Reds vs Phillies, Game #2 Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2010 12:38 AM EDT

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Reds and the Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 9:30 PM PST)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob
CIN	PHI	B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt	PHI	65.22%	68.52%

Notes: My simulator and Vegas are in pretty good agreement as to the win probability of the Phillies in Game #2. The simulator feels that Arroyo has been a little lucky on his BABIP this year, which is probably what you see in the difference between the Vegas and Simulator odds. Feel free to take a stab at the five over/under questions for Game #2 as well as a guess at the final score from the table of likely final scores below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. R.Oswalt total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Phillies runs scored minus Reds runs scored: 1.5
4. Reds total bases: 8.5
5. Total HRs in game plus Reds saves: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 PHI 3-2	51 PHI 8-0	101 CIN 9-7
2 PHI 4-3	52 PHI 8-4	102 PHI 11-5
3 PHI 2-1	53 CIN 7-4	103 PHI 12-4
4 PHI 3-1	54 PHI 9-3	104 PHI 10-6
5 PHI 5-4	55 CIN 7-3	105 CIN 9-1
6 PHI 4-2	56 CIN 7-5	106 CIN 9-8
7 CIN 3-2	57 CIN 7-6	107 CIN 10-3
8 PHI 4-1	58 CIN 4-0	108 CIN 10-4
9 PHI 5-2	59 PHI 8-7	109 PHI 13-1
10 CIN 4-3	60 PHI 8-5	110 CIN 10-2
11 CIN 2-1	61 PHI 9-0	111 PHI 13-3
12 PHI 3-0	62 CIN 7-2	112 PHI 13-2
13 PHI 5-3	63 PHI 10-1	113 PHI 10-9
14 PHI 1-0	64 CIN 6-1	114 PHI 13-0
15 PHI 5-1	65 PHI 10-2	115 CIN 8-0
16 PHI 2-0	66 PHI 10-3	116 CIN 10-5
17 PHI 6-5	67 PHI 9-4	117 CIN 10-1
18 PHI 4-0	68 PHI 8-6	118 PHI 10-7
19 CIN 3-1	69 CIN 5-0	119 PHI 11-6
20 PHI 6-3	70 CIN 8-4	120 PHI 14-2
21 CIN 4-2	71 PHI 10-0	121 CIN 10-6
22 CIN 5-4	72 CIN 8-3	122 CIN 11-3
23 PHI 6-2	73 PHI 9-5	123 PHI 13-4
24 PHI 6-1	74 PHI 10-4	124 PHI 14-1
25 PHI 5-0	75 PHI 11-1	125 CIN 10-7
26 CIN 5-3	76 CIN 8-2	126 PHI 14-3
27 PHI 6-4	77 CIN 7-1	127 CIN 9-0
28 PHI 6-0	78 CIN 8-6	128 PHI 12-5
29 PHI 7-2	79 PHI 11-2	129 CIN 11-2
30 PHI 7-1	80 CIN 8-5	130 CIN 10-8
31 CIN 1-0	81 CIN 8-7	131 PHI 10-8
32 CIN 4-1	82 CIN 6-0	132 CIN 11-4
33 CIN 5-2	83 PHI 11-0	133 CIN 11-5
34 PHI 7-3	84 PHI 11-3	134 PHI 14-4
35 PHI 7-6	85 PHI 9-6	135 PHI 12-6
36 CIN 6-5	86 PHI 10-5	136 CIN 10-9
37 CIN 6-4	87 CIN 8-1	137 PHI 11-7
38 PHI 7-4	88 CIN 9-4	138 PHI 13-5
39 PHI 8-1	89 PHI 9-8	139 PHI 14-0
40 PHI 7-0	90 CIN 9-5	140 CIN 11-1
41 PHI 8-2	91 PHI 12-1	141 CIN 11-6
42 CIN 2-0	92 CIN 9-3	142 CIN 10-0
43 CIN 6-3	93 PHI 12-2	143 CIN 12-3
44 PHI 8-3	94 PHI 11-4	144 PHI 11-8
45 PHI 7-5	95 PHI 9-7	145 PHI 15-1
46 CIN 6-2	96 PHI 12-3	146 PHI 12-7
47 CIN 3-0	97 CIN 9-6	147 PHI 15-2
48 PHI 9-1	98 PHI 12-0	148 CIN 11-7
49 PHI 9-2	99 CIN 9-2	149 PHI 14-5
50 CIN 5-1	100 CIN 7-0	150 CIN 12-4

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Comments

#21 CIN 4-2

UOUOO

by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2010 12:39 AM EDT reply actions

I called my 99,5 year old Mother and asked her to break down the next game for me:

Mads - How about that no-hitter Mom, how does it play out for Friday’s game?
Mom: “Shit happens…look we have Dusty Baker and we are going to the WS”
Mads: “What’s your prediction for Friday night’s game?”
Mom: “Bronson Arroyo needs to get his hair cut”
Mads" Who do you think will win?"
Mom “Why the team that scores the most points”
Mads“Who is gonna do that Reds or the Phils?”
Mom“I look for a high scoring game. I give Bronson 5 innings tops.But I think that Jay Bruce is going to have a great game. And that Votto boy too, I say Reds 7 – Phillies 6 in 9 innings, #56.”
Mads: Are you worried about Cordero."
Mom" He pitches like he hasn’t had a good bowel movement in weeks."
Mads" What will you be drinking while watching the game?"
Mom: My usual Maker’s Mark and prune juice on the rocks".

"Ahhh! Yoda's little friend you seek!"
Yoda.

by Madville on Oct 8, 2010 6:53 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs

O/U #5...WTF?

O/U 5. Total HRs in game plus Reds saves: 1.5

I like to gamble a little bit and I even like to gamble on stupid things (parlays, teasers, whatnot) but I’d rather play on some preseason NBA than touch that nonsense.

BTW&FWIW: I’ll say the Reds win 4-1 tonight. Just cuz I like my chances with #32.