FanPost

Phillies vs Reds, Game #3 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and the Reds using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:30 AM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 PHI CIN C.Hamels vs J.Cueto PHI 55.46% 55.64%

 

Notes:  Very good agreement between Vegas and the simulator today.  Should be a very close game.  Hopefully for the Reds the good Johnny Cueto shows up.  Get your game score and five over/under guesses in in the comments below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. J.Cueto total batters faced: 25.5
3. Reds number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
4. C.Hamels total strikeouts: 6.5
5. Reds extra base hits minus Phillies extra base hits: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 

1 CIN 3-2   51 CIN 7-4   101 CIN 10-4
2 CIN 4-3   52 PHI 8-4   102 CIN 8-0
3 CIN 2-1   53 PHI 7-0   103 CIN 10-2
4 PHI 3-2   54 CIN 7-2   104 PHI 10-7
5 PHI 2-1   55 CIN 7-5   105 PHI 12-4
6 PHI 4-3   56 CIN 7-3   106 PHI 12-3
7 CIN 5-4   57 CIN 5-0   107 PHI 12-1
8 PHI 3-1   58 PHI 9-2   108 CIN 9-7
9 PHI 4-2   59 PHI 8-5   109 CIN 10-1
10 CIN 3-1   60 PHI 9-3   110 PHI 11-0
11 CIN 4-2   61 CIN 7-1   111 PHI 12-2
12 PHI 4-1   62 PHI 9-1   112 CIN 11-2
13 PHI 5-3   63 PHI 9-4   113 CIN 10-5
14 PHI 5-2   64 PHI 8-0   114 CIN 9-0
15 PHI 5-4   65 PHI 8-6   115 CIN 11-3
16 CIN 1-0   66 CIN 8-2   116 PHI 12-0
17 CIN 5-3   67 CIN 8-7   117 PHI 13-3
18 PHI 1-0   68 PHI 10-2   118 PHI 11-6
19 CIN 6-5   69 CIN 8-3   119 PHI 12-5
20 CIN 4-1   70 CIN 6-0   120 PHI 10-8
21 PHI 5-1   71 PHI 10-1   121 CIN 10-9
22 PHI 3-0   72 CIN 8-4   122 PHI 13-2
23 PHI 2-0   73 CIN 8-5   123 CIN 10-6
24 CIN 5-2   74 CIN 8-6   124 PHI 10-9
25 PHI 6-3   75 PHI 8-7   125 CIN 11-1
26 PHI 6-2   76 PHI 9-0   126 CIN 10-7
27 PHI 6-4   77 PHI 10-3   127 CIN 10-8
28 CIN 2-0   78 PHI 10-4   128 CIN 11-4
29 PHI 6-1   79 PHI 9-5   129 PHI 12-6
30 PHI 6-5   80 CIN 8-1   130 PHI 13-1
31 PHI 4-0   81 CIN 7-0   131 PHI 13-4
32 CIN 3-0   82 PHI 9-6   132 CIN 10-0
33 CIN 6-3   83 CIN 9-2   133 PHI 11-7
34 PHI 7-3   84 PHI 11-2   134 CIN 11-5
35 CIN 6-4   85 CIN 9-3   135 PHI 13-0
36 CIN 5-1   86 PHI 11-3   136 PHI 11-8
37 PHI 7-2   87 PHI 9-7   137 PHI 13-5
38 PHI 5-0   88 PHI 10-5   138 CIN 12-3
39 PHI 7-1   89 PHI 10-0   139 PHI 14-4
40 PHI 7-4   90 CIN 9-4   140 CIN 11-6
41 CIN 7-6   91 CIN 9-1   141 PHI 14-3
42 CIN 6-2   92 CIN 9-8   142 CIN 12-4
43 PHI 7-5   93 CIN 9-5   143 PHI 14-2
44 CIN 4-0   94 PHI 11-4   144 CIN 12-2
45 PHI 6-0   95 PHI 11-1   145 PHI 14-1
46 PHI 8-2   96 CIN 9-6   146 PHI 11-9
47 CIN 6-1   97 PHI 9-8   147 PHI 12-7
48 PHI 8-3   98 CIN 10-3   148 CIN 12-1
49 PHI 8-1   99 PHI 10-6   149 CIN 11-0
50 PHI 7-6   100 PHI 11-5   150 CIN 12-6
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