Miguel Tejada signs with Orioles

by JinAZ on Jan 24, 2010 10:17 AM EST in Off-season

$6M/1yr. Tejada was probably the best available free agent SS left on the market.

CHONE projects Tejada as a average hitter (-1 R150) and a below-average fielder (-12 runs per season). Houston fans had him dead-on average last season in the field. Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections put him at -4 runs per season in the field. So overall, somewhere around a -5 run fielder at shortstop? CHONE projects him at 81% playing time.

Given this, and the fact that he plays a premium position, I think projecting him as a 2 WAR player next season seems reasonable. If the Orioles move him to 3B, he likely would be a roughly average fielder (good arm, less good range per fan scouting), though he'd lose some of his position adjustment. Call it an even swap.

If 1 WAR = $3.5M on this market (which seems about right), then he's worth about $7 M. We're well within the margin of error here, so this is a fair deal. Tejada would have been a nice upgrade to the Reds lineup this season, but I guess it speaks to how tight the purse is for the 2010 season (at least).

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Maybe an upgrade

Seems like 56 percent of America thought the Reds to be daft by signing the old man Rolen to play third base.

Just sayin’.

Old Baldy needs the help.

Thankfully, for idiots like you, our forefathers gave us the second commandment – the right say whatever you want no matter if you’re wrong. — Unknown, for the most part

by johnu1 on Jan 24, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions

I don't think the issue is Rolen, per se

…but rather what the Reds gave up to get Rolen. I thought the extension was a nice deal for the Reds, despite Rolen’s age.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jan 24, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Not crazy about Tejada

He’s an overall upgrade over Janish, but I’d rather have Janish’s glove to help Cueto’s and Bailey’s development. My answer might be different if I thought we had a serious shot at contending this year.

I think projecting him as a -5 fielder at SS is fairly generous at this point in his career. He’s going to be 36 and is slow and stocky for a middle infielder. I understand that we shouldn’t put too much weight on his awful ‘09 numbers (TZ and RZR), but I have to think that those are more telling than his decent ’08 numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned in a -5 year in the field, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it was -10 or -15.

Also, I realize that lots of smart people like considering the fans’ scouting reports, but I’m not convinced that they’re all that helpful because they’re influenced by defensive reputation. I also suspect fans’ reports are primarily based on TV viewing, which doesn’t give you the complete picture on defense.

by ken on Jan 24, 2010 12:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I agree, well said.

by Brian B on Jan 24, 2010 12:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I agree, well said.

"Just seeing him in uniform makes me throw up." Jack Clark on Mark McGwire's new coaching job

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 24, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

I concur, nicely stated

It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. -Aristotle

by nycredsfan on Jan 24, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

if you guys like him so much why dont you green him

Alway the optimist...I like your think kid...

by boobs on Jan 24, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Fans data are extremely stable

Which is what I like about them. You get 20 some-odd fans to rate a player, and they will rate a player almost identically as the next 20 fans. They also correlate as well to objective stats as the objective stats do to each other. That said, when you have a long record of performance, I have no problem with down-weighting the Fans. This is especially true with older players—fans seem to identify their declines a few years too late. So sure, that sort of thing could be happening with Tejada.

If you instead use the average of the TZ and UZR projections, Tejada rates as a -8 fielder at SS. 3 run difference.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jan 24, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

"I agree," Well said.

Who’s this Well character?

by fourrunhomer on Jan 24, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds like a $6MM Todd Frazier

Before the curse of stastics fell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life, full of merriment and go and informed by fairly good judgement.

-Hilaire Belloc

by poojols on Jan 24, 2010 8:43 PM EST reply actions

I'm not sure that Frazier can field as well as Tejada.

But I dunno, maybe I’m wrong—not much useful data on Frazier at SS yet. Hopefully Frazier will hit at least as well.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jan 24, 2010 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

I should say

Except that Frazier hasn’t been given a look at SS since A-ball. Granted, he’s been competing with Valaika. But that basically means that the Reds see Frazier as an inferior fielder to Valaika—and they’re not sure that Valaika will stick at SS defensively either!
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jan 24, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

Frazier had better range

   Check the Range Factor per Game (RF/G) at shortstop for Janish, Cozart, Frazier, Sutton, Valaika and Rosales. Check their career minor league RF/G at that position. Frazier has the highest rating of all of them.
   So I don’t understand why they took Frazier off shortstop and are just now bringing him back in the mix at that position.
   My guess is, it’s because the Reds have been desperate for a shortstop and Valaika, Rosales and Janish were ahead of Frazier in their level of experience. So these guys were given more time at shortstop in the minors, while Frazier was gaining exposure at other positions.
  Frazier now has the chance to dominate with his bat. The Reds are still desperate for a shortstop who can do it all, and Frazier needs to show that he can rise to the occasion. Range is not an issue with him. The thing to watch will be his fielding percentage. Janish has the clear edge there. But it will be a competition of interest.

by dmcgee77 on Jan 25, 2010 7:52 AM EST reply actions

Range factor

Range factor is influenced more by number of balls hit toward a fielder per game than any other factor (including a fielder’s actual range), and thus it unfortunately provides very little useful signal. It’s decent in theory, but falls apart in practice. It already incorporates information about errors in a way (and thus fielding percentage adds little new information), it’s just that the estimate of a player’s chances (games played) are very unreliable. This piece of mine links to MGL’s work on this issue:
http://www.basement-dwellers.com/2007/10/player-value-part-3a-fielding.html

However, FWIW, Brian Cartwright reported to me that he projected Frazier to be quite a decent shortstop based on his Oliver projection system. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2010_pre_season/#179
I think he uses a fielding system similar to total zone, though I’m not sure. The thing is, Frazier hasn’t played SS since A-ball, which means that Cartwright has to go through a bunch of MLE steps to convert all the way up to MLB-quality fielding. As I told him, I don’t think it’s likely to be particularly reliable, though obviously I hope I’m wrong.

My take is this: if the Reds thought he had a legitimate chance to field in at least an acceptable level (say -10 runs/season?), they would never have moved him away from shortstop. You don’t move late-1st round picks from shortstop unless you think they can’t play there. I think the fact that they’re (supposedly) considering him for the SS job this spring is a sign of desperation as much as anything else. Hope I’m wrong and he becomes another Rich Aurilia (or better!).
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jan 25, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions