Reds Off-season: What do you value more?

Does he know Spanish?

Chapman, Volquez, Cueto, Wood, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey

I’d trade Bailey for Matt Kemp! The Dodgers sure wouldn’t, though.

Leake, Wood, Bailey.

I’d include any of those three in a deal for Kemp. I wonder whether Leake or Wood would have the most trade value. I’d be very inclined to “sell high” on Leake at this point. I love the dude, but I don’t think he’s irreplaceable.

To answer the more general question: If you’re going to re-sign Arroyo, you almost have to trade one of these guys. If they didn’t re-sign him, they could possibly use that money to sign a guy, but since that money is off the table, and Arroyo is guaranteed one of the 5 spots, the starting surplus becomes the org’s greatest asset.

Sorry Andro, but I’m A-ok with packaging up Bailey for a big name …

And Maloney before either.

Alonso and Francisco are the Reds trade chips…and I think it would take both to get a good LF.

the dude was our best pitcher first half and is young and under contract……he throws all his pitches for strikes and is a pitcher and not a thrower….not to mention his ground ball statistics…..id trade volquez for drew though…..dude has and will always have problems throwing strikes and if you cant do that your gonna have trouple….

hes better than gomes in LF right?

My preference is to trade none of them and acquire the LF / 3B in Mark Teahen.

Otherwise, I would say Wood and Cueto are untouchables. Wood is a nutso crazy Browning style lefty that I say we should keep around. Cueto is solid now and, I think, still has upside.

I kinda like Leake and LeCure for the same type of reasons.

I like Volquez lots.

I like Bailey lots… I REALLY liked the Bailey that showed in the post season.

None of them do I say “get rid of the bum”.

Did I tell you I like Mark Teahen?

Just ask the Yankees. They thought they had more pitching than they knew what to do with. And ended up running the likes of Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley out there.

But….you have to give to get. I don’t think the surplus arms would net a SS worth the cost, but they could get us an OFer. If that’s what it takes to get Gomes out of the starting lineup, I’d do it.

Wood= young Browning, you fucking with my childhood if you take him away from me.
Bailey= 1st player I have ever followed from A ball on, I know he has struggled, but I think he has the highest potential to break off a CY Young year, he improves as the season goes on, that’s a big sign of what he can do.
Cueto= Solid, untouchable.
Arroyo= foundation of the staff
Leake= to young and cheap to part with (and may develop into a real hitter)
That leaves Volky, I would let him go, the only trouble is we would be selling low. I dont believe the PED excuse, and Baker likes him too much (why use someone who did a rehap games on 9/1 as your game 1 starter?)
I would go with a rotation of Arroyo, Ceuto, Wood, Bailey, Leake, and that still leaves LeCure who I think is a legit 5th starter.

but hey, we might be desperate.

I’d rather see us spend on a free agent. I really think one will be sufficient for this year (I can handle Janish at SS). Surely we can outbid one of the big boys for a guy like Wyerth, and while he’s going to be expensive (7 years, $105M?) we need to spend that kind of money to get him.

If the markets goes nuts, we may have no choice.

what would it take to get Greinke and DeJesus from the Royals? would you trade Cueto+Leake+Yorman+??

Chapman is probably going to need to get into starter shape in AAA before he cracks the rotation. And it’s pretty unclear what to expect from Mike Leake. He skipped the minors entirely, but could end up there quickly if the league still has him figured like they did in the second half. I wouldn’t be surprised if both those guys start 2011 in AAA. They’ve got the least professional experience and, unlike the rest of the rotation, have to journey back to being effective major league starters again. It’s hard for me to imagine Volquez, Cueto, Bailey or Wood starting in the minors.

I’d be willing, but very reluctant, to trade Leake, Wood, Bailey or Cueto, if it brought back Matt Kemp. I don’t really see anyone else under contract next year who’s attainable and worth getting rid of young SP, except possibly Colby Rasmus (who’s probably off limits for a whole host of reasons). For that reason – and the fact that the SP is not as plentiful as it seems – I’d go the FA route if it all possible.

But whichever way they go, they need to acquire someone who’s in a class above what you could reasonably expect from Heisey, Wlad, Frazier or Sappelt in LF next year. I think that makes the top targets Kemp, Werth and Crawford. Rasmus or Shin-Soo Choo would be great too, but I don’t think either would be available.

Looking up our guys at fangraphs and seeing postseason stats.

I think they have the luxury of standing pat until late in the off-season and even into Spring Training. Teams will come calling for pitching, and If I were the Reds I would spend a lot of time this off-season really trying to determine how much pitching depth I actually have versus the popular perception.

That said, the offense will almost certainly take a step backwards (both for normative reasons and because IMO Rolen is probably in serious decline); therefore, I think the Reds’ first order of business is looking for a RH hitter with highish on base and power potential to try to stave off the effects of the inevitable step backwards. I agree with many here in targeting Matt Kemp and letting SS be a secondary consideration. I think Janish could be okay as a starter, but it looks like SS has become the Dusty Baker Chair for Venerable Veteraness, so I fully expect him to agitate for a Cabreraesque player. Edgar Renteria fills that category. Don’t know if the Giants have decided to pick up his 2011 option.

In any case, it will be interesting to see if the turmoil in the Dodgers’ ownership makes them a more willing or more obstinate trading partner. Might go either way.

Tough question to answer without knowing who are the available FA at SS and LF (and 3B, for that matter) and knowing what Jocketty’s budget is likely to be for 2011, pro forma for all of the arb-eligible players (Votto, Bruce(?), Cueto and Volquez).

Figure that Votto’s arb award cancels out the savings from Harang’s departure (and maybe Jocketty uses the money he saves from Cordero’s 2011 departure to extend Votto). Anyone have any guesses as to what Cueto, Volquez and Bruce will get?

In the abstract, it seems likely that the team can do better than Gomes (replacement level bat, defensively-challenged) in the FA market without trading any of the pitching, and it also seems likely that the team can do better than Cabrera (Royce Clayton bat, defensively meh to bad) in the FA market or just go with Janish (Juan Castro bat, worst case, and defensively stellar) at SS.

Is he a free agent? Is he toast?

Jonny Gomes: The Reds have an option for $1.8 million, which is relatively cheap for a guy who drove in 86 runs.

Bringing him back also gives the Reds time to develop another option, i.e, Heisey, who hit .254 with eight home runs in 97 games this season, or top prospect Todd Frazier, who hit .254 with 32 doubles and 17 home runs in 130 games at Triple-A Louisville.

Jocketty said the Reds would “probably” pick up Gomes’ option.
(Fay)

The 86 RBIs will probably be the clincher, but do they really see him as the solution in LF?

I would give up Leake or maybe Wood, plus probably some other minor leaguer, if we net a young shortstop with real top of the order potential. That puts Phillips in the 2-spot, where he will thrive batting ahead of Votto, and keeps Stubbs in a run-producing spot lpower in the order.

Question is: what young SS is out there?

Chapman was #3, Alonso #11.

END didn’t make the list.

young, major league ready, inexpensive, effective starting pitching. Recent history suggests that if the Reds are to give up any of it they can expect a solid-to-substantial return.
   Many of the recent trades involving such pitchers have resulted in the acquisition of front end starters such as Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay or Roy Oswalt. Teams that give up good, young, cost-controlled pitching tend to want a sure-fire veteran ace, but not always.
   Players acquired in recent deals that centered on such young pitchers include Edwin Jackson, Oswalt, Peavy, Scott Rolen, Juan Pierre, Curtis Granderson, Victor Martinez and Austin Kearns. While some of those deals were quite involved, even three-team swaps, the young pitching going the other way included J.A. Happ, Chris Richard, Zach Stewart, John Ely, Max Scherzer, Dan Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister. We can quibble that Stewart and McAllister weren’t as ready as were the others, but they’re highly regarded young arms just the same. Include Phil Coke, as well, since Detroit plans to move him to the rotation in 2011.
   Throw in the complicated deal involving Halladay and Lee and we can add Kyle Drabek to the list. To a lesser extent, Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez comes into play, but Seattle considered Morrow a reliever so it’s not an ideal fit.
   Sure there were a few not-insignificant players/prospects involved in some of these deals, but the young pitching was the key to all of these trades. That bodes well for the Reds if they want to deal from their strength.
   Still, a team never can have enough pitching, particularly starters. The minors hold a wealth of position players, but not an overwhelming number of particularly promising arms. When dealing pitching, proceed with caution.

The Reds will keep Gomes
Not Trade Bailey
Resign SloCab
Not find any takers for END
Try Alonso in LF
And will work like hell to find a power hitting 3bman

If they trade any pitchers it will Leake or Maloney or LeCure. (With END thrown in).