18 game capsule, take 8

Things I have been aware of regarding the Reds over the last few weeks: 1) they had a winning streak of some length; 2) they had a losing streak of some length.  That’s the list.  Having thus established my qualifications to write extensively about this team, let’s learn something together about the recent happenings of these so-called Redlegs.

2009 Reds, Capsule 8

Overview:

Wins/Losses: 10 - 8 (PSA), 65 - 79 (YTD)

Strength of Schedule: .490, YTD (12th most difficult in NL; 26th most difficult in ML) [Prev: .488 YTD SOS, 14th most difficult in NL; 28th most difficult in ML]

RPI (ESPN): .481, YTD (14th best in NL; 26th best in ML)

[Prev: .475 YTD RPI, 14th best in NL; 27th best in ML]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats, YTD): 0.0% [prev: 0.0%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on ELO concept): 0.0% [prev: 0.0%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats + PECOTA projections): 0.0% [prev: 0.0%]

Offense:

• For the period, hitters posted slash rates of .251/.332/.394, compared to league averages of .258/.329/.405.
• The 8 "regulars", as defined by those with the most plate appearances in this period were Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, McDonald, Gomes, Stubbs, and Balentien.  None of them posted PSA OPS's below 600.  The last time the Reds accomplished this "feat" was Period 2.  Coincidentally, this was also the last time the Reds had a winning record in one of these arbitrary 18-game periods.
• The gold star of offense is awarded to Brandon Phillips, who hit .391/.432/.580 to easily pace the team.  Runner-up honors go to Wladdy, with a .270/.372/.514 line, although in 31 fewer PA over the period.  As a rhetorical...why is McDonald ever getting AB's over Balentien?
• Drew Stubbs showed much improvement over his initial stretch of games (.273/.333/.455).  I'm a bit concerned about the OBP, but if the power continues, that will most certainly fly in centerfield.  Incidentally, Stubbs now has a YTD OPS of .713, which is identical to his 2009 OPS in Louisville.  The nature of minor league translations would seem to indicate his "true talent" level lying somewhere below what he's doing right now in Cincy, although he put up much better numbers in AAA-ball last year.  Nonetheless, his '09 numbers, including defense-which has been stellar-would suggest a 4-win improvement over Tavares.  This is not to say that Stubbs is the best option in center-field next year, but it does provide some sort of "idiot test" with respect to choosing between Stubbs and T-Virus.
• Period 8 saw the most walks (70) drawn in any period so far this year.  Votto contributed 13 of those by himself.
• That's nearly all Votto contributed, however, hitting .213/.351/.328, with only 1 HR and 22 K.

Pitching:

• A second consecutive strong showing by the pitchers (PSA ERA of 3.72 vs. league average of 4.02)
• Leading the way were three starting pitchers-Arroyo, Bailey, and Cueto-who threw down ERA's of 1.91, 2.49, and 2.76, respectively.
• A little more color on Johnny Cueto: 16.1 IP over 3 starts, 10 hits, 6 BB, 17 K.  Plus he hit three guys just to show who's boss.
• The clock gets a bit closer to midnight for Justin Lehr, who after a PSA ERA of 7.64 now has a YTD ERA of 4.93.
• Micah Owings, easing back into duty, threw 7 innings over 3 relief appearances, only giving up 1 run in the process.  Perhaps Owings can be a shut down swing man, and this will be the best utilization of his skills, although 7 meager innings is hardly sufficient data to tell.  He was not, however, used at all as a pinch-hitter during this period, amassing 3 PA via his pitching appearances.  Because of Owings's marginal status as a starting pitcher, optimizing his talents will always be a tough call, and will require creativity that may not currently be present.  If he's truly a good reliever, do you risk using him as a PH while taking away a bullpen option?  Do you only insert him in situations where he can do both, the leverage of the situation be damned?  Using the RC/G stat, Owings has virtually identical value on offense as Phillips, Dickerson, and Nix, although the four certainly get to that point in very different ways.  And the obvious and necessary caveat is that Owings has posted his numbers in a significantly smaller sample.  The data that is there, however, suggests a quality hitter that should be called upon, especially given the dearth of right-handed power options on this team.

The next 18:

• 12 games at home, 6 on the road
• 14 of the 18 against divisional opponents
• 3 of the 18 against presumptive 2009 playoff teams
• .479 average winning percentage (2009) for the teams in the next 18 games.
• Sweet, sweet off-season relief
• If I were GM: first, do no harm.  Johnny Cueto, hit the showers, we'll see you in February.  Votto and Rolen are among the most fragile (for different reasons), and are among the most critical in 2010.  They should play sparingly for the remainder of the season.  Juan Francisco and Pedro Viola are the only two September call-ups-let ‘em play.
• Milestone watch: Brandon Phillips has 88 RBI, giving him a decent shot at an even 100, which for a hitter with a sub-800 OPS on a team on pace to score 641 runs is clearly indicative of something, although I'm not sure what.  Also, Jay Bruce is 2 HR away from 20, Arroyo is 2 wins away from 15, CoCo is 5 saves away from 40, and most excitingly-Willy Tavares is just 6 hits away from Triple Effing Digits.