Votto Extension
by badenjr on Dec 14, 2010 12:58 PM EST
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I doubt this post will be well received, but I don't believe signing Votto to an extension is a prudent move right now. I'm sure many of you will disagree, but I've given this some thought and can support my position. Before I do, let me say that giving Bruce the extension he got makes all the sense in the world, and I'm behind that 100%. Like many of the rest of the Red Reporter community, I'm not thrilled with the Arroyo and Cairo deals, but ultimately think they do little (if any) harm to the team's prospect for success going forward. I point this out just to make it clear that I tend to think similarly to most of you on these matters as a general rule.
Now, for the reasons I think signing Votto to an extension right now is a bad idea. First, the timing couldn't be worse. The signing of Bruce was brilliant. I suspect he'll break out in a big way this year, and the Reds will reap the benefits for years to come. Not so with Votto. He's already broken out; they're a year too late. By offering him an extension now, the Reds would be saying that they expect Votto to perform at a comparable level for each year of the contract. I like Votto and definitely think he is the Reds best player, but to expect him to be an MVP candidate for each of the next 4, 5, or 6 years is too much to expect. For every Albert Pujols who can maintain that level of performance consistently from year to year, there are a bunch of Alfonso Sorianos - guys who put together a great year at just the right time to acquire a big contract that becomes an albatross to the team. I don't expect Votto to be a flop, but at what the Reds would have to pay him now, he'd have to be a 5-6 win player every season. I can't say I really expect that.
Second, I don't see why the Reds can't wait and face the same decision next year. There are a bunch of reasons why this makes sense. For one, if Votto performs to the same standard he set this year, you feel a whole lot better about his ability to be an MVP-type player every year. You've just reduced the likelihood that the contract would be a colossal blunder that would hamper the organization for years. If Votto performs poorly, he's coming off a down year and could be extended at a lower salary.
A second reason to wait a year is that it gives the team a year to try Yonder Alonso out in the outfield (assuming they don't trade him first). The Reds will get to see how Alonso glove plays out there, but they'll also get to see how close his bat really is to replacing Votto's production. I'm sure the answer right now is "not close", but by the end of the year, who knows. After next year, the team will really need to make a decision on Alonso, and waiting to extend Votto keeps the team's options open.
The final reason I suggest waiting another year is simply the money required to make it happen. Votto would likely get $8-10 Million this year through arbitration or a one-year deal. Fay estimated that it would take $53 million to sign him to a 4-year extension. I suspect that number would be closer to $60-70 million at this point, but that's just a guess. If Votto's true talent level warrants $25 million per year (which, he was a 7-win MVP this year, so that's still conservative), then his arbitration years would pay $10, $15, and $20 million (following the typical Fangraphs 40/60/80 assumption), followed by $25 million for each year thereafter. That's $70 million over 4 years, and more in line with what I expect. Fast forward to next year. After he gets $10 million in arbitration this year, could he be signed for $60 million for three years? It sounds like a lot of money that way, but it is the same thing as locking him up for four years now. And there's a good chance that it would take less than $60 million next year to lock him up for those three years.
Add it all up, and I think the thing for the Reds to do is wait a year for the Votto extension.
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It's definitely a tough call
I think that if the price is right, go for it, but there’s almost no way that the price is right.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Right
I think Votto is waiting until next year regardless of what the Reds offer. Gonzo, Pujols, and Fielder will all presumably be getting new deals in the interim, so the market for elite 1Bs could look very different 12 months from now.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 14, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Burn him!
I disagree, though I see your points. The reason that the timing is good now is because Votto hasn’t collected the big payday yet. All he’s made is his signing bonus and the league minimum for three plus years (maybe $2M). He’ll get something nice in arbitration, but he can really set him and his family up now if he wants to agree to a discounted but long-term deal. Last year would’ve been better but I can understand why the team was hesitant then.
Salary inflation also looks like it’s returned. Signing him next year, even if he does slightly worse, will likely cost more. I’d also be surprised if he agreed to a three-year deal next year, since he could get much more if he just waits out his arbitration years.
It’s disappointing that they weren’t able to agree to something this year, but it shouldn’t change this team’s MO. We’re finally at the point where we can expect to contend now. We have the defending MVP for another three years – hopefully we make them count.
Also, this was a very good fanpost. I would hope that everyone understands that dissenting opinions aren’t shouted down, only the trollish, mean-spirited and the obviously unsubstantiated ones.
agreed. I don't really agree with all the points, but they are well made and compelling
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I dunno...
First, you do make some good points, especially about the cost. I think the Reds really need to consider what Ryan Howard has made when looking at Votto; the arbitrator certainly will. And yea, last year would have been the ideal time to sign him long-term (hindsight being what it is).
On the other hand, the only reason to sign Votto to a long-term deal is to save money. If Votto’s agent plays hardball (and I think he will, as he practices for his real prize next off-season), I hope Jockety just waits him out.
By offering him an extension now, the Reds would be saying that they expect Votto to perform at a comparable level for each year of the contract.
This is only true if they offer him a contract that reflects this, which would be stupid – ARod’s last contract and APoo’s next are the only ones that should pay like you expect the player to be MVP.
Votto’s a good enough player that the Reds shouldn’t consider who might be behind him on the depth chart (and frankly, Alonso hasn’t shown himself to be that special yet). If they think they can save money over the length of the contract, they should offer it; if they don’t, they should wait him out.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Forgot about the Howard comparison...
I should have included that. Howard got a huge arbitration award after his MVP, and I’m sure that Votto would as well. The scary thing is that a good agent would also try to use the Howard extension against the Reds. That was a terrible extension, and Votto looks to be a much better player than Howard. I don’t think the Howard contract would be a deciding factor in anything, but it can’t help.
Sign him.
Some of you might remember me, some not. No matter.
If it was about the money, I’d have a different notion here.
This is about Votto, the face of baseball. He’s the man the Reds can market to the chicks who like T-shirts and stuff. This is less about talent than substance, and Votto has plenty of both.
As an aside, I heard an off the wall that suggested a deal that goes like this:
Greinke to the Rangers, Heisey, Alonzo and 2 putnabls to KC. Michael Young and cash back to the Redlegs.
If that had any legs at all, it would follow that the Reds are ready to offer Joey something that sticks to his ribs. The word was to not unload Yonder until that.
I don’t buy rumors much but this one sounds intriguing.
(and sometimes dissenting opinions are shouted down, fwiw)
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
?
And play Young where – SS? He hasn’t played there at all the past 2 years, and despite the Gold Glove was average at best when he did. To me, it would take a ton of money – dude’s owed $48M over the next 3 years, and the Reds would be giving up 1 MLB ready cost-controlled player and 1 who should soon be ready.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
I didn't say I liked the deal
Just that I found it intriguing. Rumors are always fun. I shoot them all down for the same reason you just did, but it’s conversation. Moving Greinke is still the buzz on the boards.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Shooting the messenger and all that
I understand.
However, “intriguing” at least means you’d consider it. Unless there’s a crapload of money coming Cinci’s way, it would actually hurt because it would severely limit the Reds’ other moves (with the caveat that $80M is all the money there is).
If I’m the Royals, I’d move Greinke – someone will severely overpay, especially the Cliff Lee losers. I think he’s a solid #2, but someone will panic and be blinded by his ’09 stats.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Consider it?
I would “consider” any trade for any player. Trades are a whole lot more tricky than just plucking somebody off the FA wire and overpaying.
I do like Heisey a lot more than maybe the public does. Alonzo seems like a man out of place, not his fault. Then again, I am a Stubbs fan and am really excited to see what Sappelt can bring in.
Greinke trade will require somebody to sell the farm, not just the horse. I think he’s Aaron Harang in a different uniform.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Also
I realize this is generally off the topic. My interest in connecting the two was that any chat about dealing Alonzo does relate to the team’s need for a first baseman.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Greinke will end up a Yankee at this point, whether he likes it or not
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
Yanks can take the gamble
He can go 13-12 with them and they will still finish in the playoffs.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Yep, and they can afford to overpay
Must be nice to not need a minor league system.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
KC thinks it has a prized possession
Kinda like the water rights on the eastern side of the Great Wall of China.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
by johnu1 on Dec 14, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They might.
Seems like he’s the only real legitimate ace available right now with Lee gone.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
legit ace?
He was in 2009, as was Aaron Harang in … what 08? Greinke would seem to be an ace, but he is currently the best pitcher on the worst team in the American League.
KC seems to be able to convince everyone they have a gem that they will unload for your grandchildren’s heritage.
Um … OK, let’s talk.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
He's definitely an ace
His K and BB rates are up there with the best, although the Ks were down a bit this year. But he induced a ton more grounders. And he’s a virtual lock to give you over 200 innings. It’s not his fault he has one of the worst defenses in the majors playing behind him.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
KC should ask for the world
No one is going to shoot them; someone might say “yes”.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Oh, yeah
I whole-heartedly agree with the KC strategy here and I am sure Greinke is lovin’ it to the hilt. But the comments I’ve seen suggesting there’s a “panic” now … he’s the last one left, so buy before midnight tonight.
I find that amusing.
Johan Santana, anyone?
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I'm a big fan of the phrase "lovin' it to the hilt"
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
speaking of overpaying
I bought my meds today and picked up a Christmas card for my gal-pal, checked out and … the fucking “X-mas” card cost EIGHT dollars. I was too pissed at myself to put it back. I just mailed it, cost me TWO stamps to boot.
Crap, I ought to own a baseball team.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Dunno about that. He can block a trade to them.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
his fragile mental status won't handle NY on a regular basis
by Highlifeman21 on Dec 17, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
all of those words have meaning, individually
and yet when put together, it sounds like “PHBBBBBBBTTTTTTTTTTTTT”
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
by Cy Schourek on Dec 17, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
dunno if it's true or not
But the Yankees are definitely worried that it is.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I doubt it, but ywss to say that.
Say, I came across this while trying to learn if Jay Bruce actually owned that suit or just rented it from the guy in Covington.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
The delivery guy what brung us our division title
by Brendanukkah on Dec 14, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Tym once pitched for my RailCats
We were quite proud of him for having made the majors.
The look on his face right after the shot is worth another 61 million buckaroo bonzais.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
didn't he give up Bonds' record breaker, too?
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 14, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
either him or Al Downing.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Welcome back dude
Did that skin thicken up yet? ;)
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
I think I can adapt.
My lungs got worse so I have to plan to retire in the spring. That tends to suck.
But I will have some chances maybe to get down to the GASP and see our heroes.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Let me know, I'll meet you and buy you a beer
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
It really blows generally
to be stuck here in NW Indiana and having all this love and gomble-plus over my Redlegs and have everyone say, “well, what about them Hawks?”
Screw hockey.
But the Chicken Fuc Cubs are still amusing.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
And another thing
Dissenting opinions aren’t sometimes shouted down sir, they’re ALWAYS shouted down. Unless you’ve been here for a while, then they go uncommented on.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
Well I for one will tend to agree with everybody
You weasel-fucks … I would really like to be part of the group hug.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Here's the thing
Disagree all you want, just don’t get overly defensive when someone comes at you like an angry monkey because you’ve disparaged the image of their #1 guy in their mind. We all have our ideas and our favorite guys and we tend to get (overly) defensive when someone says things we don’t like about them. It’s not personal toward you, it’s personal to the person arguing with you.
At the end of the day, we’re all just morons with time to kill arguing about the nuances of millionaires who happen to be operating a business involving or playing a game near to our heart. We’re all going to get emotional and say stupid things from time to time. It happens because we care. Kind of like familial arguments. If you ever want to see this in action check the threads where a STL fan shows up and trolls someone or all of us. The most unlikely of allies emerge.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
Oh, you mean we are supposed to circle the wagons?
That’s why I left the board. I found that superior to getting into a continued barrage that couldn’t be controlled. So my apparent “stomping off in disgust” was more “stomping off before I wrote something that would regret even longer.”
But I get it on the STL fans.
Anybody remember this one?
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I tried to forget
But my point stands. Disagree. Hell, write something offensive. Get warned. I’ll be the first to take up for you if I think you’ve been mistreated by the hivemind.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
My position generally
Disagreement is fine. I usually try to avoid condemning the person who makes a comment. Or the comment itself.
Rather than say “that comment was stupid,” it’s preferable to say “on the other hand.”
I see way too much “that comment was stupid” in the modern world. I was taught to not be that way. When I sense I am becoming that way, I think maybe I ought to go somewhere else.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
bah, bullshit
It’s the internet man.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
On a side note, HOLY SHIT
I was going to post a comic I once saw about anonymity saving you from being punched in the face. The GIS produced this:
I think I might be off to ancestry.com…..fucking wow.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
Holy shit, is that terrifying
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
by BK on Dec 14, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Like I said, if you and Billy Baldwin had a kid...
Which ex is throwing the punch?
"Superman plays first base for the Reds." - tHom Brennaman
by Ash on Dec 14, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd to hell and back, lady.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Dec 15, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Welcome back, old timer
It’s good to see you again.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 14, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think he needs to earn it
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
x
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
by jch24 on Dec 14, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm still waiting for my acceptance letter from RR
They say that if i donate another 500 dollars to the AP I can sit in the same row as Slyde at game 2, But I have to pay the 25 dollar book signing fee as well… making friends is hard!
WYSIWIG
Yeah, because there definitely aren't enough already....
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
This not a tough call
Sign him. If he balks then keep him as cheap as possible and see how he does next season…if good – lock him up if not so good – lock him up cheaper.But lock this guy up.
No fucking brainer.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
I really like this fanpost
I love that Joey Votto is a Red, but I don’t want to spend the farm on him. I don’t want the Reds to be in a situation where they have Joey Votto and can’t afford to give him the support cast he needs.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
Sign him now and the Red's won't be in that position Justin
If you think salaries are getting squirrelly now – just wait til the ecnomy gets going agains.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
salaries
I was fairly surprised to see some of the contracts that came out of the winter funk-fest.
But for whatever, it seems all like cartoon money to me.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Yes and no...
That’s the one thing I really worry about with my reasoning in the post. The money could really explode if the economy grows. On the other hand, the big question is who the potential suitors would be. If Votto’s free agent year doesn’t coincide with either Teixeira or Adrian Gonzalez coming off their team’s books, I think the market for him becomes much tighter. I’m not sure when that is (and Gonzalez still has to agree to a contract), and I’m also not sure if New York or Boston would go after him as a DH (or shift their 1B to DH). At the very least, I’ll grant that the market is hard to predict and could make a decision to pass on signing him this year a bad one.
You can't really play that game, though, because so much could happen
Also, the Nats/Werth signing should teach us 2 things:
1) It only takes one team to overpay to make a FA unobtainable
2) You never know which team that will be.
Assuming Votto won’t have a market simply because BOS, NYY, etc. are set is folly. Somebody will pay the man.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Anyway, I think the politics of signing JV is important
The image of JV as a Reds player is worth at least as much as his contract would be. He stands to be the “mayor” of Redsland if he’s locked in and playing Votto-ball for the long haul.
On the other hand, negotiations tend to tarnish the guy’s feel-good image, turns him into a guy after the money. The Reds NEED players who reflect the sort of small-town, doin-in-for-love-of-the-game.
It’s one of the reasons Rose endures, why the famous players in Reds history are still admired, years after they are gone from the game. Votto is that sort of player. Bruce is too. Most guys will be gone in a couple of years.
People like Joey Votto. The Reds owe the fans at least the attempt to keep him in town. If JV has other ideas, well … we still have Boy Wonder in right field.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
You nailed it, and Votto has taken a step back
I think the Reds have made the first move in the rebranding of the Reds. Jay Bruce will (in my opinion) be just as great if not a greater player than Joey Votto over the course of their careers. What separates him from Votto is his ability to interact with the media and more importantly the fans. Joey just isn’t the type of guy who has the “camera face”. For me, it’s one of his more endearing qualities. But at the end of the day you HAVE to put a face on the franchise and you have to have a guy out there tussling the hair of young Reds fans.
I see a Bench/Rose scenario developing here, only because Jay is so affable and down-home and Joey isn’t. The difference between then and now is that we’ll miss Joey’s peak years to FA.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
I would bet a lot of money that Bruce will be a more valuable player over the next 7 years than Votto will
part of that is simple aging curves, but Bruce is about to bust out in a big way. Votto is great, and will be great for the next few years, but for pure all-around greatness, Bruce is going to be remembered in Cincy for years.
We’re going to be telling our grandkids about him.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I already go around telling that
I don’t have any grandchildren, but I see little kids on the park bench, at the laundromat, grocery, you know … and I stop them. “Say,” I ask, “did you see that monster-ass fuckin’ home run Jay Bruce hit?”
Natch, their grand-mommies aren’t happy about that, but I strike up a conversation with them, and … whoosh … nature takes its course. What’s this about getting smacked in the face?
Anyway, I agree that Bruce could be a 40/100 guy this year, Dunn with a glove.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Do you wonder why people here were harsh on you the first time around?
This is why. Cut the pretensious and sarcastic shit dude. You have a valid opinion. Let it stand on its own, don’t try to create some bullshit me-against-the-world scenario. You don’t have to.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
Not sure what inspired this
but I guess I was maybe wrong for coming back on here.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Eeeeeasy, big fella
Pretty sure Mr. U is just joking here.
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
well, this
If it was intended as humor and not received as such, then it is a matter of miscommunication. I go on record as stating that I have no personal agenda for attacking anyone on this planet or any other. So any perceived insults are clearly unintentional. That is my disclaimer and I am sticking to it.
I am taking the night off from work anyhow and have decided to let my inner worm out for the evening. I am not allowed to go outdoors for any duration due to the freezing weather. So I am listening to richbroradio.com and fucking around on this board.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Sorry, took it as you being confrontational
Chalk it up to me being an ass. Mea Culpa.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
I do not typically do confrontation
I am usually the one who sees the alternate point of view, which is sometimes not exactly what folks want to hear.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Well that sounds like passvie agressive confrontation.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
by Madville on Dec 15, 2010 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I meant to include this...
but forgot. I’ve got this gut feeling that Jay Bruce is going to get much better next year and Votto, while still good, won’t be able to replicate his 2010 performance. If they are both 6-win players, but Bruce is on the rise and the expectations for Votto have been scaled back some, who’s team does this become? I think Bruce becomes the face of the Reds in that scenario. Given that Bruce has already re-signed and appears to love playing in Cincinnati, we should keep an open mind to the possibility that the team will be built around Bruce, and not Votto, by the time Votto’s free agent year comes.
The issue here, as I see it
… you are basing real-life business decisions on these two players on gut instincts. It’s fine to project that you BELIEVE Bruce is going to be much better and that Votto will NOT be. I can’t find anywhere — groping around in the dark, anything that proves it.
While I happen to AGREE that Bruce will get better, I have seen nothing to suggest that Votto won’t become a .340 hitter. … just sayin’.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
gut instincts, scouting reports, and the way the Reds have treated the two over the years
besides that, MORE ALL CAPS
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
I can live with that.
NOT all at the same time, though.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Let's not forget
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
badenjr, great post, and I couldn't agree with you more.
I’ve always viewed the arbitration process as the parent club’s ability to estimate a player’s free agency process over a multiyear pool of stats. Baseball is a fickle sport, full of stats that vary enough during the first 450 or so games that the club who has the rights to sign him also has the rights to WAIT to sign him.
Let’s face it, if the Reds were to sign Votto to a 6 year deal this season, it would cost them what, $95-$110 million? If he goes out next year and has a year like his rookie year, signing him for 5 years further may cost $70 million…if he goes out and has a year like this past year, it could cost $100 million over 5 more years. That’s a $30 million difference over those 5 years, or the equivalent of a stud position player’s salary each of those 5 years. That’s significant as hell.
I love Joey Votto, and I love what he’s produced for the Reds. I’m pretty sure the reason I signed up for this blog several years ago was to make the comment/question of “when the F was the last time a Reds player posted a .300/30/100 season, damnit!” Lo and behold, Joey stepped right up to my complaining.
That said, it’s worth the Reds’ while to see what Yonder can do. For the same reason we can’t trade Yonder in a package for Greinke because of Butler et. al, young 1B/DH bats are plentiful these days, and we may well have our hands on 2 of them. It behooves the Reds to find out if Yonder can cut it, because sacrificing .40 OPS points to put Yonder at 1st to free up an extra $17 million a year is totally fucking important to a small club like our Reddos.
BTW, good to see ya back, johnu1. Don’t let these/we/those/us assholes get to ya.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 14, 2010 10:37 PM EST reply actions
The problem is, there is a high likelihood that going with Yonder would give up over 100 points in OPS, or more
plus worse defense. You’d be talking about a potential 3-5 win loss.
Not that it should be out of the question, but if you do it, that 17 million better be spent well, dammit.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I don't fully agree...
I buy that Alonso isn’t going to be the second coming of Votto. I don’t think Alonso’s going to be a stud, but I do think he’ll be serviceable (and tradeable) if given an opportunity. I also don’t think we should expect Votto to be a 6 or 7 win player on a regular basis. Even if Alonso is a league average 2 win player, and Votto is a 5 win star, that only amounts to a 3 win difference. Maybe the talent gap is greater than that in a few years, maybe not. Regardless, as a small market team, just about every dollar that the Reds spend better be well spent.
So actually, we do agree
Alonso is likely to be a 3 win loss compared to Votto. That is huge. On the open market this offseason, $17 million has barely bought you those three wins.
I’m just saying that you could make this move and it ends up being lateral at best. Unless that freed up money was spent VERY well, and that’s always risky.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Using a non-dominating strategy the Reds should sign Votto.
Success for the Reds should be defined as winning the division (well ultimately the World Series) ever year. If success is based upon winning the division then the Reds should react in accordance with their rivals.
The only competition I foresee for the next several years is coming from the Cardinals. With Albert Pujols contract in limbo the best strategy for the Reds would be to sign the current NL-MVP as assurance for future success. If Joey Votto does worse than projected the Reds will ultimately be the losers, but If Joey Votto has a similar type of year then the Reds, to sign Votto, would have to offer the principality of Cincinnati along with delivering Busken and Hyde Park Pizza on Votto’s demand (only Cincinnatians should get this reference). Thus I see the payoff to be a lot greater with signing Votto.
Money should not be a problem for the Reds because there are a lot of disgruntled Bengals fans that would be more than willing to spend money on the Reds with Votto than on the future Bengals with Palmer.
by LyotardFactory on Dec 14, 2010 11:15 PM EST reply actions
The Cubs and Brewers will both be better next year
I’m more scared of the Brew than I am of the Cards, honestly.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
Brewers have 2 good pitchers, an awful bullpen, and an inconsistent but powerful offense.
Cardinals lack offense, but if Colby Rasmus and David Freese are healthy, that’ll be a lot better. Those would be 4 legit bats. Then they throw Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Westbrook, Penny/Lohse at you, and those first 4 are all pretty good and the first 3 were elite last year.
The Cubs will always be awful.
This is all true
However, the Cards defense is going to be much worse this year, with Berkman and Theriot. Schumaker has always sucked, and he’ll be a year older.
If those guys start all the time, I’d expect a regression from the GB-heavy staff.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Freese wasn't great at third either IIRC, but he probably wasn't as bad as who they put there after he was injured.
I wonder what their real plans are for Berkman. Brendan Ryan’s defense was apparently way better than I thought – he looked okay when he played the Reds, not great. I wonder if Carpenter was behind the SS move.
I think we can all agree that lots of the Reds bats are in for a regression – Rolen, Hernandez, Cairo, Stubbs, and Votto will likely see worse numbers this year. Jay’s will be a whole lot better, we hope. Pitching will be better, we hope (Arrendondo!)
It would be so slick if Walt could move Cordero for cash. Damn.
I think Walt could move Coco for cash if he really wanted
but I don’t think he wants to. Someone would pay half of Coco’s salary – we’ve already seen 4 or 5 middle relievers get signed to multi-year contracts and Rivera makes $15 million at age 40.
Anyway, the Brewers still don’t have enough pitching unless Randy Wolf turns back the clock big time. The Cardinals will be just as good this year, most likely. I don’t agree with everyone else that the Cubs will continue to be bad. They simply have too much money and some decent prospects, even Hendry will make them competitive with the resources they have.
I don't think so
I think it would be very difficult to get someone to pay even half of Cordero’s salary. Despite his shiny ERA last year, his stats are really uninpressive – as a Red, his WHIP is 1.388 and his k/bb is 1.88. Not only does he give up hits, he gets hit hard – his LD% is over 20% as a Red.
Last year he was among the worst relievers in all MLB in all 3 stats; the only thing that saved him was he keeps the ball in the park – he allowed only .6 hr/9.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Cordero
Interesting how we got to the mound from first base. (direct route?)
I heard all of August that CoCo was working on the problems that got him into trouble. Off and on, he would impress me that he had overcome that. Not really did he ever solve the problem.
And if he comes out in 2011 with the same issues, he won’t be our closer, no matter how much money we owe him.
So … hoowegot? Masset, Bray, Ondrusek, Jordan Smith?
Dumping CoCo for money only gives us money.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I'm pretty sure most people around here would be fine with Masset as closer.
And if not him, there’s some guy named Chapman who could probably handle it.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
DoJo.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 16, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Masset
… needs to sharpen up his focus and be ready to pitch when he comes into the game, not warm up by the second hitter he faces.
I agree that Chapman is the best arm for the job but I cannot believe that we are investing this much in the “franchise” that he could be without labeling him as what he ought to be — a rotation ace.
So not to get into a real debate, I can’t see the Reds putting this kind of talent on the back end of the bullpen.
I forgot Joseph … is he ready for a try?
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I'm not sure he will be at the start of next year, no.
But I wouldn’t be shocked to see him called up mid-year, especially if/when Bray gets hurt (again).
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 16, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure what that comment about Masset means,
but whatever issues he has, CoCo has more.
Masset strikes out more, walks fewer, throws just as hard, and is seemingly just as durable.
Also, even if it is a thing that “Masset needs to…be ready to pitch when he comes into the game, not warm up by the second hitter he faces” I’d imagine closing would help him with that, since he’d always know exactly when he was going to get called on.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Masset Part Trois
I believed Masset was a closer in waiting as recently as last April but he didn’t seem to be “ready” to pitch when he came into the game. Seemed to need 8 or 10 pitches until he found his groove.
Part of that, I think, connects to the bullpen coach, but that’s another story, I reckon.
When Masset is right, he’s tough. But he may be a better closer than an 8th inning guy. In any case, the cupboard isn’t really all that bare after CoCo.
I think Todd Coffey could still be around.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
round, not around
also, that thing about gut decisions can go 2 different ways in this bit.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
we got 25 players and a LF ain't one.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 16, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The thing is, the Red Sox just gave Bobby Jenks a 2-year deal
for $6 million per, and he had comparable stats to Coco last year.
So .....
at midseason, when the Bosux are 8 games back and wondering why, they say … “we need a new closer. How about … Jacoby Ellsbury for Cordero? Deal?”
Deal or no deal?
Two guys named “Jacoby” in the clubhouse (front or back) would be pretty amazing.
The man is a flat genius and i agree with everything he does. -- some troll describing Sir Walter Jocketty
So...
suggesting that there are not teams that would pay half of Cordero’s contract is wrong, IMO. There are. If he were a free agent, he could get $5-7 million for a year.
Boston would pay
yeah, to contend. They have no choice. Jenks isn’t Papilbon, so not clear on his role. I don’t follow that team much despite ESPN’s mandate.
I just want to get a real player in a deal instead of just “money.”
I realize “money” gets you players later on, but … just sayin’.
Ellsbury is a fascinating option for folks like me who don’t do the FX/WAR/ETC sabrematric stuff.
I just hope Nicky M. steps up this spring and demands a chance to win that closer’s job.
The man is a flat genius and i agree with everything he does. -- some troll describing Sir Walter Jocketty
Just some thoughts
Alonzo in left. Left field is best defended with a bat.
What I don’t know about this guy is his ability to run bases, play smart baseball and all that other stuff. He can hit, we think.
I stand by the idea that signing Votto is good for business, good for the team’s image and good for the fans and how the team markets to them. Bruce and Votto (tandem) is almost as interesting as Maris and Mantle.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Word is, Alonso's BAD in left
Like, can’t make it up with a bat bad. If he can play ANY bit of LF, sign Votto and push Yonder to LF. I’m just not sure it’s possible.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
You and I are the onlt 2 people who see Yonder in Left Field
I expect to see him there platooning with Gomes this season. He pretty slow but then so was Greg Luzinski…and Adam Dunn and Prince Fielder.
I looked for 25 minutes to find a picture of Luzinski in the OF – none exist.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
Alonzo needs to evaluate his life
The man is on the cusp of the big payday. If I was him, I’d hire a bunch of smart baseball people and turn him into TINKER-fuckin’ Bell in left field. The man does not need to be on welfare.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Right now, Alonso is terrible in LF
But, scouts are already skeptical of his power, and most of his value is going to come from his AVG/OBP skills anyway.
If I’m the Reds, I’m asking him to go on a serious fitness regimen in the offseason, lose 10-15 pounds, and work on being a LFer. He might lose some power, but if he could hit .280/.370/.430 while being passable in LF, I think we’d all be pretty happy. Plus, it’s entirely possible he’d outdo that SLG, especially if he only played against righties.
I have no idea if that kind of transformation is possible, but the kid is young. Young kids can lose weight pretty easily if they are determined to do so.
/bitter at having just turned 31
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
yup
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think he's got much room to lose weight.
Yonder isn’t really fat at all, he just has a very thick lower half (he reminds me a little of Brett Wallace, though not quite that bad). This contributes to his poor foot speed (other than Corky and Ramon, Yonder was probably the slowest player I saw on the Reds last year) and also makes it harder to drop the weight to begin with. You can only take the battle against genetics so far.
That said, I don’t really see any harm in trying. It’s not gonna hurt his trade value if he loses some weight as his power is already in question, and if he does manage to gain enough range to play a passable LF, then the Reds just solved their LF hole with a potential impact bat for basically no money. There’s no real downside to it.
I think he could easily lose it, if he was determined to
Him from college
His current stock photo:
He’s definitely bulked up, and not really in a good way. I realize he’ll always be relatively slow, and I don’t know if he could lose enough to make a difference to his defense, but like you said, there’s no real downside to trying.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Yikes.
That’s a clear difference. This Yonder in LF talk needs to stop, right now.
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
Yonder and Jonny are your left field platoon...except when they are in SanDiego and the Hi-Z gets to play.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
we do not need Gomes on this roster
at all
by Highlifeman21 on Dec 18, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
So what's the answer?
The man is a flat genius and i agree with everything he does. -- some troll describing Sir Walter Jocketty
He is already on a Red's approved skill improvement regime instead of playing winter ball.
He may just get almost a fleet as Adam Dunn…no if he could just strike out a lot and not care about baseball..
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
I, for one, agree with the fanshot
getting Votto to more than a 4-year deal is a bit much. He’ll be 31 by the end of it, and he’s stated a lack of interest in signing a 6+ year contract. Which is understandable: 6+ years is a long, long, time.
You’d think that him and the Reds would both rather get a contract done then go year-by-year. And as much as I want to see Votto be in Cincinnati for ever and ever and ever, well, I don’t want to see the Reds sign him to a Ryan Howard contract quite yet, either.
I think the Reds will have to overpay huge in order to convince Votto to not even see the Pujols and Fielder contracts next year. So may as well play it out rather than give an offfer he can’t refuse.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
Good fanpost
I disagree on the 4yr/$70M to get it done. That would be the largest average annual value contract ever given to a player in Votto’s position, and by a large margin. Pujols’ deal signed before his first year of arb should be a good comp, and he made under $15M a year with his current deal. Votto would not get in a multi-year deal the same thing he would get in arbitration because of the guaranteed nature of the multi-year deal money. I think a breakdown like 9-12-15-18 (4yr/$54M) is more likely for a 4-year deal. Votto would have to surrender some possible future money for some current guaranteed money. That’s the only way the deal would make sense for the Reds.
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Agreed here
And I also think 4 years is about all that will happen, if that. I think Votto would like to test the market eventually, and the Reds don’t necessarily have the means to lock him up for longer.
I’d be thrilled with 4/54. That gives some stability to the organization and gives the team a clear window to win.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
What?
Pujols’ deal was a 7-year deal, so we should expect his AAV would be higher (he had 4 years of free agency included). My proposed Votto 4-year deal would pay $10M more than Pujol’s first 4 years.
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tell that to the stock market.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 15, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
I agree that my $70M estimate sounds outlandish when compared to history...
but I also think the $54M is too low for a reigning MVP. I hate to be a slave to Fangraphs on this, but if there 40/60/80 assumption is to be believed (which I assume someone has done some research to support it), at $5M per win (which appears a low estimate), you’re only talking about a 5 win player. There were 29 position players that cracked the 5 win mark last year. Surely Votto will be one of the best 30 position players in the league over the next 4 years.
Now I agree that the only way for this to make sense to the Reds is if Votto would surrender possible future money for current guaranteed money. That makes sense. But I think the $70M is already something of a discount because both the $ per win and wins per year are low estimates. The question is how much Votto would have to be willing to give up for the Reds to do the deal. I suspect the number would lie somewhere between the $54M and $70M, but I’m guessing it will be closer to the $70M. I hope I’m wrong.
You can't go strictly by FanGraphs as a guide for arb awards
The free agent market may be paying $30M for 7.5 WAR, but that relationship isn’t strictly linear and arbitration values players differently. Comps are instructive here. Howard’s $10M seems like the upper limit – and he better counting stats.
So Votto’s ceiling for an arb award is probably $10M. Using the rough 40/60/80 rubric, arbitration probably sees him as worth around $25M on the open market. If he maintains that value, he’s probably looking at, absolutely ideally, 10M/15M/20M in his arbitration years.
If the Reds offer him a 4-year deal, they’ll need to steer closer to this ideal situation and hope Votto feels some insecurity about the arbitration process and sustaining his success. I’d shoot a little higher than Slyde, but he’s right that Votto would have to pay for the security in free agent dollars. On a four year deal, he’d still have a chance to test the market one year late and recoup the money. You might be able to bring him down a little by giving him some additional security in a player option on the fifth. I think between $55-$60M guaranteed is a reasonable estimate.
That said, I don’t think there’s much incentive for Votto to go for a deal. He can roll the dice in arb and if he “loses,” he’s probably only making $1M or so less than the Reds would offer him in an extension. He can also wait out the market for Pujols and Fielder. Even if he has a “down” year, he he’s still only one year removed for an MVP, as Howard was. He would have to be concerned about performing significantly worse than Howard’s MVP-follow-up to want to pounce on an extension this season.
Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think a lot of fangraphs money stuff fails at the extremes
Arbitration is less about the free agent market and very much more about the arbitration market. I asked Nick Krall (he handles pre-arb contracts for the Reds) about this a couple of years ago and he was very clear that the number one determining factor in arbitration negotiations is previous arbitration negotiations. He said free agent money plays very little role in how arb deals are negotiated. So while there may be a 40/60/80 correlation to arb contracts, it’s not the hard-and-fast rule of arb negotiations. Also, I recall reading that the 40/60/80 comparisons usually lag a year or two behind the free agent market, so the $5M/WAR current market value (or whatever it is) is not necessarily relevant right now to arb cases, with the idea being that money takes a year or two longer to flood the arbitration world where owners have a little more leverage.
But really, the big issue I see with 4/70 is that the AAV for that contract is $17.5M, which is over $3M a year more than the largest AAV given out to a first year arb player. In fact, it would be the 4th highest AAV for a multi-year deal received by any player still in the arb process. I love Joey, but I don’t think he has the resume to be asking for or getting that kind of money from the Reds. Of course, the Phillies ludicrous dealings with Ryan Howard muck up all of this for everyone, so what do I know? (BTW, all of the arb-contract record stuff is from here. It’s a good listing of data)
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by Slyde on Dec 15, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
What amazes me ....
is that there is that much money on the planet.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I often forget this stuff is real sometimes because the numbers are so ludicrous
Think about it, if Jay Bruce plays things smart, he just set his family up for generations, and he’s not yet 24. Even still, there are a few analysts calling him silly for taking so “little” money so quickly.
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and then there's Antoine Walker
managed to squander an estimated 110 million bucks.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
like I said, Bruce still has to play it smart
Even if he says, “$10 million is for me to play with and the rest is going to be used as a safety net,” he’ll still have more purchasing power than most of us could ever dream of.
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He should set up a pour-over will and intervivos revocable trust.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
maybe he wants to blow it all on broads, booze, and blow
Nah, I can’t really see him doing that. That’s why I like him so much. I bet he’ll make sure his sister’s taken care of, at least.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I don't believe in "handing down money."
In 2016 I should have my house paid off. I plan to have my house rented as two units once Mrs. Petey and I are gone, with the net proceeds going to a charitable foundation…forever.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Sounds like a great plan to me.
I’ve just been studying what happens to dead folks’ money all semester. Yech.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
"If you're smart enough to get into college, you're smart enough to figure out how to pay for college." - Jesse Ventura
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
One only hopes
that these agents and negotiators put together something that resembles a sensible business plan for these guys. My dealings with ballplayers, though limited, still suggests they would rather play ball than be rich.
Being rich is OK, but they don’t much relate to it in deep future terms.
Pork bellies is a good investment option.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
FWIW
I think Bruce is a practical guy and he wants to take care of his family (based on the couple of articles and stories I’ve heard about his relationship with his sister). I think that’s why he wanted to get a deal in place sooner rather than later. And from a practical standpoint, he’ll only be 30 when the deal is up, so he’ll still be able to get that big one if he fulfills his promising talent.
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I read somewhere
That Walker had a dozen people on his own personal payroll (barber, cook, etc.). That and he gambled like MJ.
Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is just a freight train coming your way...
@btcoop71
I also read ...
… he had a fleet of cars, an entourage that numbered in the dozens … hard to believe, but he would not even be the first person to get screwed by his friends.
I heard stories similar about Dennis Rodman but that Jordan and some of his teammates managed to get DR to agree to a financial consultant during his Bulls years, as a way of keeping him stable. After that, who knows?
Some claimed Joe Louis was broke and never realized it.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
True
Bruce seems as levelheaded as they come, if not as shrewd as Votto.
I’m sure his weeping mother at the press conference wasn’t worried about the disparity between Bruce’s contract and his theoretical Marginal Value Over Replacement Player. Bruce will only be 30 at the end of his contract. If he’s not in a position for a relatively big payout on the free agent market at that point, then his extension probably will have served as a nice safety net for him.
Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
wow, only 30 ...
a careful regimen of Weightwatchers, exercise and some Balco supplements and we are talking Roy Hobbs numbers here, are we not?
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Roy Hobbs only played 1 season...
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'mma rec this, cause it felt like being in school, in a good way
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I think I tried to say something similar to Slyde
but it sounded more like “Durr… Howard… the Duck was a good movie.”\
The master has become the master.
Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Slyde just took us to school!
But it’s ok, because he’s gonna get us ice cream after he picks us up from chess club practice.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
aw shucks guys
I really do think badenjr has made some great points, so I hope he doesn’t take my disagreements the wrong way. In fact, I’d say my disagreements are more with FanGraphs than him anyway. Damn, it feels like I’m railing against FanGraphs a lot lately. I really do like them, but this time of year I think the $/WAR stuff is overblown. I just have a hard time believing money per production should be considered linear. Conceptually that makes no sense to me.
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Seems like the best comp is Justin Morneau...
he was a super 2 and got $4.5M in his first time around, then with three more years of team control and an MVP under his belt he signed a 6/$80M (13.3 AAV) three years ago. Votto is much better and there’s been inflation – I don’t know if that adds up to a 4/70 but it’s pretty close.
Lohse has a no-trade clause. Please tell your friends.
And the first 4 years of his deal were $46M
So, Votto would be getting a raise over that if he got $54M. And if you compare it to what Morneau got in each year of his deal (7.4, 10.6, 14, 14), I’d be giving Votto a larger number in each of those corresponding seasons, including $4M in that last season. Looking at Morneau’s contract makes me think I might be giving Votto too much, not too little.
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the key to remember is that the first 3 years of the deal are going to suppress the AAV of the deal
so his AAV should be relatively smaller (after adjusting for salary inflation) than guys who signed longer than 4 year deals (if we assume that we’re only discussing 4 year deals for Votto)
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Exactly
Saying a 6/80 contract should compare to a 4/70 contract is silly, because that indicates the last 2 years of the 6 year deal are only worth a total of 10 mil. Given that those are FA years, they’ll be worth relatively much more than the first 4.
I still think 4/54 is probably pretty spot on, though.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Hey, and I mean this sincerely
Thanks for talking about another topic. I’ll try harder to be less of a dick in the future.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 15, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
I think
the Reds should go through arbitration with him each year until he becomes a free agent. That way they can present a case against him every time out. Hurt his feelings year after year and ultimately alienate a player who you already know is intense and sensitive. That would be a good plan, right?
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
yeah, it amazes me that Votto would be willing to go to arb
given that he has a, um, sensitive issue that he’s dealing with. I know an employer would have to be a real dick to bring that up when negotiating money, but if they are $5M apart at the table (which is probably a bit high), I expect the Reds to be dicks.
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Even if they wouldn't bring it up
they’d still have to present reasons why he’s not worth what he wants. Even put nicely, it’s still devaluing a sensitive guy. I wouldn’t want to go through that process and I have pretty thick skin.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 15, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I am OK understanding 'sensitive'
If they are doing numbers that equate to the national debt of Paraguay, it’s a bidnuz, not a Barbie doll cottage picnic.
In that respect, Votto would certainly at some point say, “hey, this is how I make my living.”
And deal with that.
But the franchise needs to let him know that he’s either (a.) a commodity as ballplayers truly are or (b.) somebody the community likes and respects and represents an asset as a result.
Negotiations can take on many forms.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Which is why I hate the arbitration system.
It mandates a single, highly rigid procedure, which tends towards all-or-nothing adversarial positions.
But I think I agree with what you’re saying. The Reds need to think long term when planning out this year’s arbitration strategy. If you think there’s a decent chance of signing him to an extension later, as long as you don’t bung up the relationship, then I think you take a more moderate approach to arbitration now (split the difference, or submit a fairly high number). Depending on the state of the budget, I’m sure that management realizes that now is not the time to go scorched earth on Joey.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
I think management would love to avoid arbitration
That’s why Castellini keeps telling everyone who will listen that they want Votto long-term. But if Votto comes back with $12M for arb, the Reds will likely to fight it hard. However, if Votto puts in $9M, then they should take it and be happy. The problem is that it will probably be $10.5M and then what do you do?
Follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
trade Gomes for an A ball player
save $1.75 million, and start Heisey in LF?
Amirite??
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 15, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Can you imagine Gomer ...
… playing for the Pirates?
Wanted: On-staff dental technicians. Needed immediately.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
9 - 10.5 - 12
Raise ticket prices to get to the middle number, sell off some useless property in Arizona to get at the higher figure. I would bet there is some rat-hole money in there. The Reds have to know the numbers they have to deal with. I mean, this isn’t like the days when I argued over a 40-dollar a month raise.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I think it's designed as well as we can hope
By making each side commit to a single number, it forces the parties to seriously think about what’s a reasonable figure. And by having the panel pick one of the parties’ figures, the process encourages settlement because there’s no chance that the final decision splits the baby. So the parties understand that compromise is incumbent on them.
I wish real world arbitration was more like this. Instead, parties have the incentive to practically invent damages with the hope of pulling a fast one over the panel.
Right, and one of the only arguments against Votto's value is his missed time
Which is directly related to his “sensitive” issues. It’d be nearly impossible to fight an arb case against him and not at least reference it.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Referencing it, yeah
But I just don’t envision a scenario where the big vaulted oak doors open, Votto and his agent stroll into this enormous room, where they sit down at this huge desk, Walt on the other side. Clearing throat, he opens folder, “I see here where you had some issues awhile back. Are you OK now?”
Now, not making more folly of it than that, there has to be a mechanism in place that has cut through this part of the negotiation. There has to be a final point that needs to be addressed before the Yea or Nay button is pushed.
They are not at square one with this guy. If they are, what else were they doing after they signed the Declaration that we would only take good stuff from Canada?
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
If I am the Reds, and Votto wants to go to arb...
…I spell out to him that the Reds hate the process and seriously want to avoid it. I also then warn him that if he presses forward, the front office has no choice but to hire an outside firm to represent the Reds, no holds barred. I’d tell him that the Reds will not actively participate in the process, as they all love Joey like family, but that they will hire a hard-line sonnovabitch lawyer (from St. Louis) who will plead their side of the negotiations to the utmost of their ability, and everything is on the table.
And then I’d beg him not to force that issue, instead hopefully signing a contract where the Reds are already prepared to go higher than their previous offer.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like that wouldn't necessarily be allowed.
But I can’t find anything specific in the agreement that would forbid it. On the other hand, hiring someone else they know is going to be hard-line probably won’t help Joey’s feelings about the team if things go badly.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
I'm pretty sure that the club can farm out their arbitration litigation.
I read in LICENSE TO DEAL that Jay Bruce’s agent, Matt Sosnick, doesn’t do arbitration himself, but rather has a lawyer that he hires to handle it.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it's my impression that clubs get outside counsel to do arbs
I am surprised that an agent wouldn’t do it himself, since they’re usually lawyers.
The Sosnick-Cobb Agency is small, and they did not have enough ARB experience...
…to compete with the big agencies when recruiting clients. So they partnered up with an experienced ARB guy who had a good track record.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think lawyers don't do that
Lawyers who are agents would hire other lawyers to represent them. That is how lawyers make lots of money and make sure that lawyers all are in love.
Technically, the player could go in there with his .38 special, Black Betsy and shiny spikes, and say “you sombeeches, amo kick yo’ azz.”
I think King Kong Bundy did this.
Joey probably wouldn’t, though.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
this is how you present an argument. well done and rec'd.
state your position in the first sentence followed by some backstory and opinion. first point, second point, third point. final conclusion which is the first paragraph rephrased. my sister is a high school junior and no matter how many times i explain to her that following this formula will not only make things easier but will also yield good results, she doesn’t get it. i don’t know if it’s all kids or just her, but you really can’t go wrong if you follow this type of format.
and the first rule of debate
Do not introduce anecdotal information that is largely foreign to the topic in hopes of skewering the conversation. But you are right. Presenting an argument or POV is pretty simple, provided it isn’t just an opinion laced with unsubstantiated methane gas.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
Comp profs everywhere
just got a shot of cold down their spines.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Sister, eh?
/straightens tie
/slicks back hair
by Brendanukkah on Dec 15, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
slicking your back hair?
Do chicks dig that?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
If you braid it tight, you can spell out your lady's name.
What more could a gal want?
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
ouch - harsh!
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
You're right
Lost in all that is a discussion of his smashing. Although, unfortunately for the Reds, he smashes in contract negotiations too.
Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 16, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
This was well thought out and well presented
I agree with the premise. This offseason is not the ideal time to sign Votto, wait til next offseason. The odds are against Joey making himself even more valuable. Though I agree on the premise, I also have to disagree with the figures.
4/70 is equivalent to Jason Werth money. Jason Werth was a FA. Joey Votto has 3 years of arb. left. Jason Werth adds value with his glove and his baserunning, and plays a tougher position to fill. And many people think Jason Werth got something of an overpay.
I think Slyde’s 4/54 is a very solid guess. 5/74 would be a good contract for the Reds also, IMO. I am really worried that Votto is just not particularly inclined to sign with the Reds. It’s the indication he’s been giving, which I hate as a Reds fan.
Maybe it's the wishful thinking of a friend
but Bruce seems to think he wants to stick around:
“Joey does not want to leave. He told me last night, ‘I don’t want to go anywhere. I love Cincinnati. I want to be here.’ You have to understand Joey and I are in a different situation. He’s almost four years older than me. He doesn’t want to go anywhere – for people to think that he does is not the right thought."
I get the impression he doesn’t want the 6-7 year extension Bruce got, which would take him into his mid-30s, but he’s probably open to 4-5 years. And he’s a cagey negotiator.
Need the number of that store where they make ceramics in an oven made out of damaged circus supplies. It's called Rumpled Stilts Kiln. - Jon Wurster
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 16, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Does this mean he and Walt will get into a steel cage and sort it out, MMA style?
Cause I bet Walt can be pretty cagey too.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Walt has the edge
He knows where ALL the ballplayers are.
Joey just has to hold them on first.
Seriously, when we compare Votto against the rest of the 1B in baseball, we are smiling gravy biscuits. As a talent, he’s at his prime. I reiterate that my reason for wanting him back in Cincy is generally the same one that Bruce projected — it gives the team a nice, positive face to promote to the fans.
Votto is an important part of the team’s image. The last thing the Reds should do, from a PR standpoint, is turn him into a Jeter-type bloodsucker. Unlikely JV would ever project that image but the blogosphere can create its own personalities.
As I read these posts, I see the point about not committing to a long-range deal when it isn’t necessary. So I guess my little .02 on this comes from the closet in the hallway.
Anyway, thanks for allowing me to weigh in on it.
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
I think it means he'll play Walt one-on-one in basketball instead of going to arb
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
BOOM SHACKALAKA!!!!!!!!!!
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Dec 16, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
I have been telling everyone I know to get me NBA Jams on PS3 for xmas
If I don’t get it, I’ll be buying it 12/26, srsly.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
and if 50 people get it for you
You’ll be selling it, srsly!
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Shit, there ain't 50 people willing to buy me a pack of bubble gum much less a PS3 game
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
I'd stand in line to buy you a beer.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
That's why your my homeboy, Petey
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
his your homeboy?
/oldjoke’d
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I was wondering if anyone would get my archaic humor :)
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
NBA Jam?
so let it be written, so let it be done
by Highlifeman21 on Dec 17, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
Did this really just happen?
Sorry Petey, HLM21 is my new homeboy.
Really though, you shouldn’t have.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
should get there the 22nd or 23rd
Happy early Burfday
by Highlifeman21 on Dec 19, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Is it that fun? I have a Wii and the new GoldenEye is sweet I want to try NBA!
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Dec 16, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I would try this
In the batter’s box, facing the Cuban Rocket (who will be blindfolded) … first guy who bails … loses.
Chet’s nuts roasting on an open fire ….. (doot doot doot)
I trust this organization. I trust this organization. I trust this organization. -- Justin
The trailers make it look like an exact mock up of the arcade game
’tHan owns it and is a fan, maybe he can weigh in?
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
remember those Eric Cantona Nike Commercials?
I imagine them.
"College actually kind of beat that out of me, making me more, well, of an asshole."
Joga Bonita, my friends
/cranks “A Little Less Conversation” remix
by Brendanukkah on Dec 17, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
I REOTERATE SIGN JOEY NOW IN TODAY'S DOLLARS.
This is beyond simple.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
Yes I make mistakes but it is because my keyboard is soooooooooo small
(ACTUAL SIZE)
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
WHARBLEGARBLE THE I AND THE O KEYS AREN'T EVEN CLOSE TO EACH--
Oh, wait they totally are.
(Mads, I just wanted an excuse to post a cute otter pic.)
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
Andy Mache you are now my mostest fav RR....you otter like this pic
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
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