Red Reposter - Anyone Have a Poking Stick? Someone Should Make Sure the Reds Aren't Dead...
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 4, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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The Most Wonderful Time of the Year is usually the quietest time of the year for baseball. The Reds haven't made any really interesting news in quite a while, but Slyde gave me a quota to fill when he left and he said if I didn't do it, he'd never talk to me again. Of course, he said the same thing when I got him a Cubs mug as a joke in our RR Secret Santa this year, but then he was high-5ing me an hour later when we won the Wii bowling tournament. I'm not gonna take any chances though. Anyway, here's some baseball to talk about.
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Sheldon asks 10 questions about the Reds for 2010
Here's a sample:
"3. Will Jay Bruce be better than last season? After a sophomore season in which he batted only .223, Bruce has to rebound for the Reds to have a chance to be taken seriously in the NL Central (see question No. 1). Set to turn 23 before Opening Day, the right fielder was prone to striking out by expanding his own strike zone and chasing. A two-month stay on the disabled list with a broken right wrist from July 12-Aug. 13 didn't help his development. But he came back and performed better when he batted .375 (12-for-32) with four homers over his final 12 games. Bruce said he made footwork adjustments in the batters' box, and it was clear he was taking more of the bad pitches." -
Doug Gray takes a look at Todd Frazier's 2009 season
Frazier spent most of the season in AA, splitting time between LF and 2B before a promotion to AAA for their playoff run. I'm excited to see this kid. Be sure to vote in the Prospect Rankings. -
Travis Wood was named MiLB's AA starter of the year
His giant leap forward is said to be due in large part to the addition of a cutter to his repertoire. I'm excited to see this kid. Be sure to vote in the Prospect Rankings. -
Matt Snyder at FanHouse has New Year's resolutions for every team
Here's what he has for the Reds:
"The Reds should resolve to quit wasting resources. You can't whine about being a small market team and waste money on Willy Taveras and a closer (Francisco Cordero is good, but there's no reason to pay a closer so much unless you are a mega-market team). There's also no reason to trade for a washed up Scott Rolen (and then extend his contract). Oh, and Dusty Baker: please stop using starters in relief." - That's pretty much it on the Reds front. Not only has the team been quiet due to the holidays, but most of the internet has been as well. No biggy though, we can take a look at what the rest of the NL Central has been up to:
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The Cardinals look pretty close to re-signing Matt Holliday
Unfortunately for Holliday, there don't seem to be any other suitors out there for him. The deal will likely exceed $100 mil though. I wonder if the Cards will have the money for both Holliday and Pujols. -
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs thinks the Marlon Byrd signing is a decent one for the Cubs
According to Cameron, Byrd is a solidly average player and the contract he signed pays him like one. Nothing wrong with that for the Cubs. Of course, I love watching the Cubs throw money at mediocrity. Especially mediocrity with a little bit of tread-wear trying to play a premium defensive position like Byrd. -
Charlie at Bucs Dugout tells us what to expect from the 2010 Pirates
His first prediction is that "The Pirates will finish fifth in the NL Central, ahead of the Astros. They will not, however, finish anywhere near .500." Call me crazy, but I think the Pirates are better than that.
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Seconded
Also, the Byrd deal reminds me of the Cubs signing DeRosa from Texas a few years back. That looked like an overpay for a late bloomer, but he turned out alright for them. FWIW the hitting coach for Texas is joining the Cubs next year, which might help Byrd or at least prevent him from regressing. We’ll see.
Byrd
has seen nothing until the Chicago media land on his back.
It’s brutal in that city.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
Byrd also played in Philly a few years
I think he can handle it. I don’t get the impression he’s as thin-skinned as Milton Bradley. Not to say that this is a great signing; his power could be a Texas mirage.
by ken on Jan 4, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
He'll turn 23 this year, and I wouldn't expect to see him before the rosters expand
Unless, of course, there are trades/injuries before then, so, yes, expect to see him this year.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
FRAZIER
The boy can hit and the Reds need offense.
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
If he can hit, then why isn't he a Red yet?
Seems like his lack of defense is keeping him off the 25 man roster, not to mention the fact that I don’t think his bat is any better than anything we’re currently starting at a position he can maybe attempt to play.
Right now, Frazier could only play LF for us.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 5, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
He's young and wasn't quite ready...but watch out in 2010
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
The Pirates
blew up their team last year. I’d predict a worse season for them this year, except it’s hard to be worse than dead last. Their usual spot. Bucs Dugout is probably being optimistic. As we’re all allowed to be at this time of year.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Buckaroos
Pirates are like all the other bottom feeders in baseball (Reds, included) and it shows when key players go on the DL. There isn’t anybody down on the farm who can turn around those streaks where you win 2 out of 12 or none out of 7 on a road trip. Anything over there who is optimistic could also be interested in some good real estate on Mars.
Let’s hope the Reds are past this sort of folly.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
They've got some nice prospects
They’ve been churning players and drafting high long enough to overcome their attitude or ineptitude or whatever it is. I’ll bet if the new CBA doesn’t let them pocket revenue sharing, the team will change.
OK OK OK
Sheldon looks at a young player and says “uhhh, he’s still young and his feet are different”
Doug looks at a young player and gives us a whole lot of sweet charts and graphs and smart prognostication.
Why is the wrong one being paid to write?
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
perhaps the people should rise up
Mads ought to enjoy leading the revolution.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Evolverevolevolerevole etc.
As a youth I fought in the war and then later I fought again in the Psychedelic Wars – I got use the same uniform in both
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
by Madville on Jan 4, 2010 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
b/c Doug has some unhealthy manlove for Reds prospects
He’ll defend a Reds prospect until he’s blue in the face, and cherry-pick stats with the best of them to prove whatever point he’s trying to make about how great a Reds prospect is.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 5, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Except, he's right more often than someone like Sheldon is
And when he makes the charts and graphs, he puts more work in than someone who gets paid for it. I’m not sure how your cheap shot at Doug is even an argument at Scrabbles’ point.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jan 5, 2010 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
I'm saying I'd rather read Sheldon than Doug, b/c Doug cannot seem to separate himself from those on which he reports
And it wasn’t a cheapshot @ Doug at all, but rather support for Sheldon
Carry on
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 5, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think "unhealthy man love" is a cheap shot
Doug has well-reasoned assessments for not just Reds but other teams’ prospects. I don’t see a streak of favoritism at all. From the other thread, he doesn’t seem nearly as high on Travis Wood compared with several posters, just as one example. I also recall him not being as high on Maloney as some others here.
To your point below, surely you recognize that the children need to be our future. We’re not the Yankees.
by ken on Jan 6, 2010 6:27 AM EST up reply actions
I know Doug from his musings on another Reds fan-board, so I'm familiar with his bias towards prospects (regardless of the team)
“Unhealthy man love” is just an observation from different media outlets (so to speak).
I’d love for the children to be the Reds future, but during The Lost Decade the Reds have hardly developed any prospects, so is it our prospects sucked, or our farm sucked, or both?
I’m appropriately skeptical about any Reds prospects, since they’ve recently proven to not help the big club at all. Sure, we can argue about prospects til we’re blue in the face, but we just don’t have impact players that come from our farm, and that’s what we need. We need homegrown impact players.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 6, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Joey Votto
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Jay Bruce
-———————————-
Drew Stubbs
Chris Dickerson
Paul Janish
Ryan Hanigan
now, i agree that it’s arguable to say that any of these guys is an “impact” player right now, but that’s half a side this team has produced in just the past 2 years. and a number of those guys have the potential to become impact players.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 6, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Don't go pickin' your peaches before they're fuzzed up right
Votto’s a given, and I want to put Cueto in there as well, and even possibly Dickerson (if only The Dusty didn’t hate him and would play him), but….
Bailey’s basically had a solid 9 game stretch to end a season. Aside from that, his major league contributions have been few and far between.
Jay Bruce needs to bounce back from last year’s struggles and improve upon his rookie season numbers before we put him in the “impact” category
Drew Stubbs has had a small cup of coffee, and that’s it. In the process, he’s completely flipped the script on who/what he is at the plate. I have a feeling that if he sees regular playing time in 2010, you’ll see his SLG and OBP flip flop (which I think is better for him as a player anyway), but he’ll still be a sub .700 OPS who’s only @ the MLB level b/c the Reds lack depth and talent, and Stubbs also happens to play a little bit of D. Bottomline, if he plays for a good team, he’s still in the minors where he belongs. Fortunately for Drew, he plays for the Reds, so he’s a major leaguer by default.
Janish is similar to Stubbs, except hits even less. All glove, no stick. Only on the MLB roster b/c he is a warm body and plays excellent defense. Hardly “impact”.
Hanigan unfortunately doesn’t play enough to be “impact” yet, but that’s The Dusty’s fault. So, maybe we’ll put Hanigan in the maybe category.
All in all, however, our farm doesn’t and hasn’t produced “impact” players.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 6, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
i understand
it’s true that these guys havent produced yet. Votto is an impact player right now, but of the guys i listed he’s the only one. but i think the years of organizational flaccidity have colored your view of prospects. these guys are not BJ Syzmanski, Brandon Larson, and Gookie Dawkins.
and more to my point, while only a few of these guys may end up being impact players, the rest are pretty solid bets to be league-average. filling your roster with home-grown, cheap, league-average talent is a good thing. let’s not lose sight of that.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 6, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry but this is just a flat out bad argument:
Drew Stubbs has had a small cup of coffee, and that’s it. In the process, he’s completely flipped the script on who/what he is at the plate.
So your saying his major league numbers don’t matter, but based on those numbers you think he’s flipped the script? maybe I’m not following what you mean there.
I have a feeling that if he sees regular playing time in 2010, you’ll see his SLG and OBP flip flop (which I think is better for him as a player anyway), but he’ll still be a sub .700 OPS who’s only @ the MLB level b/c the Reds lack depth and talent
so you’re basing your argument completely on how you “feel” he might do. I don’t expect him to launch a ton of bombs either, but you don’t run into 8 of them in 196 PA by accident. of course its likely his SLG will drop, but its not like he has no power, it’s there, and that’s a big plus for anyone trying to stick in the big leagues. and of course, he ‘s going to be utterly useless if he OPS’s .700, never mind the fact that he….
also happens to play a little bit of D
but of course, even if he plays good defense he’s only as valuable as his bat. you know, since its common knowledge that a players defense isn’t as important to his overall value.
Bottomline, if he plays for a good team, he’s still in the minors where he belongs. Fortunately for Drew, he plays for the Reds, so he’s a major leaguer by default.
so your saying that a good team, who is likely to have good players better than stubbs, would have him in the minors (I went, “yeah, no shit” when I read that) and that he’s lucky to be in the majors because he plays for the Reds. so your argument is ‘he must suck, he plays for the Reds’.
I’m gonna have to side with doug on this. Even if he is a little biased at times (which hardly matters anyway) at least he’s using statistics and observation, instead of gut feelings.
I'm sure Doug is well aware of the general attrition rate for prospects
And he doesn’t think that all Top 25 guys are going to be stars. I recall him not thinking very highly of Brett Wallace, for one.
Also, nobody is saying that all of a team’s A and B prospects will turn into productive players, but we are producing several guys who have or should shortly help us. Will Frazier, Heisey, Francisco, Leake, etc., etc. all turn into starters for us? No. But with good coaching and management a healthy majority should.
Would you rather hear/read overly optimistic wool pulled over our eyes reports about our I-71 Saviors,
or would you rather read the status quo dreck that only Sheldon can give us based on the current product on the field? It’s like choosing how would you rather die? Drown, or burned alive?
I don’t believe the children are our future. I mean you can certainly teach them well, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lead the way. Whitney Houston had it all wrong.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 6, 2010 2:36 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think he has an optimistic bias
But you have to understand that that’s his site’s specialty. It’s called Reds Minor Leagues because that’s what it’s about, and he’s going to spotlight players who he thinks are going to help the team in the long run.
Don’t believe the children are our future? Remember that just 2-3 years ago, our top prospects were Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto. Maybe Whitney is on to something.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jan 6, 2010 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Only 2 of which, Votto & Cueto have left their positive mark
As I posted above, Homer’s had 1 solid 9 game stretch to end a season, and aside from that his MLB career is easily forgettable.
Bruce needs to bounce back from last year’s stinker before we crown him anything.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 6, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
I do enjoy the posters who act like Manny Ramirez and Derek Jeter were never prospects
(They were BA’s minor league player of the year in consecutive seasons)
Sure, some guys miss too, but don’t act like prospects will never work out. Bruce is already league average, as is Hanigan (like you said, with actual playing time)
Homer was one of the youngest pitchers in the league this year, so there’s a good chance of him continuing to progress and being serviceable at the least this year.
You also can’t compare the Schott/Bowden era Reds to the current FO staff. Yes, our farm system sucked for a long time, but there are some really smart people in the FO now, so to say that Todd Frazier won’t work out because BJ Syzmanski didn’t is a logical fallacy and really unfair to Chris Buckley and his team.
About Frazier, he isn’t blocked. Part of Buckley and Terry Reynolds’ deal is that they move most prospects slowly, and Frazier has barely had any time in AAA. It’s not like he’s been in AAA for a year and a half waiting for an opening on the big club. You can bet that if he tears it up he’ll be on the team before the end of the year—They’ll find him a place to play.
Finally, you need to lay off of Doug, because you seriously don’t know what you are talking about. Doug understands how to evaluate young players and prospects. If a guy has good developmental signs (like Alonso or Frazier) he’s high on them, if they don’t (like Francisco) he’s not. Go actually read his site and you’ll see plenty of realistic views on what different guys bring to the table.
Speaking of Sheldon
Apparently he’s going to go after some minor league deals with upside, ala Johnny Gomes. Notably, they are apparently interested in Noah Lowry. Not sure how I feel about that…….ok I guess, as long as it is a minor league deal with any MLB deal incentive laden.
Sorry, i take it back,
I guess they aren’t interested now…..guess I should’ve read the article first
You can't whine about being a small market team and waste money on Willy Taveras and a closer (Francisco Cordero is good, but there's no reason to pay a closer so much unless you are a mega-market team).
Although it doesn’t excuse moves like these, this exactly why small market clubs should be whining. Teams in Boston, NY, LA, etc can afford to make these dumb moves. In fact, for a team like the Yankees, a move like signing a closer to big bucks actually improves their club because it adds depth with possibility of handcuffing the team financially.
Yesterday I watched the NY football Giants get creamed by the small market Vikings. I realized, finally, that baseball is the only major sport in which teams from the biggest cities are expected to be at or near the top of the league year after year.
I don't get it
Small market teams aren’t supposed to sign top-level closers?
The Taveras signing only looks bad in hindsight.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
taveras
I’m sensing an elitist attitude across this board on Taveras that I can safely say was not all that prevalent a year ago.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
read the thread Cy linked to below
there was plunny of attitude.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 4, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
standing corrected (sheepish grin)
Why didn’t you folks alert me that you were unhappy?
I’da fixed this for you.
But you can’t blame Adam Dunn on me. Don’t EVEN try.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
Horseshit
Although there was some lukewarm optimism, most RR’s blanched at the thought of Traveris ever contributing much for the money that he was given.Or much period.
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
no,
it looks pretty bad in foresight, too.
And no, small market teams aren’t supposed to sign top-level closers. They’re supposed to develop them.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Jan 4, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
"They’re supposed to develop them."
for 4 years, and then watch them sign a big deal and win a ring in New York.
by Eastwindquinn on Jan 4, 2010 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
if you get four good years out of a reliever, you've got a hell of a reliever
so yeah, offer arb, let him walk, and collect hte first round pick. He’s not offering you more than 2 WAR anyways.
I’d basically only sign corner outfielders and corner infielders to big deals if I ran a team, outside of the guys you just can’t let walk (Mauer, Hanley, even solid cornerstones like Phillips). Everyone else just has too much variation that it oculd burn you.
Of course, that’s in an ideal world. I’m not nearly that heartless. If I’m GM, I’m signing Dickerson to a 6-year deal with a signing bonus of my daughter.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Adrian Beltre about to sign with Boston
1 year/9M with a player option for the second year for 5M. I know he’s coming off a bad year, but so would I had I ruptured my testicles. Seems like a slick move for Boston.
I played football in HS with a guy....
…who took a facemask to his junk (didn’t wear a cup) and got a fractured testicle. Apparently it caused a lot of swelling, so he went around and told everyone he had bigger balls than everyone.
Anyway…..
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
He fractured it? Must've been a bone in there
amiright?
by nycredsfan on Jan 5, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That is what he said
I guess it cracked……which just makes me want to throw up.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Our QB had to have one removed due to cancer too
We had balls issues I guess……all 3 of mine are still in place.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
by btcoop71 on Jan 5, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
One more and Dusty'll never let you play...
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
by crolfer on Jan 5, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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