Is There A Reasonable Comp for Juan Francisco?

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 12:47 PM EDT in Features Comment 29 comments

Does anybody ROAR like El Nino Destructor?

Justin from Basement Dwellers has been trying to find a reasonable comparison to Juan Francisco via Twitter. He's received some suggestions but hasn't quite been able to lock in on a name just yet. The thing is that it looks like, based on his minor league numbers, Francisco is a truly unique player to make it to the Majors. That's probably overstating it a bit, but I have yet to find a player who walks less than 4% of the time while striking out over 20% in the minors who still makes it to the big leagues. They're not outrageous ratios to have in the big leagues, but typically players who have those sorts of rates in the majors performed much better in the minors.

So, the task for you is to try to come up with a reasonable comp for Juan Francisco. We're just looking at offensive numbers here, but we're trying to find players with seriously low walk rates, high strikeout rates, and good power. Here are some of the names that have been suggested so far with their minor and major league rates:

Potential Comparison Players for Juan Francisco
	Minors			Majors
Player	BB%	K%	SLG	BB%	K%	SLG
Juan Francisco	3.8%	23.4%	.482	?	?	?
Wily Mo Pena	6.6%	30.3%	.424	6.1%	30.1%	.447
Steve Balboni	11.7%	25.4%	.519	8.5%	24.9%	.451
Jeff Francoeur	5.7%	16.9%	.480	4.4%	17.8%	.429
Vladimir Guerrero	8.0%	9.6%	.585	8.8%	11.1%	.570
Alfonso Soriano	6.3%	17.3%	.468	5.8%	20.3%	.510
Kevin Kouzmanoff	8.5%	14.5%	.556	4.8%	19.1%	.435
Jay Bruce	8.4%	22.6%	.551	8.0%	22.0%	.449

Obviously this isn't definitive and every player travels their own path, but I think it's worthwhile to try to find comparable players early in a player's career to see if we can project those players out into the future. It's good to see that there are 2 or 3 good players on that list who have had good careers, but there is still a tough road ahead of Francisco. I don't mind the cup of coffee right now, but he still needs to make some serious progress with his plate discipline before I consider him to have a real shot at success in the Majors.

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Yeah, I missed way on on walk rates with Balboni, especially in the minors.

I guess Wily Mo fits better, but the strikeouts there are too high. Vladimir doesn’t strike out enough, and neither does Francouer. Pretty tough.

BTW, can we please put Francisco’s MLB strikeout rate at 100%? :)
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
Also: Beyond the Boxscore
Twittering: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Sep 15, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SLG %

Wily MoPena > Bruce? Ack.

"Plain and simple, I wake up in the morning and piss excellence"

by obc2 on Sep 15, 2009 12:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

No.

by Brendanukkah on Sep 15, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

narron'd

The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.

by justin007000 on Sep 15, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I never liked the Vlad comp

I think that’s a natural reaction for people who want a good player who has bad plate discipline. The thing is, Vlad doesn’t have bad plate discipline. He walks nearly as much as he strikes out.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wily Modesto....

heavens to Betsy.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Sep 15, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who does BP2K9 list as his top 4 comps?

"Plain and simple, I wake up in the morning and piss excellence"

by obc2 on Sep 15, 2009 12:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I looked at that, but it's hard to say because I don't believe they have updated since the start of the season

And that’s pretty important for a player his age. Here are the top 5:
Andujar Cedeno – 1991
Geronimo Berroa – 1987
Frank Valdez – 1990
Victor Diaz – 2003
Chris James – 1984

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I’m on a conference call, and someone just started their presentation with the old “Merriam Webster defines insight as…” Seriously?

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i'm sorry

you should leave that world and be a full time sabramatician. Follow your dream!!!

The Reds need a new manager, one like Putin.

by justin007000 on Sep 15, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least they didn't start with,

“Hark!” That would have been seriously old school.

by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Sep 15, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's 10X better on an introductory PowerPoint slide.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Sep 15, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there may have been a slide

but I didn’t log into the online meeting

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SRSLY

OED >> Merriam Webster

by ken on Sep 15, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

You were on a conference call with Tony Scalia?

I’m impressed.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Sep 15, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is tough

In Ron Kittle’s rookie year, he K’d 150 times (led league) against 39 walks. He also had 35 HRs and 22 doubles+triples. He never really cut down the strikeouts or increased the walks appreciably. He also never had as many PAs as he did in his rookie year. I don’t know if that’s due to injuries or performance related benchings.

by ken on Sep 15, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting choice

his minor league numbers don’t lineup much though: 11.1% BB; 23.0% K; .628 SLG

Dude hit 40 HR in about 450 PA in AA at the age of 23 and then hit 50 HR in about 550 PA in AAA at age 24. Damn.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is tough, but fun.

Many of the usual suspects — Pete Incaviglia, Dave Kingman, Greg Luzinski, Rob Deer — don’t fit. If you take away the power aspect, the closest guy I’ve found is the Reds’ very own Darrell Chaney — 21.9 percent whiff rate and 7 percent walk rate. Obviously, Chaney wasn’t a power hitter, though. I’ll keep looking.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Sep 15, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Have K rates increased in the minor leagues over the years?

Since we’re seeing more strikeouts and walks in the majors in comparision to the pre-strike era, I would expect the same to be true in the minors. It will be tougher to find a good comp for Francisco if that’s the case because he’s facing more strikeout pitchers than pitch to contact guys. This doesn’t explain his awful walk rates, though.

by ken on Sep 15, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

that’s mainly why I looked at more recent players (Balboni was Justin’s suggestion). Really, the hard part is finding someone who makes it to the Majors with such a low walk rate. I think I’ve found one though:

Pudge Rodriguez: 3.8% BB rate in the minors. Then again, he had a 13% K rate and a .370 slugging, so the comparison isn’t really there.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We have a winner ... almost.

Craig Brazell struck out 19 percent of the time (741 in 3,883 PA) and walked 4 percent (161 in 3,883). Brazell topped 30 home runs twice and bettered the 20-homer mark three other seasons. His MLB experience amounted to 40 plate appearances between the Royals and Mets.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Sep 15, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well, that's not very optimistic

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2.5% of El Nino Destructor's MLB career is already over!

by Brendanukkah on Sep 15, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Math geek

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Sep 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From a psychologist’s point of view, someone who hates being walked and strikes out at that 25-30% rate has a mind set that he can hit anything and everything. He might as well be blindfolded and get up there and swing his bat. You need hitting coaches that can calm these youngsters down and polish up their rough edges. Even if they are goatod, the over eagerness will kill them on hard sliders, knuckleballs, sweeping curveballs, etc. Simply mixing various speeds on fastballs will be enough to strike them out. If Francisco wants to stick around for good, learning to be patient at the plate is part of the game.

by Richard L on Sep 15, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it took you all that money and all that schooling

to figure that out? im impressed.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 15, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another overhyped player

With stats like these, why is he the talk of the town? Looks like yet another player that the Reds are hyping up that will bomb in the Majors.

by dragon43078 on Sep 16, 2009 6:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that his traditional stats are awesome

.295 avg, 27 HR, 93 RBI and since the media typically only evaluates players on those numbers, he looks like he’s primed and ready for the big time. I don’t think he’s going to be a complete flop, but I think he’ll have a hard time hitting .250 with those strikeout and walk rates. A lot more balls turn into outs in the majors than in the minors. His BABIP was over .400 in Louisville despite only having a 15% line drive rate.

For him to be successful in the majors, he has to continue to be a freak performer. Big league pitchers have a way of neutralizing freak performers.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Sep 16, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs