Toward a 2010 Depth Chart: Starting Pitching
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 4, 2010 2:17 PM EST
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I took a cold shower after my mini-obsession about the Reds 2010 shortstop situation and am now ready to consider the 2010 starting rotation. My hope is that, through reasoned consideration, group consensus and wishful speculation, we can draft a reasonable major league depth chart for 2010 - the sum total of an optimal 25-man lineup given the Reds finances and available talent.
To re-cap the shortstop dicussion: 227 votes were cast over three polls. The leading responses fell into two categories, broadly interpreted:
38.7% of voters said they would like to see Janish as the opening day starter or sharing starts with Drew Sutton
36.1% of voters said they would like to see the Reds pursue a trade or signing that would yield a potential starter for 2010
I think a reasonable interpretation of these results, based on polling and thread responses, would be something like: "We're OK with Janish holding down the fort unless someone better is attainable, but don't sell the farm to do it."
And to put the capper on things, here's my ranking of 2010-ready SS possibilities the Reds could actually hope to consider this offseason, considering risk-reward:
- Maicer Izturis/Erick Aybar/Brandon Wood ("One of")
- Paul Janish
- Reid Brignac
- Mike Fontenot
- Kevin Frandsen
- Drew Sutton
- Jhonny Peralta
- Angel Sanchez
The optimal depth chart entry for SS might be something close to:
Izturis (75%)
Janish (20%)
Sutton (5%)
----
Now what of this starting pitching? Let's take as an assumption that even if Arroyo and Harang are unloaded, the Reds would still not have the means to acquire a front-of-rotation starter to replace them. So the upper limit to what the Reds can expect to accomplish for 2010 is to acquire a back-of-rotation guy, with a more likely outcome being an in-house solution.
Here are the options I see as realistic - and given that stricture, worth consideration here:
Micah Owings
27 years old on Opening Day 2010
2009: 19 GS, 80 ERA+, 1.588 WHIP, 1.06 K/BB, 5.67 FIP
Lifetime Majors: 64 GS, 90 ERA+, 1.408 WHIP, 1.68 K/BB, 5.06 FIP
Lifetime minors: 32 GS, 3.08 ERA, 2.62 K/BB,
Owings added 0.2 WAR with his bat last year, going .259/.281/.537 at the plate in 58 PAs. He might see more plate appearances in a full, healthy season as a starter than in relief, though his ability to pinch-hit into the game and avoid the double-switch has some appeal. Owings fared better as a reliever than he has as a starter in a small sample 17 IP last season, though he was still roughly middle of the road for NL 5th starters. His batted ball rates were almost identical to his quality rookie season, but he seemed to struggle with control, allowing too many base runners, while failing to miss bats (his K/BB was cut in half was compared to '07, while posting his worst K/9 in three major league seasons). I think he could bounce back to be an above average 5th starter, though with potential to be a better middle reliever over the course of his career.
Travis Wood
23 years old on Opening Day 2010
2009 (Carolina/Lousville): 27 GS, 1.77 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 2.55 K/BB
Lifetime minors: 103 GS, 3.38 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 2.17 K/BB
Doug's review of the 2009 Travis Wood
Wood has made steady forward progress through the minors, improving his control along the way, while ceding some of his power. He may have only pitched 42 innings above AA, but he's arguably the best starting pitching prospect in the Reds system who could be ready to face major league hitters this season. To boot, he's also just pulled down a MiLBY for best pitcher in the minors at the AA level last year, which MLB.com credited to Wood adding a cutter to his stable of pitches.
Matt Maloney
26 years old on Opening Day 2010
Lifetime majors (2009): 7 GS, 88 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB, 5.41 FIP
2009 minors (Carolina/Louisville): 23 GS, 3.00 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB
Lifetime minors: 111 GS, 3.29 ERA, 1.188 WHIP, 3.21 K/BB
In 40 big league innings last season, Maloney performed ably and by that measure alone deserves a fair chance to win a starting spot next season. He may not be a power pitcher, but his control over last season was improved, posting sub-2.00 BB rates at both AAA and the majors. James predicts his walk rates to regress to 2.45, with his K-rate improving closer to his career averages at 8.02. Maloney is a serious fly ball pitcher, but he can also induces a lot of grounders, which could dovetail nicely with the Reds' top-notch infield defense. If Maloney can retain his improved ability to spot his pitches while striking out major league hitters, his fly ball rates will become less a concern and Maloney could emerge as a very solid 4/5 starter. At 26, he's not been as celebrated as Owings over the course of his career, but both are at the stage in which they need to crack the MLB rotation or start pondering a bullpen job.
Sam LeCure
25 years old on Opening Day 2010
2009 (Louisville): 25 GS, 4.46 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 2.84 K/BB
Lifetime minors: 107 GS, 3.79 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 2.51 K/BB
LeCure may be buried behind Leake, Wood and Maloney in prospect rankings, but he's not roster filler. He offers the virtue of being right-handed where Wood and Maloney are lefties and is decidedly closer to major-league ready than Leake. LeCure struggled adjusting to AAA after an exceptional 2008 in AA. It's worth noting that, in comparing 2008 and 2009, LeCure's peripherals remained about the same, though his HR rate jumped over 1.0. On paper, LeCure is in the same ballpark as Maloney, the glaring difference being that Sam allows significantly more baserunners via the walk. He may not be a legitimate candidate to winning a starting job to start the season, but if he works on his control in Louisville, he phase in as a spot starter and work his way into the rotation in the event of injuries and (inevitable) underperformance.
External Possibilities:
Free agents and trade targets within the Reds' reach, given a quick power ranking treatment:
29 on Opening Day 2010
26 on Opening Day 2010
25 on Opening Day 2010
* no MLB experience
26 on Opening Day 2010
5. Wade LeBlanc
25 on Opening Day 2010
6. Mark Mulder (FA)
32 on Opening Day 2010
And for this poll, assume that the Reds already have Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey locked in. Even if one were to be traded or injured, your choice here would represent a fifth option - a pitcher who should be a member of the rotation this season regardless of contingencies.
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Comments
I think Fausto could be a good buy-low target
though I wonder what his rebound potential is given his injury history.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 4, 2010 3:27 PM EST reply actions
Also
If the Reds are going to stick with Janish at short, they might consider going with a groundball friendly pitcher in the fifth slot, at least as a tiebreaker. They could maximize their run prevention by having groundball guys in the 5th spot and long-relief/swingman. If I’m not mistaken, this favors Maloney.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 4, 2010 4:07 PM EST reply actions
Maloney
We already have him, he has shown everything he could be expected to show at AAA and had limited success last season in the majors. He is likely to be prone to the HR ball, but he will likely limit its effect on runs because he doesn’t walk anyone and we have a good defense behind him.
I voted for Banny
solely so Poz could write about the Reds. And I mean, its not like the Royals will ask for a good player in return. They’re the Royals.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
That's part of why he's on the list
Maybe he could analyze his hit(fx) data so everything sprays to Stubbs, BP and Janish. And maybe acquiring him would be backdoor way for sabermetrics to take root in the Reds organization, at least among the pitching staff.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 4, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Jez, Ownings is getting NO love.
I voted Maloney simply because we need a left handed pitcher in the rotation. That and he almost impressed me in a couple of his starts. I’m honestly a little shocked that Lehr didn’t make this list. I mean, Nobody was going to vote for him, but he did have a small fan base going. I suppose the only card carrying member was Chris Welch anyways.
Start SEEing motorcycles
Maloney
but I would be fine with Owings. Wood needs time in AAA, I’d leave him there all season if I could. I’d be good with Bannister, and call me crazy but I would sign mulder if it was for cheap and 1 yr.
Look at the paragraph above it, it only picks up the first one
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jan 4, 2010 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
No Justin Lehr?
I honestly think Lehr will beat out Maloney with lights out ST pitching. I am kinda cool on Maloney. I think he’s going to be hammered the 2nd and 3rd times around the league, but I think he has learned all he can at AAA and its time to either give him an extended chance or trade him who can be a 5th starter.
I voted for Mulder, but I would only bring him in if he takes a discount and signs for ~1 million. (That won’t happen)
If Bailey and Cueto bring it this year, like I know they can, then I honestly could give a damn who the 5th starter is until Volquez is back.(I am living in imaginary world were he comes back awesome and all of our other starters are lights out) I mean the bullpen has to get some work right?
How does Carmona make this list, he is Dontrelle Willis 2?
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 4, 2010 10:26 PM EST reply actions
I just don't see Lehr as any more than an emergency spot starter
He probably has as much right to be on this list as LeCure, but doesn’t have the upside. Neither of them are seriously in the discussion. Lehr is as old as Mulder (32), but his best pro seasons have happened in AAA at ages 25-31. I’m rooting for him to become another Steve Parris if he gets the chance to start with the Reds again, but I can’t see how he could be a legitimate candidate to become the regular 5th starter on Opening Day.
Carmona makes the list because his perceived value is pretty low and he’s relatively young. His hip injury may have permanently derailed his career, but he’s only 2 seasons removed from a 148 ERA+ season. That said, I would give the benefit of the doubt to any scouting that said he was through. His last two years have been accelerated decline.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 4, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
do you have an old broken down pitcher fetish?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Careful throwing stones in that glass house, Mr. Maloney and Cheese Sandwich
All UK fans are toothless racist hillbillies.
by jch24 on Jan 5, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ha!
that’s funny because it’s his real name!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 5, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
he is old and broken down though
he has yet to proof himself ineffective
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
No I like LHSP that throw 95
but I didn’t see any up there.
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 5, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
Wood or Maloney
I like the notion of having a lefty in the rotation. I think Owings did adequate work last year and Lehr wasn’t exactly awful. Cueto is a wild-card, IMHO. This is a year he needs to step up.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
boobs say I
There is no one on the list that excites me any more than Justin Lehr who doesn’t excite me at all. (He will likely be the #5 at the start of the season because he has the experience and teams don’t really use a #5 early in the year)
Owings is better out of the pen (He’d better worl on his OF skills and hitting)
Wood is completely untried (although if I were to vote I woulda voted for him)
Maloney will get killed
Fausto Carmona is a character from a Fellini movie
Brian Bannister – So what
Brandon McCarthy – AAAA
Brandon Hynick – AAA
Sam LeCure – Getting older and older
Mark Mulder – bullpen fodder at best
Wade LeBlanc – Hoo boy
Mark Muldar – Retread
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
by Madville on Jan 4, 2010 11:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for the Fellini
Isn’t he a paparrazo who smokes unfilitered cigarettes and rides a Vespa with two sidecars?
It’d be nice to have a pitcher named Marcello. And then you could endlessly play that clip of Anita Ekberg saying his name over and over.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 5, 2010 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
My 5th starter has a first name, it's M-A-T-T-Y
I think the lefty option makes him valuable, and he’s more than proven what he is. He’s a 5th starter type, like Owings. Wood needs a little more seasoning in Louisville before he takes Matt’s spot, and LeCure isn’t there yet (and won’t be, unless he has a nice year this year). The external options are nice, but unrealistic.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Its spelled Maddy
and he is truly an old lefthander…
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
Another M-A-T-T-Y
I think if Sam Lecure is on the depth chart, that we’d have to include Matt Klinker, have both in AAA, and Klinker be ahead of him at this point.
coaching
I am not sure if this is place to bring this up or if it’s been brought up elsewhere, but what’s the thinking on Price, the new pitching coach? Is this an upside event? If this has been covered, steer me there and I will get up to speed.
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
he was Webb's pitching coach
can’t be worse the Dick Pole right?
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 5, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
N.M. I found it
seems like another shot in the dark, (sigh).
Don't try to win every game, just the last one.
The upside is that most inside folks really respect him
And he was the one who coached Owings when he was…better.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
I wish
there was some money, any money, to sign Aroldis Chapman. His arm is one that is worth the time to develop at 21. Prolly never happen.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
Marlins will land him
NY is cold for someone who has never seen snow
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 5, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
you can buy a hell of a jacket with 10 million
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Jan 5, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow
I guess there was some money.
by Pops Daniels on Jan 11, 2010 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I voted Maloney
because well he is going to be a solid mid rotation pitcher. He can strike guys out and avoid walks despite his lack of velocity.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
I hope he can do it at the ML level.
He may never get the chance.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
Seriously, did you see the other choices?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jan 5, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
I did, and voted Carmona
I think he’s worth an incentive-laden deal.
If I’m forced to stay in house, then I give the ball to Owings or Wood before Maloney. Maloney’s a career minor leaguer. He’s Tom Shearn all over again.
by Highlifeman21 on Jan 5, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
BUT HIS NAME RHYMES WITH BALONEY!!! OR BOLOGNA!!! OR SOMETHING!!!
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
Carmona is under contract with the Indians
we have to trade for him if we want him. and the Indians are no position to trade pitching.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 5, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Does Carmona rhyme with bologna?
Before the curse of stastics fell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life, full of merriment and go and informed by fairly good judgement.
-Hilaire Belloc
I will never understand why so many people think Wood should be rushed through AAA
especially a pitcher of his skill set. he’s only pitched in 8 games at AAA. I know we’re all excited to have a LH starting pitching prospect and all, but can we lay off the gas pedal a little on this guy?
We’re talking about a 5th starter here, someone who’s keeping a spot warm until Volquez returns and, after that, possibly until Leake comes up, depending on how the rest of the staff holds up. The Reds don’t have the money to get a free agent of any import or trade bait it would be advisable to flip for anyone particularly good for this year.
So Maloney and Owings are the best MLB-ready starters on hand. Maloney is a well-known quantity and I think his virtues laid out here make him a pretty decent option.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 5, 2010 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
compare his numbers to bailey
in the minors maloney is better, he can strike out hitters and avoid walks. I’m ikmpressed, could be the next Tom Glavine, of course he could also be the next Jimmy Anderson. But he is worth giving a chance.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Maloney/Glavine comparison
drink up
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 6, 2010 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, no way in hell
I think we’re firmly at a “he is what he is” state with Maloney. He’s a back of the rotation lefty who doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Which is fine, because we’re talking about the back of the rotation.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jan 6, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
i feel the need to point out
how cool it is that we now view bailey as assured and deserving of a spot in the rotation
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
Especially since many here wanted to trade him for Jermaine Dye this time last year.
He went on to post a .793 OPS (weak for a corner OF), and is now a FA.
There was also a collective RR boner for: (2009 OPS)
Rocco Baldelli (.744 in only 62 G)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.661)
Gerald Laird (.626)
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
actually just with me
Glad noone listens to me. Do you ever get the feeling that this is just one continious RR conversation?
by Dave from Louisville on Jan 7, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
By the way Andoidis
What RR nickname do you prefer?
I, for instance had suggest Defectatron (so i could post a Megan Fox jpeg which was deemed overly large..although I thought it was just the perfect size)
Do you like Megan Fox (Si or No)
What are your favorite Burrito toppings?
Can you speak any English (you write so fluently) (si or No)
Are you really only 22? (Plesase scanin your birth certificate)
Are you going to the Red’s MLB camp for ST?
Have you ever killed anyone in Cuba??
you new Pal
Mads
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
Hi
El desertor zurdo or Chappy
Si
cheese and guacamole
Yes
Si
Si
Si, from 60 feet away
by Aroldis Chapman on Jan 11, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
so the distance between the mound and home plate is shorter in cuba?
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
by Madville on Jan 11, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Crolfer! (spoken in his mother's most alarmed voice)
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
She generally calls me
Andrew, scumbag, dirtwad, idiot, or some combination thereof.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Ditwad?
Discuss ‘ditwad’ and the effects it has had on your arrested development. compare and contrast to Mark David Chapman’s mother’s use of "Dickwad’ when referring to her son.
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
my mother hugs me
Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Leake, and Volquez; the future is so bright I have to wear sunglasses.
by justin007000 on Jan 12, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I don't want to hear about 'intimate' details...
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
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