’ll get back to you as soon as possible on this, but I think I can work out something that will make sense and work for us.

Sorry for not noticing this beforehand.
Justin

by JinAZ on Feb 14, 2010 10:50 PM EST reply actions  

Why? You're in Chicago, he's in Phoenix.

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 15, 2010 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Then why is his username J in AZ?

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 15, 2010 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Everyone knows that Phoenix is the only city in Arizona...

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Feb 15, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he's actually in Pennsylvania

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 15, 2010 9:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I used to be in Phoenix, now in PA

…for a while I was going to change the handle, but in the end figured why bother. At some point I’ll probably “come out” entirely and do everything with my real name, though it’s already out there if you know where to look. :)
-j

by JinAZ on Feb 15, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions  

That joke never gets old to me for some reason

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 15, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

TWSS!

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 15, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

what's twitter?

"Life is good....life is good...life is good..life is good" jch

by obc2 on Feb 21, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

We have a new scoring system

I posted this in the league, but in case anyone else out there is thinking of joining but wanted to see how this was going to work, here you go:

Ok, as per my earlier message, there were some problems with the previous scoring system. Most importantly, there were a large number of negative players, which might have often made it a better option to replace an injured starter with, for example, a guy who was not playing MLB at the time than with someone who actually was playing…but just wasn’t very good. That, to me, is not a fun way to play this game.

So, here is the new scoring system that I propose that we should use:

Hitters:
AB -1
H +6
2B +3
3B +6
HR +9
BB +3
SB +2
CS -3

Pitchers
IP +5
K +2
BB -3
HR -13
SV +6
Hold +2

The hitter points, at least, will come close to a player’s actual wRC*10, so it’s grounded in reality. If you like, you can essentially take your team’s hitter point totals, divide by 10, and you’ll have an estimate for how many runs your team would likely have scored had those players actually played together. Neat, right?

Pitcher points…well, I can’t claim they’re as grounded. But pitchers will accumulate comparable totals to hitters, the rankings look intuitive to me, and we’re focusing on things a pitcher can explicitly control (it’s tied to both FIP and innings pitched totals).

Very few players have negative scores in this system—even Willy Taveras!—so it will always be better to have someone playing than no one playing. It will be up to us to find the best replacement we can for our starters when they go down.

I’ve updated the spreadsheet to show 2009 totals for both hitters and pitchers under this scheme. I think the rankings are intuitive and make sense.
http://tinyurl.com/ybhs9el

Unless there are objections, this is the point system that I’d like to use moving forward.

Time to get my working on my draft lists! :)

by JinAZ on Feb 15, 2010 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

Sounds easy enough..

So what do I need to do to sign up?

'The secret to chili is you gotta have good mooseburger in there."

Sarah Palin

by Madville on Feb 16, 2010 2:58 AM EST up reply actions  

email jinaz

his email can be found on the bottom of the page. All you have to do is clique.

by justin007000 on Feb 16, 2010 3:01 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Intentional or not? I love a good mystery.

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 16, 2010 8:51 AM EST up reply actions  

actually that was intentional

i was trying to be witty, claiming that this league is a clique.

I was actually ripping of Alan.

by justin007000 on Feb 16, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I liked it

"They're the ones that gave you the keys, they can’t get upset when you crash the car" -- 'tHan on my being a mod

by jch24 on Feb 16, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I should have left RR after

This post. Even with the spelling errors it demonstrated my intellectual abilities. I should have gone out on top.

by justin007000 on Feb 16, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

TWSS

'The secret to chili is you gotta have good mooseburger in there."

Sarah Palin

by Madville on Feb 16, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Advertising at BtB now.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/2/16/1312618/sabermetric-fantasy-baseball-anyone

We’re up to 18 of 20!

If you have already received an invite e-mail, I’d appreciate it if you would log in and create a team so I know you are still interested. Bubbaroo, if you’re interested, I still need contact info from you so I can send you the league info. If I don’t have that info by mid-week, I may give someone else take your slot.

Cheers,
Justin

by JinAZ on Feb 16, 2010 11:24 AM EST reply actions  

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