Winter Meetings: Will the Reds attend?

This one.

We need good hitters. Willingham qualifies.

And Willingham isn’t terrible in left. Probably just slightly below average, as opposed to hide your kids, hide your wife terrible.

Plus, you have to think being in a much tinier OF in GABP would help him.

then yes, it was ‘league average’. But for his position, he was decidedly below average.

Average NL OPS this season was .771
Gomes was .758

Then factor in his well below average defense and you have a well below average LFer, and the easiest position on the field to upgrade significantly.

Ever.

Chapman could still make some spot starts this season in the inevitable event of an injury and then stretch things out in winter ball next offseason. That’s not to undersell the experience he could get with pacing himself, game-planning etc. as a starter in AAA, but how many more AAA starts does he need vs. the opportunity to face big league hitters more than once every five days and have Bryan Price guide him toward becoming a starter sometime in late 2011/early 2012?

I still think it’s a questionable move, but I hope they’re leveraging it properly – which could include considering Chapman as the closer and demoting/trading Cordero and/or saving the money earmarked for Rhodes. I’d like to see Rhodes return, but is they might be able to put that money to better effect.

the main argument was that while Chapman may be a useful reliever the Reds would at best break even with his contract. If he is a quality starter they will come out ahead.

Dusty was set to pinch hit for Harang the first time he came to bat, but Harang said he wanted to stay in the game, and Dusty said “ok”.

I don’t think Dusty puts pressure on his starting pitchers to throw a ton of pitches as much as he just trusts their word too much.

I take “stuff” to refer to pure pitching ability. Not conditional abilities (like the stuff things you mention)

but he wouldn’t be my first choice. I think it’s pretty evident at this point that Gomes is going nowhere. Whether he’s the full-fledged starter or just the RH portion of a platoon, we’ve had him around and committed a decent amount of money and effort to him. Willingham is better, but he’s better at a lot of the things that are Gomes’ “strengths” too. I’d rather get a defensive stud who may have less pop, but has better on base skills (meaning getting on AND stealing.)

Also, touching on the idea from above (GlennBraggs’, I think) about trying to find a good fit for a Dusty lineup because you know what his tendencies are, I think Ellsbury’s the better fit because he’s more of the “ideal” player Dusty’s used to. If we went out and got Willingham, I don’t think he’d see a single AB in the top 2 spots in the lineup regardless of the fact he’s a great OBP guy. Ellsbury would be up there each and every day (well, every day he’s not hurt that is.)

mostly because you have no idea what he could have done in the rotation, and you never will.

I think the 2010 team did precisely what the “wait until 2011” team was supposed to do…surprise and break through.

What I’m asking is not if we have enough talent to do it again (I think we do), but do we need to add pieces to be able to thrive with the target on our backs? Can we reasonably expect to stay on top of the mountain now that we’re “defending NL Central champs?”

I’ll throw it out there that I’m a Bengals fan, too, which is partially behind this question session based upon their year last year and their suck-fest this year.

The players have not quite developed as I hoped. I suppose I was overly optimistic.

Bruce has been great, but I thought he’d be better. I still think he’ll be better than Votto eventually, but it looks like it’s not yet. I thought Cozart would be the starting SS by 2011. That doesn’t look likely, and if it does happen, it probably won’t be a good thing. I didn’t see Harang’s collapse coming at all. I’ve lost faith in Coco as well. Leake was a pleasant surprise, but I think the rest of the league has figured him out. Bailey might still be the ace we were all hoping he’d be, but it’s probably not going to be in 2011.

That said…I think the Reds could probably do at least as well as they did this year.

it comes down to what the Cards do. They crashed and burned at the end of the season (except against the Reds). The question is whether we can count on them to do it again.

I see regressions at C, SS, 3B, and to be honest, we should expect some fall-off from Votto.

And none of that is taking into account injuries, which the Reds were very fortunate not to suffer a debilitating injury in 2010.

I think the offense will score at least 50 fewer runs. I don’t know if the pitching and defense will oblige and prevent 50 fewer.

And, if nothing else, you have to respect Walt for bullishly sticking to plan thus far.

fangraphs claims Harang’s 2010 is worth $3.8M.

Aside from that mediocre to bad starting pitching is worth a lot. Especially if the pitcher in question had a somewhat recent (is 2007 recent) run of success.

John Smotlz was giving $5.5M guaranteed for 2009, he was a 42 year old man a year removed from reconstructive shoulder surgery. There was no guarantee that John Smoltz would pitch at all in 2009, much less well.

Jeff Suppan the definition of league average mediocrity was given a 4 year $40,000M contract in 2007.

Randy Wolf, who is entering his mid 30s, and is pretty mediocre, was given 28M over three guaranteed years.

Look at Bronson’s new contract.

Aaron Harang may be done, he may be toast. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if his days as an effective big league starter are over. But I wouldn’t be surprised if has a little something left in the tank, as his velocity is still there. A new team, new perspective, and new pitching coach may go a long way towards helping Harang.

Given how much teams over pay for known mediocrity, $4M for a guy who just 3 years ago was one of the top pitchers in baseball, doesn’t have any major arm issues, still has his velocity, and is in his early 30s, just doesn’t seem like that crazy of an investment.