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Winter Meetings: Will the Reds attend?

For the Reds blogger or news junkie, these are lean times. With baseball's Winter Meetings upon us, I expected the  "nothing is happening"/"probably nothing will happen" theme to abate, if only momentarily. But just this morning, John Fay dropped a blogpost entitled Jocketty doesn't expect to do much at Winter Meeings. A variation on a theme. Now this isn't at all surprising, given what we've heard all winter. And I don't blame the beat reporters for coming up empty - you can't feast on a half-finished can of Dinty Moore:

Jocketty: That's why we aren't getting involved (John Fay, Dec. 1)

All quiet (Fay, Nov. 29)

Jocketty: Reds may not sign outside FAs (Fay, Nov. 16)

"All is still quiet as far as talks in long-term deals with the arbitration-eligible players." (Fay, Nov. 8)

"Suffice it to say very little is going on." (Fay, Oct. 19)

Either Jocketty is engaged in a fairly extensive and brilliant misinformation campaign, or the Reds are focusing almost solely on shoring up their in-house talent, including singing Votto and Bruce to extensions. But is this where their heads should be, given a handful of very real deficiencies in the roster and what appears to be a reasonable, if modest, amount of payroll flexibility?

Poll
What should the Reds' top priority be this offseason?
Extending Votto and Bruce
413 votes
Acquiring an ace starter
115 votes
A bat for leftfield
148 votes
A shortstop
51 votes
Bench
5 votes
Late-innings relief (may or may not involved dealing Cordero)
34 votes

766 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 329 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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boobs

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

what happened to her toes?

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

How the hell did you notice her toes?

"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 6, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

thought the exact same thing

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I couldn't think of anything.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Did you get all light headed too?

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Images of Ann Marie and Sophia Loren were dancing in my head.

And I’m not talking about the Grumpy Old Men versions, either.

Although, those were still pretty nice…

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 7:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Brewers are shopping lorenzp cain

they want a starting pitcher in return. would you be willing to give up one of our starters within the division for em

by vottomatic on Dec 6, 2010 12:53 PM EST reply actions  

I could see the Reds inquiring

but I doubt they’d make such a deal. To be honest, I’m not sure I’d be happy with him as the long-term option in LF. Not that he’s a bad player, but I think his bat is better suited for CF.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Me either, but he's cheap, and he's not really good enough to demand much back.

It would really depend on who they’d want back, and the answer to that is probably “too much”

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Shiiiiiiiiiiiit

We need their laughable pitching to remain so. No sense in helping them out with it.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, I agree

plus added with nyc’s “too much”, I say pass

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

i just want a high OBP guy whio's faster than a Molina

To hit at the top of the order. I don’t really care what position he plays.

Put Leake in LF and bat him leadoff maybe.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 1:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Heisey?

.367 OBP in the minors, definitely faster than a Molina.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sure he'd do better than that if he played regularly

It’s hard for young players to keep their timing when they don’t play every day.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

yet another reason not to put Alonso on the roster only as a PH

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not in favor of it

I’m just afraid the Reds are.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't.

The only reason Heisey was called up was the emergency created by Dickerson’s injury.

And Dusty loves versatility. Alonso on the bench kills that. I could see him as a LF platoon guy, but not a spare infielder.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

but

Alonso will be out of options after the coming season. I could see the Reds seeing it as fish or cut bait time.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

how so?

He was signed to a big league contract in 2008. Doesn’t that mean he was optioned to the minors during spring training 2009 and 2010?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Signed late in 08, option doesn't count for 09

Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way...
@btcoop71

by btcoop71 on Dec 6, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

interesting

According MLB Trade Rumors:

The clock is ticking on Alonso’s three option years, which will expire after the 2011 season, however it’s worth noting that he’ll qualify for the rare fourth option because his original three will be used before his fifth pro season.

So the option does count, but the Reds get a 4th option on him?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

So he has an option left in 2011 and 2012

He doesn’t have to stick on an MLB roster until 2013

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

that gives us a little bit of breathing room

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

it does

But he hit so well in AAA least year. Seems like kind of a waste to keep him parked down there if that’s really his level of ability (still recovering from that broken hamate, no less).

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

"so well" is a bit of a stretch

though he did turn it on towards the end of the year. I’d love to see some more power out of him, hopefully it’s still just lingering effects from the hamate thing. But I agree that it’s a waste, especially if he continues to hit well. He’s definitely close to “so well”

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

But don't you also agree that it's more of a waste to put him on the MLB roster

for him to only get 200ish PAs all year?

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm just trying

to wrap my head around the report that the Reds expect that Alonso will be on the active roster this spring.

If they were willing to try him in LF, why would they have given up on him so fast in AAA? He played only 17 games there. If they aren’t willing to use him in LF in Louisville, I find it hard to believe they’d do it in Cincinnati.

There’s no other spot on the roster for him. Unless they’re planning to trade Joey Votto, they have to be thinking of him as a part-time player.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with the dilemma,

I just have a very hard time believing they’d do that, knowing how devastating it would be to both his development and his trade value. And given the uncertainty with Votto, both need to remain strong.

FTR, I don’t actually believe he’ll start the year on the club, but if he does, I gotta think it’ll be as Gomes’ platoon partner.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't like that, either

Platoon partner is still a part-time player. And if he’s as slow-footed as they say, he’s not going to be a defensive upgrade on Gomes.

I’m still thinking he’ll be a bench player if he makes the roster.

I’m still hoping they get a real LFer from somewhere.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed that I don't really want that platoon

but to be fair, the LH part of a platoon usually gets 70% of the playing time. So, part time, yes, but that’s a bit misleading.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand that

but I’d really prefer he get to hit against both lefties and righties. I can’t imagine them trying to platoon Bruce or Votto, even though they’re lefties.

If they think Alonso can handle LF 70% if the time, it should be his full-time job. Let Gomes be a pinch-hitter/backup.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed with all of that

which is why I’m skeptical that he’ll start the year in the bigs.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

FWIW

Since I “started” this rumor – I’m skeptical of it too. It made no sense to me either. I wish I had been involved with the original conversation because I would have loudly said, “how the fuck is that gonna work?”

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe

“All hands on deck,” while the Reds have a chance to win it all?

Like using Chapman as a relief pitcher.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

That's a good theory

except Yonder is kind of a liability as a bench guy.

Like you said, it’s tough for young players to keep their timing in a role like that, and he has zero versatility.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

that's true

But maybe they want a power bat off the bench. They really didn’t have anyone who struck fear into a pitcher’s heart to use as a pinch-hitter. Miguel Cairo and Paul Janish may be versatile, but sluggers, they’re not.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

that's very true.

And I guess I’d rather have him than Nix. At least Yonder can take a walk.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Ryan Howard'd

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Yonder

Is votto protection. Votto could be traded after 2011 or 2012.

by bobestes on Dec 6, 2010 9:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

yes

any player that signs an MLB contract after being drafted will get 4 options if he does not stick in the majors before his 5th season.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

That's what I meant

Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way...
@btcoop71

by btcoop71 on Dec 6, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

yep

He gets 4 options because he had less than 5 years of service time when added to the 40-man roster.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I worded this wrong

the blockquote above has it worded right.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

i'd be completely down with heisey

I just don’t see it happening. If they had any faith in him, they wouldn’t have brought back Gomey.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 1:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Josh Willingham. Go.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Can't see that happening.

We need speed and another righty corner OF stiff would be redundant, even if he is a vastly superior hitter to the incumbent.

If it was up to me, I’d swap Gomes for Willingham any day.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

We don't need speed.

We need good hitters. Willingham qualifies.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok, let me clarify

We need good hitters but our manager wants speed.

I’m concerned less with what we should do that with what we are likely to do.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

nah. I really think Walt knows he needs a high-OBP guy at the top of the order

If he was only worried about speed, they’d just make Stubbs the leadoff guy.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Walt doesn't care about OBP

He’s just as old-school as Dusty. That’s why he got fired.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Cause he doesn't care about OBP?

That doesn’t make sense

Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."

by ChiDa on Dec 6, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

is that why they signed Theriot to play SS?

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Touché

Then again, how many SS’s have OBP’s of over .350?

I’m guessing not a whole lot.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

true, but his bat isn't really the problem

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Nothing Theriot does is a problem for us

It’s more like a bonus!

He’s just the kind of guy Dusty likes, so let’s be thankful for dodging (Dodgering?) a bullet.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

haha a fair point

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

He's not a saberphobe

He just doesn’t use it as much.

And OBP is far from sabermetrics.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

This is so wrong

Just because the media didn’t talk about OBP doesn’t mean that it suddenly became valuable when Moneyball hit the stand. Branch Rickey, in 1954, called OBP “the most constructive thing to come into baseball in my memory.” OBP wasn’t non-existent in Moneyball, it was just undervalued.

And if you think that Walt Jocketty doesn’t value OBP because of “the math geeks,” you’re fooling yourself.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The media?

Who’s talking about the media? I’m talking about 100 years of lineups.

It is only in the last 10 years that OBP has been considered as important as AVG and Slugging by the majority of MLB managers and general managers.

If you can convince me or anyone else otherwise, I will be impressed.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm convinced otherwise

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Branch Riickey was one man

his way of doing things was absolutely outside of the norm when he was around.

by kcgard2 on Dec 6, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

but acting as if nobody paid attention to OBP before 10 years ago is just as faulty logic.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Good. Take it wherever it leads....

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sure your tag team is effective

Wherever contrary opinions are found.

I’m a little disgusted and a lot disappointed.

This seems like a great place to discuss the team we love, but I’m seeing now that it is not.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Look, man:

First, I am a salty, often prickly guy. I can even be mean sometimes. But Slyde is the most rational, calm, and mostly patient dude you’ll find on here.

So for you to be insulted by him is just silly and overly sensitive.

Second, you’ve probably figured by now that bringing contrary opinions is fine, but bringing condescending contrary opinions that are unsupported by any factual evidence is typically not. I’d say we have indulged your viewpoints quite a bit to this point, and have tried to counter with real reasons why we differ. Typically that is greeted with stuff like “emphasis on OPB does indeed coincide with the arrival of the math geeks”.

You need to understand that there are a lot of “math geeks” on this blog who try to use it to better understand baseball, so for you to flippantly dismiss it, and, by extension, those who use it, is not going to sit well.

I apologize for my above comment. But don’t expect people to just accept your contrary, often baseless opinions, simply in the name of tolerance and brotherhood.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Slyde:

A calm rational guy with an eye on the neighbor’s lawn mower.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The mower is still running

I haven’t looked recently, but I can hear it. It’s almost been 4 hours. How much gas is in that thing???

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe your neighbor is an inventor

And is demonstrating his perpetual motion machine?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

this is off on so many levels

How do you possibly know what Walt “cares” about? Hell, how does somebody even know what the person they live with “cares” about? Did Rolen and Hernandez both not have career years with OBP this year? Didn’t Walt go get them? Didn’t the Reds lead the NL in OBP this year?

Why you’re taking such offense to someone disagreeing with you on this is mindboggling.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

you're not really serious, are you?

Because if so, well, wow.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 2:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

See

the thing is you act like no one like OBP before 10 years ago. I give you an example. You ignore me and tell me that I have to prove that over 100 years of baseball people didn’t like OBP. That’s a false proposition. Unless I can find 100 quotes from different people, how would I prove anything either way on that?

So, what if I told you that the average OBP in the NL in 1954 was .335 and in the NL in 2010 it was .327. Does that prove it? No because the game has changed in a hundreds of ways that have very little to do with the discussion, and I’d be a jerk to pretend that it did prove my point.

So, excuse me fore being a little annoyed with your response, but you’ve essentially said to me “I don’t believe you and you can’t prove otherwise”

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I SAID MAJORITY

“the thing is you act like no one like OBP before 10 years ago.”

I SAID MAJORITY. THE MAJORITY OF MANAGERS AND F.O. TYPES DID NOT FOCUS ON OBP UNTIL RECENTLY.

I may make unprovable claims but you slam me down as if everything in baseball can be explained by numbers.

“So, excuse me fore being a little annoyed with your response, but you’ve essentially said to me "I don’t believe you and you can’t prove otherwise"

You’re doing the exact same thing to me, yet clearly claim superiority on the issue.

You constantly insinuate that I don’t know the game, and I should thank you for setting me straight? I think not.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he's doing that

But you’re also not “knowing” the game. You’re “feeling” the game. You don’t have any proof (that you’ve offered). Slyde at least has some numbers. Your contention is that the numbers reveal only a partial picture of baseball, and I agree with you. But the numbers are at least something that can be “known.”

by Brendanukkah on Dec 6, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

But see, he's not doing anything remotely similar

He’s trying to give you examples of why he has his view, and you basically respond with, “well, that doesn’t prove anything, I’m still right”

No evidence, no nothing. Just your own confidence in your superior knowledge of things.

Also, “you slam me down as if everything in baseball can be explained by numbers.”

Isn’t this a discussion about numbers? You can’t argue about OBP and then dismiss any quantitative arguments that disagree with you because baseball isn’t “just about numbers”. If that’s true, then don’t enter into arguments about numbers.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

People have been talking about getting on base forever.

by ol Pete on Dec 6, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

That is true

Young kids have been trying to get to first base by any means necessary since the dawn of time.

Prove me wrong!

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Just this morning

my S.O, was talking about a schoolteacher friend who has early teen students and were talking about 2 in the _ and 1 in the _ and

by ol Pete on Dec 6, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

oops

half edited and I decided not to post that, but SBN beat me.

by ol Pete on Dec 6, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Whoah

“I may make unprovable claims but you slam me down as if everything in baseball can be explained by numbers.”

Where have I – me personally – done that?

The only argument I am having with you is against your point that (1) Jocketty is a saberphobe and (2) that OBP had no place in baseball before 10 years ago (or whatever it is exactly you are arguing here).

FWIW, I have been told by two different people in the Reds organization that Jocketty likes numbers, looks at the all the time. But he also talks to scouts and others. He wants information from wherever he can get it. From everything I’ve heard, I think he was fired from the Cardinals for much more than just sabermetrics. I think the Cards were afraid the game was passing Jocketty by.

“You constantly insinuate that I don’t know the game, and I should thank you for setting me straight? I think not.”

I don’t want you to thank me. I want you to discuss this with me, not jump to personal attacks or creating impossible to prove claims. That’s not a discussion. I’m not in competition here to be right. I’m trying to make a point. You’re trying to make a point. I’m trying to counter your points, but I feel like you’re getting upset at me for that.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Let me start again

Back to the origin of this ridiculous argument.

The reasons given for Walt’s firing in St. Louis are well-known to be because he favored traditional views on statistical analysis. That’s not to say he never cared about OBP. I’m saying it’s likely he doesn’t care about it as much as Billy Beane does.

In lineup construction, Baker and Jocketty are certainly more ideologically similar with each other than with the “new wave” of statistical analysis. This is not meant to be inflammatory. It is a simple assertion.

I never said nobody cared about OBP “back in the day”. I’m saying it wasn’t as important to lineup construction today as it was 50 years ago. I can’t prove that, but I am certain it is true. There’s a reason guys like Joe Morgan get prickly when they hear about new methods of analysis. OBP isn’t new, but it’s emphasis certainly is. Again, I have no proof of this, but I would bet my bottom dollar that if you get 100 young guys and 100 old timers in a room, they will argue about what’s more important.

I did not mean to be inflammatory, and I apologize for flying off the handle.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

The public reasons for firing are often very different than the private ones

but that’s not really germane to the discussion.

And FWW, Oakland finished below the AL average in OBP last season. Beane doesn’t over-value OBP. He tries to find things that can make his team successful that other teams don’t properly value. In 2001, that was OBP, but that does not mean that OBP has never been valued. It is a misreading of Moneyball (by a large number of people, not you) to think that it was about making OBP a central tenant of baseball success. It was about finding market inefficiencies. At the time of the book that was a market inefficiency. It is true that that is no longer the case though. However, I don’t believe it is true that that was the case 30 or 50 years ago. Unfortunately, like I said earlier, that’s pretty much impossible to prove as a single item.

In lineup construction, Baker and Jocketty are certainly more ideologically similar with each other than with the "new wave" of statistical analysis.

The thing is, and this is my point, OBP is not “new wave.” Perhaps the discussion of the actual statistic is more modern, but teams have always worked to get guys on base and prevent outs. Maybe Bob Howsam wasn’t out to build a team who led the league year after year in the OBP statistic, but he did, and it wasn’t just by chance. Maybe he didn’t look specifically at OBP, but he was looking at the components that make it up and trying to improve on those things.

Also, in 2004, Dusty Baker said this:
"If he’s in the top one or two [of the order], the most important stats are runs scored and on-base percentage."

I think Dusty knows the value of OBP. He just hasn’t really had a good OBP guy that wasn’t slow or had a lot of power to stick there. I think Willingham could be the type of player to fit in there for Dusty.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

The public reasons for firing are often very different than the private ones

And your evidence for this is…?

I know that part wasn’t germane to the discussion so you can have a free pass.

Would Dusty lead off with a guy like Rickey Henderson? Sure, but he never had one. It must be a coincidence that most of his teams have had exactly the same leadoff guy.

Darren Lewis
Fred Lewis
Wily Taveras
Marvin Benard
Dave Martinez
Tom Goodwin

Why don’t you go ahead and look up their positions and collective OBP’s and tell me Dusty doesn’t have preferences that run counter to your quote.

I was hoping my conciliatory tone in the last message would cause you to let it go, but since you seem to insist on “winning” the argument, we’d better continue.

Now, look at the leadoff men that Jocketty has acquired since becoming a general manager (not including Henderson in Oakland). I’ll help you with the career OBP’s on this one.

Willie McGee .333
Royce Clayton .312
Delino Deshields .352
Edgar Renteria .344
Fernando Vina .348
Patterson
Taveras

Hmm… seems like some similarities there. Outfielders and middle infielders with speed who are no threat to clog the bases with excessive walks.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll let it go

but seriously, I’m being completely honest that I’m just trying to have a discussion. Don’t take things so damn personally.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

That surprises me.

by ol Pete on Dec 6, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too

Here’s the graph though for non-pitchers since 1954. Surprisingly, the rate has been pretty steady with a slight downward trend mainly because the graph starts at a high point.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, pal

The fact that the walk rate hasn’t changed much does nothing to support or counter my argument.

The analysis of statistics is changing, not the statistics themselves. Just because Billy Beane and Theo Epstein like high OBP doesn’t mean that there are more Hatterbergs and Custs in MLB than there used to be. They’re just distributed differently.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

We all get your point.

Now it’s just making my head hurt and my “z” finger blister.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Let me clarify

We don’t need speed but our manager wants speed. And we do need a lefty OF.

I’m less concerned with what I think we should do than I am with what we are likely to do.

Most importantly, Gomes has some measure of job security. Not once has the FO mentioned targeting LF for improvement.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions  

Again, we don't need a lefty, per se.

We need guys who can hit, period. Willingham qualifies.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd wager that I'd like someone who can play D, also.

Which would imply speed.

The high OBP flycatcher is my favorite candidate for LF. I just dont know who he is.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly. Who is available?

And Willingham isn’t terrible in left. Probably just slightly below average, as opposed to hide your kids, hide your wife terrible.

Plus, you have to think being in a much tinier OF in GABP would help him.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Is Ellsbury actually available, or do we just kinda say he is?

I’d also ironically take Chris Dickerson as the indie pick.

Chris Coghlan doesn’t have the D, but he’d be a great leadoff candidate.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

they haven't targeted

LF specifically but I’m pretty sure Walt is aware of the lack of production. He’s not just gunna come out and say Gomes sucked.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Except it wasn't a lack of production.

It was league average production. And far above average hitting with RISP.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, if you want to compare Gomes' offensive production to that of starting pitchers, SS, CF, etc.

then yes, it was ‘league average’. But for his position, he was decidedly below average.

Average NL OPS this season was .771
Gomes was .758

Then factor in his well below average defense and you have a well below average LFer, and the easiest position on the field to upgrade significantly.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry, meant "Average NL OPS for leftfielders was .771"

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

No, Jonny's hair was definitely better than Trump's.

Also, I’ll take the 571 PAs from the full season (that include your numbers) than 185 cherry picked PAs to gauge his worth and production.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

5 months of .246/.282/.395

.677 OPS, for 5 months. From your brutal fielding LFer.

Also, unless you think his hitting with RISP luck was a repeatable skill (obviously I don’t), then it doesn’t really trump anything.

by kcgard2 on Dec 6, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm only being devil's advocate here

From the F.O.’s point of view, they have a cheap LF who provided a lot of highlights for a playoff team and NEAR league average production. They are fully aware of his faults.

It is frustrating that no one here will even consider intangible qualities when looking at a player’s worth.

I don’t want him as my starting LF, but we could certainly do worse than keep a guy who drove in 86 runs.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Gomes!

Have a shirt and just everything!

by Brendanukkah on Dec 6, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

But the problem with intangible qualities is that you can make them mean whatever the hell you want.

I say OCab was a cancer in the clubhouse, and without him Brandon Phillips would’ve OPSed over .800. Prove me wrong.

Conversely, for you to use Gomes’ “intangibles” as a means of arguing his value is completely unarguable. You can’t prove what they’re worth, nor can I. What can be supported is his production on the field.

Also, if you go back and read prior threads, most people are fine with him being re-signed, mostly because of the intangibles. But just because he’s in the clubhouse doesn’t mean he needs to start every day in LF.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

So?

Do my “feelings” mean nothing because they are not backed up by facts? Even when they prove to be correct?

I would love to discuss why you (hypothetically) think OCab was a cancer and that BP would have been better without him. I would love to give a contrary or supporting opinion that someone else wants to chime in on. But that’s not how it works around here.

I love baseball and I love the Reds. I have a vast amount of knowledge on the subject, both factual and theoretical. I’m tired of being beat up on for seeing what other people think.

I feel like Branch Rickey.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Fine. My opinion is that Gomes "intangibles" mean dick to the performance of the team

I’d rather have good clubhouse guys who can play. And if I have to choose between a dick who is good at baseball and a great guy who is meh, I’ll take the dick every time (ravenriley’d)

But please, if you want to talk about intangibles, don’t mention a single number, because the two don’t really have anything to do with one another.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, also.

I don’t really think OCab was a cancer. I think he’s a terrible shortstop. (An opinion, btw, that is not supported by defensive metrics. But my eyes tell me he looks like an Olsen twin out there)

And finally, just a word of advice: Don’t be so quick to tell people how “vast” your knowledge of baseball is. There are a lot of really, really smart baseball people on this blog (not including myself in that) and humility is typically the best route to take.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

My claim of my baseball knowledge was not to toot my own horn or to cry woe is me, but to imply that we’re all qualified to discuss baseball in this forum.

Lately it has seemed like more of an exclusive club.

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank you for that

I will endeavor to take your advice and bide my time until I have been around long enough for my feelings to be proven correct, as they usually are.

AND THEN I WILL UNLEASH THE EMO DOGS OF WAR!!!

by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Dec 6, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

someone say Emo Dog?

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I will endeavor to take your advice and bide my time until I have been around long enough for my feelings to be proven correct, as they usually are.

haha, this made me laugh. I’ll just say that your feelings dont need time to be proven, they need evidence to be proven. even if youre right in the future, if you aren’t able to give good evidence now on why you feel that way, your victory in any argument is trivial or lucky at best. I never felt like it meant much if I “had a feeling” something would come true and does.

and from one arrogant a-hole to another, Id try to keep the “I’m usually right” stuff to a minimum (unless used as a well-timed joke).

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

green'd

Well put, You described very well why this is my reds blog. I have a few stock issues around here that I bring out once in a while only to get buried all over again (anyone wanna talk about Chappy being a closer?) also, I loved me some Hopper.

by Eastwindquinn on Dec 6, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Honest question:

If Chapman could be as effective in the rotation as Cueto was this year, would you still want him as the closer?

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I would

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Honest answer with no evidence to back it up.

I feel that Chapman has the potential to be a HOF closer, I also feel like he can be a 5 time all-star as a starter. So I choose the former.

by Eastwindquinn on Dec 6, 2010 7:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll take the latter

because it betters the Reds chances at a WS title.

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

and what an elitist clique it is!

"Red Reporter - An elitist clique full of like-minded douchebags." - BK

by ZJiff30 on Dec 6, 2010 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

"My opinion is that Gomes "intangibles" mean dick to the performance of the team"

I disagree. I think Gomes had a positive, but impossible-to-measure, influence on the clubhouse.

"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 6, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

See St Louis, 2010

For the effect of a shitty clubhouse.

A baseball season is a long time to be miserable.

by bobestes on Dec 6, 2010 10:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Sure, but that's why I have come around on Dusty.

I’d attribute the difference in clubhouses to the difference between TLR and Dusty, more than anything else.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, what drives me crazy about this is that there's no recognition that we've already made a bunch of other choices based on good-clubhouse-influence.

I can’t see how angering Gomes and losing OCab is going to send us into the depths of Chris Carpenter madness (that’s sort of like medieval madness, but with more carpent (sorry for the cheap dig, st. louis fans))

I believe that Scott Rolen and Dusty Baker have enough intangibles to save us from that terrible fate.

"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube

by andromache on Dec 7, 2010 9:02 AM EST up reply actions  

UGH

why haven’t I learned yet? NEVER EVER get into a twitter argument with @MisterRedlegs

Good god is that person insufferably ignorant and stubborn.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 1:53 PM EST reply actions  

I should follow your lead

He really is infuriating

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

why did you all follow him to begin with? He never has anything useful or insightful to say.

Ever.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I was wondering that myself

I do think he occasionally has some good scoops, but really, anything decent will be re-tweeted, so you don’t actually have to be personally aggravated by him to get the goods.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I followed him in the first place largely because you vouched for him

He also had a much different way of looking at things that I liked, so I thought it would be a good exercise to not close off different views. Then it turned out his views were stupid and he’s an asshole.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 6, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

That's the spirit!

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

this is 100% how I feel/felt

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

sure, blame it on me...

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I heard about MRL at some point, clicked the profile, and wuickly decided not to follow him

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I remember arguing with him a number of times on fay's blog

not surprised to hear he’s till a smug arrogant bastard

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Damnit Dusty
stevehenson333: Dusty Baker: inclined to keep Chapman in the pen. [via Twitter]

stevehenson333: More Dusty: eventually chapman has no. 1 starter stuff but “he has No. 1 bullpen stuff too.”. [via Twitter]

I really hope Walt trumps Dusty on this one. If he doesn’t make the top 5, send him to AAA.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:43 PM EST reply actions  

Chapman

From Erardi this weekend:

Chapman said he’ll fill whatever role the Reds want for him this year – starting or short relief – but that right now he feels most comfortable in relief.

“Yes, I would like to have another year as a reliever,” said Chapman, through interpreter Tomas Vera. “I really would like to (have that).”

He agreed with his questioner’s analogy to the New York Yankees’ Phil Hughes getting his feet wet in the bullpen for a full season before being switched back to starter.

The 24-year-old Hughes was 18-8 last year after making 44 appearances out of the bullpen in 2009 (3 saves, 3.03 ERA, 96 strikeouts in 86 innings).

Chapman was asked what was his favorite part of last season.

“The best part was when I started doing the closing job in Triple-A,” he said, noting that he didn’t like being taken out of the game as a starter. “I like to finish the game.”

He doesn’t see himself as Mariano Rivera-type, however, closing out games for the Reds over the long term.

“I believe that in the future I will be a starter and I would like to be a starter,” he said. “If they want me to start (in spring training, and over the course of the season), I will do that.”

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

That makes me feel a bit better.

I’m still nervous he’ll never start again. And that’s fine with some of you, but not with me.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

again, you shouldn't take things too personally

I think I might be in the minority in wanting to see Chapman nowhere near the Reds bullpen. You’ll find a lot of kindred spirits if your view is for him to be a pen guy in 2011.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he should be the closer for the next ten years....

Just to piss Justin off.

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

nope, he's our 8th inning guy

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

i can't wait until we have a bullpen of:

Leake, Bailey, and Chapman to cover 7-9, and Wood as the left handed specialist.

But we have a rotation of the next decades Paul Wilson’s.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Seconded

it’ll be 2002 in perpetuity! Great times.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

We must all have a martyr complex then

Because I definitely feel like the majority of people would rather see him as the future closer.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

No likey Chapman in pen.

"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 6, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I as well, also

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the Phil Hughes example is instructive

Chapman could still make some spot starts this season in the inevitable event of an injury and then stretch things out in winter ball next offseason. That’s not to undersell the experience he could get with pacing himself, game-planning etc. as a starter in AAA, but how many more AAA starts does he need vs. the opportunity to face big league hitters more than once every five days and have Bryan Price guide him toward becoming a starter sometime in late 2011/early 2012?

I still think it’s a questionable move, but I hope they’re leveraging it properly – which could include considering Chapman as the closer and demoting/trading Cordero and/or saving the money earmarked for Rhodes. I’d like to see Rhodes return, but is they might be able to put that money to better effect.

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 6, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

He didn't put it in the article

but Erardi said that Mario Soto told him that Chapman has 4 quality pitches, including one that other teams don’t know about. That was news to me.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Wowie zowie

I wonder if it’s an eephus. It’s stuff like this that make it inconceivable he won’t be tried in the starting rotation sometime in the next year. I think he’ll even get a short in ST, just like last year. But I don’t see a spot for him just yet. As far as I’m concerned, he and Leake are the odd men out until a trade, injury or mid-season re-assessment.

Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 6, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

OH MY GOD HE PLAYS SHORT TOO??!

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

105 MPH GYROBALL!!!!!

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

That. Would. Be. Awesome.

In seriousness, given his association with Soto, one has to be the change up. What could the 4th be? Curve? Splitter/Cutter/2 Seam/Some other type of moving fastball?

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd place my bets on either a splitter or a cutter

but I could see it being a curve. With ya on at least one being a change up.

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think a change up is that much of a secret

We already knew he was working on one, but that it just wasn’t major league ready. So FB/Slider/Change I would hope it’s a splitter (especially if his change up is only average) or a cutter.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess this is my issue with it, specifically to Chapman

And I’m entering territory where I’m a bit ignorant, so BF or others who know the situation better, feel free to chime in. But,

It seems to me that Chappies 2 big issues are command and mastery of a 3rd (or 4th) pitch. He’ll never use those, or learn how to effectively leverage those, in the bullpen.

A guy like Hughes, OTOH, seemed to have a better mastery of all of his pitches, and better control, when he moved to the pen. In other words, he was much more prepared to be a starter than Chapman, so the transition back to the rotation was much more smooth. It just seems inevitable that whenever they decide to make Chapman a starter again, it’s going to involve months back in AAA working stuff out. Which, to me, makes it likely it’ll never happen, because his perceived value in the pen will be so high.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Watch it, ass blood.

by -ManBearPig on Dec 6, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree that Phil Phranchise's situation is different

He knew how to be a starter when he was called up. He took a no-hitter into the 7th inning in only his second game (it ended when he pulled his hamstring).

Chapman seems to have trouble pacing himself through a game. When I saw him in Scranton, he started out slow, reached a peak after 2-3 innings, then fell off a cliff, with his velocity dropping so quickly some thought he was injured. (He wasn’t. Just tired, apparently.) He’s not going to learn what he needs to learn in the pen.

He’s also a different kind of pitcher than Hughes, who’s a Mike Mussina-like control guy, not a fireballer. Joba Chamberlain is more like Chapman, IMO (clocked at 99 mph in his Yankees debut, with a 87 mph slider), and many think the Yanks ruined him by putting him in the pen.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

You didn't make me feel better. I was hoping I was wrong :-)

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

the Paul O'Neil Punt?

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I would guess a splitter

with as big as his hands probably are it would probably be easier for him to learn that pitch than another one

by vottomatic on Dec 6, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

...or even a forkball.

"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 6, 2010 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Reds wanted to do something similiar to what they did last year

that being beginning the year as a starter and shifting to the pen for the latter part of the season, I could be ok with that. Number one reason is that I want him as a starter long-term, but an even better reason is that if the Reds still see him as a starter even if they place him in the pen next season, he still needs to be building his innings. I’ll be pretty pissed if they dont have him starting for at least part of the year next year, because in my mind that would be the end to the “chapman as a starter” question, because they’d need to build his innings all over again.

It also gives us another starter option if there are multiple injuries (and possibly a much better option than Lecure or Maloney). God it would be such a waste of talent if they relegate him to the pen, and also would be a massive waste of money to invest so much in a guy they just use for one inning during the years where similar guys are cheap.

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Fangraphs ran a piece of Chapman

the main argument was that while Chapman may be a useful reliever the Reds would at best break even with his contract. If he is a quality starter they will come out ahead.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

either way, they've got him, and he's going to be valuable as shit either way.

We’ll get production from him, and he still won’t cost as much as we’ve paid Cordero.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 7:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree, I think he should start in AAA

but how dumb is that quote from Dusty where he says “He’s got #1 starter stuff. But he’s got #1 bullpen stuff too” ?? It’s Yogi Berra all over again. Are there #1 starters who wouldn’t have #1 bullpen stuff? I hope he was just being tongue-in-cheek, but if not…ruh roh.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

this is where Baker and I differ immensely

He will go with what a player feels he wants to do. say, for example, letting Homer stay in those games for 115-120 pitches late in a lost season (and I still wonder if thats where that shoulder fatigue came from, I’m not of the “dusty ruins arms” ilk, but I’m just sayin’) and seeing those comments above (and I remember hearing something similar last yr from Sweet) makes me think that Dusty has it in his mind that he wants to do what the player feels he wants to do. I think it holds Dusty back a little from being a fantastic manager, as he’s not good at checking egos, though that could also be argued as one of his strengths.

I’d take a much harder stance on getting players to maximize their talent and be doing what I want them to be doing, I dont really see that from Baker.

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

i reread the story from Harang's extended relief apperance

Dusty was set to pinch hit for Harang the first time he came to bat, but Harang said he wanted to stay in the game, and Dusty said “ok”.

I don’t think Dusty puts pressure on his starting pitchers to throw a ton of pitches as much as he just trusts their word too much.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

yep

I think thats exactly the reason we’ve seen the arm injuries we have from his guys over the years, but I do credit him for being fairly good about it since he’s been with the Reds. I’m still pissed about how he handled Bailey two years ago, but it’s not something I get too worked up over.

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

this also explain

why Prior, Wood, and Harang have never said a single derogatory thing about Dusty, as he let them do what they wanted.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

"Are there #1 starters who wouldn’t have #1 bullpen stuff? "

Yes, warm up time, quality of your stretch, mentality, and so on can make a great starter into a poor reliever.

by Eastwindquinn on Dec 6, 2010 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

thats Lowe

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

but that's not what he's referring to

I take “stuff” to refer to pure pitching ability. Not conditional abilities (like the stuff things you mention)

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Baker on Votto:
Baker: Votto told me he wants to stay. He just wasn’t ready to say he wants to stay the rest of life.


Per Fya on twitter.

by ashersky on Dec 6, 2010 3:06 PM EST reply actions  

i want him to still be playing baseball in Cincinnati when he is 90!

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

careful, I saw that movie, and you don't really want that.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Dec 6, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

How about Desmond & greinke?

If the Nats wanna trade everybody, get Ian Desmond for just a lil bit and trade anyone not named Mesoraco, chappy, Bruce, Votto, or Wood for Greinke. Problems solved

by bringbackthemayor on Dec 6, 2010 3:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Desmond is intriguing

I’d like to see what Cozart can do, though.

So what did we decide on the Willingham thing?

When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

by poojols on Dec 6, 2010 4:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

That we want him. (that's what I've decided, anyway)

Desmond is tricky, because he could be awesome, but he was decidedly un-awesome this year. That’s fine, but I’m afraid the price to get him will be too high for a guy who’s far from a sure thing.

It’d be kind of like if the Reds wanted to trade Heisey, but they were asking for 2 really good prospects in return. There’s a chance he’d be worth that, but it’s not likely. (I know, I know, imperfect analogy)

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Willingham, and I think he's certainly an upgrade,

but he wouldn’t be my first choice. I think it’s pretty evident at this point that Gomes is going nowhere. Whether he’s the full-fledged starter or just the RH portion of a platoon, we’ve had him around and committed a decent amount of money and effort to him. Willingham is better, but he’s better at a lot of the things that are Gomes’ “strengths” too. I’d rather get a defensive stud who may have less pop, but has better on base skills (meaning getting on AND stealing.)

Also, touching on the idea from above (GlennBraggs’, I think) about trying to find a good fit for a Dusty lineup because you know what his tendencies are, I think Ellsbury’s the better fit because he’s more of the “ideal” player Dusty’s used to. If we went out and got Willingham, I don’t think he’d see a single AB in the top 2 spots in the lineup regardless of the fact he’s a great OBP guy. Ellsbury would be up there each and every day (well, every day he’s not hurt that is.)

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

No, he's definitely not my first choice either. Justin Upton is :-)

And I understand the issue with him not fitting “Dusty’s tendencies” but it’s not like he’s a statue. And he had a 15% BB rate last year. Fif. Teen. Per. Cent. That’s Votto-esque.

I like Ellsbury too, but he’s significantly more risky. He’s had one average year, one very good one, and one terrible one (last year) that was marred by injury. For a guy who’s primary weapon is speed, any kind of significant injury history is troublesome. Also, I’d bet he’ll be way more expensive to acquire since he’s got 3 years of team control left, compared to just 1 for Willingham.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions  

No idea. And I would guess they wouldn't even consider one with his injury and performance history

I’m guessing whomever he plays for this season will just do a one year deal to see if he can bounce back.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 7, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh thank god

the lawnmower finally died. After listening to it run for nearly five hours, it sounds almost silent in here now.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 3:46 PM EST reply actions  

I can't wait until I see you tweet at 0330

“Why is fucking shit ass hell is that lawnmower running again?!?!?!?”

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Went with Ace starter in the poll

In my eyes thats the best path to a chance at the WS next season.
Next is Left feild, thats the best path to repeating as division champs
Next is SS, given our in-house options I’d say that only an upgrade to help our chances at competing for the division
The other roster options really only help us repeat a winning season.

Extending Jay and Joey are somewhere in the middle, but not a “priority” really for me, since we’ll have plenty of chances to extend them the next few years. I would hope it was a focus, but not exactly a number one priority.

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 6:35 PM EST reply actions  

I know who Branch Rickey is

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:06 PM EST reply actions  

FTR

I think Chappie will be in the ’pen this year, and be damned good at it.

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:16 PM EST reply actions  

And I will continue to shoot you evil looks across cyberspace

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Papelbon seems to have worked out well for Boston....

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

if i were a Boston fan i'd be a bit let down

mostly because you have no idea what he could have done in the rotation, and you never will.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly. What if Papelbon had turned into Josh Beckett, yet you are only getting 70 IP a year from him?

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

and FTR, I am fine if it turns out Chapman can't hack it as a starter but puts up sub-2.00 ERAs in the pen

But I think it is the height of lunacy to not find out if he can start first.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

we aren't so different NYC.

i even once played in a jazz band.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

same here

and somehow those days of playing musical instruments has led me to listening to music like this.

man, what happened?

by pack_fan on Dec 6, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Just got done with my middle school jazz concert

rockin’ some Birdland. Apart from my drummer with no sense of time, it was killing.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

that's racist

I’m late, so the effectiveness is lessened severely

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

If I were a Boston fan I'd get over it somehow while wearing my "WS Champions" hat and jacket

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

just because they won a world series

doesn’t mean they played everyone in their most optimal role, you know that as well as I do.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

And what exactly does this Reds team need more, starting pitching or a badass at the back of the 'pen?

“Optimal” goes both ways, ya know.

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Games 1-3 of the NLDS tells me they need

“Badass Starting Pitching”

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I might have been a bit unclear.....by "this Reds team" I mean 2011

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

And by "badass starting pitching"

I mean more than Cueto.

Point is, this rotation is built for the regular season, not the playoffs. A badass reliever is pretty easy to get at the trade deadline, if need be. As we saw this season with Lee, it’s much harder to get a high impact starter.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess it comes down to which you value more, results right now or possible results down the road

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Or to be more accurate,

Britney Spears now, or possibly Adriana Lima later.

I’ll wait, thanks.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Tough to argue with that comparison

smdh

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah seriously.

From what I can tell, Britney does quite a good job relieving.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

But too many innings early in her career really did a number on her

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

(slow clap)

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

OK, so here's a question.

Suppose Walt isn’t bluffing, and he is genuinely planning on doing nothing from an outside-the-organization perspective. He’ll re-up with Cairo, perhaps bring back Daynce Mix, and focus resources on his arb-eligibles.

Where are we as a team? What kind of lineup are we looking for? Is BP going to bat leadoff, and can Rolen still be counted on to be cleanup/Vottoprotecto? How many questions am I going to ask even though I premised with just one?

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 7:46 PM EST reply actions  

If that happens

I think they are a sub-85 win team

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2010 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

This is really interesting.

Wasn’t 2011 supposed to be this team’s year to shine? And now, unless they do something this offseason, they’ll likely hover around .500? So what happened? Have some players not lived up to projections yet? Was that “2011 will be so great” projection always based on bringing in outside help in, say, left field? Is it just that there are small missing pieces that haven’t been filled yet (bench help, mostly) which wouldn’t have been a factor in that previous talk but could hamstring a team?

I’m sure it’s clear that I don’t follow these things quite so closely or carefully as most of you, so I’m genuinely asking… what happened to “wait until 2011”?

by the finest muffins on Dec 6, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

This was kind of my idea.

I think the 2010 team did precisely what the “wait until 2011” team was supposed to do…surprise and break through.

What I’m asking is not if we have enough talent to do it again (I think we do), but do we need to add pieces to be able to thrive with the target on our backs? Can we reasonably expect to stay on top of the mountain now that we’re “defending NL Central champs?”

I’ll throw it out there that I’m a Bengals fan, too, which is partially behind this question session based upon their year last year and their suck-fest this year.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

for me

The players have not quite developed as I hoped. I suppose I was overly optimistic.

Bruce has been great, but I thought he’d be better. I still think he’ll be better than Votto eventually, but it looks like it’s not yet. I thought Cozart would be the starting SS by 2011. That doesn’t look likely, and if it does happen, it probably won’t be a good thing. I didn’t see Harang’s collapse coming at all. I’ve lost faith in Coco as well. Leake was a pleasant surprise, but I think the rest of the league has figured him out. Bailey might still be the ace we were all hoping he’d be, but it’s probably not going to be in 2011.

That said…I think the Reds could probably do at least as well as they did this year.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

i didn't really know if Harang could regain his 2007 form

but i was shocked that he went from serviceable to suck.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

if Bruce can put up an OPS around .900 or 1.000

he will be more valuable than Votto simply because he plays right field.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, he definitely has the ability to match Votto's power and AVG numbers

I don’t think he’ll ever reach the BB totals to get his OBP north of .400, but if Votto ever experiences a BABIP dip (which is entirely possible), his numbers could drop a bit.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 10:33 PM EST up reply actions  

we said that last year

and his BABIP dropped from 2009 to 2010 and his slash line got better. Votto and Arroyo should hang out because they defy logic!

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

His slash line got better because he walked more and had a shit ton more power

That’s not defying logic. That’s getting better. Obviously Votto has a very good BABIP skill, but the question is how good. In over 1800 MLB PAs he has a .353 BABIP, so I’m willing to bet that’s about where his true talent lies. But the reason he was an MVP and keeps getting better is this:

BB rate:
2008-10% 2009-13% 2010-14%

ISO:
2008-.209 2009-.245 2010-.276

He has consistently walked more and hit for more power, which has in turn boosted his slash line. So the question for 2011 isn’t what his BABIP will do, but what will his BB rate and ISO do. I’m skeptical that he’ll hit for much more power, simply because a .276 ISO already puts him in the top 10 in the bigs. It’s hard to have much more power than he already does. I definitely could see the BB rate going up a bit, though, especially now that he’s the MVP and both umps and pitchers will respect him more.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 7, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

and he can hit to all fields

which helps his BABIP a bit too, as there’s really no field positioning or shifts you can apply to try to counter him. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved a bit this year.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 7, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it could

Votto hit more homers this year, but Bruce hit more “no doubters” – by a lot. He’s one of the most powerful hitters in the league, when measured by that standard. He’s got Dunn-like power.

And Bruce is only 23, still years from his peak.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

that last line

is what makes it so sweet.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

so when he peaks he will be expensive!

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

not if we extend him first

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

he could be expensive mediocrity!

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

or affordable awesomeness!

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

i don't trust glass half full people.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 11:23 PM EST up reply actions  

aww shucks stranger, I'm sure you'll come around!

and in case I don’t see ya, good afternoon, good evening, and good night!

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think that's inevitable (although entirely possible)

I mean, Gomes, BP, SS position, Votto are all going likely do about what they did in 2010.

Rolen and the catchers will likely regress. If Stubbs and/or Bruce falters, the offense could be in trouble, but if either or both maintain or break out, the offense should be OK.

The pen is the pen. No more or less volatile than any other team. To me it comes down to the rotation, and if there’s any reason for optimism, it’s in the potential improvement of Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Wood, and Bailey. Again, no definites there, but it’s far from a sure thing that they’d lose that many more games.

Having said all that, I’d feel much better with a legit bat in LF.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I think

it comes down to what the Cards do. They crashed and burned at the end of the season (except against the Reds). The question is whether we can count on them to do it again.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's my take.

Carpenter’s old and getting older. Pujols may be in his last year, barring a $200 million investment. Franklin’s about to retire. Rasmus has had clashes and is reportedly on the block. La Assrussa and Duncan have been rumored to be leaving for years now. Their farm system isn’t exactly stocked with talent.

Combine all of that with the signing of Berkman to a loaded but one-year contract, and it really looks like they’re in it to win it in 2011 since they’re not exactly in position to “grow” a team over the next 2-3 years.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

so you are saying we could see a Cardinals rebuidling process?

I kind of like to believe the 2010 Cardinals are like the 2009 Cubs.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I think its one of their pressing concerns, yeah.

That’s not to say they can’t go out and win 100 games next year, because they certainly can. Berkman can rebound, forming the best 3-4-5 combo in the NL with Pujols and Holliday. Garcia can prove to be no fluke and they could have Wainwright and a healthy Carpenter to be dominant.

But those aren’t pieces to create a long run. Carp’s what, 35? 36? Berkman’s looking to be a 1B again somewhere with a rebound season.

Given how the Reds have positioned their roster, I think the Cards may well make a serious push this year and then begin to rebuild a bit going forward (Holliday aside, obviously.) Doesn’t that make a bit of sense?

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm not fighting you

i have said for a while that I think we are in a good position simply because we are peaking, as the Cardinals window is closing, the Cubs is closed, and the Brewers and Astros are trying to regain traction.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

ohh yeah, not saying you're fighting me at all

I’m just thinking out loud, hoping I’m not babbling…which I certainly have been known to do sometimes.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, it doesn't look good over there

I wonder if Houston will prove to be a dark horse.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 6, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

no

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

eh. Who do they have?

An aging and increasingly sucktastic Carlos Lee. That’s about it.

I just read today that their new, “top” young player Brett Wallace needs more time in AAA after sucking hard for them in 2010.

Apart from Wandy they really have no pitching, and possibly the worst farm system in baseball. They are truly a mess.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

they kind of remind me of the 2005 Reds

a few nice pieces, but no up coming talent, and limited starting pitching.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Myers had a good year

He’s also only 30, which surprises me. Wandy is older than that

"Those fellas make some good points," Baker said. "They're profane as hell, and they're probably gay, but they make some good points."

Dusty Baker on RR

by DTFH91 on Dec 7, 2010 4:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Hunter Pence says hello

as probably their best player. Bud Norris is OK – could be as good as Volquez next year IMO. Myers is good, so they have a reasonable top-3 at least. If Chris Johnson is for real, he had a good season last year.

The outlook isn’t good, but they aren’t barren in ML talent. They still aren’t the Pirates, so they will always have the consolation of not being dead last.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Norris doesn't have Volquez stuff though, does he?

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 7, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

average FB velocity is about 94

same as Volquez. The quality of secondary pitches, I am not sure. Volquez’ secondary stuff isn’t that great simply because he has little command of it. Norris has better control and equal strikeout rates though, so he’s got good stuff, and was a good prospect.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Volquez' change up is world-class

his command of the FB and CH arent that great, but the stuff is legit.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 7, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I know his changeup is great from a stuff standpoint

but if he doesn’t get results with it, it doesn’t really matter if the problem is stuff or command. This is why I think Bud Norris has comparable stuff, because he knows how to effectively use it, even if it is not as good in a vacuum.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Norris basically only has a FB

So guys tend to sit on it. He definitely doesn’t have the stuff of Volquez

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 7, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

His slider is his most effective pitch

and he pitched pretty well last year, even compared to Volquez, if his stuff is far inferior.

My original comment was as much an indictment of Volquez as it was praise for Norris. I’d say split right down the middle even.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The only spot I see offensive improvement coming is RF

I see regressions at C, SS, 3B, and to be honest, we should expect some fall-off from Votto.

And none of that is taking into account injuries, which the Reds were very fortunate not to suffer a debilitating injury in 2010.

I think the offense will score at least 50 fewer runs. I don’t know if the pitching and defense will oblige and prevent 50 fewer.

Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!

by Slyde on Dec 7, 2010 7:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I see regressions from C and 3B, although if Meso comes up and hits for power, the C regression could be soft

Reds SS hit OPSed .681 last year. I don’t think it’s going to be much, if any, worse than that this year. Plus, Janish’s defense should make up for some of the difference.

Injuries are an issue, but the Reds seem uniquely positioned to weather that, since they have MLB ready (or very near) players at pretty much every position.

And if they can figure out a way to not have Gomes hit against righties, the LF numbers could improve as well.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 7, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, and I agree that Votto won't likely match this year's success

but I’m hopeful he only falls off a little bit.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 7, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

50 is a pretty huge hit

I think we’ll score 25-30 fewer, and hopefully the young pitching continues to mature to offset it. As long as we don’t have END playing much time at 3B, the defense should be better as well, or at least as good.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Answers.

Below the Cardinals, fighting the Brewers for second place. Probably about the same as last year. Most likely. He will, whether he can or not. Four.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Dec 6, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

About those Cardinals...

I think they’re going to be going almost “all-in” this year. Their GM acknowledged that they’re over their expected payroll after the Berkman signing, and I really think they did that just in case the Pujols negotiations get out of hand. They’ll be doing everything they can to win this year, and Walt’s faced with the decision of playing counter to them for this one season vs. keeping the 2-3 year plan in place to whup ass consistently.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Good point.

And, if nothing else, you have to respect Walt for bullishly sticking to plan thus far.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Props to Walt.

He’s probably had multiple chances to deal from a surplus of young, high-draft pick, desirable players for “veterans,” and to this point he’s only gone out and got Rolen…and for all intents and purposes, spending $24 million/Stewart/Roenicke for an .860 OPS, gold glove, and giving me a chance to cheer on the Reds in the playoffs seems so, so totally worth it.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 6, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Holy Hell, Harang got $4 million and a mutual option?

Dude’s agent needs a raise.

"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs

by jch24 on Dec 6, 2010 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

$3-$4M doesn't sound too out of line

It isn’t a great deal of money, and it is only one guaranteed year. The Padres need pitching and $4M for a mediocre starter, hoping to make a rebound to above average, isn’t that out of line.

I think it is just as likely for Harang to rebound to his 2009 production (which was average) as it is for him to repeat his 2010 numbers.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

But seriously, a dude coming off the suck that was his 2010, and the "meh" that was his 2009, getting $4 mil?

That’s steep. Fay says the Reds assumed he’d get a minor league deal somewhere.

see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka

by nycredsfan on Dec 6, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

For whatever it is worth

fangraphs claims Harang’s 2010 is worth $3.8M.

Aside from that mediocre to bad starting pitching is worth a lot. Especially if the pitcher in question had a somewhat recent (is 2007 recent) run of success.

John Smotlz was giving $5.5M guaranteed for 2009, he was a 42 year old man a year removed from reconstructive shoulder surgery. There was no guarantee that John Smoltz would pitch at all in 2009, much less well.

Jeff Suppan the definition of league average mediocrity was given a 4 year $40,000M contract in 2007.

Randy Wolf, who is entering his mid 30s, and is pretty mediocre, was given 28M over three guaranteed years.

Look at Bronson’s new contract.

Aaron Harang may be done, he may be toast. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if his days as an effective big league starter are over. But I wouldn’t be surprised if has a little something left in the tank, as his velocity is still there. A new team, new perspective, and new pitching coach may go a long way towards helping Harang.

Given how much teams over pay for known mediocrity, $4M for a guy who just 3 years ago was one of the top pitchers in baseball, doesn’t have any major arm issues, still has his velocity, and is in his early 30s, just doesn’t seem like that crazy of an investment.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."

-President Andrew Jackson

by justin007000 on Dec 6, 2010 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

not to mention a new, pitcher-friendly park

I know we’ve talked ad nauseum about how most of the HRs he gave up “would’ve been out in Petco too” but still.

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 6, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Remember when Votto hit those two bombs in Petco?

Those made me really happy.

"Those fellas make some good points," Baker said. "They're profane as hell, and they're probably gay, but they make some good points."

Dusty Baker on RR

by DTFH91 on Dec 7, 2010 4:00 AM EST up reply actions  

i sure do

but Votto makes me really happy most of the time

Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"

by UncleWeez on Dec 7, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude, Soupcan makes mad bank

Ten billion a year? You must be rounding up.

On a related note, Harang is an all-time favorite of mine. Big lumpy dude, workhorse. I’d love to see him rebound. A little part of me hopes he whoops up on the Reds just once. And then SD’s bullpen implodes so the Reds still win.

by OHSnap on Dec 7, 2010 3:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Do you realize how unlikely both of those events occurring is?

and in the same game?

Best of luck to Aaron though. Absolute best of luck. I hope he pulls out a 4-win season or something, and gets a couple Cy Young votes.

by kcgard2 on Dec 7, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

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