Toward a 2010 Depth Chart: Left Field (Part I)

The "Toward a 2010 Depth Chart" series, which no one specifically asked for, marches on. Let me quickly recap the findings to date:

At shorstop, we produced the following power ranking of the Reds options. Voting seemed to reflect the very likely scenario in which the Paul Janish starts the season at shortstop. I'm not sure where Chris Burke fits, but I'll make him the anchor:

1. Maicer Izturis/Erick Aybar/Brandon Wood ("One of")
2. Paul Janish
3. Reid Brignac
4. Mike Fontenot
5. Kevin Frandsen
6. Drew Sutton
7. Jhonny Peralta
8. Chris Burke

The optimal depth chart entry for SS might be something close to:

1. Izturis (75%)
2. Janish (20%)
3. Sutton (5%)

While the likely depth chart will be similar to:

1. Janish (75%)
2. Sutton (15%)
3. Rosales (10%)
4. Burke (Minors)

For the fifth starter spot, 103 Red Reporters have voted, yielding these results:

1. Matt Maloney - 37%
2. Micah Owings - 22%
3. Travis Wood - 19%
4. Fausto Carmona - 10%
5. Mark Mulder - 6%

Considering that Carmona would require a trade to procure - and, as Scrabbles observes, the Indians are pitching-poor, we can probably strike him right away.

The optimal depth chart entry for the entire starting rotation is probably:

1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Homer Bailey
5. Matt Maloney (80%)
6. Micah Owings (20% - middle relief / swingman role)
7. Travis Wood (Minors - Mid-season callup?)
8. Mike Leake (Minors - September callup?)

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The third of the three biggest question marks on the Reds roster for 2010, along with SS and the back of the rotation, is left field. A right-handed power bat was the much-ballyhooed "biggest priority" during the 2008-09 offseason. As close followers of the team will recall, the Reds decided to spend guaranteed dollars on Jerry Hairston and Willy Taveras, while signing minor league contracts with Jonny Gomes, Darnell McDonald, Jacque Jones and Daryle Ward. Hardly a king's ransom - though once allowed on the team, Gomes did fulfill the role of right-handed power bat admirably, to the tune of a 127 OPS+ and 20 HRs in 314 PAs.

There's healthy debate about how much Gomes' defensive inadequacy cuts into his value, but now that his non-tender is a fait accompli, the Reds have no left fielder on the roster who has hit reliably for power over a full season in the major leagues - and certainly not against both righties and lefties. As always, the Reds don't appear to have the money to acquire a free agent even marginally better than their in-house options and their trade leverage is not great. I'll offer my usual bit about the fact that it's simply bad timing for the Reds to trade anyone - prospects or established guys - before the deadline. There's a perponderance of Reds between major league and AAA levels primed for breakouts or requiring just a little more seasoning to gauge how they might factor into 2011.

That said, the Reds are looking at a pretty fractured landscape in LF for 2010. There will almost certainly be some kind of two or three way time-sharing scheme, especially considering the platoon splits of hitters at the Reds' disposal. Let's start the investigation by considering left field candidates against left-handed pitching.

Chris Dickerson

Maybe the most important thing you can say about Dickerson is that he's been misunderstood by the Reds organization - and at least a little bit underappreciated. While Red Reporters seem to regard him as a great athlete with a legitimate claim to being a starting CF (at least against RHP), the Reds see him as primarily a corner outfielder whose platoon splits would limit him to a part-time role. He's more valuable as a CF-cum-LFer, but let's consider him firmly in the mix for a LF job. His platoon splits are pretty stark, but his aggregate .283/.383/.440 MLB line is nothing at which to sneeze.

Minors vs. LHP: .223/.328/.319

Minors lifetime: .248/.254/.422

Majors vs. LHP (70 PAs): .259/.362/.345

Majors lifetime: 283/.383/.440

MLB WAR (Fangraphs): 1.4 ('08), 1.7 ('09)

UZR/150 (LF, 434 Innings): 13.9

Fan Scouting Report: Scored highest among Reds left-fielders and 7th on the team overall

Wladimir Balentien

My Wladdy Balentien, aside from being the most important shoegaze band of all time, was once a highly-regarded prospect in the Mariners organization. He hit for power throughout his minor league career, though his bizarro splits favor him against righties. He's something of a mystery still, having arrived mid-season in 2009, dealt by Seattle for Robert Manuel. Many of us liked what we saw in his limited action with the Reds, in which he went .264/.352/.427. There's a not-unreasonable hope that his bat has finally woken up in the majors and that he may provide power as part of a LF platoon. His defense appears to be somewhere south of Dickerson and north of Gomes.

Minors vs. LHP: .241/.343/.469

Minors lifetime: .270/.347/.509

Majors vs. LHP (173 PAs): .190/.254/.316

Majors lifetime (559 PAs): .221/.281/.374

MLB WAR (Fangraphs): 0.1('07), -1.2 ('08), 0.8 ('09)

UZR/150 (LF, 538 Innings): 17.5

Fan Scouting Report: Reds fans ranked him 3rd among LFers, behind Nix and Dickerson. Seattle fans gave him slightly lower ratings.

Chris Heisey

Heisey is another perplexing case. Everyone is thrilled, impressed and even a little bit enchanted by his recent success in the minors. If even you're skeptical, the word "fluke" is a woeful misnomer for Heisey's performance, which has seen steady and sustained improvement throughout his pro career. But the question remains: What does it all mean? Not in any cosmic sense,  but simply whether or not Chris Heisey is playing with house money or he has a future as a regular outfielder in the major leagues. This season - with a tight payroll, an open field of candidates in LF and Heisey at a critical age - is when the Reds should test his mettle. Todd Frazier will have another season under his belt in 2011, while the Reds will be arriving at D-Day for the Alonso-Votto decision. 

Heisey's splits against LHP alone are staggering enough to justify competing for a spot out of spring training. His CF-caliber defense solidifies his case. For my part, I would argue that while Heisey would benefit from more AAA-experience, the Reds' needs might be great enough to justify trying Heisey in left out of the gates.  He's too old to worry about service clock or the need to develop much longer by being afforded a playing time every day, while not having the ceiling to justify holding out for either a full-time MLB spot or to be packaged in a blockbuster. 

Minors vs. LHP: .344/.419/.510

Minors lifetime: .300/.372/.462

AAA vs. LHP (55 AB): .345/.429/.545

AAA lifetime: .285/.339/.469

Arizona Fall League 2009 (91 AB): .297/.379/.593

AFL vs. LHP: 5-17, 3 XBH, 5 BB

Juan Francisco

Personally, I'm higher on Francisco than many who glance at his OBP and write him off. He has the potential to weild a high-impact, cost-controlled power bat which could provide the much-needed pop the Reds need for a few seasons when, and if, the club starts getting competitive in 2011.  But let's get real: El Nino Destuctor is not the answer against lefties to start the 2010 season. With Rolen locked into an extension, his future in the Reds organization is in LF, but he's not even slated to play there in Louisville at the outset this year. I don't have much of a handle on what his defense would look like in left field, but I don't think his skill set is anything we need to rush north to start the season, especially with Wlad on hand. His performance in a MLB espresso in September of last year - along with his numbers in the Dominican winter league are very heartening - and may portend some improved plate discipline. Depending on how the 1B-LF logjam shakes out, I'd be glad to see Juan Francisco with the big league club in the near future.

Verka's Eyewitness encounter with E.N.D.

Majors 2009 (21 AB): .429/.520/.619

Dominican Winter League '09 (182 AB): .302/.352/.566

AA-AAA 2009: .295/.329/.518

Minors vs. LHP: .253/.281/.412

Minors lifetime: .281/.311/.482

Todd Frazier

He's the org's number one prospect both here at Red Reporter and Baseball America, but he's still without a position to call his own - or perhaps he has too many positions. The plan seems to be to start him off in left field with the Bats, which makes a great deal of sense. If he really is the best talent in the system, LF is the position that puts him on a fast track to the majors - given the lack of blockage there and the position's inherent ease of use defensively. If the scouting is to be believed - and Frazier will never be a shortstop - the question persists as to whether is bat plays better in LF than his co-workers on this list.

Like Heisey, his splits vs. LHP are very alluring, but unlike Heisey, he's not yet 24 (though will be soon) and has more legitimate "prospect status," which suggests he might should play fulltime at AAA until he can play fulltime in the majors. Taken with the fact that he's just been moved to LF, it's a source of great uncertainty when and where Frazier will be ready to contribute in The Show.

Minors vs. LHP: .334/.406/.576

Minors lifetime: .296/.367/.490

AA-AAA '09 vs. LHP: .325/.380/.523

AA-AAA '09: .292/.351/.481

Laynce Nix

Daynce Mix signed a minor league deal with the Reds after being outrighted off the 40 man roster. With the exception of Madville, Red Reporters met this move with widespread indifference. While he displayed a goodly among of power last season, his inability to get on base at even a .300 OBP clip cuts deep into his value. He's been pretty well insulated from lefties in his major league career - and for good reason. His .179/.220/.263 line against lefties in 156 ABs shows why. While his .272/.328/.489 line against lefties in the minors isn't bad, but it's clear that his power stroke is sapped when pitches seem to be coming at right at him. Truly, a poor man's poor man's reverse Johnny Gomes who plays Better Defense.

Josh Anderson

Acquired only days a go and signed to a minor league deal, Anderson is a bit of a head-scratcher. The Reds already have, arguably, four big-league capable CF: Stubbs, Dickerson, Heisey and Taveras, where Anderson's offensive skills play better. His defense is supposedly better suited for the corner outfield spots, where the Reds already have a glut of players, most of which have superior power bats. His numbers vs. left handers are worse than Nix's and frankly might result in a frivolous libel suit if printed here. Like Nix, he provides good defense on the corners - and good speed too - but precious little else. If the Reds can take pride in anything, it's their stockpile of CF-capable outfielders. If you add Bruce and Nix, I count 7 along with Stubbs, Dickerson, Heisey, Taveras and Anderson. There is absolutely no excuse for that position not to be league average this year.

External Possibilities:

Nelson Cruz

Supposedly available, at least as of mid-December, Cruz was a controversial topic here. I'm going to paste in some remarks I made previously: Cruz tore his way through the minors the last couple of years, but in his age 26 through 28 seasons – and in the PCL. It’s not that Cruz isn’t good, but he's unlikely to be as good as his 3.4 WAR season last year suggest and, assuming he's available, he’s not worth the risk, considering what the Reds have on hand. Cruz would likely require one of the Reds Top 5 prospects in order to wrest away from the Rangers. All provisos aside, Cruz does have gorgeous minor league splits against LHP (though clearly he'd been acquired to man the position fulltime) and offers excellent corner OF defense.

2009 MLB vs. LHP: .235/.320/.432

2009 MLB: .260/.332/.524

Lifetime MLB vs. LHP: .242/.314/.740

Lifetime MLB:  .255/.321/.473

Lifetime minors vs. LHP: .345/.432/.586

Lifetime minors: .313/.399/.594

WAR (Fangraphs): -0.1 ('07), 1.6 ('08), 3.6 ('09)

UZR/150 (corner OF, 1049.2 innings): 11.7

Jonny Gomes

It's saddening to have to put his name in this category, but those who rankled at his non-tender must remember that Gomes' value is wrapped up entirely in his bat. The Reds would be likely be an improved team if they were able to sign Gomes at one year for $2MM or so - and his ability to hit lefties for power, which could provide half of a league average bat for LF, has very real value for the Reds. Just the same, they might be able to get his value for league minimum, with a very real chance of eclipsing it given the defensive prowess of Dickerson and Heisey. He's a cool badass and I enjoyed rooting for him, while secretly hoping a bench-clearing brawl would break out during his tenure with the team.

2010 Projected WAR (JinAZ):  0.4 WAR  per full season

2009 vs. LHP (111 PA): .307/.369/.545 

2009 totals: .267/.338/.541

Lifetime majors vs. LHP: .274/.369/.517

Lifetime majors: .241/.330/.471

WAR (Fangraphs): 0.0 ('07), -.1.2 ('08), 0.6 ('09)

UZR/150 (Corner OF): -22.5

Brian Giles

Here's what Petey had to say: "He had a horrible year last year, but it was mostly due to a pair of 12-game slumps. A minor-league deal WIST would be well-spent on an OBP machine who would be a no-risk/high-reward candidate while Heisey, Frazier, and END get a bit more seasoning. The Reds have already expressed interest." It's also worth noting that he was caught on tape allegedly beating his pregnant girlfriend and had the second-worst BABIP in baseball. An unlucky season or karma at work? Just what I'd like to see the Reds do: replace our 29-year old sombrero-wearing compadre who beat up egomaniacs in defense of his teammates with a 39-year old egomaniac who beat up a pregnant woman.

vs RHP liftetime: .302/.414/.544

vs LHP lifetime: .262/.363/.400

Ryan Church

I don't really know anything about Ryan Church, but I think he was non-tendered by the Braves. If they can't pay Gomes, they probably can't pay Church either, but he's still someone to keep in mind purely as an indicator of the upper limit for what the Reds could afford on the free agent market this offseason while comparison shopping alongside Gomes. His platoon splits against lefties in the majors are poor, but he plays above average corner outfield defense.