Reds vs. Joey Votto...who really has the upper hand?
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 1, 2010 10:16 PM EST
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There's been plenty of talk lately about the contractual status of RR's beloved MVP, Joey Votto. There are many factors at work, many of which have been detailed extensively over the past few weeks. Joey's hitting arbitration for the first time this year, on the heels of his first NL MVP award after leading the Reds to the postseason for the first time in 15 years, and Yonder Alonso is waiting in Louisville.
On a quick glance, it cleary appears that Joey's got the bargaining power in any contract negotiations. He's a product of the Reds' system, he's OPS'd .958 over 456 games, he's a model citizen, and by all accounts his teammates like him. He's been called an anchor, a "battleship," and most recently, he's been called more valuable than Albert Pujols...high praise for a 27 year old who made $525K this year. These all make a very compelling argument that he can ask for the moon in any contract extension...but can he?
The Yankees have already committed the GDP of Eastern Europe to Mark Texeira to be their 1B for the long term, and have A-Roid locked up until he's decrepit (thereby prohibiting them from pursing Votto as a DH exclusively.) Boston has already communicated with Kevin Youkilis that they'd prefer he spend the offseason working on his 3B skills, presuming that they're after a 1B...with Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Adrian Gonzalez entering the final years of their contracts, they're all potential targets for the other highest spending team in the league. The Angels like Kendry Morales enough to not trade for a 1B midseason this year, the Mets apparently found their 1B of the futuire in Ike Davis after his mid-season call up, the Tigers are locked in with Miguel Cabrera for a 9 figure contract and half a decade, and the Cubs are 1B shopping this offseason.
If those are the high-payroll clubs, and they're all going to be committed to high-paid, (mostly) LH 1B, do the Reds really have THAT big of a risk that Votto will leave to chase a contract that the Reds can't match? Seemingly every team that has a history of "outspending" clubs like Cincinnati will have a player of relative comparison occupying the same position and batting order spot that Votto would command.
My question is this...do these facts actually put the Reds in the driver's seat to resign Votto to reasonable deal? Do the Reds want to wait until Prince Fielder signs his next contract (considering he's already turned down $100 million plus from the Brewers?)
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lol on the votes
I think its mutual. Votto doesn’t seem like he wants alot, he just wants to win baby win. And the Reds seem willing to offer a nice long term deal.
What Would Joey Votto Do?
The Cubs are in the market
and the Dodgers will be as well – they’ll dump Loney at the first opportunity. The Orioles were willing to shell out major cash for Teixeira, they might for Votto as well. I don’t think you can say that since most of the traditional big-payroll teams are set at 1B, that Votto will not receive serious offers from somewhere.
In short, Votto is in the driver’s seat. Hopefully, he is amenable to resigning with the Reds on a fair offer for both sides. He doesn’t seem like the consummate mercenary that some players are, but I doubt he’s going to give any kind of significant discount to the Reds.
He's in the driver's seat to the extent that it's possible
for a player under team control for three more years. He still has to stay healthy and keep producing for another three years if he wants the big payday.
by ken on Dec 2, 2010 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
And what I didn’t really spell out very well is that the Cubs and Dodgers are in the market NOW for a 1B, so it falls within reason that they won’t be back on the market for one again in 2 more years.
The only current clubs I could come up with that have an established 1B now, historically have had big pockets for FA’s, and will be on the market for a new 1B when Votto’s available are the White Sox (although with the Dunn/Konerko situation, who knows), Giants, and (gulp) the Cardinals. The wild card in this is the Blue Jays, who have several people they may rotate through the DH/3B/LF/1B slot until Joey may be available.
I guess what I was getting at is that A) I don’t think Joey is the kind of 1B who will willingly (or at all) accept being just a DH, and B) most every big market/big budget team will have a large contract player playing 1st when Joey is set to become a FA.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 2, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
You may be right, but it's tough to predict the market in 2-3 years
The only one I’d rule out is NYY for the reasons you mentioned. But almost any other AL team with the money can use the flexibility of the DH spot to bring in a star 1B. In the NL, big markets like LA or Chicago could sign an older placeholder like Konerko and get ready for a bigger signing in a few years. If Joey hits the market and is still playing like he is now, he’ll have plenty of suitors.
I still think the Tulo extension was too risky but I completely understand the Rockies’ thinking. Tulo’s next deal could easily get him more than the $20M/year the Rockies will be paying him.
by ken on Dec 3, 2010 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Don't forget about the Rangers
Chris Davis didn’t work out. Maybe Mitch Moreland will stick, but otherwise they’ll probably be in the market in a year or two.
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
neither has the upper hand
both are infected by capitalism thus will never enjoy a life of fulfillment and need. Instead they will be a slave to their material possessions.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
Tell 'em Justin
I’ll feel sorry for Joey when has to drive that new Mercedes W124 to his 2,5 million home on the 40 acre lot…its going to rough…but when you are a slave you are a slave…
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
That's his Cincy home
I look forward to seeing some cable channel have a feature on the ultimate log cabin he is building up Nort dere hey.
come fight with me not against me brother madville.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2010 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
It'll be interesting to see what Lord Pujols signs for
I could see him giving them “a break” and going 6 or 7 at 26-28m. Joey would probably slide in under that.
It wouldn't surprise me if Joey let that situation play out
and then requested something similar to what Pujols gets.
i love votto to death
But he’ll have no basis whatsoever to look for a contract comparable to whatever bajillion Pujols gets.
Votto’s best season just barely nipped Pujols’ 5th best season, and he’s got a much smaller track record. He’ll be in line for something like what Hanley, Youk, or Morneau signed.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 3, 2010 3:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Disagree completely.
Obviously he wouldn’t get that kind of money for his arb years, but if we want to sign him for any of his free agency and he’s as intelligent as he seems, it’s gonna cost us giant money. Unless Joey stops hitting like he has for his whole career thus far, he’s gonna end up with something like $25MM a year. Howard got it, Teix got an even better deal, Gonzalez is about to get it, Pujols is about to get it, and Votto can reasonably use any of them as a comp. Joey’s agent isn’t doing his job if we’re able to sign Votto for anything cheaper than 6/100, and something like 8/145 or so honestly is what it would take if I were in his spot. He hit the majors later than most top prospects, so he gets one shot at a big payday. The Reds are going to have to convince him to pass that up at age 29, and Hanley, Youk, and Morneau money aren’t likely to get that done, in my opinion.
I disagree with you as well.
All of those guys had a bigger track record of success than Joey has so far when they signed their deals. Somewhere between Ryan Howard and Morneau is a reasonable amount. Closer to Howard (if it were all FA years, but it’s not).
How much more of a track record of success could he have?
He was 2nd in rookie of the year voting and had a very solid year overall as a rookie. Two years ago he had the 4th best wOBA in all of baseball. This year he had the 2nd best wOBA in all of baseball, won the MVP award, and led his team to the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Since Votto’s rookie year, Albert Pujols (.442) is the only player with a better wOBA than Joey’s .411 (Youkilis is also at .411). The top ten players in wOBA since 2008 are Pujols, Votto, Youkilis, Cabrera, Holliday, Hanley Ramirez, Mauer, A-Rod, Teixeira, and Hamilton. Youk had one FA year bought out for $12M and has a $13M option for another year, but he had a track record of lesser success than Votto. Hanley signed his contract 7 months ago in Joey Votto time, but he had three FA years bought out for $46.5M total. Pujols had 5 FA years bought out for a total of $79M, a deal signed in two months in Joey Votto time. Everyone else on that list other than Hamilton and Votto got a huge money deal either when they hit FA or to prevent them from doing so.
If you lower it to just the past two years, Albert Pujols has a .434 wOBA and Joey Votto is still second in baseball with a .429 wOBA. Joey Votto is really, really, really good. That’s awesome as a fan, but the Reds really don’t have an argument for less than $25M per free agent year. Howard got his. Gonzalez is just about to sign a deal that establishes that as a non-fluke deal. By this time next year, Pujols and probably Fielder will also be on that list. I just don’t see any reason other than blind hope to expect such a strong discount from Votto.
What I meant
was that every player you mentioned had at least 4+ full seasons of near-Votto production before getting their deals.
Morneau had 4 seasons of ~.280/.360/.510
Youkilis had 4+ seasons of ~.300/.390/.500
Teixeira had 6 seasons of ~.300/.380/.550 (damn, better than I thought)
Howard had 5 seasons of ~.280/.390/.580 (good Lord)
Gonzalez has had 5+ seasons of .284/.368/.507
Do I even need to write Pujols down?
Votto has had 3 seasons. I thought he missed more time than he did in 2009, so you are not as far off as I originally thought. But the thing is that Votto still has 3 arbitration seasons in front of him. None of these other guys had that – Teixeira, Howard, and Gonzalez had 0 and much more track record, their contracts are just not applicable. Youk had 2 arb seasons left, and look at his cotract, 4/41. The arb and track record have to be considered. In FA dollars, Joey is worth $23+ million, I don’t disagree with this. But there are other factors when comparing these deals, and they happen to not be in Joey’s favor compared to those other players.
Another factor is age, as they were all younger than Joey, except Youk and Howard, when they broke into the league, etc.
Other than Howard and Teix, none of those players were all that close to Votto's production.
Votto has three arb years left and he already won an MVP. He’s gonna get paid for those years. His floor on his arb money, even if he pretty much falls off a cliff, is something like $30M over the next three years. What’s his incentive to sign a deal like Youk or Morneau? He gets an extra few million guaranteed over the next few years in exchange for giving up several years of freedom at a massive discount? Everything I’ve seen from Joey Votto (highly competitive, takes extreme pride in his work, devoted family man, human being) indicates that he, like most baseball players, will want to capitalize on his magnificent athletic ability in order to set himself and his family up for decades to come. If the Reds want to sign Joey Votto to a long term deal, they absolutely will have to offer him something very close to full FA value for his FA years or he’s gonna tell them to fuck off, wait three years while still getting $35M in arb, and then get $150M in three years when he hits the open market.
I agree
I didn’t see you explicitly state that he would get payed like those players for his FA years. I 100% agree with that. I only disagreed because I thought you meant his overall contract would look like theirs, when pretty much ALL of their years are FA years, and Joey’s aren’t.
6/110 would be reasonable then, but 8/180 would not. All I was trying to say. Oh, and Pujols was pretty close to Votto’s production too ;)
Howard is also older, and had already started his career decline when he signed his deal.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
say Doncosmic
Are you a lurker, a new guy or from another blogatoid ?
In any case welcome.
"Men today are pussies or gay" Aja Warren
I'm pretty sure
that Philly management was just banking on the whole 2012 end of the world thing when they signed him to that deal.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
one other idea came to mind
I wonder if the Reds will wait to negotiate in full until after they’ve found a home for Yonder. If they go out and ink Joey for 6 years/85 (Utley money, a reasonable comp), they lose a lot of Yonder’s trade value because he becomes much more expendable and teams can low-ball offers. That coupled with the new 3 year Bronstension makes me think (hope?) that a Yonder/young pitcher trade for an impact bat on the horizon.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 4, 2010 8:56 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Well, JJ Cooper (BAs prospect guy who covers the Reds)
says that teams have been calling about Yonder, but Walt is hesitant to trade him because of the uncertainty around Votto’s contract talks.
This seems dumb to me, as even if Votto talks go nowhere, he’s still under control for 3 years, and it’s not like they’ll just keep Yonder in the minors that long waiting. Plus, if Votto gets traded in a year or two, they could request a 1B prospect in return as part of the package.
So, it seems like you might be on to something. Walt is playing coy with Alonso, so teams are forced to slightly overpay rather than lowballing because they know he’s blocked.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
If the Reds can't sign Votto,
what kind of return can be expected? I know, that’s much too far away to determine. ESPN is reporting, though, that San Diego will send Adrian Gonzalez to Boston fir RHP Cadet Kelly, 1B Matt Rizzo, OF Raymond Fuentes and a PTBNL.
Kelly’s a fine prospect. Rizzo comes with potential, yet significant questions. Fuentes doesn’t do much for me. Interesting deal.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 4, 2010 3:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Casey Kelly.
I detest this tiny keyboard.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 4, 2010 3:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
we've come a long way since Jennifer Conneley
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
i was joking
i’ll never turn my back on my Jenny.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2010 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
I was always annoyed that Hilary Duff's character was the lead in that movie.
Since Christy Carlson Romano’s character’s authoritative voice, hatred of fun, and serious daddy issues pretty much made her my ideal woman.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
nice skirt on the woman in the background
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Dude, that's a dress
and possibly a dude.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
Kind of a great hat/dress combination.
Was she stopping by on her way to the Bluegrass Stakes?
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
looks ilke she has a "grand ole opry" shirt on
in Nashville?
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Turtling everything up today.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 6, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
That was a crap-ass haul for Adrian Gonzlaez
the Red Sox made out like gangbusters, and the rich get richer, as usual.
i dunno
they got 1 year of Gonzo. i think it’s more or less in line with what other stars are returning in trades like this (the Texieira deal to the Braves not withstanding).
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2010 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
I agree,
All three of those guys will be in AA to start the season, I would hope for at least one major league ready player.
by Eastwindquinn on Dec 5, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
or *at least* one player who is a safe bet to be an average ML regular.
maybe Kelly is that guy, but I don’t completely buy it.
I heard rumblings from second-hand sources
that Votto really wants big money. My impression is there won’t be more than a 3 or 4 year deal. Hopefully, I don’t know shit about shit.
On the plus side, the lack of long-term deal for Votto would give the Reds a “must-win” window of 3 years. If that’s the case, trade for Greinke and sign Carl Crawford and let’s win this bitch!
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
what would be the incentive for the Reds to give him a 3 year contract?
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
by justin007000 on Dec 5, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
cost certainty
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
by Slyde on Dec 5, 2010 12:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but you're also signing him at the peak of his value
I don’t see the benefit for the club if they don’t get at least one of his FA years.
by ken on Dec 5, 2010 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
to be fair
I just said 3 or 4 years off-handedly without thinking about all of the implications. But if Joey would sign away his arbitration years, I could definitely see a benefit to the Reds to know now what they will pay him in 2012 and 2013, especially when they are trying to sign Bruce and perhaps acquire an outfielder, shortstop, or ace starter type.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
by Slyde on Dec 5, 2010 9:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think this is ridiculous.
Jocketty has a pretty solid record of avoiding arbitration. I dunno if a three year deal is very much more likely than a 1 year kind of thing, but I think the Cards only went through arb once while Walt was in charge.
"there no countrey called west xylophone" Youtube
I love me some Joey Votto, but with all the talk I've heard about his demands,
I’m coming to the point where I say, let him play out his arb years, and if necessary, trade him with one year remaining, like the Padres and Gonzalez.
Votto’s an incredibly valuable player, but 1B aren’t that hard to find, and the Reds just can’t afford a contract north of $20 mil per. I’d much rather sign up Bruce for 6 years or so.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Also, are you ready to commit 8 years to Crawford?
Because after the Werth deal, that’s what it’ll take.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
I didn't realize people took everything I say so seriously
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
No,
I didn’t realize people took everything I say so seriously.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
Back off, OK?!?! Why you gotta be like that, jeez!
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
wash your hands after you flush
it’s not that funny to us who have to use the bathroom after you, thank you very much.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
It all started with Slyde "not knowing shit"
and I tried a Mr. Mom joke. But your comment reminds me of passiveagressivenotes. There are some hilarious ones:
You’re not a black lady with a knife are you?
by ol Pete on Dec 6, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I am a black lady with a knife
But only on Tuesday nights, you’re a day late.
"He’s like if Ron Gant and Eric Davis had a white baby." -- GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Drew Stubbs
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