Should the Reds Make Janish the Starting SS in 2010?

by nycredsfan on Sep 16, 2009 2:00 PM EDT

So Paul Janish had a great night at the dish yesterday, going 3-4 with 3 doubles and the game winning RBI. One of the few remaining Reds discussions around BlogLand is whether or not Janish should be made the starting SS for next season. (Hal thinks so) Most of the arguments I've heard for either side are centered around one of the following issues:

1) He's never hit in his career, probably won't now, and we need a good offensive SS to compete in 2010

2) We're not going to compete anyway, so we might as well let him do it for cheap.

3) Trade him for Hanley Ramirez

I think this team could possibly compete next year, but in order to do so Walt needs to be as efficient as possible with his resources in the offseason. I believe that part of that efficiency would be making Janish the starting SS.

Reasoning after the jump.

The big joke is that Janish barely got used during the first three months of the season because Dusty was saving him as the emergency catcher/relief pitcher/bat boy/Gapper. Through the Reds' first 110 games Soft-J only got 99 plate appearances, most in a PH/LIDR role. He didn't show much in those 99 PAs, putting up a line of .216/.296/.261.

Since the Great Fleecing of 2009, pt. 2 (Gonzo being traded to Boston.....Rolen to the Reds was pt. 1), Janish has put up a line of .227/.315/.373 in 126 PAs. That's by no means world-beating, but clearly playing every day has helped him. More impressively, during that stretch his walk rate is 9.5% and his K rate only 12.7%. That's the lowest K rate amongst all of the starters during that time. We joke that Dusty doesn't understand that strikeouts with RISP aren't the enemy, but one of the prime qualities a #2 hitter needs to have is the ability to make contact, and Janish has that ability. The walk rate is very respectable as well, and both rates are probably sustainable given his career minor league 10.4% BB rate and 16.6% K rate.

Further, the argument could be made that Janish has been very unlucky this year. His BABIP is only .263 despite a line drive rate of almost 21% (in comparison, the poster boy for bad luck, Jay Bruce, only has a LD rate of 12.5%). He will never hit for much power, but with a bit more luck a line of .255/.340/.375 is not unreasonable. Plus, Paul is only 26 and is just now entering his prime, so a slight increase above those numbers is possible. (Dare I say .265/.350/.380 is possible? That would make Janish a (gasp!) league average SS offensively)

Next, let's look at his defense. Everyone says it's good, but in only 65 games at SS Janish has been worth a whopping 10 runs above replacement. That is a great number for any position for a whole season, but for a SS to give you that much defensive value in less than half a season is astounding. The only two SS who have been worth more defensively this season are Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan, and they have played 40 and 28 more games, respectively. There are definitely sample size issues at work there, but there's no reason to assume that over a full season his defensive value would go down significantly. His defense has been so good that even with his weak bat so far, he's been worth 1.2 WAR. (a $5.3 million value)

That brings us to the money issue. Trading for a J.J. Hardy or Yunel Escobar would be great, but Hardy is probably going to make between 3-4 million next season, and Escobar could make even more in his first year of arbitration. Janish will still be paid league minimum. I understand it's not our money, but what if trading for Escobar meant we couldn't re-sign Jonny Gomes? There is also the fact that Escobar probably isn't available, and since the Brewers probably wouldn't want to trade within the division we'd have to give up a king's ransom for either guy.

Whether or not you think the Reds can be competitive in 2010, it increasingly seems like letting Paul Janish put up an OPS between .680-.740 while playing gold glove defense is probably the best option the Reds have. But what would you do? Trade for a more established shortstop? Promote from within? or let Janish play?

Poll

What should the Reds do about shortstop for 2010?

Make Janish the starter

168 votes

Trade for an established SS

81 votes

Promote Frazier and move Phillips to SS

136 votes

Re-sign Alex Gonzalez

11 votes

Boobs

72 votes

468 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 36 comments | 4 recs |

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Comments

I could not resist picking the sarcastic option.

At least, I really hope it was sarcastic.

He fixes the cable?

by Colin Auscapee on Sep 16, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

Excellent stuff

I’d still like to see Hardy in a Reds uniform, but now I don’t feel nearly as trepidatious about Janish.

by Brendanukkah on Sep 16, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I did not know you could adjectivize that word.

Plus also, it sounds cool that way.

Rec’d for vocabulary.

by bbjones on Sep 16, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

nice job

But yeah, economically, Janish might be the best option right now…

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Sep 16, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

I think the FA list at 2B

looks more appealing than at SS. Honestly, the Reds should have moved Phillips to SS now, to see if it is even a possibility in 2010.

What about Felipe Lopez at 2B on a 1-Year Deal (Maybe a 2nd year Club Option), and move Phillips to SS? I’d take .306/.371/.426 out of my leadoff guy.

Lopez 2B
Stubbs CF
Phillips SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF
Hanigan C
Pitcher

However, it is pretty clear the Reds don’t seem to keen on moving Phillips. Maybe it’s best to spend what little money we have on the best hitter we can get on the market(Most likely a OF or 2B), and then figure out the defense later.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Sep 16, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

I have little interest in Felipe Lopez

He seems like a prime example of peak season performance plus a little luck (.357 BABIP). Being that he’s a Boras client, he’s either going to get 3+ years or a larger check for a shorter contract, and I wouldn’t want to do that for a player who is likely having an outlier season. I expect that he’ll be an average to slightly below average hitter next year, and I don’t think the Reds need to spend money to get that.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 16, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Janish in '10

First we really need to get used to the fact that they’re never going to move Phillips to SS. We can argue it all we want, but it just isn’t going to happen. The Reds are against it. Period. Next question.

It would be nice if the Reds went out and got themselves a top SS. But there just ain’t any out there. May as well stick with the cheap option and concentrate on the rest of the team. Plus, I don’t trust Jocketty to go out there an spend $5 million on a “veteran” SS. We’ll end up with Alex Gonzalez again or Juan Castro. You know we will.

It’s a no-win situation as long as Dusty I managing. Janish will hit second because of his position on defense, which means a high out percentage at the top of the order again.

by Brian B on Sep 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I voted for the Phillips at SS option

The question is: “What should the Reds do about shortstop in 2010?” IMO, that’s what they should do.

I was hoping they would sign Furcal last year. His OPS is .670 in 2009, I would make a terrible GM. At least I wasn’t one of the guys arguing to trade Bruce, Cueto, etc. for Bedard.

by Snake the Jake on Sep 16, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I've been a proponent of Felipe Lopez in the past

assuming he could be had for 1-2 years at sub-Scutaro pricing. This is probably unreasonable, but I think he would be a nice consolation prize to JJ Hardy. That said, Todd Frazier might wind up being just as good an option in year two of FeLo’s hypothetical contract.

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Sep 16, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

great stuff 'credsfan

im with Brendan, this makes me feel a bit better about having Janish at SS next season. i think it will be really interesting to see if the Reds make any moves at all in free agency, as one could reasonably expect them to do absolutely nothing to change the team. it’ll be an interesting offseason.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 16, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

It's obvious that Janish should start.

His offense isn’t horrible, but his defense has been fantastic. Any other options I see would give less defense (almost certainly more than offsetting any offensive gains) and cost more.

Of course, it’s also obviously that he shouldn’t be batting second. That said, replacing him with pretty much anyone else would be worse than starting him and batting him second, so I still say he should be kept.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Sep 16, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

Has anybody else been wondering WTF is going on with Ryan Hanigan?

Is he still injured or something? He’s only started in three of seven games since his return, and it’s not like his replacement is playing at all well. In fact, we could have used him last night when everyone was running on Corky Miller.

Maybe the problem is that he’s drawn too many walks since returning: he has three walks but only two hits in 12 PAs.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Sep 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

Dusty is an idiot

and would tell you that Hanigan is clogging up the bases. At least that’s the way I see it.

Oh, and I voted for Boobs.

by Dawg Pound on Sep 16, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I sincerely hope he's just being cautious with him

and saving him for next year. It would be pretty tragic if Hanigan suffered a major injury in the last 20 games of this lost season. Under that logic, you play only scrubs the rest of the way, but maybe the rigors of catcher justify it.

Anything other than Hanigan as presumptive starting catcher for next year is unacceptable. There’s no one else conceivable.

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Sep 16, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

It's possible they are auditioning catchers for the backup job for next year

Since it’s becoming clear Hernandez isn’t going to be fully healthy

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Sep 16, 2009 4:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

God, I forgot that guy was even on the team.

People always asking, 'Uncle Jemima, why you sell booze?' I say 'sell whatchu know' and I knows about booze.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Sep 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

this seems depressingly plausible

it wouldnt surprise me at all if we have Corky Miller as our backup catcher next year.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 16, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Hate to say it,

But it would probably beat Raymoan at $3 mil.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Sep 16, 2009 4:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm on the fence with Jannish..I wish he were hitting better now during this audition

BUT I ALWAYS:

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Sep 16, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions

I say keep 'im

He’s excellent defensively, and shouldn’t embarass himself defensively.

And it got me looking. If you believe UZR, and ignore sample size, the Reds could put as many as 6 GG quality defenders on the field next year: Stubbs, Bruce, Rolen, Janish, BP, and (by observation only; UZR doesn’t do catchers) Hanigan. Surprisingly, UZR thinks Votto has been a below-average 1B this year. Given that, I’d be inclined to get the best hitting LF I could find, maybe pick up a pitcher and see what the team can do next year. Oh, and fire Dusty so Taveras, Hernandez, and McDonald don’t see the light of day.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Sep 16, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions

Crap

…shouldn’t embarass himself offensively.

Why isn’t there an edit button?

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Sep 16, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

it keeps me looking hilarious

The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.

by justin007000 on Sep 16, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Strongly disagree

by Brendanukkah on Sep 16, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

this seems very close to the "get the best defensive team you can find"

“and figure it out from there” school of thought. The Mariners are doing it, and are three games above 500, which is kind of cool.

This would also mean that your defensive “holes” are C, 1B, and LF. Hanigan and Votto are both above average, certainly. So if the Reds can put a lot of resources into getting an absolutely killer LF, then we have ourselves a team here.

-caveat: the Reds need to find a backup thirdbaseman, as well, or hope that one materializes out of Suttalecisco.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Sep 16, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Frazier is that guy if they would stop moving him all over the field

Not that he should be on the roster as a backup, but assuming you are referring to the inevitability that Rolen goes down, Frazier could come up from L’Ville and do quite nicely I bet.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Sep 16, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

So you're saying that baseball is evolving into soccer?

Where defense rules.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Sep 16, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Alonso, Roenicke, Stewart for Hanley

…ahh, shit.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Sep 16, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions

I would not put it past Bob and Walt

to hang on Dusty’s every word..

So if dusty wants Jannish we’ll prolly have him.
Jannish sat on the bench all year and apparently didn’t complain, he can bunt and plays a wicked defense. Dusty prolly respect Jannish for his ‘sacrifices’.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Sep 16, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

i feel like dusty lost power the day jacko was promoted

and dusty is probably losing prestige, and next year is a put up or shut up year for dusty.

The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.

by justin007000 on Sep 16, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like that's probably true in everyone's eyes but Bob's

Unfortunately he’s the one that matters most

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Sep 16, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think that Walt will discount Dusty that much

Dusty actually has a decent resume and Walt isn’t getting any young…Walt could easily fall into the trap of ‘this is we did it in 1983 and by God we’ll do that waay in 2010"

BTW – Jannish is frustrating – a doubles machine one night and useless at the plate the next.
I think the Reds will need more offense from the SS position…more than Jannish appears to be able to consistently provide.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Sep 16, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

bob is an impatient man

i mean he was quick to fire wayne and narron, why not Dusty?

The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.

by justin007000 on Sep 17, 2009 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Neither Wayne nor Narron were a 'Big Name'

Bob can be impatient but I think the he’s infatuated with rubbing elbows with ‘Big Name’ baseballers like Walt and Dusty.
Again I point to the fact that Walt, Bob and Dusty are from ‘back in the day’ when the game was ‘played the right way’. Plus Bob is not going to eat Dusty’s salary. Period. I believe you can take Dusty in 2010 to the bank.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Sep 17, 2009 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions