Red Reposter - 8/7/09
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 7, 2009 1:22 PM EDT
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Thanks to jsl413 for this one
USA Today's Bob Nightengale interviewed RR Heartthrob Joey Votto. Here's a tidbit:
"One thing I'd say to President Obama: Well, he's not my president since I'm Canadian. I'd just say, "Best of luck."
What's the best part about playing in Cincinnati? "It's just nice playing with most of the guys you came up with in the minors. Everyone is close because we know each other so well. Hopefully that will help us on the field, too. It's a great group of guys, and we have a lot of fun together, especially when we're winning." -
Mark Sheldon took questions from the audience
and since we talked about this last night on our RR call-in show, here's what Sheldon had to say about the Reds adding another starter now that Edinson Volquez is out for next year: "I would think it'd be necessary to at least explore the market for an established starter. Assuming no one else is dealt or injured, the Reds currently have Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Micah Owings and Homer Bailey coming back next season. None of them have been consistently solid this season. At Triple-A Louisville, Matt Maloney, Travis Wood, Sam LeCure and others are waiting in the wings, but to have any shot at contending, it'd be essential for the Reds to have a dependable veteran innings-eater they can count on in the top portion of the rotation." -
The loss of Hall o' Famer Hal is a real blow to Reds fans in general and the Reposter here in particular
but at least we still have the Fay. He gives us this absolute gem regarding the latest homestand: "It could have been worse. The Reds could have lost to the Chicago Cubs Wednesday and gone on the road after a 1-9 homestand. About the only good thing you can say about a 2-8 homestand is it wasn’t a 1-9 homestand." -
Craig Calcaterra of Shysterball had this to say regarding Justin Lehr
"Justin Lehr? Really? The same Justin Lehr making his second career start at the age of 32? The same Justin Lehr who hadn't previously pitched in the majors since 2006, and was really, really bad when he did that? The same Justin Lehr who the Reds signed in 2007, sold to the freakin' Korean league, signed again with the Reds later in the year, was let go again and allowed to sign with the Phillies, then the Reds traded for AGAIN back in May? The same Justin Lehr who had someone updating his Wikipedia page with news of this shutout against the Cubs (CG SHO, 4 H, 4K, 1BB) mere minutes after the game went final? For Pete's sake, you gotta love baseball." -
Per the Fay
Justin Lehr is the first Red to throw a shutout in either his 1st or 2nd career start since Charlie Leibrandt did it back in 1980. That's a long time ago. -
Jinaz has his newest power rankings up over at BtB
and the Reds have fallen all the way to the bottom. Take a drink fellas and chicks. -
Jon Paul Morosi of FOX sports says the Blue Jays arent paying any of Scott Rolen's salary for next year
So according to him, the Reds are on the hook for the full $11 mil. I dont know who to believe anymore, but it would be damn nice if Walt just came out and gave us the specifics. What would it hurt?
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Which one is worse?
(Judged at the time of the trade, without the aid of 20-20 hindsight)
Was EdE + Zach Stewart + Josh Roenicke for Scott Rolen (with no money for next year) worse than The Trade?
And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...
by Paul Householder on Aug 7, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
(Judged at the time of the trade, without the aid of 20-20 hindsight)
i would say this is worse. i was one of the few people i know who was in favor of The Trade because it got us 2 ML-ready bullpen arms (bray was a 1st rd pick too). i wish royce clayton wasn’t part of the deal because we could have used aurilia at SS. but our bullpen needed help and we were in a playoff race. i was not bummed about giving up kearns and wagner, in fact i hated how overrated they both were. lopez was my guy, but i was able to get over it pretty quickly.
i’m a bigger EE fan than i was of anyone in The Trade and i am not a big fan of trading pitching for position players. plus the timing of this trade could not be worse, and we might be on the hook for a big chunk of salary. i wanted roenicke to be our closer of the future and i heard nothing but amazing things about zach stewart.
so yeah, i’d say this one is worse without the aid of 20-20 hindsight.
I think if the Jays are kicking in $6.25MM and
sending Zach Stewart back to us, it’s a good trade.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, all by way of saying I don't think it's as bad as The Trade
depending on how much money the Jays coughed up. If the Reds somehow managed exact enough payment to neutralize Rolen’s salary, then I think the only glaring mistake was sending Zach Stewart. That could bite them. Regradless of the financials though, it’s fraught with risk and uncertainty at this point, which makes it hard to say that’s it’s a really bad trade on its face. It’s a play to compete next year – which is looking like an increasingly unlikely outcome – and a gamble on an injury prone guy who’ll be 35 next year.
If Rolen has a career year in 2010 and EdE flounders in Toronto, Walt looks like a genius. If Zach Stewart comes up in 2011 and becomes #2 to Roy Halladay, it looks bad again.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
well yeah...
if it turns out that the Jays are forking over $$ then it’s a lot more palatable, but at the time of the trade it didn’t appear they would send cash (still doesn’t depending on who you talk to).
If Rolen has a career year in 2010 and EdE flounders in Toronto, Walt looks like a genius. If Zach Stewart comes up in 2011 and becomes #2 to Roy Halladay, it looks bad again.
that requires us to use hindsight which was not allowed in this assignment :)
Right
So regardless of hypothetical outcomes, think the risk involved makes it a bad trade, but certainly not as bad as The Trade seemed at the time. I like Edwin, but don’t see him as the future of the organization. At the time, the Trade seemed almost catastrophic.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm of the opinion that you can't really judge trades in hindsight or after X number of years. The best judgement is made at the time of the trade.
Mainly because there are so many unkowns that even the most genius GM couldn’t predict.
Let’s take The Trade.
Factors I’ve heard discussed since then on who won:
Reds won the deal:
1) Austin didn’t amount to anything (no way Wayne predicted this, and even if he did, was it a sure bet? His age and previous performance meant there was more expected potential there.)
2) Felipe wanted too much money in the offseason and wasn’t going to/didn’t stay good (maybe Krivsky knew his salary demands and couldn’t/wouldn’t meet them, but that’s not a basis for winning a trade. Also, he was a young offensive SS, there’s a TON of potential there regardless of what happened.)
3) We got Darryl Thompson (looked like a great pickup last June….now, not so much….but maybe in a year he’s a good bullpen guy….who knows)
Nats won:
1) Gary Majewski was damaged goods (I’m not convinced the Nats knew this…if they did that’s not winning the trade, that’s being unethical.) There’s no way either side could have predicted he’d be such a disaster…he had been a dominant bullpen arm up to that point.
2) Bray has been injured and hasn’t lived up to his potential (no one can predict most injuries, and he could still come back and be a good bullpen arm for years to come….will we wait 3-4 more years before deciding if it was a good deal?)
3) The prospects included (besides Thompson) haven’t amounted to anything. (not sure anyone thought they would, but even still, there might have been potential there)
4) Royce Clayton sucked for Cincy (Ok, nevermind, everyone could’ve predicted that one)
The point is, so much in baseball is left to luck and the vagaries of fate that you can’t wait to see how the players do to judge trades. You really have to look at the potential future performance of the players involved, because that’s what the GMs are basing their decisions on.
Will Stewart become a great #2 starter? Maybe, maybe not, but he has the potential to be that, relatively soon. Will Roenicke become a closer? Same deal. Will Rolen get hurt or OPS .850 next year? Who knows, but both are possible. I don’t think we have to wait to see what happens with all of that to judge the trade.
IMO, the potential value we gave up FAR outweighs the potential value we got back. Ergo, trade lost.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
i still wish we would have given Krivsky more time...
he was seemingly reckless at times but he didn’t do anything, imo, that warranted his dismissal. i was a big fan.
i agree
he seemed like he was coming into his own, despite the whole 3 catcher thing again last year.
Bloop
he hired dusty..
signed Cormier & stinkton to two year expensive deals…
you are forgetting a lot in your revisionist reviews of sweaterpants
prosecution rests
Nobody listens to Andrew
Dusty was Bob's signing, Krivsky indicated it wasn't his decision
His biggest mistakes were signing pitchers to long contracts too soon (Arroyo, relievers)
But without him we wouldn’t have Volquez, BP, Arroyo (who has been fairly valuable), and in light of recent events, it should be noted that he didn’t trade away Bruce, Homer, Cueto, or Votto.
Plus, he understood the need for a small market team to operate like the Twins and build from the ground up. Walt definitely doesn’t understand that.
Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry
he wasn't perfect (and i know you're not implying that),
but even when we were losing i felt like he had a plan.
that' s what I think
I always had the feeling that while he was asst. GM, he always said to himself, “well, if I ran a team, I would do X, Y and Z” and then he went out and did them. Jocketty seems to just be watching the sunset in Cincinnati.
To this day, the angriest I’ve been as a Reds fan was the day Krivsky was fired. I thought it was the sort of bush-league maneuver that would leave the Reds in the basement for a few years. So far…
every gm makes blunders
but i felt like in the long run he had a plan.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Aug 8, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree with most of this,
but it assumes that we’re operating with the same knowledge as GMs, which I think is a mistake. With Felipe, for instance, personal demons may well have affected how he played in the ensuing years. If Krivsky accounted for those in deciding to sell high, bully for him. Likewise, with Bray maybe Washington saw something in his delivery that they thought would lead to his shoulder problems. So they were able to sell high on a young LHP with good numbers to date.
Gary Majewski was damaged goods (I’m not convinced the Nats knew this… if they did that’s not winning the trade, that’s being unethical
I think the Reds did file a grievance and nothing happened. It’s only a foul if the ref blows the whistle.
Of course, the worst part of The Trade was that it was designed but failed to help the bullpen for the stretch run. Acquiring a minor league reliever and one of the most overworked bullpen arms in baseball was a bad idea. At the time and in retrospect.
by ken on Aug 7, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
True about GMs knowing more than us, but still,
using that extra knowledge, GMs should make trades based on potential.
I understand also that there are exceptions to this. If the Reds are close to winning the division next year and need one more good starter to get them there, I wouldn’t worry so much about giving away a bunch of good players for a good starter, because the value (a division title) that would bring to Cincy and their fans would be huge.
That’s what makes the Rolen trade so disgusting. It smacks of giving up too much for a guy because he’s the last piece of the puzzle, when in reality we’re still so far away.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
The most relevant judgment is made at the time of the trade
as it represents an assessment of all the information available that causes the trade to actually take place. I don’t think I ever claimed that future unknowns would be a determining factor- that falls under “risk,” which I think is something GMs try to manage across multiple transactions.
I think you got hung up on this line:
If Rolen has a career year in 2010 and EdE flounders in Toronto, Walt looks like a genius. If Zach Stewart comes up in 2011 and becomes #2 to Roy Halladay, it looks bad again.
I think all I’m calling attention to here is perceptions. However, there’s no way you can argue that a trade can’t be judged in hindsight. “The Trade” is a case in point – seemingly terrible at the time, but nothing to get worked up about now that it’s shaken out. As much as we like to view players as a static, you also have to allow for a little bit of mysticism – scouting assessments and informed opinion.. Maybe there’s something to the fact that a scout says someone like Kearns isn’t what he appears. I’m as cold and analytical as the next basement dweller, but I also don’t like to rule things out. Sure, there’s no way for me to test this other than anecdotally, but he ended up flaming out and the trade doesn’t look like the catastrophe it did.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't really posting that at you as much as just making a general statement that fit the discussion
I agree that in hindsight we’re not so bummed about The Trade. I also agree that scouting and informed opinion make a difference, but to me that goes into the GMs knowledge that we don’t have regarding a players potential. future value.
I’m just thinking in terms of deciding a “winner” and “loser”. That can really only be done at the time of the trade, and I would argue we “lost” The Trade and the Rolen deal because we gave up more potential value than we got.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
i hear ya, but i respectfully disagree.
EE may not have been the future but neither is Rolen and there was zero urgency on our end to get this deal done. it accomplishes nothing (assuming we don’t win this year or next), and we actually end up losing on so many levels.
again, i liked The Trade at the time because it addressed a need in the time of a playoff hunt. it showed me that Wayne was acting in good faith to make our team better where we needed help. if compared to the Rolen trade, none of those positives apply, only negatives. even if Rolen does have a career year, his salary hamstrung us into being cheapskates in the offseason so no FA SS, LF, or SP.
I would certainly never claim that Rolen is the future
Simply that what we lost in Edwin didn’t compare to the perceived loss of Lopez and Kearns – top 50 hitters at the time who seemed likely to be All Stars for at least a couple seasons.
I don’t think we’ll find any common ground if you liked the trade at the time. It was absolutely terrible at the time. Three years on it does look like a “push” as the CincinnatiKid states. Lopez is a league average 2B and Thompson and Bray still have futures as decent bullpen guys.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly my point (above)
What we gave up in Kearns and Lopez had the potential to be WAAAAAY more than the potential offered by Bray, Thompson, and Majewski put together. The fact that none of them has reached that potential is moot.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
We're in total agreement about The Trade I think,
but I wouldn’t say that information moot. I think you have to allow for the possibility that there’s some useful intel saying Edwin or Kearns are unlikely to reach their potential. This is why the concept of “selling high” exists. The Trade strikes me as a pretty massive failure on any conceivable level, but while I think the Reds “lost” the Rolen deal on balance, I do think it was more rational. They think Edwin’s career arc doesn’t make him a long-term solution. Ok. So Rolen is an upgrade who can step in for a year. What I don’t understand is the capital – in the form of both Zach Stewart and Rolen’s paycheck.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Edwin for Rolen with no money changing hands seems pretty fair (maybe even in Reds favor, even with the additional salary)
The potential value of Roenicke and Stewart makes it very uneven. Regardless of money issues, a team like the Reds needs as many good cheap players as they can get, and they just potentially gave 3 away.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Maybe eternally being one year and a couple
players away is as much a marketing strategy by mgmt as it is a delusion. The PR nightmare caused by blowing up the team Pirates-style is a price they’re unwilling to pay, so the useful un-truth of being on the verge of competition is their MO. The organization would be better served by hanging on to Stewarts and Roenickes, but I wonder what kind of crisis of confidence what occur if they had decided to ship out BP, Harang and others – which they would almost certainly have to do if they went into full rebuilding mode.
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting thought
Methinks it certainly would cause disdain and panic amongst the average fan, but I think Bob is just too damn impatient to do that, and too ignorant to realize we’re not really that close.
If he was patient he would’ve stuck with Krivsky.
Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry
Me too
I don’t like the idea that they think they can with the current roster.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
I could be snarky here
but I won’t be, because even I weary of it. But, there are ways to improve this team that don’t require a ton of money which might bring them closer to league average at SS and LF, while a Rolen, Phillips, Bruce, Votto line-up would be nice.
To complete, they would have to be remarkable healthy, ‘cause there’s no depth, but with the right moves, they could win 85
A couple I saw on BTF:
- Scott Rolen and the scout who signed him. It shouldn’t be that much of a surprise given his athleticism and his home state, but Rolen apparently was talked out of going to UGA on a basketball scholarship. The scout worked for Major League Baseball, not any particular club, and sent a report to all teams about Rolen. Jasper, Ind. may not exactly be in Cincinnati’s back yard, but you’d think the Reds would’ve sent someone out there to take a look at Rolen.
“Absolutely,” Josh Willingham said. “The best athlete played shortstop. Did you play short?”
I said I did, which was actually true.
“Then your team had to suck,” Dunn pointed out, which was also true.
Dunn also explained why he and Willingham shake hands like men after HRs:
“Everybody else’s got that high-five-jive stuff, that ain’t me. Ryan’s got the little high-five,” Dunn continued, waving his hand limply in the air. “Everyone does that. This is shake my hand like a man, like you’ve been there before.”
Maybe not far worse, but...
The Trade only bothered me at the time because of Lopez going, the guy had been an all-star only a year or so before, and I thought he still might be in the future (at that point anyways). I cared none for Wagner, and Kearns I felt had hit his ceiling and then fell back down a peg or two. We also received a solid assortment for them, well, other than Clayton. I thought Harris and Thompson were fairly decent pieces, and Bray was the key to it all. In hindsight of course, the trade was mostly a push. Lopez is a journeyman infielder, Kearns is still sucking it up, and Wagner is selling used cars I hear.
I look for Stewart to be a stud starter, it will probably make my rage boil over, but then again it might not. If it makes Reds ownership and front office realize the mistake they made and prevents them from doing it again, it be a small consolation.
No crapping way they're not paying part of his salary next year
Right?
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
it was reported
That the Jays were paying the Reds an unknown amount of cash as part of the deal, in addition to paying the rest of Rolen’s salary this year, and the bonus he’s due next year.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
So where exactly does John Paul Morosi get off?
(knock em down, gentlemen)
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 7, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
In his cubicle, surprisingly
So many different things have been reported about the money I’m not believing anyone except Walt or JP at this point.
The lowest amount I had heard was 4 million, so the amount Morosi states (3.2) seems unrealistic.
BubbaFan, I’m pretty sure the Cardinals are paying his bonus next year.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
yep
it was part of the deal that sent him to Toronto
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Will there still be pleasure in that
if they make the WS this year then re-sign Holliday in the offseason?
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
sure
and signing Holliday, which I think is doubtful, might be great for everyone in the NL central. He’ll be very expensive.
Walt can't come out and say how much the BJs are paying
since that would mean he’d lose the superior bargaining position from which he’s obviously working.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Yeah they can't reveal the truth to the public
That would cause too much criticism and would be counter-productive to owners’ objective of fooling their fans into thinking they’re really trying to win. Sad, but isn’t thy the truth?
by Brian B on Aug 7, 2009 6:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i kinda wished sports teams were publicly-traded
then everrything would be out in the open. But then again, what would we then have to talk about??
"Live every week like it's shark week. And dress everyday like you're gonna get murdered in those clothes." - Tracey Jordan
by RedinWrigleyville on Aug 7, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions
How Reds' stock just hit 35 cents a share.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Fay tweets: chairholders assert fedouchery duty claim
by ken on Aug 7, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for finding a way to use the word douche
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
I'm so glad you included "the word" in there
"I heard he punched Cowboy in the face, grabbed his own balls and said: 'Clutch this.'" ~ obc
by Ash on Aug 7, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn, two in a row
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
damnable editors
What’s the best part about playing in Cincinnati? “It’s just nice playing with most of the guys you came up with in the minors. Everyone is close because we know each other so well. Hopefully that will help us on the field, too. It’s a great group of guys, and we have a lot of fun together, especially when we’re winning. I would imagine”
Will you stop it with the vegetables
There are some interesting things going on with waiver trades and claims today
Alex Rios was supposedly claimed on waivers, the claiming team is still a secret.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4384253
"My brain is almost the size of normal human being," he said. "Almost. Real pleased with that." -Scott Rolen
That is CRAZY risky
If I’m the Jays and I can’t work out a trade, I let him go
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
That can't possibly be us,
right? Although that Rolen trade really makes me wonder what else is going to happen before next year…
Man I hope not
Surely even Bob and Walt wouldn’t add 62 million over the next five years.
Although maybe Walt will convince JP to send Stewart back in return for taking on Rios’ salary.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
My Sources say...
It is the Reds. They have offered Willy Taveras in exchange for significant salary relief. My double-secret™ source says that the Blue Jay’s are seriously considering the deal.
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
by BobbyO on Aug 7, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Propogating the rumor
Does anybody who already belongs to the Blue Jay’s SBNation site have an interest in reposting this and freaking some people out?
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
You sir, are evil
But I like that about you
"Even if he is average, I’d still take him over Willyevergetonbase Taveras." - Randy in Chatt on redsminorleagues.com
by RedsMasochist on Aug 7, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
"It's a great group of guys, and we have a lot of fun together, especially when we're winning."
SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT
I can see you're not going to agree with me, so let's move on. - Bill Maher
by PeteyHendrix on Aug 7, 2009 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
How about Rios getting claimed on Waivers!
Rumor has it, ChiSox or SF claimed him and Toronto might let him walk to save the money.
that's really surprising about smoltz...
didn’t he just pitch well? i don’t follow the Sox too much…
Nice reposter
The Votto article was particularly fun. I’m glad it settled the all important “X-Box or PS3” question. However, it left the “PSP or DS” one up in the air.
PS3 and PSP
It’s not even really close. I can call people from my PSP, and the PS3 is vastly superior if you have a decent TV.
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
plus you can watch porn on it
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
by Slyde on Aug 7, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
lineup
Willy Taveras cf
Alex Gonzalez ss
Joey Votto 1b
Brandon Phillips 2b
Scott Rolen 3b
Wladimir Balentien rf
Jonny Gomes lf
Ryan Hanigan c
Homer Bailey p
for fuck’s sake…
Well...
At least Dusty is starting to be consistent… right?
Anyone have any doubts that we get swept this weekend? I’m really just hoping Joey gets a hit in the 1st so that we don’t get no-hit tonight.
by wishfuldrifter on Aug 7, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm vacillating between rage and despair at the thought that Dusty will most likely return in 2010
Why God? What did Reds fans do to make you punish us so!
"Even if he is average, I’d still take him over Willyevergetonbase Taveras." - Randy in Chatt on redsminorleagues.com
by RedsMasochist on Aug 7, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Pete Rose. Marge Schott.
Our God is a vengeful God, and those two bad apples had it comin’ in a way that no amount of Taubensees or Claussens could make up for.
by Cy Schourek on Aug 7, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wait ...
1917 … next title 2005
1990 … 2078
Fuck you, God.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Aug 7, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be afraid of a no-hit weekend
If anyone but Zito was pitching tomorrow.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
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