Comparing team offenses: Reds vs. Astros
by JinAZ on Sep 28, 2009 2:15 PM EDT
in News
60 comments
Fay:
...the Reds are 15th in the NL in batting average at .247. That’s the same average as last year.
"I look at runs more than average," Baker said. "The Astros are hitting higher than us. But we’ve outscored them."
The Reds are 11th in runs. They were 12th last year.
Good on Dusty to evaluate his offense by runs, not batting average. AVG is correlated to runs scoring, but less so than just about every other offensive rate stat you can find. The Reds currently rank 13th in the league in runs scored (645 RS), which is indeed ahead of the 15th-ranked Astros (621 RS), as well as the Giants, Padres, and Pirates).
Nevertheless, raw runs scored aren't the best measure of a team's offense. There are a number of reasons, but here are a few, along with examples of how addressing those problems provides some alternative looks at the Reds offense.
1. Park effects.
GABP promotes the long ball, and as a result is a moderate hitters' park. Patriot's 5-year regressed park factors pegs the GABP at 1.02, which means that runs are inflated by ~2% among players calling Cincinnati home. The Astros, on the other hand, have a home park factor 0.99, which means that their offensive numbers are deflated by ~1% compared to a neutral park. If we adjust the runs scored data by those park factors (divide runs by the park factors), the Reds' lead over the Astros shrinks to just 5 runs: 632 vs. 627 runs.
Because of their regression to the mean, Patriot's park factors are among the most conservative such factors that you'll find...
2. Number of games played.
This is pretty simple. The Reds have played 1 more game than the Astros. Both teams score just over 4 runs per game. So, given this, you'd expect the Reds to have ~4 more runs than the Astros. This, plus the park effects above, would rank the Reds and Astros offenses as almost exactly equal.
3. Timing
There's no question that, when it comes to scoring runs, timing matters. A single with the bases loaded is worth a heck of a lot more to a team's run scored tally than a single with no one on base. The problem is that whether hits with runners on is a repeatable skill--studies have shown that it is (clutch does exist!), it's just that the effect size is very small: the best clutch players will have a 5-point advantage in wOBA or OBP over the average player.
As a result, in many cases we like to look at context-neutral offensive stats. There are a number to choose from, but my personal favorite is the one I calculate for Beyond the Boxscore: I estimate runs scored based on linear weights of offensive events (wRC at fangraphs) and baserunning stats from Baseball Prospectus (EqBRR). Based on this measure, after park corrections, through Sunday's games, the Reds trail the Astros 634 runs to 606 runs. Why? Despite their park disadvantage, the Astros rank ahead of the Reds in AVG, OBP, and SLG, as well as baserunning (0 RAA for Astros vs. 9 runs below average for the Reds). The Reds have just been a bit "lucky" in terms of how their offensive events have translated into runs, whereas the Astros have been a tad "unlucky."
The games disparity mentioned above still applies, so you can convert those totals to a rate stat. I prefer wOBA, which has the Reds trailing the Astros 0.319 vs. 0.309 (wOBA uses the same scale as OBP, but properly weights all offensive events--in this case, I'm even including EqBRR baserunning). The Reds rank ahead of only San Francisco by wOBA.
Another look at this is OPS+ at Baseball Reference. It has the Reds 15th in the league with an OPS+ of 83, while the Astros are 11th with an OPS+ of 91. Same story. The Reds offense this year has been lousy. We all know that, of course. But if you just look at actual run scored totals, you won't quite grasp how much of a problem it has been.
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Good stuff
The question is, how much of the last month is for real. Since August 23rd, the Reds have batted .273/.347/.435, averaging 5 R/G as a team, but of the players getting over 100 PA, only BP and Votto have been outstanding, and Darnell McDonald is the only other player with significant playing time playing well over his head (though Bruce, Sutton, and Francisco are at levels they won’t likely maintain). I’m not sure if little bursts of offense for 30 games a couple of times during the season is enough tough. Right now, it looks like the offense only goes good when Joey and BP are hitting. They definitely need another bat or two. Maybe Bruce can be one, but can Rolen? Here are the numbers since 8/23:
Player PA AVG OBP SLG
Drew Stubbs 155 .271 .323 .451
Brandon Phillips 148 .336 .372 .464
Joey Votto 147 .342 .463 .617
Paul Janish 141 .234 .321 .379
Scott Rolen 124 .283 .363 .358
Jonny Gomes 103 .245 .301 .489
Wladimir Balentien 67 .276 .373 .466
Corky Miller 64 .192 .306 .269
Darnell McDonald 62 .317 .339 .500
Laynce Nix 39 .139 .179 .472
Jay Bruce 33 .357 .455 .643
Craig Tatum 31 .250 .300 .357
Ryan Hanigan 29 .174 .345 .348
Adam Rosales 28 .227 .393 .273
Drew Sutton 27 .333 .440 .524
Kevin Barker 24 .333 .375 .476
Juan Francisco 20 .444 .500 .611
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 28, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
'They definitely need another bat or two'
Addition by subtraction….I volunteer to cut off Willy Taveras’ thumbs, making him the highest paid pinch-runner in history.
by jacob brumfield on Sep 28, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah lately ive been letting myself think that maybe this level of offense is sustainable
like you said, only a few players are significantly over their heads, and they arent getting that many PAs lately. i think dropping Gonzo and T-Virus was more significant than i initially thought it would be. that is huge.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 28, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers I'll take
Stubbs at 271/323/451 with stellar defense
Janish at 234/321 with stellar defense and potential to hit 240/330 next year (omg)
by jsl413 on Sep 28, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you're ok with getting a better LFer
and, I’m assuming, being OK with Rolen/Hanigan at 3b/C?
I think the Reds still need a decent 3b in a pinch if/when Rolen gets hurt…maybe it’ll be Francisco, Frazier, or Sutton.
I’m not convinced that they’re a quickfix away. Is the pitching going to be ok? Will Rhodes, Herrera, Masset, et. al. be just as good next year? The Reds can still afford to improve, they probably need to get ~6-8 more wins next year to be in the playoff hunt.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Sep 28, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanigan provides excellent defense at catcher and is not a liability.
Rolen is the same at 3B.
Bruce needs to come back in a big way next year and hit at least a .250/.350/.480 line, and they need a legitimate LF (unless, somehow, Gomes/Balentien can combine for a good platoon, which is doubtful) to fill the rest of the lineup. If Bruce starts to pick up his game and they get a legitimate, good outfield bat, then the middle of the lineup is Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Bruce, New Bat – 5 players that can do some serious damage. Surround them with Stubbs, Janish, Hanigan, provided they continue to get on base at a 33-35% rate, and keep the bullpen in tact, combined with a miracle by which our coaches help our young players improve as they near their primes, and perhaps good things happen?
by jsl413 on Sep 28, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm most worried about Rhodes
he is one old motherfucker.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 28, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My projectionless take on over/under for those numbers next year
Stubbs: under, at least on power
Phillips: under
Votto: under
Janish: even
Rolen: over
Gomes: even
Balentien: under
Miller: even
McDonald: under
Nix: over
Bruce: under, but with more PA’s
Tatum: even
Hanigan: even
Rosales: even, maybe (less OBP, more SLG)
Sutton: under
Barker: under
Francisco: under
So, completely subjectively, I count 2 players likely to improve (Rolen & Nix), 6 to break even (none of which are very good…save for Gomes, who likely won’t be here), and the rest of perform under those levels.
I don’t think it’s for real. :( Even just looking at season-level performances, I think Bruce (and MAYBE Stubbs, though I’m not sure) is the only person I’d expect to hit better next year vs. this year.
-j
by JinAZ on Sep 28, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By no means do I think this is real in the sense that this is the level these players will put up over an entire season
my point was, can this team do this 2 or 3 times for a 30 game stretch next season and then be within spitting distance of average the rest of the time? That is, any chance this roster scores 750 runs next year?
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 28, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but that's where my last comment was going...
I just don’t see anyone who is likely to improve over the course of a full season except Bruce. Of course, he has the talent to become the awesomeness. If he turns into a 3-4 WAR player and there are no other serious regressions, then sure, they can score 750 runs (on pace for 728 right now). I think that’s where we’re at unless there’s a big acquisition, though.
… Or maybe if someone like Frazier steps up in a big way next year…
-j
by JinAZ on Sep 28, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we're in agreement
they need at least 2 more bats. Hopefully Bruce is one of them.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 28, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
where is the second going to play?
left field, I imagine? And if so, what do you do with Nix/Dickerson/Gomes/Francisco/et.al?
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Sep 28, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LF or SS would be the two prime spots
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 28, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope they drop nix
and have an outfield that comprises Bruce/Stubbs/Dickerson/Gomes/Balentin and maybe consider moving Votto to left in 2011 to make room for Alsono.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 28, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's wrong with Nix off the bench?
He can hit for power, he hits LH and he plays all 3 OF positions?
Here is the current crop:
Wladimir Balentien – Ok corner guy but how useful is he off the bench…
Jay Bruce – RF starter – will a great season in 2010
Chris Dickerson – Odd man out, he shouldn’t be rotting on the bench
Jonny Gomes – Should be starting LF in 2010, maybe
Darnell McDonald – AAA
Laynce Nix – Bench guy
Drew Stubbs – Will get the start in CF but on a very very short leash
Willy Taveras – C-Dick’s nemesis – he’ll be on the bench waiting for Stubbs to fail…I’d almost bet the ranch on it.
Why bring up any young guys to rot away a la Jannish?
Nix is a good fit for 2010.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think balentien is out of options which is why he was exposed to waivers in the first place
did nix bang your daughter?
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 28, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha Ha - not funny.
I just like the guy off the bench, that’s all
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fine, i'll stick to poitical facebook notes about gay rights.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 28, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I commented on your praiseworthy epistle
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know, i replied
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 28, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm probably going to reiterate this later when folks are awake
but I want the Reds to keep CDick if only because that will keep Taveras away from the playing field. If Stubbs swoons (and not like poodle swoons, either) that the Reds need a competent CFer. That’s not Taveras, that’s not Nix. That’s Dickerson.
I want the 5 OFs next year to be Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce, Dickerson, Balentien. I’m very ok with a trade of Gomes and Balentien for a real LFer and a Taveras sighting. It seems to be the best mix of power, obp, and realism.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Sep 28, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that dusty believes that C-dick is as good as Wily
And that was a major problem this season.
Unless Taveris is magically transported to another dimension or big Bob wakes up Walt from his snooze..Chris Dickerson is the odd man out.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 29, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think dusty is happy with willy
and he said c-dick still has some unrecognized upside.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 29, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm willing
to take my chances with Heisey if Stubbs can’t go for some reason.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Sep 29, 2009 6:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you may be ready and willing
but it is doubtful that Dusty is
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 29, 2009 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW, Joey Votto was named NL Player of the Week this week
He batted .560/.593/1.080 this week with 10 doubles.
Swoon.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 28, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Swoon indeed, I have to fan myself looking at those numbers
It’s been good to watch the Reds this past week
by Red_Poodle on Sep 28, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow do the Giants have amazing pitching
I kinda forgot about that…it’s tough to have 83 wins with that hitting. Oh, and Madison Bumgardener got called up. At age 19. And already has 9K::2BB in 8 innings.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Sep 28, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Giants overrated?
Giants are having a great year, but I have them about 45 runs “lucky” on offense and 45 runs “lucky” on defense (pitching + fielding). I certainly acknowledge that there could be something about that team where I’m somehow missing…but I can’t find it.
Offense has the highest “clutchiness” score in baseball, 3.3 wins in WPA above what the component hitting stats would predict. Baserunning helps (+11 runs), but doesn’t close the gap.
And pitching…3.62 ERA, but 3.95 FIP and 4.13 tERA. Fielding helps a lot (they are a great fielding team, +41 runs), but doesn’t completely close that gap.
-j
by JinAZ on Sep 28, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seattle has been doing the whole "pitching and D" thing too
and have been incredibly lucky judging by their Pythag.
I’m not really sure what the reasoning is, but I kind of like the return of defensive baseball. We’re astroturf and cocaine away from reliving the 1980 glory days.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Sep 28, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seattle's almost pure fielding
+67 runs fielding, but below-average pitching and lousy offense.
Sort of like the Reds, actually. :)
Fielding was often cited prior to this season as an undervalued trait in the free agent market. I think the market corrected that last winter, though.
-j
by JinAZ on Sep 28, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw this
More on market correction here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/defense-hits-the-market/
It will be something to watch this offseason. -j
by JinAZ on Sep 28, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hi folks.
I’m finally back.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Sep 28, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see I've missed winning, then losing, then more winning.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Sep 28, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But did you miss Me?
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Mads, I missed you most of all.
/Dorthy’d
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Sep 28, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep...I'm just your Joh McCain
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That photo has always creeped me out.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Sep 28, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Shit Farns...
Makes me skin crawl…repulsive…abhorrent…vile…blatantly homosexual….religiously fetid,just plain scary.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's because McCain looks like dead body without joints.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Sep 29, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hal wisely argued today that we shouldn't get our hopes up too much
becase some of our wins this month came against weaker teams.
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/index.html
I don’t know if that’s fair, however. The Pirates have managed to contain the Dodgers far better than they handled the Reds. Maybe the Dodgers aren’t trying as hard since they’ve already clinched and are just getting ready for the postseason. I think the Reds can still be happy about the number of wins they’ve put up regardless of the competition in any case. Now we have a real test with the Cards coming up.
by Red_Poodle on Sep 28, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hal is the voice of reason
Fortunately i am not listening lalalaal al ala lala ala (hands covering ears)
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 28, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
true, but the scary thing is
the way the guys were playing in mid August, the Pirates could beat us. The play has definitely improved dramatically, whether or not it’s truly competitive is another story
by Red_Poodle on Sep 29, 2009 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good summary
I like many of the comments here too. I think the article which said the Reds were furthest from competing has some truth in it. It’s an exaggeration, other clubs are in worse shape, but I just don’t see it.
Next year they almost certainly have a below average offense, and likely below average pitching overall. Definitely below average starting pitching. I wish this team would for once have the guts to say “this is a rebuilding year” instead of slamming their heads against the wall, hoping to compete, only to fizzle in the midsummer. With Volquez out, Stubbs uncertain, Bruce uncertain, Hanigan uncertain, Baily uncertain it’s really the perfect opportunity for a rebuilding year in 2010. It would allow our managers to have a different philosophy. Instead of playing some veteran like Taveras or Hernandez for half the year or more, we could play the younger talent and see what they’re capable of at the major league level.
There’s no way this team wins the Central next year imo. Not without some significant killer trade or free agent pickup. I don’t even see how this team eclipses the Cubs next year. The organization should just suck it up and plan to compete in 2011, that’s when many of these talented youngsters are going to excel anyways.
by cokane on Sep 29, 2009 1:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i wouldn't say there is no way this team wins the NL central, i'd just say it is unlikely
the stars need to align just right with the following things:
Harang pitches 200+ innings, with an ERA in the high 3s
Arroyo Pitches 200+ innings with an ERA in the low 4s
Cueto Pitches 200+ innings with an ERA in the 3s
Bailey pitches 170+ innings with an ERA in the 4s
Maloney or some other 5th starter can keep things competitive
There are no significant injuries to 4 out of those 5 pitchers, because honestly I don’t think the Reds have a lot of depth to fill holes in the rotatation. Like I think they really only have Owings, maybe Travis Wood, maybe Sean Lecure, and that is about all I can think of…
Bruce realizes his potential and hits .300/.350/.580
Votto stays at his level of production
Stubbs is for real, and isn’t a September farce
Masset and DRH aren’t one year wonders*
Rhodes can maintain his form again*
or some other relievers step it up.
Rolen plays 140 games, with a .270/.360/.400 line
They find something to fill left field, whether it be a platoon of Dickerson or Gomes, or something.
Those are a lot of question marks, and undoubtedly some where along the line something in their will falter, or a new and unexpected problem develops.
I wouldn’t even allow Volquez to start a game next year. If he is rehabbed and ready to see big league action by August I’d stick him in the bullpen and only allow him to pitch twice a week, and only want him to throw fastballs and change ups. I highly doubt he would be an effective starting pitcher if he doesn’t see big league action until August, since there is a bit of a Major League recovery time too. Also it will add to his minor league rehab time if he has to build up to a point where he can throw 100 pitches a game. That being said I want him in the rotation again in 2011.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 29, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There will be a lot of pressure to start Voquez
come September when the pennant race is down to the wire.
by Red Menace on Sep 29, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but he may not even be effective in that role
if the reds simply put him in the bullpen, he may be more effective next year as a 1 or even 2 inning guy, twice a week. Usually a starting pitcher struggles the first month or two he is back after TJS.
The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.
by justin007000 on Sep 29, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cool, great reply
There’s more question marks than the ones you have listed. Can Hanigan start 100+ games? Can he hit decently?
What about Janish? Can he also play 100+ games and keep his average north of .200?
But again this seems like a retread of all the years past. If everything goes right… if everyone stays healthy and everyone lives up to our optimistic projections… then maybe we can… compete?
It just doesn’t happen. Almost every MLB team, even the contenders, have key injuries and disappointing years for key players. Look at Carpenter for St Louis for example, and then Ankiel. You’re just going to have to accept that these things happen every year. And expecting ALL these young players to be able to be league average or better next year is simply absurd.
-Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes (or whoever LF)
-Janish, Hanigan
-Bailey, 5th starter
5 of your starting 8 are question marks
2 of your starting 5 are question marks
by cokane on Sep 29, 2009 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot SS
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 29, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big Red Machine Version II
Back in the early 70s, we had Bench, Concepcion, Geronimo up the middle, Rose, Morgan, Perez in the infield, Foster and Griffey in the outfield. Reds never had any great starting pitcher but there were Nolan, Merritt, Gullett, McGlocklin, Norman, etc. Players came together and jelled at about the same time. Morgan was obtained thru trade with Houston, the rest I believe were all draft picks coming up the system. When you look at the core group of the youngsters that we have now, this is almost the same situtaion as we had before and may be we are just a year or two away. What we are missing here is the wisdom, knowledge and skills of Sparky Anderson. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker is not even close. Big Red Machine Version II can surprise all of us.
by Richard L on Sep 29, 2009 7:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I kinda get your point
but I think you’ll agree that it’s not fair to compare any team to the BRM, especially a team that hasn’t accomplished anything.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 29, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If one compares the starting 9 of the BRM 75/76 to next year's Red's it ain't even close nor will it be
I know you are pointing out that the BRM had some guys coming up through the system around 1973-4-5, but the team was fairly old and the fianl pice of the puzzle, George Foster came from the SF Giants.
Rose – Stubbs
Griffey – Jannish
Morgan – Votto
Foster – BP
Perez – Bruce
Bench – Rolen
Conception – Gomes
Geronimo – Hanigan
P – P
Votto and Bruce could develop into great players…and should…and barring injury will.
But they are the only ones in this group.This team is still a ways away from from being contenders. Although I am optomistic about their chancesof catching fire and making a run in 2010.
And yes the difference between a visionary like Sparky and an old school ‘by the booker’ like Dusty is huge.
Jay Bruce will become a major league baseball STAR, starting in April, 2010.....
by Madville on Sep 29, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guys
You’re missing the forest for the trees here. The real picture is that Dusty seems OK that the Reds aren’t the worst offense in the league; he’s bragging about being better than the 13th (out of 16) ranked offense.
Argue all you want about individual pieces; this team needs to score a bunch of runs (1/3 r/g) just to be league-average, not even adjusting for park, but the manager seems happy.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
by sidnancy on Sep 29, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I ignore Dusty at this point
It is clear that he and I are watching a different game.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Sep 29, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dusty-proofing seems like the only solution here
It’s no coincidence this team’s play improved when he was prevented from playing Taveras and A-Gon. He’s not going to stop rewarding the wrong things, so just give him a team full of Chris Dickersons.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Sep 29, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously firing him
or telling him to stupid doing stupid things is out of the question.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Sep 29, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
stop doing stupid things
oh, that’s ironic… Damn it all just stop wasting money and play the good players.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Sep 29, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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