Is Bronson Arroyo worth 3 years and $35 million?

’Cause this is pretty much how I see it.

Even if he gives up playing the guitar and signing autographs…he’s getting to the age where I wouldn’t count on him never missing a start any more.

Walt, clearly, knows a little more about baseball economics and performance trends than we do here on this lil blog.

I dont mind it, I just read an article that the Reds won’t be in the FA market but if they were to make a move during the winter meetings, it would be via trade. So Walt says.

And a little side note, Harangatang is about to sign with the Padres. I think its funny because the Pads fans are all for it, they think he will return to his “ace” form.

For me 3 years is perfect.

if the Reds didn’t have Cueto, Baliey, Volquez, Leake, Wood, LeCure, Maloney and Boxberger.

Like I got the big extension he got going into 2007, the Reds were pretty pitching poor in the short and long term at that time, but I don’t really get this.

Scrabbles doesn’t like Arroyo. After a few drinks, I decidedly don’t like your opinion.

Hope he has more luck than me. It just occurred to me as I was contemplating whether old-man Arroyo had 3 more good years in him that old-man Arroyo is younger than I am.

Dammit.

3.92 ERA, 209 IP, FIP of 4.5. I guess Bill James model thinks that Arroyo will continue to out pitch his peripherals. I like to think of Arroyo as the anti-Harang.

I am not trying to start controversy, but I would like to know if he admitted to taking substances that might contain steroids or act as a precursor for steroids? Because I remember reading an article mentioning this. Either way I really don’t like this extension because of the reasons the article mentioned.

In the last 30 years, 10 pitchers have thrown 7 consecutive seasons of 200 IP or more. Seven have done it 8 straight years. Four have done it nine straight. 200 IP is an arbitrary cutoff and does not necessarily mean that a player who only gets 190 IP is worthless, but a large portion of Arroyo’s value is built into him being an innings eater. If he drops to 170 or less innings, his value is likely dropping considerably more than a pitcher like Volquez, who could be dominant in fewer innings and give himself more value.

To me, this contract is a bet that he can keep up the innings eating. I trust Walt to have made the right decision, but history shows us that it’s not that easy. I have a fear that the last year of the deal will feel a lot like the last year of Harang’s deal, with us wishing that the money could go somewhere else.

and there is a lot of appreciation for Jocketty thanks to a number of moves he made that worked out, but as someone who followed him closedly for 10 years+ believe me – he is a dinosaur and he will do insane things that will wreck your team. He once gave Mark Mulder all our free agent money after his arm fell off in a desperate double-down on the disastrous Mulder-Haren trade. Don’t let 2009-2010 fool you. Start the Fire Jocketty campaign now.

in 2007 when Harang and Arroyo signed similar contracts in I think the span of a week, who thought that in 2010 Arroyo would be the one getting the big extension while Harang is trying to rebuild his career with a 1 year deal?

I think Arroyo is more brains than talent when he’s pitching, and I think we still need a veteran starter for another year or two before we can kind of hand over the reigns to Cueto/Volquez/Bailey/whoever as the vet guys. Seems to me like having Wood, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Leake, Chapman, Maloney, etc vying for the five spots might be the best use of money/talent, but I think we saw last year that team chemistry really does exist, and is pretty hard to account for statistically. Perhaps having a guy like Arroyo around is good for these young guys. (Much like Cordero in the bullpen)

That if all of our kids do well next year, some team will offer us value for Arroyo. And really, isn’t that the definition of a good deal? We get nothing for him after next year, or we get something for him after next year. Rocket science, this is not.

Still, I’d be a lot happier if the third year was an option year. We may end up in a situation where we can’t afford to keep him for 2012, because after that he’ll be a 10/5 player and his value may drop. Having 2013 as an option year would mean that 2012 would be reasonably safe.

But who knows- sometimes the deals aren’t reported right the first time. Maybe it’ll turn out that 2013 is an option year. In that case, this is an excellent deal and I’m very happy they did it.

UC Mascot cited for disorderly conduct.

Otherwise, the deal is pretty much market value for league average (which is what I figure he’s good for over the next three years). Given the Reds’ relative surplus of young pitching, I probably would have picked up the $11.2 mm option and spent the rest of the money on an extension for Votto. That $24 mm over the last two years of the contract would have gone a long way towards the 7 years-$75 mm or $85 mm he would probably want.

That being said, plenty of pitchers can pitch one league average season, but few pitchers can put together a string of three straight league average seasons. The only thing that makes the deal a good one is if you put a premium on reliability and predictability.

For a starting pitcher, it seems, there are two basic stats to measure how good they are. ERA and IP.

Innings Arroyo is obviously among the tops in all of MLB since 2006.

Era, I would guess he is probably above the mean ERA for starting MLB pitchers since 2006.

Lastly, his ability at the plate is obviously above your average SP. His ability in the field seems above most SP’s I’ve seen.

How all this adds up to an “Average SP” is baffling.